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[camineet]

sorry, dp.

 

[Ether_Snake]

This is going to play 100% into McCain's hands. Just recently he was advocating kicking Russia out of the security council.

 

[Karakand]

Why the hell does the UN exist?:lol

If it was just a place where people kicked it together a couple of times a year it wouldn't be nearly as offensive. (In part because we could dissolve and replace it more easily.) Instead we have an entrenched bureaucracy that is as famous for what it doesn't do as what it does.

Next time we try this, screen membership.

 

[Zen]

This is going to play 100% into McCain's hands. Just recently he was advocating kicking Russia out of the security council.

True enough.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Americans barely care about our OWN Georgia, much less the one on the other end of the world. Provided Russia doesn't go for the "I can't believe I ate the whole thing!" option, it's really not a big deal.

Being reasonable with Russia instead of bossing them around and trying to surround their entire western border with NATO member states might just be a bit more productive than the current foreign policy. Obama's in the right of it-what we need now is real negotiations hosted and led by an unbiased third party (if such a country even exists-this thing has its tendrils in SO much crap).

 

[Tamanon]

Plus I don't think you'll find that advocating MORE military intervention and antagonizing in the world will sell this election.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Plus I don't think you'll find that advocating MORE military intervention and antagonizing in the world will sell this election.

It sure works on the average American.

 

[Tamanon]

Interesting article here, IMO:

http://www.slate.com/id/2197281/

Regardless of what happens next, it is worth asking what the Bush people were thinking when they egged on Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia's young, Western-educated president, to apply for NATO membership, send 2,000 of his troops to Iraq as a full-fledged U.S. ally, and receive tactical training and weapons from our military. Did they really think Putin would sit by and see another border state (and former province of the Russian empire) slip away to the West? If they thought that Putin might not, what did they plan to do about it, and how firmly did they warn Saakashvili not to get too brash or provoke an outburst?

It's heartbreaking, but even more infuriating, to read so many Georgians quoted in the New York Times—officials, soldiers, and citizens—wondering when the United States is coming to their rescue. It's infuriating because it's clear that Bush did everything to encourage them to believe that he would. When Bush (properly) pushed for Kosovo's independence from Serbia, Putin warned that he would do the same for pro-Russian secessionists elsewhere, by which he could only have meant Georgia's separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Putin had taken drastic steps in earlier disputes over those regions—for instance, embargoing all trade with Georgia—with an implicit threat that he could inflict far greater punishment. Yet Bush continued to entice Saakashvili with weapons, training, and talk of entry into NATO. Of course the Georgians believed that if they got into a firefight with Russia, the Americans would bail them out.

Looking back, it really does seem like there was a lot more implied assistance being promised.

 

[zoku88]

It sure works on the average American.

I think the Average american is a bit war-weary...

 

[RamzaIsCool]

A wise friend told me once "assumption is the mother of all fuck ups". So I wonder what Saakashvili was assuming? That Russia wouldn't retaliate if they attacked South Ossetia? That the NATO, the EU or even big uncle Sam would back them up if they got in a pinch? Because afterall they are a nation aspiring to join the NATO and EU. Coupled with BTC Nabucco pipeline it would validate some sort of protection, right? But I suppose here comes the part of "fuck up", because Russia did retaliate and the world did nothing. And in the end Georgia will lose South Ossetia and probably Abhazia too. That said it will be intresting to see if Russia will make the same mistake, like assuming that they can occupy Georgia without some serious implications, especially from the US and the EU and maybe even moreso from Turkey.

 

[Karakand]

Americans barely care about our OWN Georgia, much less the one on the other end of the world.

What are you talking about, UGA is preseason #1. WOOF WOOF!

 

[Ether_Snake]

Interesting article here, IMO:

http://www.slate.com/id/2197281/



Looking back, it really does seem like there was a lot more implied assistance being promised.

The US is trying to provoke Russia into taking unjustfiable actions, in order to be able to take measures against them. At the same time, if Russia does NOT react to said provocations, the US accomplishes its goals (missile defense shield, new NATO members, etc.). Basically, the US is taking steps it knows would lead Russia to react, but at the same time if Russia reacts they are more likely to eventually make a serious mistake, and if they don't the US comes out stronger anyway.

It's that or your wait by and hope that somehow your opponent will become lazy or crumble.

Without an agitated Russia the US would have a much tougher time keeping its influence in the region.

 

[BlueTsunami]

This is going to play 100% into McCain's hands. Just recently he was advocating kicking Russia out of the security council.

I personally don't agree with McCain's harsher assessment of the situation but I agree that the majority of my fellow Americans are going to eat it up. I mean, this isn't a broken nation we're talking about, its fricken Russia.

 

[Jamesfrom818]

I personally don't agree with McCain's harsher assessment of the situation but I agree that the majority of my fellow Americans are going to eat it up. I mean, this isn't a broken nation we're talking about, its fricken Russia.

There are aspects I like about both candidates but if we're headed towards an unavoidable war with Russia, I'd like McCain to be at the helm. I still think diplomacy will be able to get us out of this clusterfuck though.

 

[Tamanon]

There are aspects I like about both candidates but if we're headed towards an unavoidable war with Russia, I'd like McCain to be at the helm. I still think diplomacy will be able to get us out of this clusterfuck though.

What would McCain bring to war that Obama wouldn't? They're not going to be doing any strategic or tactical planning in it.

 

[Cooter]

Jesus, these next 20 years are going to be hell.

 

[Rur0ni]

What would McCain bring to war that Obama wouldn't? They're not going to be doing any strategic or tactical planning in it.

They authorize Bombzaldroppen

 

[Ether_Snake]

McCain wouldn't do shit, he's just a figure head. The outcome would be the same with either candidate, probably more risky with McCain.

 

[Tamanon]

Jesus, these next 20 years are going to be hell.

Eh, we just switch sides every 20 years or so, either support Russia or support the "freedom fighters" fighting them, guess it's about time to switch it up again.

 

[Jamesfrom818]

What would McCain bring to war that Obama wouldn't? They're not going to be doing any strategic or tactical planning in it.

Through no fault of Obama, I just don't trust current Democrats when it comes to armed conflicts. I guess its all Clinton's fault when he decided to prematurely turn tail in Somalia.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Eh, we just switch sides every 20 years or so, either support Russia or support the "freedom fighters" fighting them, guess it's about time to switch it up again.

Russia was never supported, except slightly in the 40s, and even that is a stretch.

 

[avaya]

The US can't "do" anything to Russia. No one can. The only thing you can do is break their energy superpower monopoly by freeing up transit routes. Georgia is gone. Looks like the Iranian path is the only way and that will have to happen via negotiation.

The Georgian situation is another Western Betrayal of the Central European people.

Through no fault of Obama, I just don't trust current Democrats when it comes to armed conflicts. I guess its all Clinton's fault when he decided to prematurely turn tail in Somalia.

Facepalm.

 

[Ether_Snake]

The US can't "do" anything to Russia. No one can. The only thing you can do is break their energy superpower monopoly by freeing up transit routes. Georgia is gone. Looks like the Iranian path is the only way and that will have to happen via negotiation.

The Georgian situation is another Western Betrayal of the Central European people.



Facepalm.

It's not like Georgia was ever an option. The US only placed itself to go after Iran. Georgia is just a tool that was bound to fall eventually, just like the missile defense shield will never happen either.

Also, I I doubt Russia will be a pain in the ass when it comes to Iran. Georgia was given.

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

Eh, we just switch sides every 20 years or so, either support Russia or support the "freedom fighters" fighting them, guess it's about time to switch it up again.

about time we had a real war. first person shooters don't grow on trees you know....

 

[zoku88]

Russia was never supported, except slightly in the 40s, and even that is a stretch.

We actually went against the Russian during WWI, in a way. When the monarchy was overthrown, the West supported the losing side in the ensuing conflict. That prolly led to the Russian distrust of us, which was further cemented in WWII.

EDIT: I'm not really sure why I quoted you...

 

[Cooter]

Eh, we just switch sides every 20 years or so, either support Russia or support the "freedom fighters" fighting them, guess it's about time to switch it up again.

Talk about down-playing. I wouldn't say we were supporting Russia much these past 80 years

 

[Rur0ni]

The US can't "do" anything to Russia. No one can. The only thing you can do is break their energy superpower monopoly by freeing up transit routes. Georgia is gone. Looks like the Iranian path is the only way and that will have to happen via negotiation.

The Georgian situation is another Western Betrayal of the Central European people.

Why does this sound like a lost cause?

 

[avaya]

It's not like Georgia was ever an option. The US only placed itself to go after Iran. Georgia is just a tool that was bound to fall eventually, just like the missile defense shield will never happen either.

The missle defence shield will never happen because the missle defence shield would never work in principle since ICBM's tend to have multiple warheads.

Just like 1938, 1939 and Yalta we have betrayed these people again. It was unethical to have pushed on the Georgian's after years of lauding them for their contribution to the Halliburton-Bechtel project in Mesopotamia - which has left the US morally bankrupt and militarily incapable.

This will eventually come back to bite us (the West) in the ass again. It always does. When Transneft adds the BTC to their collection by the end of the week and everyone gets new rates.

Ukraine will join NATO eventually, they are much further along that path than Georgia has ever been. I hope we don't stand by and do nothing if that kicks off, although I'm pretty confident they could more than hold their own.

 

[NewLib]

The missle defence shield will never happen because the missle defence shield would never work in principle since ICBM's tend to have multiple warheads.

Just like 1938, 1939 and Yalta we have betrayed these people again. It was unethical to have pushed on the Georgian's after years of lauding them for their contribution to the Halliburton-Bechtel project in Mesopotamia - which has left the US morally bankrupt and militarily incapable.

This will eventually come back to bite us (the West) in the ass again. It always does. When Transneft adds the BTC to their collection by the end of the week and everyone gets new rates.

Ukraine will join NATO eventually, they are much further along that path than Georgia has ever been. I hope we don't stand by and do nothing if that kicks off, although I'm pretty confident they could more than hold their own.

I really dont see Russia invading Ukraine in the forseeable future because that really is a little too close to home for many Central European states.

I know Poland and Hungary will freak the fuck out if that happens.

 

[Macam]

The US is trying to provoke Russia into taking unjustfiable actions, in order to be able to take measures against them. At the same time, if Russia does NOT react to said provocations, the US accomplishes its goals (missile defense shield, new NATO members, etc.). Basically, the US is taking steps it knows would lead Russia to react, but at the same time if Russia reacts they are more likely to eventually make a serious mistake, and if they don't the US comes out stronger anyway.

It's that or your wait by and hope that somehow your opponent will become lazy or crumble.

Without an agitated Russia the US would have a much tougher time keeping its influence in the region.

And you're basing this on what exactly? Your own wishful thinking or the administration's impeccable ability for devising successful, cunning, long-term geopolitical strategies? This is nonsense.

The US is already having a tough time keeping its influence in the region with an inflamed Middle East, two ongoing wars, an emboldened Iran, a strengthened China, India's government trying to wobble through the American-Indian nuclear deal from three years ago, diplomatic tensions with both Koreas, and a lame duck president who's immensely unpopular at home and in Europe. Besides, Russia's been agitated for years now.

There are aspects I like about both candidates but if we're headed towards an unavoidable war with Russia, I'd like McCain to be at the helm. I still think diplomacy will be able to get us out of this clusterfuck though.

And we're to trust Republicans with armed conflicts, especially after these past 8 years?Without rehashing this issue in this thread, I'd readily consider the existing candidates' respective temperaments and decisions, particularly with the kinds of people with whom they surround themselves with. McCain's choice of advisers, let alone his temperament and record, hardly instills any good faith in me that he's going to handle a new military situation very well.

 

[speculawyer]

Man, I didn't see this one coming.

WTF was Georgia thinking? Mother Russia is powerhouse in conventional arms.

 

[speculawyer]

This is going to play 100% into McCain's hands. Just recently he was advocating kicking Russia out of the security council.

I dunno. The people that like McCain's macho-talk were already for him. A lot of people in the middle could be thinking . . . "Dude, we are already stuck in two quagmire wars . . . don't even think of picking a fight with Russia. Especially since they are a major oil exporter."

 

[avaya]

I really dont see Russia invading Ukraine in the forseeable future because that really is a little too close to home for many Central European states.

I know Poland and Hungary will freak the fuck out if that happens.

Russia won't invade Ukraine because Ukraine would decimate a large part of the Russian army. In its current state Russia is incapable of attacking Ukraine and winning without suffering serious losses which would not be limited to Russian military forces within Ukraine - civilian infrastructure will suffer as far as Moscow and St. Petersburg.

 

[Cooter]

I think the political ramifications of the situation belong in another thread but I will say that if the #1 issue this fall is national security Obama will lose. Plain and simple.

 

[Raistlin]

Americans barely care about our OWN Georgia, much less the one on the other end of the world.

Not so fast. iirc, there is an oil pipeline going through Georgia that bypasses Russia.

 

[Rur0ni]

Ukraine will join NATO eventually, they are much further along that path than Georgia has ever been. I hope we don't stand by and do nothing if that kicks off, although I'm pretty confident they could more than hold their own.

Well the defender does get a defensive bonus, and Ukraine does have some firepower. Russia has been fairly adamant about it though. And what if Belarus sides with Russia in a conflict?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_Russia_and_Belarus

 

[camineet]

We actually went against the Russian during WWI, in a way. When the monarchy was overthrown, the West supported the losing side in the ensuing conflict. That prolly led to the Russian distrust of us, which was further cemented in WWII.

EDIT: I'm not really sure why I quoted you...

during WWII, we extended 'Lend-Lease' to the Soviets. U.S. sent Russia planes, tanks, fuel, etc to combat Nazi Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union.

 

[Chiggs]

And we're to trust Republicans with armed conflicts, especially after these past 8 years?

When's the last time a Democratic president handled any sort of conflict with competence?

This is a serious question, btw. I would say Kennedy.

 

[mre]

What are you talking about, UGA is preseason #1. WOOF WOOF!

I just want you to know that it hurts me when you make me hate you.

 

[zoku88]

during WWII, we extended 'Lend-Lease' to the Soviets. U.S. sent Russia planes, tanks, fuel, etc to combat Nazi Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union.

But then again, the way we maneuvered showed an obvious distrust of them, which they would have been dumb not pick up on.

 

[speculawyer]

There are aspects I like about both candidates but if we're headed towards an unavoidable war with Russia, I'd like McCain to be at the helm. I still think diplomacy will be able to get us out of this clusterfuck though.

Unavoidable war with Russia? WTF? I can't see how we could get involved in this war at all. We don't have the troops/equipment, we don't have the money, and we don't have much interest.

I'd much rather be with Obama since he'd be far less likely to cook up some stupid reason to get involved militarily.

 

[camineet]

But then again, the way we maneuvered showed an obvious distrust of them, which they would have been dumb not pick up on.

True, and at the end of WWII, the U.S. "warned" Stalin and the Soviets by nuking Japan, twice.

 

[speculawyer]

When's the last time a Democratic president handled any sort of conflict with competence?

Clinton did just fine with the Balkan conflicts.

 

[Tamanon]

I'm pretty sure you can't boil down politicans from either party as being better or worse at handling foreign conflicts, both parties want the same thing, to strengthen America. It's up to the individual pols to go about that.

 

[GenericPseudonym]

There are aspects I like about both candidates but if we're headed towards an unavoidable war with Russia, I'd like McCain to be at the helm. I still think diplomacy will be able to get us out of this clusterfuck though.

What the fuck?

 

[Chiggs]

both parties want the same thing, to strengthen America.

I'm guessing both sides might have something to say about that.

I'd much rather be with Obama since he'd be far less likely to cook up some stupid reason to get involved militarily.

I'd much rather be with McCain, because he'd be far less likely to shy away from confrontation. Not that I want some war with Russia, because that would damage both countries, but I don't want some lame duck at the helm, either. And don't think this is about right vs. left. Wesley Clark was pretty fucking hardcore when it came to Russia in 1999.

 

[Rur0ni]

avaya, I don't see any sign of Ukraine having any sort of head up over Georgia in regards to NATO membership. I've been reading quite a bit and I see France, Germany, and Britain oppose both of them. Neither Ukraine nor Georgia have been accepted into the "Membership Action Plan", the vehicle which leads to NATO membership.

"The fact that NATO can be defeated in Afghanistan puts the Ukraine-Georgia question far down on the list of priorities," says Thomas Gomart, director of Russian Affairs at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) in Paris. "For us, the future of NATO is not enlargement. It is Afghanistan, Afghanistan, Afghanistan.

"If we get Georgia or Ukraine into NATO, it transfers the nature of the alliance from military to a political club.... We have enough trouble in the world without adding tensions with Russia," he adds.

As for Ukraine, polling suggests there is very little interest among the populace and military to join NATO. It's the leadership that's pushing for it.

Ukraine has been in dialogue with NATO since 2005; this January, President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko stated its readiness. Skeptics cite low opinion polls (17 percent), close ties with Russia's military, and an eastern section of the country that is solidly pro-Moscow. Advocates say an invitation would change the polling data.

It would appear the focus of NATO is on Afghanistan.

 

[zoku88]

True, and at the end of WWII, the U.S. "warned" Stalin and the Soviets by nuking Japan, twice.

I was afraid of saying that which is why I didn't actually say anything specific in my post :lol :lol

I wouldn't really want to derail this thread in case that you didn't agree. :lol

 

[Chiggs]

avaya, I don't see any sign of Ukraine having any sort of head up over Georgia in regards to NATO membership. I've been reading quite a bit and I see France, Germany, and Britain oppose both of them. Neither Ukraine nor Georgia have been accepted into the "Membership Action Plan", the vehicle which leads to NATO membership.

Here's a funny quote from the Christian Science Monitor from March of this year:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0328/p01s01-woeu.html

Advocate nations argue – former Warsaw Pact states particularly vociferously – that a blanket denial of the bids will have major geostrategic implications: It will thwart the fragile democratic "color revolutions" in those states, allow Moscow time to bully the states back into its control, and constitute a veto by Russia over NATO membership.

I assure you, Ukraine's entry into Nato is suddenly on the fast track.

As for Ukraine, polling suggests there is very little interest among the populace and military to join NATO. It's the leadership that's pushing for it.

Hmmm...I wonder if recent events have changed the public's interest?

 

[einhard]

Clinton did just fine with the Balkan conflicts.

Do you mean Kosovo? Yeah, that air campaign really halted Milosevic. Wasn't it Finnish and Russian diplomats that eventually brought an end to that conflict?