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[Lothars]

Just like Elite controllers were going to rot in a warehouse because no one is going to spend $200 on a controller...

2) Power does matter. 3rd party games are what sell consoles. We'll have to see how it works out for them. X isn't going to be their main seller and even Microsoft knows this. Thanks for reminding everyone though.


4) No, they haven't eroded all of their NA/UK/AUS/whatever dominance. They're still doing fine in these territories and continue to improve. The X will drop in price as the S has and still will. The S is still going to be the main seller just like the base PS4 is. Really, they have really turned around the Xbox One more than I could have imagined.

5) And eroded their XBL superiority? How exactly? Still the best service on consoles by a large margin.

2) Power does matter to a point but it matters less when the price is more than the competitors by a decent margin. The power also matters more at the beginning of a generation and not in the middle of one and It will sell out for the first few months but I don't see it continuing long term but your right microsoft doesn't seem to see that either.

4) They have erroded the vast majority of the dominance because of issues like price and you may not believe it but price is a big deal. They have very few territories that they matter in and it's a big unknown if they can make a difference.

5)XBL has regressed more than anything, it's definitely no longer the top service by a wide margin. It was pretty great in the 360 for reliablity but now it's definitely pretty bad and I definitely am not the only one that feels that way.

 

[FacelessSamurai]

2) Power does matter to a point but it matters less when the price is more than the competitors by a decent margin. The power also matters more at the beginning of a generation and not in the middle of one and It will sell out for the first few months but I don't see it continuing long term but your right microsoft doesn't seem to see that either.

4) They have erroded the vast majority of the dominance because of issues like price and you may not believe it but price is a big deal. They have very few territories that they matter in and it's a big unknown if they can make a difference.

5)XBL has regressed more than anything, it's definitely no longer the top service by a wide margin. It was pretty great in the 360 for reliablity but now it's definitely pretty bad and I definitely am not the only one that feels that way.

Show me how Xbox live has regressed, because honestly it actually feels like it's better than it has ever been! I've never heard anyone talk about how it has regressed.

 

[MetalliCabombination]

Show me how Xbox live has regressed, because honestly it actually feels like it's better than it has ever been! I've never heard anyone talk about how it has regressed.

I dunno... early gen 360 was really fkn great.
Gears and forza felt hot and fresh, they had plenty of japanese games and those great summer indie games. There was also less mainstream stuff like alan wake.
Aside from maybe ori, cuphead and sunset, i dont even feel like theyve tried this gen.
It doesn't help that halo, gears forza arent nearly as exciting anymore. Offcourse scalebound , fable and phantom dust being cancelled doesn't help. Not to mention the slump their first party assembly line is in rnow.

 

[commedieu]

You know, it's hypocritical to focus on these people when there are a whole bunch of people who have spent 4 years claiming that tech differences didn't matter, but now that the Xbox One X is coming they suddenly do matter.

More so than games even. Literally.

Crazy to watch.

 

[Fredrik]

Basically this, and it's a little weird to see DF saying they have no idea who the target market is.

Eurogamer, not Digital Foundry. It would be hilarious if DF didn't understand who this console is for when it's the exact same group of people that read their faceoff articles. It's made for those that want the best of the best what console gaming can give you. The highest resolution, the best framerate, the most advanced effects etc. No difference can be too small.

 

[Lothars]

Show me how Xbox live has regressed, because honestly it actually feels like it's better than it has ever been! I've never heard anyone talk about how it has regressed.

The main things I see it in is trying to play with tons of friends but party issues random disconnections, random times someone will just be unable to hear the group without leaving and coming back. Parties are an issue since launch.

People being randomly disconnected for no reason in the middle of a game with no rhyme or reason and having to rejoin.

I play gears most friday nights mainly private matches and me or someone in my group runs into issues. It's why I am saying that XBL to me has regressed since the xbox one it never has worked as well as it did on the 360.

 

[anothertech]

To "hide" exclusives for the sake of the XB1X launch means also to "hide" XB1 exclusives till very close to release window.

For mid-gen consoles, the exclusives are shared between the OG and upgraded version anyway, so it makes limited sense to try and ride a faux-hype by delaying game announcements.

Nah, announcing a few games 6 months before launch isn't unheard of. That's always what Nintendo does isn't it?

I mean, maybe not huge AAA games but maybe a Rare remake, Battletoads, and somthing decent to kick off the 'Most Powerful Console Ever Made' ya know?

I don't think that was blowing up my expectations. But apparently it was none the less.

 

[almostjuliuscaesar]

I can't imagine they'll lose a huge amount from the R&D, especially if any of the X architecture lays the foundation for the next console, albeit with updated silicon.

the thing is, whereas the pro is really just a PS4 with some hot sauce, this thing was built like a new console but then they slapped the old CPU in it. if it's the basis of the next, they played their cards too early. if it isn't, the xbox division doesn't then even more reason this was a bad idea

 

[Nightengale]

So many different takes in this thread on the different weight placement and valuation of exclusives; power, etc etc...

At the end of the day, it boils down to "value."

The value of launching with more exclusives didn't outweigh the value of being "cheaper and more powerful" at launch.

The value of "more powerful" didn't come close before the value of "$50-80 cheaper and bundled with 2 Assassin Creed games."

The value of "multiple under-performing Xbox first-party games" didn't matter before "one extremely successful Sony first-party game" in terms of pushing units. And vice-versa.

I mean, the above is more nuanced than I put it, but the reality is games like Tomorrow Children, Dance Central, Powerstar Golf, Kill Strain etc, even if you put it in a "list" to pad out quantity of releases... ultimately one highly desirable and momentum-driving game matters more to selling consoles than 5 mediocre A/AA exclusives that nobody likes.

We don't know right now...

Whether or not the value of XB1X is deeply meaningly to the broader audience.

It is "more powerful, but also more expensive." Time will tell if $100 is a deal-breaker or not.

 

[Doc_Drop]

I genuinely had no idea Cuphead was coming out on Steam until watching the Gamescom presentation. I guess I had figured it was locked in on Windows10/Xbox and never bothered to check.

 

[Fredrik]

It is "more powerful, but also more expensive." Time will tell if $100 is a deal-breaker or not.

It'll matter for the mainstream, there is no way they'll choose the more expensive X over the cheaper S. No way. But it won't matter for the enthusiasts. Some bought the S at launch just to get 3fps extra in some games. Some pay $2000 just to get low input lag on their TV. Some will jump in day 1 on both the Pro and X just to have "the best of the best" no matter where the games are. $100 is nothing.
Only question is, how big is this enthusiast group? At this board I imagine it's quite big but in the grand scale of things I think it's tiny. The upside for MS is that this group is usually very loud, that's why 900p and the DRM thingy was such a big deal, so if MS can get this group to flock around X then it'll definitely be a PR win for them in the long run even if it sells badly.

 

[Nightengale]

It'll matter for the mainstream, there is no way they'll choose the more expensive X over the cheaper S. No way. But it won't matter for the enthusiasts. Some bought the S at launch just to get 3fps extra in some games. Some pay $2000 just to get low input lag on their TV. Some will jump in day 1 on both the Pro and X just to have "the best of the best" no matter where the games are. $100 is nothing.
Only question is, how big is this enthusiast group? At this board I imagine it's quite big but in the grand scale of things I think it's tiny. The upside for MS is that this group is usually very loud, that's why 900p and the DRM thingy was such a big deal, so if MS can get this group to flock around X then it'll definitely be a PR win for them in the long run even if it sells badly.

XB1S did better than I thought it'd do at launch, my guess for now is the XB1S launch numbers + 50-80%, give or take.

There's no doubt in my mind that there is a core group of several million core Xbox fans and the X will sell to them. I just don't know if that group is... 2 million strong or 5 million strong. Or a different number altogether.

 

[louis89]

Anyone else feel like Sea of Thieves could become a viral sleeper hit?

 

[Fukuzatsu]

Anyone else feel like Sea of Thieves could become a viral sleeper hit?

I mean, based on what? I feel like I've heard barely anything about it other than it being some kind of multiplayer game about pirates.

 

[Big Blue]

Well its sold out everywhere so I guess so I guess this sales pitch didn't fall flat after all

Without numbers, it's inconclusive. I remember when it was pretty much impossible to buy a Pixel phone for months, but it turns out that they barely sold a million.

 

[ElMexiMerican]

Anyone else feel like Sea of Thieves could become a viral sleeper hit?

I want it to do well, it looks so much fun; I have heard no actual talk about it though aside from hardcore gaming enthusiasts. My friends didn't know about it, other gamers who I know haven't heard of it, and I feel like at least some of them would be interested in such a game. Honestly it'll depend on when it actually releases. If it's too close to Red Dead 2 (or if anything releases too early to it honestly), it's dead in the water because the vast majority of people will be playing RDR Online.

 

[Fredrik]

XB1S did better than I thought it'd do at launch, my guess for now is the XB1S launch numbers + 50-80%, give or take.

There's no doubt in my mind that there is a core group of several million core Xbox fans and the X will sell to them. I just don't know if that group is... 2 million strong or 5 million strong. Or a different number altogether.

Hard to tell how much it'll sell but 2 million sounds super low imo. The enthusiast console gamer group don't care if it says Nintendo, Sony or Microsoft on the box, they probably already have all consoles and they just want the best, so you'll see that X has a far wider appeal than just among the core Xbox fans. Where does this group want to play the upcoming Assassin's Creed, Red Dead Redemption 2, Far Cry 5, The Crew 2? My guess is Xbox One X.
I think if the multiplat devs start to demo games on Xbox One X over PS4 Pro then we know it's a success, at least for the Xbox brand. But PS4 has such a huge lead that I doubt it'll happen unless MS has the marketing deal as with AC.

 

[Fukuzatsu]

Hard to tell how much it'll sell but 2 million sounds super low imo. The enthusiast console gamer group don't care if it says Nintendo, Sony or Microsoft on the box, they probably already have all consoles and they just want the best, so you'll see that X has a far wider appeal than just among the core Xbox fans. Where does this group want to play the upcoming Assasin's Creed, Red Dead Redemption 2, Far Cry 5, The Crew 2? My guess is Xbox One X.
I think if the multiplat devs start to demo games on Xbox One X over PS4 Pro then we know it's a success, at least for the Xbox brand. But PS4 has such a huge lead that I doubt it'll happen unless MS has the marketing deal as with AC.

I mean assume this does about as well as the PS4 Pro sales-wise (and you really shouldn't, Xbox is a non-starter in too many international markets for that to make sense), and it will manage to get out around a 1/5th of total Xbox sales. So, optimistically, around 6~8 million seems fair.

 

[Fredrik]

I mean assume this does about as well as the PS4 Pro sales-wise (and you really shouldn't, Xbox is a non-starter in too many international markets for that to make sense), and it will manage to get out around a 1/5th of total Xbox sales. So, optimistically, around 6~8 million seems fair.

I don't think it'll reach Pro numbers, that sounds too optimistic, maybe if the enthusiasts starts to really boast about it on the boards and it becomes the obvious choice for multiplats but as you say it's not a world-wide platform in the same way as PS4 so that will lower the sales figure a bit.

 

[Fukuzatsu]

I don't think it'll reach Pro numbers, that sounds too optimistic, maybe if the enthusiasts starts to really boast about it on the boards and it becomes the obvious choice for multiplats but as you say it's not a world-wide platform in the same way as PS4 so that will lower the sales figure a bit.

Right. In essence, without being optimistic, 3.5~5 million is more realistic.

It doesn't help that it's looking like XBX might have less games with X-patches than there are games with Pro-patches, if only because of the gap in time between the release of each and developers' willingness to go back and change things.

 

[AmyS]

The comments on the last page about Microsoft not knowing what Sony was planning with PS4 (and the reverse has been true in the past) makes me wish that could go even further next generation (whether its Sony or Microsoft) by going with different technology / hardware providers, like Nvidia and/or Intel, even though its unlikely and putting aside backward compatibility. Right now PS4, Xbox One, PS4 Pro and Xbox One X are all based on the same basic Jaguar and GCN architectures. It would certainly make things more fun and more interesting if one of the next gen systems used Nvidia's next architecture after Volta, and/or an Intel CPU, or dare I say it, a Knight's Landing accelerator or its successor. Or something new and interesting that really advances basic processing and/or graphics rendering.

Just thinking aloud, and a little drunk.

 

[Nightengale]

Of the three spring games that Xbox has, Sea of Thieves is the one with the most footage, impressions, buzz and potential for success.

On top of that, its genre, new IP, etc etc also does mean it has the biggest chance to grow organically, rather than established franchises finding a second wind/growth.

That being said, there are some challenges:

1. For a game that has been announced since 2015, and made playable in some shape or form for a long time, its buzz is not very high. Yes, granted, the alpha has NDAs that prevent and limit impressions, but anecdotally it's not... very big.

2. The game gets very positive and glowing impressions from the press. But the social metrics for SoT hits its high at E3/etc, but dips back to low-to-mediocre interest/hype level on places like Google Trends after E3 high. It could mean nothing, but these are sometimes signs where there is audience and critic disconnect for games, where people aren't talking about it outside conference buzz.

3. https://www.youtube.com/results?sp=CANQFA%3D%3D&q=sea+of+thieves

If we look at YT views... there's a hit and miss in these numbers.
Pros: consistently high engagement numbers. Different scopes of content related to SoT gets >250k views on average basis. That's pretty decent.
Cons: the peak views are low. Traditionally big E3 trailers, etc, get a lot of attention and eyeballs in the millions. One-ish million views are not big numbers.

That being said, like I said, SoT is not a game that has gone through open betas and a lot of people playing on it yet.

The big thing SoT needs is an extremely, extremely successful open-alpha/beta phase that can deliver amazing WoM and interest.

If it can do that, I think it's ripe for success. If not... =(

 

[Fredrik]

Right. In essence, without being optimistic, 3.5~5 million is more realistic.

It doesn't help that it's looking like XBX might have less games with X-patches than there are games with Pro-patches, if only because of the gap in time between the release of each and developers' willingness to go back and change things.

What time span are you talking about here? Life to date when next box arrives?
I'd say that it'll be way more than that, no doubt, since it'll be around for 3-4 years with price drops etc. But when all is said and done and the next box is out I still doubt that it has surpassed Pro's total figures.

 

[leeh]

2) Power does matter to a point but it matters less when the price is more than the competitors by a decent margin. The power also matters more at the beginning of a generation and not in the middle of one and It will sell out for the first few months but I don't see it continuing long term but your right microsoft doesn't seem to see that either.

4) They have erroded the vast majority of the dominance because of issues like price and you may not believe it but price is a big deal. They have very few territories that they matter in and it's a big unknown if they can make a difference.

5)XBL has regressed more than anything, it's definitely no longer the top service by a wide margin. It was pretty great in the 360 for reliablity but now it's definitely pretty bad and I definitely am not the only one that feels that way.

2) Youre pulling that out of thin air.

5) XBL has regressed? Wut. Its still top tier. Just to state some important things this gen, party chat runs on dedi's and 1st party titles run on dedi's which are fantastic. All the Sony 1st party IP's and chat are still P2P.

 

[Pif]

Anyone else feel like Sea of Thieves could become a viral sleeper hit?

No Mans Ocean vibes so far.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

So the cheaper system had the better looking games in 2013 is the same as the significant more expensive system is also more powerful in 2017.

Obviously it's not, but considered in isolation, people's opinion about how much resolution actually matters seems to be rather "volatile" on both sides, and that's what that little meme is all about, no more, no less.

 

[recursive]

2)

5)XBL has regressed more than anything, it's definitely no longer the top service by a wide margin. It was pretty great in the 360 for reliablity but now it's definitely pretty bad and I definitely am not the only one that feels that way.

Can you give some examples here?

 

[blakep267]

No Mans Ocean vibes so far.

No mans sky sold a lot though, regardless of quality

 

[ResidentDante]

The comments on the last page about Microsoft not knowing what Sony was planning with PS4 (and the reverse has been true in the past) makes me wish that could go even further next generation (whether its Sony or Microsoft) by going with different technology / hardware providers, like Nvidia and/or Intel, even though its unlikely and putting aside backward compatibility. Right now PS4, Xbox One, PS4 Pro and Xbox One X are all based on the same basic Jaguar and GCN architectures. It would certainly make things more fun and more interesting if one of the next gen systems used Nvidia's next architecture after Volta, and/or an Intel CPU, or dare I say it, a Knight's Landing accelerator or its successor. Or something new and interesting that really advances basic processing and/or graphics rendering.

Just thinking aloud, and a little drunk.

I get your thoughts here. I just think it's way to risky. It's all about parts you can get off the shelf now, mass produced and well tested.

 

[KORNdoggy]

5) XBL has regressed?

i think it definitely HAD regressed when it launched, seemingly missing or fucking up basic features it had nailed down on the 360, like party chat, while PS4 seemed to have everything working out of the box. game downloads and installs taking years...that sort of thing. but it has since fixed a lot of those problems and it's back to business as usual. i don't feel like the argument that it's particularly superior to PSN holds any water these days though. neither feel like they're worth paying for and if it wasn't for the games with gold/PS+ offerings i think most would struggle to justify either.

 

[In Service]

Can you give some examples here?

I'm not sure he can. Active user growth is probably one of the shining lights of the MS financial reports every time they are released. Up 8% to 53 million a few months ago. I don't see reliability (or security of data) issues with MS much if at all.

What are we comparing it to? Sony? Nintendo? Live is light years ahead. Steam has some different qualities but that's a different platform type.

 

[Admodieus]

5)XBL has regressed more than anything, it's definitely no longer the top service by a wide margin. It was pretty great in the 360 for reliablity but now it's definitely pretty bad and I definitely am not the only one that feels that way.

Live is still the gold standard for console online services. The friends/favorites system was forward thinking at the time and is a better way to control notifications than manually enabling/disabling them for each person on PSN. Live has also continued to get new features this generation, including the excellent LFG and Arena. You can also change your name on Live, if you want.

 

[watdaeff4]

Live is better than PSN, but I do think the difference between the two isn't as wide as many make it out to be.

 

[Ushay]

Anyone else feel like Sea of Thieves could become a viral sleeper hit?

I feel like that is exactly what they are aiming for, the reception for this game has been universally positive. I've yet to see anyone with hands on impressions as being negative.

For the single player gaming I can see why they would look at this and go 'eh?' because we've seen gameplay only, very little to show it has a campaign of any sort and no narrative to speak of. But the game isn't aiming for that crowd to begin with.

 

[Prithee Be Careful]

Anyone else feel like Sea of Thieves could become a viral sleeper hit?

I knew a number of people working on the project and they've all since moved on to other studios - make of that what you will.

 

[Neuromancer]

I knew a number of people working on the project and they've all since moved on to other studios - make of that what you will.

Hmm I don't know what to make of that. Mismanagement? I don't generally hear of developers leaving just because the game they're working on might be bad.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

I knew a number of people working on the project and they've all since moved on to other studios - make of that what you will.

Maybe they are just not needed anymore in the further development process?

I guess we'll know soon enough if this title has long legs or not

 

[RichiRamjag]

Anyone else feel like Sea of Thieves could become a viral sleeper hit?

No. Not really.

I say that as someone who was initially very hyped for it.

 

[Prithee Be Careful]

Hmm I don't know what to make of that. Mismanagement? I don't generally hear of developers leaving just because the game they're working on might be bad.

I get the impression that project management is an area where it's struggling, that and overall direction. That was a few months back now though. I hope Rare turn it around, would be great to see them back to their best.

 

[Guymelef]

I get the impression that project management is an area where it's struggling, that and overall direction. That was a few months back now though. I hope Rare turn it around, would be great to see them back to their best.

It shouldn't surprise anybody, they are always showing the same, every new video is a dejavu.
What do you do?

 

[Prithee Be Careful]

It shouldn't surprise anybody, they are always showing the same, every new video is a dejavu.
What do you do?

Yeah, apparently there's not a great deal more depth than what's already been shown. At least, that's what I heard a few months back - could well have changed since then.

Me? I work in marketing...

Spoiler

don't judge me.

 

[Kill3r7]

Anyone else feel like Sea of Thieves could become a viral sleeper hit?

They need to get it out on early access/preview, which I am sure they will once they get the build to that point.