ITT, predict for the NPD February 2015 retail period (February 1-28, 2015; It's just coincidence that it matches the month. Don't get used to it! 
) for U.S. hardware sales.
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, March 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.
NPD Coverage: February 1-28, 2015 (4 weeks, January was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, March 12th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)
Format:
[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]
Good/Bad Formatting
Potential hardware impacting events in February:
Summary
Strange pattern where February tends to be a noticeable increase over January for most systems; tax returns?
XB1 Holiday $50 price drop reinstated Jan. 16 so in effect full month of February (28 days)
New 3DSXL + Majora's Mask n3DSXL + Monster Hunter 4 n3DSXL released on Feb. 13 (16 days)
First week of n3DSXL sales ~180K:
The following Q&A and release list were compiled and prepared by Sales-Age GAFfer Aquamarine exclusively for NeoGAF:
Q&A for some common NPD misconceptions:
Q: Aren't NPD numbers USA-only?
A:
No. The numbers we talk about in this thread and the general NPD thread are from The NPD Group's report on USA video game sell-through.
However, The NPD Group also produces monthly Canadian video game sell-through reports, as well as weekly Australian and New Zealand video game sell-through reports in partnership with GfK Group.
Although public Canadian NPD data is no longer available, you can visit the following website for the latest weekly Australian / New Zealand NPD software rankings: http://www.mcvpacific.com/news/tag/charts
Because the Canadian and Oceanic video game markets are significantly smaller than the USA video game market (e.g. Canadian sales are approx. 10% of the North American market), we only make predictions for The NPD Group's USA video game report.
Q: How accurate are USA NPD numbers? Aren't they only 75% accurate or something?
A:
As of 2015, The NPD Group directly tracks approximately 90-95% of the retail USA video game market, depending on the title. This means that 90-95% of the USA retail video game market directly provide The NPD Group with raw POS data. Participating USA video game retailers who give The NPD Group raw sell-through data include Walmart, walmart.com, Gamestop, gamestop.com, Target, target.com, Best Buy, bestbuy.com, K-Mart / Sears, kmart.com / sears.com, Toys 'R' Us, toysrus.com, amazon.com, newegg.com, tigerdirect.com, qvc.com, hsn.com, Sam's Club, samsclub.com, Costco, costco.com, and more. For the other 5-10%, they use sophisticated, proprietary algorithms based on research and decades of experience in the industry to account for the percent of the industry they don't track.
In total, The NPD Group directly tracks over 900 retailers (and corresponding websites) representing over 150,000 retail locations worldwide.
Walmart has participated with The NPD Group since at least 2007. However, there was a short period of time after 2007 where Walmart refused to provide The NPD Group with direct POS data, so Walmart was estimated by The NPD Group during that time. That's when the "NPD is only 75% accurate" rumours began to propagate. However, The NPD Group signed a new deal with Walmart and began tracking Walmart sales again, so that concern hasn't been valid for a while now.
Q: Does The NPD Group track used game sales?
A:
The NPD Group does indeed directly track USA physical used game sales from participating retailers like Gamestop's used game program and Amazon's reseller program, but because Gamestop has an approximate 90% marketshare of used game sales in this sector, The NPD Group can't report precise used game sales in the same way that they do with new game sales.
So, The NPD Group's USA reports on used games are generalised and are projected out to include major used game sources like Ebay.
In the reports that we discuss each month, we're only referring to The NPD Group's report of new physical retail sell-through.
Q: Can we trust NPD numbers because they aren't 100% accurate?
A:
Long-time clients of NPD data include: Nintendo of America, Sony Computer Entertainment America, Microsoft, Electronic Arts, Activision Blizzard, Ubisoft, Take-Two Interactive, Capcom, Sega Sammy, Square Enix, Bandai Namco, and many more.
NPD numbers are highly respected within the industry and outside the industry for what they track (i.e. physical retail sales). Video game publishers like Nintendo directly use NPD numbers in PR releases, in financial reports to investors, and for internal decision-making. Therefore, because the industry trusts their numbers, we need to trust their numbers as well.
No retail tracking agency is 100% perfect, but they are as close to perfection as we can get.
Q: Is historical VG Chartz USA data a "good enough" representation of historical USA NPD sales?
A:
No. There are countless instances where historical NPD data differs significantly from historical VG Chartz data.
No form of USA or European data on that site can be trusted whether historical or recent, and any VG Chartz-sourced data or arguments based on their data is banned on NeoGAF in all instances.
Q: Aren't NPD numbers irrelevant nowadays?
A:
First of all, NPD numbers will eternally be 100% relevant for hardware and accessory sell-through, because those cannot be downloaded.
But because digital sell-through numbers continue to rise with every passing year, NPD software numbers are indeed growing in irrelevancy.
For example, take the PC software market. Although The NPD Group directly tracks PC physical retail, the vast majority of PC software sales occur through digital avenues. In 2013, PC USA physical software retail only accounted for 5% of overall physical USA software sales, clearly demonstrating how NPD numbers do not tell the whole story.
However, the good majority of console video game software sales continue to occur through physical sales or through digital codes bundled with hardware, and so, while NPD software sales are growing in irrelevancy, they still represent the bulk of total sell-through and are still worth discussing. An 80% physical (or digital with hardware bundle), 20% digital split is a good baseline nowadays for major titles.
Q: What are "The Top 5" that you talk about?
A:
The Top 5 is the aggregate of the top 5 retailer networks directly tracked by NPD (i.e. NPD receives raw POS data from them on a regular basis) that comprise the vast majority of USA video game sell-through.
Hardware / software availability at the Top 5 is delineated below because a limited release not available at one of the Top 5 could potentially inform us of lower sell-through.
The Top 5 are as follows:
1) The GAMESTOP retail network
- Sales at 4,183 (as of 2014-11-01) Gamestop stores in the USA
- Sales at gamestop.com, the 334th most popular website in the USA (as of 2015-02-23) according to Alexa Analytics
2) The WALMART retail network
- Sales at 3,407 Walmart Supercenters (as of 2015-01-31)
- Sales at 470 Walmart Discount Stores (as of 2015-01-31)
- Sales at 647 Sam's Club stores (as of 2015-01-31)
- Sales at walmart.com, the 42nd most popular website in the USA (as of 2015-02-23) according to Alexa Analytics
- Sales at samsclub.com, the 492nd most popular website in the USA (as of 2015-02-23) according to Alexa Analytics
3) The TARGET retail network
- Sales at 1,790 total Target stores (as of 2015-01-31)
- Sales at target.com, the 59th most popular website in the USA (as of 2015-02-23) according to Alexa Analytics
4) The BEST BUY retail network
- Sales at 1,052 (as of 2014-11-01) Best Buy stores in the USA
- Sales at bestbuy.com, the 50th most popular website in the USA (as of 2015-02-23) according to Alexa Analytics
5) The AMAZON retail network
- Sales at amazon.com, the 4th most popular website in the USA (as of 2015-02-23) according to Alexa Analytics
Q: Does The NPD Group track bundles?
A:
In the Top 10 list that is released to the public on the 2nd Thursday of the month, The NPD Group does not include bundles.
This distorts the real Top 10 (accounting for all software sales in the physical retail market). For example, in the public January 2015 Top 10 list, Assassin's Creed Unity would have been in the Top 10 list if bundles were included, because the majority of its sell-through was realised through bundle sales.
The NPD Group only reports the exact sales of universally-available manufacturer bundles / limited editions. Sales of retailer-exclusive hardware bundles / software bundles / limited editions are not reported because they reveal exact sell-through at a particular retailer, and retailers want to keep their exact sell-through data private.
However, this does not imply a significant segment of the physical retail market is excluded from NPD reports. The NPD Group accounts for all variables in their sell-through data and adjusts the totals accordingly.
The release list below disregards retailer-exclusive hardware / software bundles / limited editions, and the accompanying pictures may not comprehensively represent every release that NPD tracks.
For 2015, only PS4, XB1, WIU, 360, PS3, 3DS, and PSV physical retail releases will be considered.
Warning: The Top 5 availability check was formulated from a cursory analysis of stock and may contain errors.
COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF USA SOFTWARE + HARDWARE RETAIL RELEASES IN THE FEBRUARY 2015 NPD REPORTING PERIOD (2015-02-01 through 2015-02-28):
SONY PLAYSTATION 4:
1) EVOLVE
Published by 2K Games
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-10 USA Release Date (19 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4 and XB1
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
2) DEAD OR ALIVE 5 LAST ROUND
Published by Koei Tecmo America
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-17 USA Release Date (12 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4 and XB1
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart or Target)
3) THE ORDER 1886
Published by Sony Computer Entertainment America
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-20 USA Release Date (9 days of NPD tracking)
PS4 Exclusive
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
3) THE ORDER 1886 COLLECTOR'S EDITION
Published by Sony Computer Entertainment America
$79.99 MSRP
2015-02-20 USA Release Date (9 days of NPD tracking)
PS4 Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart or Target)
3) THE ORDER 1886 PREMIUM EDITION
Published by Sony Computer Entertainment America
$149.99 MSRP
2015-02-20 USA Release Date (9 days of NPD tracking)
PS4 Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart, Target, or Best Buy)
4) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
4) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE DAY 1 EDITION
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
5) DYNASTY WARRIORS 8 EMPIRES
Published by Koei Tecmo America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4 and XB1
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Target)
6) RUGBY 15
Published by Maximum Games
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Target)
MICROSOFT XBOX ONE:
1) EVOLVE
Published by 2K Games
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-10 USA Release Date (19 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4 and XB1
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
2) DEAD OR ALIVE 5 LAST ROUND
Published by Koei Tecmo America
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-17 USA Release Date (12 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4 and XB1
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart or Target)
3) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
3) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE DAY 1 EDITION
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
4) DYNASTY WARRIORS 8 EMPIRES
Published by Koei Tecmo America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4 and XB1
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Target)
5) RUGBY 15
Published by Maximum Games
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Target)
NINTENDO 3DS:
1) SPONGEBOB HEROPANTS
Published by Activision
$29.99 MSRP
2015-02-03 USA Release Date (26 days of NPD tracking)
Available on 360, 3DS, and PSV
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
2) ACE COMBAT ASSAULT HORIZON LEGACY PLUS
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-10 USA Release Date (19 days of NPD tracking)
3DS Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Walmart and Target)
3) MONSTER HUNTER 4 ULTIMATE
Published by Capcom USA
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of NPD tracking)
3DS Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Target)
4) MONSTER HUNTER 4 ULTIMATE COLLECTOR'S EDITION
Published by Capcom USA
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of tracking)
3DS Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Gamestop and Amazon, and not available at Walmart, Best Buy, and Target)
5) NEW NINTENDO 3DS XL CONSOLE BLACK
Published by Nintendo of America
$199.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of NPD tracking)
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
5) NEW NINTENDO 3DS XL CONSOLE RED
Published by Nintendo of America
$199.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of NPD tracking)
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
5) NEW NINTENDO 3DS XL CONSOLE LEGEND OF ZELDA MAJORA'S MASK LIMITED EDITION GOLD BLACK
Published by Nintendo of America
$199.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of NPD tracking)
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
6) THE LEGEND OF ZELDA MAJORA'S MASK 3D
Published by Nintendo of America
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of NPD tracking)
3DS Exclusive
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
6) THE LEGEND OF ZELDA MAJORA'S MASK 3D LIMITED EDITION
Published by Nintendo of America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of NPD tracking)
3DS Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Gamestop, and not available at Walmart or Target)
NINTENDO WII U:
1) KIRBY AND THE RAINBOW CURSE
Published by Nintendo of America
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-20 USA Release Date (9 days of NPD tracking)
Wii U Exclusive
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
MICROSOFT XBOX 360:
1) SPONGEBOB HEROPANTS
Published by Activision
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-03 USA Release Date (26 days of NPD tracking)
Available on 360, 3DS, and PSV
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
2) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Target)
2) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE DAY 1 EDITION
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Target)
SONY PLAYSTATION 3:
1) UNDER NIGHT IN-BIRTH EXE LATE
Published by Aksys Games
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
PS3 Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart or Target)
2) RUGBY 15
Published by Maximum Games
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Target)
3) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Target)
3) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE DAY 1 EDITION
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Target)
SONY PLAYSTATION VITA:
1) CRIMINAL GIRLS INVITE ONLY
Published by NIS America
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-03 USA Release Date (26 days of NPD tracking)
PSV Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart, and online-only at Target)
2) SPONGEBOB HEROPANTS
Published by Activision
$29.99 MSRP
2015-02-03 USA Release Date (26 days of NPD tracking)
Available on 360, 3DS, and PSV
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Target)
3) HYPERDEVOTION NOIRE GODDESS BLACK HEART
Published by Idea Factory International
$39.99 MSRP
2014-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
PSV Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart, and online-only at Target and most likely Best Buy)
Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)
[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]
January's Results (estimates)
1. PS4 ~ 190K
2. XB1 ~ 151K
3. 3DS ~ 74K
4. WIU ~ 63K
January 2014 NPD thread
February 2014 NPD thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive
) for U.S. hardware sales.What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, March 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.
NPD Coverage: February 1-28, 2015 (4 weeks, January was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, March 12th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)
Format:
[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]
Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good Bad
[XB1] 200K [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000 [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000 [XB1] - 200000Potential hardware impacting events in February:
Summary
Strange pattern where February tends to be a noticeable increase over January for most systems; tax returns?
XB1 Holiday $50 price drop reinstated Jan. 16 so in effect full month of February (28 days)
New 3DSXL + Majora's Mask n3DSXL + Monster Hunter 4 n3DSXL released on Feb. 13 (16 days)
First week of n3DSXL sales ~180K:
The following Q&A and release list were compiled and prepared by Sales-Age GAFfer Aquamarine exclusively for NeoGAF:
Q&A for some common NPD misconceptions:
Q: Aren't NPD numbers USA-only?
A:
No. The numbers we talk about in this thread and the general NPD thread are from The NPD Group's report on USA video game sell-through.
However, The NPD Group also produces monthly Canadian video game sell-through reports, as well as weekly Australian and New Zealand video game sell-through reports in partnership with GfK Group.
Although public Canadian NPD data is no longer available, you can visit the following website for the latest weekly Australian / New Zealand NPD software rankings: http://www.mcvpacific.com/news/tag/charts
Because the Canadian and Oceanic video game markets are significantly smaller than the USA video game market (e.g. Canadian sales are approx. 10% of the North American market), we only make predictions for The NPD Group's USA video game report.
Q: How accurate are USA NPD numbers? Aren't they only 75% accurate or something?
A:
As of 2015, The NPD Group directly tracks approximately 90-95% of the retail USA video game market, depending on the title. This means that 90-95% of the USA retail video game market directly provide The NPD Group with raw POS data. Participating USA video game retailers who give The NPD Group raw sell-through data include Walmart, walmart.com, Gamestop, gamestop.com, Target, target.com, Best Buy, bestbuy.com, K-Mart / Sears, kmart.com / sears.com, Toys 'R' Us, toysrus.com, amazon.com, newegg.com, tigerdirect.com, qvc.com, hsn.com, Sam's Club, samsclub.com, Costco, costco.com, and more. For the other 5-10%, they use sophisticated, proprietary algorithms based on research and decades of experience in the industry to account for the percent of the industry they don't track.
In total, The NPD Group directly tracks over 900 retailers (and corresponding websites) representing over 150,000 retail locations worldwide.
Walmart has participated with The NPD Group since at least 2007. However, there was a short period of time after 2007 where Walmart refused to provide The NPD Group with direct POS data, so Walmart was estimated by The NPD Group during that time. That's when the "NPD is only 75% accurate" rumours began to propagate. However, The NPD Group signed a new deal with Walmart and began tracking Walmart sales again, so that concern hasn't been valid for a while now.
Q: Does The NPD Group track used game sales?
A:
The NPD Group does indeed directly track USA physical used game sales from participating retailers like Gamestop's used game program and Amazon's reseller program, but because Gamestop has an approximate 90% marketshare of used game sales in this sector, The NPD Group can't report precise used game sales in the same way that they do with new game sales.
So, The NPD Group's USA reports on used games are generalised and are projected out to include major used game sources like Ebay.
In the reports that we discuss each month, we're only referring to The NPD Group's report of new physical retail sell-through.
Q: Can we trust NPD numbers because they aren't 100% accurate?
A:
Long-time clients of NPD data include: Nintendo of America, Sony Computer Entertainment America, Microsoft, Electronic Arts, Activision Blizzard, Ubisoft, Take-Two Interactive, Capcom, Sega Sammy, Square Enix, Bandai Namco, and many more.
NPD numbers are highly respected within the industry and outside the industry for what they track (i.e. physical retail sales). Video game publishers like Nintendo directly use NPD numbers in PR releases, in financial reports to investors, and for internal decision-making. Therefore, because the industry trusts their numbers, we need to trust their numbers as well.
No retail tracking agency is 100% perfect, but they are as close to perfection as we can get.
Q: Is historical VG Chartz USA data a "good enough" representation of historical USA NPD sales?
A:
No. There are countless instances where historical NPD data differs significantly from historical VG Chartz data.
No form of USA or European data on that site can be trusted whether historical or recent, and any VG Chartz-sourced data or arguments based on their data is banned on NeoGAF in all instances.
Q: Aren't NPD numbers irrelevant nowadays?
A:
First of all, NPD numbers will eternally be 100% relevant for hardware and accessory sell-through, because those cannot be downloaded.
But because digital sell-through numbers continue to rise with every passing year, NPD software numbers are indeed growing in irrelevancy.
For example, take the PC software market. Although The NPD Group directly tracks PC physical retail, the vast majority of PC software sales occur through digital avenues. In 2013, PC USA physical software retail only accounted for 5% of overall physical USA software sales, clearly demonstrating how NPD numbers do not tell the whole story.
However, the good majority of console video game software sales continue to occur through physical sales or through digital codes bundled with hardware, and so, while NPD software sales are growing in irrelevancy, they still represent the bulk of total sell-through and are still worth discussing. An 80% physical (or digital with hardware bundle), 20% digital split is a good baseline nowadays for major titles.
Q: What are "The Top 5" that you talk about?
A:
The Top 5 is the aggregate of the top 5 retailer networks directly tracked by NPD (i.e. NPD receives raw POS data from them on a regular basis) that comprise the vast majority of USA video game sell-through.
Hardware / software availability at the Top 5 is delineated below because a limited release not available at one of the Top 5 could potentially inform us of lower sell-through.
The Top 5 are as follows:
1) The GAMESTOP retail network
- Sales at 4,183 (as of 2014-11-01) Gamestop stores in the USA
- Sales at gamestop.com, the 334th most popular website in the USA (as of 2015-02-23) according to Alexa Analytics
2) The WALMART retail network
- Sales at 3,407 Walmart Supercenters (as of 2015-01-31)
- Sales at 470 Walmart Discount Stores (as of 2015-01-31)
- Sales at 647 Sam's Club stores (as of 2015-01-31)
- Sales at walmart.com, the 42nd most popular website in the USA (as of 2015-02-23) according to Alexa Analytics
- Sales at samsclub.com, the 492nd most popular website in the USA (as of 2015-02-23) according to Alexa Analytics
3) The TARGET retail network
- Sales at 1,790 total Target stores (as of 2015-01-31)
- Sales at target.com, the 59th most popular website in the USA (as of 2015-02-23) according to Alexa Analytics
4) The BEST BUY retail network
- Sales at 1,052 (as of 2014-11-01) Best Buy stores in the USA
- Sales at bestbuy.com, the 50th most popular website in the USA (as of 2015-02-23) according to Alexa Analytics
5) The AMAZON retail network
- Sales at amazon.com, the 4th most popular website in the USA (as of 2015-02-23) according to Alexa Analytics
Q: Does The NPD Group track bundles?
A:
In the Top 10 list that is released to the public on the 2nd Thursday of the month, The NPD Group does not include bundles.
This distorts the real Top 10 (accounting for all software sales in the physical retail market). For example, in the public January 2015 Top 10 list, Assassin's Creed Unity would have been in the Top 10 list if bundles were included, because the majority of its sell-through was realised through bundle sales.
The NPD Group only reports the exact sales of universally-available manufacturer bundles / limited editions. Sales of retailer-exclusive hardware bundles / software bundles / limited editions are not reported because they reveal exact sell-through at a particular retailer, and retailers want to keep their exact sell-through data private.
However, this does not imply a significant segment of the physical retail market is excluded from NPD reports. The NPD Group accounts for all variables in their sell-through data and adjusts the totals accordingly.
The release list below disregards retailer-exclusive hardware / software bundles / limited editions, and the accompanying pictures may not comprehensively represent every release that NPD tracks.
For 2015, only PS4, XB1, WIU, 360, PS3, 3DS, and PSV physical retail releases will be considered.
Warning: The Top 5 availability check was formulated from a cursory analysis of stock and may contain errors.
COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF USA SOFTWARE + HARDWARE RETAIL RELEASES IN THE FEBRUARY 2015 NPD REPORTING PERIOD (2015-02-01 through 2015-02-28):
SONY PLAYSTATION 4:
1) EVOLVE
Published by 2K Games
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-10 USA Release Date (19 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4 and XB1
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
2) DEAD OR ALIVE 5 LAST ROUND
Published by Koei Tecmo America
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-17 USA Release Date (12 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4 and XB1
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart or Target)
3) THE ORDER 1886
Published by Sony Computer Entertainment America
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-20 USA Release Date (9 days of NPD tracking)
PS4 Exclusive
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
3) THE ORDER 1886 COLLECTOR'S EDITION
Published by Sony Computer Entertainment America
$79.99 MSRP
2015-02-20 USA Release Date (9 days of NPD tracking)
PS4 Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart or Target)
3) THE ORDER 1886 PREMIUM EDITION
Published by Sony Computer Entertainment America
$149.99 MSRP
2015-02-20 USA Release Date (9 days of NPD tracking)
PS4 Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart, Target, or Best Buy)
4) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
4) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE DAY 1 EDITION
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
5) DYNASTY WARRIORS 8 EMPIRES
Published by Koei Tecmo America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4 and XB1
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Target)
6) RUGBY 15
Published by Maximum Games
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Target)
MICROSOFT XBOX ONE:
1) EVOLVE
Published by 2K Games
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-10 USA Release Date (19 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4 and XB1
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
2) DEAD OR ALIVE 5 LAST ROUND
Published by Koei Tecmo America
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-17 USA Release Date (12 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4 and XB1
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart or Target)
3) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
3) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE DAY 1 EDITION
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
4) DYNASTY WARRIORS 8 EMPIRES
Published by Koei Tecmo America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4 and XB1
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Target)
5) RUGBY 15
Published by Maximum Games
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Target)
NINTENDO 3DS:
1) SPONGEBOB HEROPANTS
Published by Activision
$29.99 MSRP
2015-02-03 USA Release Date (26 days of NPD tracking)
Available on 360, 3DS, and PSV
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
2) ACE COMBAT ASSAULT HORIZON LEGACY PLUS
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-10 USA Release Date (19 days of NPD tracking)
3DS Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Walmart and Target)
3) MONSTER HUNTER 4 ULTIMATE
Published by Capcom USA
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of NPD tracking)
3DS Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Target)
4) MONSTER HUNTER 4 ULTIMATE COLLECTOR'S EDITION
Published by Capcom USA
$59.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of tracking)
3DS Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Gamestop and Amazon, and not available at Walmart, Best Buy, and Target)
5) NEW NINTENDO 3DS XL CONSOLE BLACK
Published by Nintendo of America
$199.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of NPD tracking)
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
5) NEW NINTENDO 3DS XL CONSOLE RED
Published by Nintendo of America
$199.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of NPD tracking)
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
5) NEW NINTENDO 3DS XL CONSOLE LEGEND OF ZELDA MAJORA'S MASK LIMITED EDITION GOLD BLACK
Published by Nintendo of America
$199.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of NPD tracking)
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
6) THE LEGEND OF ZELDA MAJORA'S MASK 3D
Published by Nintendo of America
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of NPD tracking)
3DS Exclusive
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
6) THE LEGEND OF ZELDA MAJORA'S MASK 3D LIMITED EDITION
Published by Nintendo of America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-13 USA Release Date (16 days of NPD tracking)
3DS Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Gamestop, and not available at Walmart or Target)
NINTENDO WII U:
1) KIRBY AND THE RAINBOW CURSE
Published by Nintendo of America
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-20 USA Release Date (9 days of NPD tracking)
Wii U Exclusive
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
MICROSOFT XBOX 360:
1) SPONGEBOB HEROPANTS
Published by Activision
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-03 USA Release Date (26 days of NPD tracking)
Available on 360, 3DS, and PSV
FULL RELEASE (Available at all of the Top 5)
2) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Target)
2) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE DAY 1 EDITION
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Target)
SONY PLAYSTATION 3:
1) UNDER NIGHT IN-BIRTH EXE LATE
Published by Aksys Games
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
PS3 Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart or Target)
2) RUGBY 15
Published by Maximum Games
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Target)
3) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Target)
3) DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE DAY 1 EDITION
Published by Bandai Namco Games America
$49.99 MSRP
2015-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
Available on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Target)
SONY PLAYSTATION VITA:
1) CRIMINAL GIRLS INVITE ONLY
Published by NIS America
$39.99 MSRP
2015-02-03 USA Release Date (26 days of NPD tracking)
PSV Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart, and online-only at Target)
2) SPONGEBOB HEROPANTS
Published by Activision
$29.99 MSRP
2015-02-03 USA Release Date (26 days of NPD tracking)
Available on 360, 3DS, and PSV
LIMITED RELEASE (Online-only at Target)
3) HYPERDEVOTION NOIRE GODDESS BLACK HEART
Published by Idea Factory International
$39.99 MSRP
2014-02-24 USA Release Date (5 days of NPD tracking)
PSV Exclusive
LIMITED RELEASE (Not available at Walmart, and online-only at Target and most likely Best Buy)
Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)
[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]
January's Results (estimates)
1. PS4 ~ 190K
2. XB1 ~ 151K
3. 3DS ~ 74K
4. WIU ~ 63K
January 2014 NPD thread
February 2014 NPD thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive
