However, other members of the alliance, particularly Germany, may balk at prospective new members that violate ceasefire agreements, invade ethnic enclaves, and invite a war with Russia to settle old scores in South Ossetia. Had Saakashvili taken the same course of action as a full NATO member, Georgia could invoke Article Five of the North Atlantic Treaty. The United States and NATO would be obliged to either declare war on Russia or rupture the alliance.
Looking forward, Saakashvili can hope to gain little from this gambit save a de facto pull-back in U.S. support, increased estrangement from NATO, and an aggressive Russian neighbor in full control of South Ossetia. Despite worrisome indications of Saakashvili's eroding commitment to democratic governance, Washington had gambled that the prospect of NATO membership and continued foreign assistance would prevent his government from acting rashly in the face of increased Russian pressure. This gamble has clearly failed.
