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February 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 8th

R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
RexNovis said:
Seeing a LOT of really high 3DS estimates again. What is it with people and severely overestimating 3DS? It only sold ~70k last month guys. Unless you think FE is going to push substantial numbers of HW in which case: you crazy. Cool your jets.
Click to expand...

3 reasons:

1) February is just a bigger month than January, and this alone increase it sales by a good margin.
2) Fire Emblem Fates with bundle.
3) Pokémon 3DS Anniversary edition.

3DS should have a great month, it will probabily have the bigger increase in term of "%".

N.Domixis said:
These ps4 numbers are crazy. Why would it hit 400k
Click to expand...

I don't get what is crazy... it need a +74% MOM increase for sell 400,000.

Last year the MOM increase was +81%. I believe this time will be smaller because unlike last year PS4 sold great in January, but 400,000 seem a fair estimate.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
RexNovis said:
Seeing a LOT of really high 3DS estimates again. What is it with people and severely overestimating 3DS? It only sold ~70k last month guys. Unless you think FE is going to push substantial numbers of HW in which case: you crazy. Cool your jets.



My PS4, 3DS and WiiU numbers are higher than yours. I find your optimism ... lacking. ;)
Click to expand...

I have failed Optimism Gaf^^ㅋ
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Let's start a new SalesGAF tradition! I think we SalesGAF regulars should submit 3 or more bold predictions in order to hopefully spark some discussion and debate. I think it will help liven up these pre season sales threads and foster some good sales discussions in the process.

Here I'll start us off

RexNovis' Bold Predictions Feb 2016:

  • Digimon Stories Cyber Sleuth will chart.
    In a just world it would anyway... Let me dream!

  • SFV will sell 300k or more

  • One Fire Emblem Fates SKU will rank and will rank higher than SFV (T_T) which will also rank

  • Far Cry Primal will sell the most on XB1 in NPD

  • PS4 will outsell XB1 by at least 150k.

  • PS4 will sell more than 7x the number of WiiUs sold.

  • GTAV will rank #3 or higher on the software chart

  • Seige will rank in at 8 or higher and continue to sell the most on XB1

  • Minecraft will sell more than Fire Emblem


To be updated with more as the month progresses.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Looking at the 3DS in February, besides the N3DS month, its weekly average increase from January to February has been in the ~50-60% territory.

I actually did not know the 3DS had a FE bundle, so I think I might change my prediction for that.

RexNovis said:
RexNovis' Bold Predictions Feb 2016:

  • PS4 will outsell XB1 by at least 150k.

  • PS4 will sell more than 6x the number of WiiUs sold.
Click to expand...

Not actually that bold in all honesty.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
RED_RING said:
3 reasons:

1) February is just a bigger month than January, and this alone increase it sales by a good margin.
2) Fire Emblem Fates with bundle.
3) Pokémon 3DS Anniversary edition.

3DS should have a great month, it will probabily have the bigger increase in term of "%".
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with any of this bit I still think 140k + (which would be an increase of 100% or more MoM) is unrealistic and I'm seeing a lot of estimates that 140k or more for 3DS. The absolute most I could see it selling is 125k.


Oops sorry double post. Thread is moving slower than I anticipated. Apologies!
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Sorry Rex, i know you don't truly believe some of you'r "bold prediction", but:

You think SFV will sell over 300K.
You also say one SKUs of Fates will outsell it.

I mean, what you expect from both version combined of Fates...? o_O

RexNovis said:
I don't disagree with any of this bit I still think 140k + (which would be an increase of 100% or more MoM) is unrealistic and I'm seeing a lot of estimates that 140k or more for 3DS. The absolute most I could see it selling is 125k.


Oops sorry double post. Thread is moving slower than I anticipated. Apologies!
Click to expand...

Usually i agree that a 100% MOM increase is too big, but in February, where a good 50-60% increase is from Tax season alone, and with 2 bundle + a game which is goin to sell Very well... A 100% MOM increase doesn't seem crazy. I predict just a bit less than this.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
RED_RING said:
Sorry Rex, i know you don't truly believe some of you'r "bold prediction", but:

You think SFV will sell over 300K.
You also say one SKUs of Fates will outsell it.

I mean, what you expect from both version combined of Fates...? o_O
Click to expand...

Something around 490k for both normal SKUS but I think the CE version (or whatever the version with both campaigns is) will sell another 70k+ and will be added to the leading SKU which will put it above 300k. Basically it depends entirely on how NPD handles the separate SKUs.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Boke1879 said:
Crazy to think PS4 could hit near 400k for the month
Click to expand...
Might even surpass 400K, actually. If the PS4 follows the current gen trends of a ~80% MoM boost from January to February, it would sell over 400K. But many of us are being more conservative because the PS4 had a good January.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
[PS4] 380K
[XB1] 215K
[3DS] 110K
[WIU] 50k

Current February Amazon rankings (not final obviously)

#6: Zelda Twilight Princess - WiiU
#7: Xbox One Wireless controller
#9: DS4
#11: PS4 COD Blops 3 bundle - $349
#16: Xbox One Elite wireless controller
#17: COD Blops 3- XB1
#18: Street Fighter V - PS4
#19: Far Cry Primal - PS4
#20: DS4 White
#21: COD Blops 3 - PS4
#27: XB1 GeoW bundle - $299
#28: The Division Gold ed. - PS4
#30: Naruto Ultimate Ninja Storm - PS4
#33: DS4 Blue
#34: The Division St ed. - PS4
#35: Farcry Primal - XB1
#36: Gravity Rush - PS4
#37: Fallout 4 - PS4
#39: UC Collection - PS4
#41: GTA V - PS4
#43: Fallout 4 - XB1
#44: Halo 5 - XB1
#45: Deadpool - PS4
#46: Valkyria Chronicles - PS4
#49: The Division- XB1
#50: Wii U Remote plus
#51: NBA2K16 - PS4
#53: Uncharted 4 - PS4
#54: Pokken Tournament - WiiU
#55: GTA V- XB1
#56: Fallout 4 season pass - PS4
#57: Dark Souls 3 - PS4
#58: The Division Gold ed. - XB1
#59: Battlefront - XB1
#65: Fallout 4 Season Pass - XB1
#69: DS4 Red
#76: Destiny TTK - XB1
#80: Deadpool - XB1
#85: XB1 Holiday bundle - $349
#86: Street Fighter Collector ed - PS4
#90: Digimon Cyber Sleuth - PS4
#91: Forza 6 - XB1
#92: Lego Star Wars TFA - PS4
#93: Batman Arkham Knight - PS4
#99: WiiU Pro Controller
#100: Minecraft - XB1
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
RED_RING said:
Usually i agree that a 100% MOM increase is too big, but in February, where a good 50-60% increase is from Tax season alone, and with 2 bundle + a game which is goin to sell Very well... A 100% MOM increase doesn't seem crazy. I predict just a bit less than this.
Click to expand...

Meh I get your reasoning but 3DS has been trending down for a while now so a 100% + boost MoM just seems incredibly unlikely to me. Besides, most of the predictions I was talking about were listing numbers like 150k or 175k which are a LOT more than 100% MoM so I think you'll agree that they are unrealistic.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
RexNovis said:
Something around 490k for both normal SKUS but I think the CE version (or whatever the version with both campaigns is) will sell another 70k+ and will be added to the leading SKU which will put it above 300k. Basically it depends entirely on how NPD handles the separate SKUs.
Click to expand...

Ok, here my guess! All including retail and digital:

Birthright < 200,000
Conquest < 140,000
Special edition < 60,000

Total < 400,000 with digital. >300,000 at retail.

RexNovis said:
Meh I get your reasoning but 3DS has been trending down for a while now so a 100% + boost MoM just seems incredibly unlikely to me. Besides, most of the predictions I was talking about were listing numbers like 150k or 175k which are a LOT more than 100% MoM so I think you'll agree that they are unrealistic.
Click to expand...

Trust me. Even if something seem unrealistic, never say never.
I agree that >150K seem too much for 3DS, but let's see. :)
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
RED_RING said:
Trust me. Even if something seem unrealistic, never say never.
I agree that >150K seem too much for 3DS, but let's see. :)
Click to expand...

Sounds like it should be one of your bold predictions ;)

Seriously guys. Make some predictions! Let's liven things up a bit!
 
V

Vena

Member
theprodigy said:
What's up with not including 3DS in the Amazon post?
Click to expand...

No one wants to see FE dominating the top with two (while also out of stock) completely different SKUs.

And Ryu in the top 10...



... as an Amiibo.

Also, taking this back to start of February, shows why early (as in at near the start of the month) Amazon Monthly (on top of being largely too small of a market share to be that highly indicative) is meaningless information. Some titles that were talked about at the top of the start of the month are sitting in 40-80 range now. Though, if nothing else, it does show us which games had basically no legs after release, though.
 
N

noobie

Banned
[3DS] 125k
[PS4] 388k
[WIU] 52k
[XB1] 228k

donny2112 said:
Potential hardware impacting events in February:
Tax Refunds coming in
Fire Emblem Fates n3DSXL - $200 (Feb. 19) - 9 days
Pokemon 20th Anniversary Edition n3DS - $200 (Feb. 27) - 1 day
Click to expand...

So Street Fighter V is not a potential hardware impacting event for February even in USA?
 
D

donny2112

Member
Welfare said:
I actually did not know the 3DS had a FE bundle, so I think I might change my prediction for that.
Click to expand...

Not a bundle. Just a themed 3DS. No game is included.


I predict both 3DS versions will chart in the Top 10
, but in the lower half of the Top 10
.

noobie said:
So Street Fighter V is not a potential hardware impacting event for February even in USA?
Click to expand...

Is it a big game? Yes.
Is it going to move significant hardware in the 4th calendar year of PS4/XB1? Probably not. Feel free to predict otherwise, though.
 
M

Man-is-Obsolete

Member
Abdiel said:
Ps4 doing very well, but it's still tax season, we've seen folks picking up both consoles. Just comfortable lead by Sony's machine.

Also. No one gives a shit about the the division bundle. Seriously.
Click to expand...

Is the UC4 bundle tracking better, or is too early for it to know?
 
N

noobie

Banned
donny2112 said:
Is it a big game? Yes.
Is it going to move significant hardware in the 4th calendar year of PS4/XB1? Probably not. Feel free to predict otherwise, though.
Click to expand...

Thanks for your insight. I hope Abdiel and others working in retail can chip in with their opinions from the store floor.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
[PS4] 310K
[XB1] 250K
[3DS] 150K
[WIU] 70K

Abdiel said:
Ps4 doing very well, but it's still tax season, we've seen folks picking up both consoles. Just comfortable lead by Sony's machine.

Also. No one gives a shit about the the division bundle. Seriously.
Click to expand...

Hey Abdiel, anything to say about Quantum Break pre-orders? The standalone game and the bundle.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Man-is-Obsolete said:
Is the UC4 bundle tracking better, or is too early for it to know?
Click to expand...

The UC4 Bundle is a Limited Edition Collector's example, with special design and all that. It's already got quite a few preorders, easily passed the numbers we have seen for the Division system's total preorders within its first week available for order. It's going to sell out, likely.

Chobel said:
[PS4] 310K
[XB1] 250K
[3DS] 150K
[WIU] 70K



Hey Abdiel, anything to say about Quantum Break pre-orders? The standalone game and the bundle.
Click to expand...

Quantum Break has... okay preorders. I've said this before, but I feel like too many people have no idea what it is, or that it's even coming. There's no marketing push yet. No big splash, as far as I'm aware. Have they started running commercials, because I haven't heard any mention of it.

The bundle got some immediate preorders, though, I'll be honest. More than a few of those were existing owners that wanted the white system and will be trading in or selling their existing black ones for that instead. (I'm guilty of doing this with my launch PS4 for the Destiny one, so I get it). I keep waiting for MS to throw their weight around with the title, because it feels like a stealth fighter at this point, quietly approaching the target date.

A title like QB really would benefit with more bombastic coverage, get people excited. It's right up the alley of the general buying audience for the system, it's not like it's a JRPG or something. But if you go to our site and the XB1 landing page, there's no mention of the system or the game at all, until you specifically scroll through all of the consoles available to find that one example for preorder online, and there's not really much else in store to help alert people either.
 
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