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February 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 8th

This is what I was thinking pre-release, but even I didn't expect SFVs current numbers.

And man, Rare has a lot of pressure on them after that Lionhead closure. 343, Coalition and Turn 10 are all fairly safe due to the studios existing for one purpose but Rare...

I certainly don't want to be them right now.
Damn man don't scare me like that not rare! Sea of thieves isn't exactly a safe bet either...im scared
 
After saw the UK charts, i changed my Far Cry Primal prediction 300,000 to 350,000.
It sold really really well, better than i expect.

I also believe will outsell both version of Fates combined. :v

I've been having an absolute blast with Primal. The hunting and crafting is really addictive.
 
vWGO0NT.jpg
 

Bgamer90

Banned
With the surprise release of Gears for PC I was thinking that this NPDs Xbox One sales might be underperforming, but with the cancellation of Fable Legends I'm thinking they might actually be pretty shocking.

I really don't think either will impact sales very much in comparison to if both exclusives stayed.

Gears is still only on Xbox within the console space so it's fine. I don't think Fable was going to do that well and/or push a huge chunk of console sales.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
I mean, yeah, SFV has no bearing on the PS4's success. Capcom rushed the release for their competitive crowd/EVO, and because of it the game's success with the casual crowd has suffered.

It's on Capcom for SFV's sales failure.

Completely agree. PS4 would have been perfectly fine either way (whether with or without Street Fighter).

Capcom rushing the game out has caused permanent damage. Many will already be focused on other games by the time that people will view SFV as being in an acceptable state for features/content.

I feel that there's going to have to be a "Super SFV" at this point if Capcom wants there to be mainstream attention about the game having the features that many expected at launch (even though Capcom said that they didn't want to follow another "Super, Turbo, etc." release model).
 
This is what I tried to say but failed horribly at lol.

I never said anything like this at all.......I said it was not on Sony or a huge deal for sony..not Capcom or SFV. It's on Capcom.
Hello AncientDiety, thanks for clarification. The thing is, I even don't disagree with you.
Is it a huge deal or loss for Sony? No, not compared to games in the size of Uncharted, Destiny, No Man's Sky or even Last Guardian.
Was it a huge loss for Capcom? Absolutely. But as it seems it was their own mistake. But does it make it less painful? I can imagine a full release would have resulted in far better reviews, word of mouth and, in the end, sales (also console sales).
This release was treated horribly. By Capcom in the first place. Did not know that Sony had nothing to decide here, still find it odd as this game is an exclusive.
For me, Sony so far handled most releases, big and small ones, with great care this gen, so I was disappointed that this childhood hero of mine was released crippled.
And it reminded me of what Square/MS did to Tomb Raider. Taking a beloved franchise and sending it out to die by making decisions that were so obviously wrong.
Well, nevermind. It's good to see fresh faces here, and disagreement is highly appreciated, as long as everyone stays polite.
 
Hello AncientDiety, thanks for clarification. The thing is, I even don't disagree with you.
Is it a huge deal or loss for Sony? No, not compared to games in the size of Uncharted, Destiny, No Man's Sky or even Last Guardian.
Was it a huge loss for Capcom? Absolutely. But as it seems it was their own mistake. But does it make it less painful? I can imagine a full release would have resulted in far better reviews, word of mouth and, in the end, sales (also console sales).
This release was treated horribly. By Capcom in the first place. Did not know that Sony had nothing to decide here, still find it odd as this game is an exclusive.
For me, Sony so far handled most releases, big and small ones, with great care this gen, so I was disappointed that this childhood hero of mine was released crippled.
And it reminded me of what Square/MS did to Tomb Raider. Taking a beloved franchise and sending it out to die by making decisions that were so obviously wrong.
Well, nevermind. It's good to see fresh faces here, and disagreement is highly appreciated, as long as everyone stays polite.

No worries man, all good, it's ok to disagree we are adults (I assume you are :)).
 
I feel that there's going to have to be a "Super SFV" at this point if Capcom wants there to be mainstream attention about the game having the features that many expected at launch (even though Capcom said that they didn't want to follow another "Super, Turbo, etc." release model).
They should have called it Prologue.
 

Futurematic

Member
There are only a few exclusives that really move the needle in any decent quantity imo. The problem is how do you quantify it? I know many that got a ps4 knowing Uncharted, Gran Turismo, etc...would eventually come, how do you quantify that? It may not cause a spike at launch but many may have gotten the console in anticipation of those. I am a big baseball fan so I love MLB the show.... I got a ps3 for the show as well...so that is a system seller to me, same with the japanese support PS4 gets. I know many on OS sports also do the same, but you never see a spike when the show launches...Exclusives matter imo, but they don't always show a spike when a game launches, many buy a system knowing that those games will come to that platform.

It's from 2009 I should note, The Effect of Superstar Software on Hardware Sales in System Markets [PDF], and I rather suspect the effect is even less these days. I'd love to see an up to date study if someone has one.
 
Hu... after saw how badly it did in Europe (both at retail and digital), if it bomb hard even in USA, i don't even know what Capcom will do.

I guess maybe they could do what they say they wouldn't do, bite the bullet, and just repackage and relaunch it as some SFV Ultra edition (more characters, more single player content, new story lines, rebalanced) with owners of SFV getting the upgrade for free. Maybe just throw in a couple extra fighters in the Ultra edition (that vanilla owners can purchase) to set them apart and make the new version seem a better value.

Don't know how it would work out, but I'd probably be guillable enough to bite. I did say that I'd buy SFV once it felt more feature complete including sp content.
 

QaaQer

Member
Fear of Missing Out and Fear of Change are kind of related here, no?

No.

It's not fear of missing out, it is knowing you are missing out; like when you squeeze into your seat while watching those fuckers go behind the first class curtain before a 16 hour flight.
 
No.

It's not fear of missing out, it is knowing you are missing out; like when you squeeze into your seat while watching those fuckers go behind the first class curtain before a 16 hour flight.

But right now it's fear of missing out, because no one has absolutely any clue what this all means lol.
 

joecanada

Member
Completely agree. PS4 would have been perfectly fine either way (whether with or without Street Fighter).

Capcom rushing the game out has caused permanent damage. Many will already be focused on other games by the time that people will view SFV as being in an acceptable state for features/content.

I feel that there's going to have to be a "Super SFV" at this point if Capcom wants there to be mainstream attention about the game having the features that many expected at launch (even though Capcom said that they didn't want to follow another "Super, Turbo, etc." release model).

Not only this but you permanently damage sales revenue too because by the time you release all features and try to push it as new and improved people will view it as older, and want it for 40 bucks. And they'll find it used too.
It's like tomb raider ps4. I guess it'll be 60 bucks but will millions pay 60? Doubt it. More likely it'll be an afterthought and lots of fans will have already got it on PC too
 

labaronx

Member
Sony could throw sfv in as a holiday bundle at end of year... sfv isnt a total loss to them or capcom yet

Hell they could even turn the base model into a ps plus game
 
Hey thanks for expanding on your comment.

So... While I also don't think SF5 hurt PS4 sales a bunch, does that also imply that had SF5 been a bigger seller it would not have helped PS4 sales?

Are we seeing further potential evidence of exclusives not mattering as much this gen??

I think in the case of SFV, its effect would not be as big as most would think regardless. Even before its annoucement, it was pretty clear that the PS4 was going to be the console of choice for the FGC. The Majority of Fighters sell better on Sony platforms and really last gen, only MK, SF and Marvel had a significant presence on Xbox. With GG exclusive, BB and DOA:LR doing best on PS4, MK selling higher on PS4 too it was already a wrap.

Not to mention that the bulk of SFVs consoles sales probably came during to the beta periods and just after USF4s release.


Now if SFV was content complete and had a bigger push, maybe it would sell a few more consoles, but truth is the only system selling Street fighter has been SF2. Fighters are simply not big enough now to be pointed to as exclusives that sell consoles.
 

LordRaptor

Member
I really don't think either will impact sales very much in comparison to if both exclusives stayed.

Gears is still only on Xbox within the console space so it's fine. I don't think Fable was going to do that well and/or push a huge chunk of console sales.

Sorry, I guess I was unclear on cause and effect there; I'm not saying those actions may have caused lower than expected sales in February, I'm saying those actions may be the result of lower than expected sales in February.
 
50-100k seems a bit low? Or am I expecting too much? Even with the issues I expect it'll be nicely over 150k surely...

Nah 150k is upper bound. Imo sales anywhere between 50k-100k while 150k is the surprise amount. It failed catastrophically in one of the biggest market in the world. While digital sales in psn was much better in the US I expect similar for retail. Thus 100k. 50k each. Worse case scenario 25k each.
 
Fighters are simply not big enough now to be pointed to as exclusives that sell consoles.

So what was the point of the whole deal, then?

Let's assume that this statement is true (I'd agree with it)... so... why do this deal at all if you're Sony?

Since the moment it was announced it was a weird deal.
 

Welfare

Member
So what was the point of the whole deal, then?

Let's assume that this statement is true (I'd agree with it)... so... why do this deal at all if you're Sony?

Since the moment it was announced it was a weird deal.

Big name franchise won't get a new game made unless a third party ponies up some money.

Big name franchise's next game can then be paraded around as an exclusive game only available on third parties console.

Gain good PR for how they "saved" said big franchise's next game.

One extra game that people can't buy on competitors box.
 
Sony doesn't have a big fighting franchise. SFV was supposed to fill the void. The same way Rise of the Tomb Raider filled Microsoft's action-adventure void. It isn't always just about moving units.
 
Sony doesn't have a big fighting franchise. SFV was supposed to fill the void. The same way Rise of the Tomb Raider filled Microsoft's action-adventure void.
At least tomb raider recovering from PC sales and upcoming ps4 sales. SFV can't recover like that. Future is not bright for SF franchise.
 
Sony doesn't have a big fighting franchise. SFV was supposed to fill the void. The same way Rise of the Tomb Raider filled Microsoft's action-adventure void. It isn't always just about moving units.
They should have funded kof xiv instead! Probably will be packed with content,50 characters at launch hell alil bit more money and Sony's help to get it to look a lil better they'd be good
 
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