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[Renekton]

Some crystal ball fun time, how well do you think MEA will sell? Myself I'm guessing launch sales bigger than DAI but overall be a mild internal disappointment, maybe around half of Witcher 3. I really don't remember which game had so much apathy and antipathy built up before launch, this all seems unprecedented.

Things going for it
Loyal ME fanbase
Unique setting and subgenre combination that no games match
Carry-forward goodwill from ME3: Multiplayer
Something for Xbox One action RPG fans

Things against
Lukewarm to negative reception from core gamers to marketing materials
Animation fiasco surpassed ACU meme levels
RPG fan antipathy to Bioware (especially from RPG Codex)
General core gamer antipathy to EA and Origin
Serious genre fatigue
Insanely strong competition from Zelda, Horizon, Nier, Torment, etc
Massive overhang from ME3 ending disappointment

 

[Dragonslayer_023]

What is this animation fiasco?

 

[Random17]

Minimum 4 million, good reviews + WOM (best case) 10 million over its lifetime across all three platforms.

 

[LewieP]

I think it will do fine, but can't see it doing much better than previous entries.

 

[Xando]

Gaf definitely is the place to predict AAA sales

 

[ArmGunar]

Anyone can recall the sales of this franchise before ?

 

[Lashley]

it'll do very well

 

[CommandThrower]

You mentioned about "half of Witcher 3's sales", I think I can agree with that.


I think a lot of folks are waiting for reviews. If they're high, then I think sales of this will be very big. It's been five years since a new Mass Effect game, and I don't think ME3 soured that many people on ME: A.


Personally, I think the game looks pretty good. I'm really eager to play it, and I was initially lukewarm on it.

 

[Nev]

I don't think it'll have a particularly great reception. The whole thing just seemed to go from "pre-alpha/tech demo" to 100 gameplay videos and launch trailer in like what? 6 months?

I remember when they announced the game and I first saw the in-engine concept and thinking this'd be at least 3-4 years away if they really wanted to achieve what they wanted then it's suddenly here and it looks too similar to the previous games.

Something tells me the rush was real. We'll see.

 

[Machina]

True Sci Fi RPG's like Mass Effect don't come around all that often at all. It'll do really well.

 

[Staf]

Some crystal ball fun time, how well do you think MEA will sell? Myself I'm guessing launch sales bigger than DAI but overall be a mild internal disappointment, maybe around half of Witcher 3. I really don't remember which game had so much apathy and antipathy built up before launch, this all seems unprecedented.

Things going for it
Loyal ME fanbase
Unique setting and subgenre combination that no games match
Carry-forward goodwill from ME3: Multiplayer
Something for Xbox One action RPG fans

Things against
Lukewarm to negative reception from core gamers to marketing materials
Animation fiasco surpassed ACU meme levels
RPG fan antipathy to Bioware (especially from RPG Codex)
General core gamer antipathy to EA and Origin
Serious genre fatigue
Insanely strong competition from Zelda, Horizon, Nier, Torment, etc
Massive overhang from ME3 ending disappointment

Pretty fair analysis. I'm looking forward to ME:A like crazy but around half of Witcher 3 seems likely i guess? Witcher 3 sold 10 million right?

 

[SargerusBR]

Gaf definitely is the place to predict AAA sales

This. Games like Nier and Torment are a non-existent threat to a big IP like Mass Effect

 

[Infinite_Daremo]

I think it will sell a solid C/10.

 

[shinobi602]

Things against
Lukewarm to negative reception from core gamers to marketing materials
Animation fiasco surpassed ACU meme levels
RPG fan antipathy to Bioware (especially from RPG Codex)
General core gamer antipathy to EA and Origin
Serious genre fatigue
Insanely strong competition from Zelda, Horizon, Nier, Torment, etc
Massive overhang from ME3 ending disappointment

It'll do great.

I think you're really overestimating the effects of some of these things. Reception is mostly positive. A contingent of some people on NeoGAF isn't really the best representation and we all know this.

Almost every video on YouTube has an overwhelming like to dislike ratio and the general consumer isn't thinking about "EA and Origin" or freeze framing and analyzing every mouth and glitch with every video. Bioware still has mass appeal.

 

[SuperBanana]

The Mass Effect series has never been a huge seller. It's done well but not giant numbers. I'd say 5 million for this. That's 1.5 million more than ME3.

 

[TheDarkKnight774]

It will sell great

 

[Vintage]

Depends on reviews, but I think mediocre. Games like Horizon and Zelda occupied most of the hype now.

And the game itself looks like a solid ME sequel, but it depends on that too much - new players or players who are bored with ME games don't see anything exciting.

 

[AndyVirus]

EA themselves predict about 6-9m. Could be the best selling game of the year until the big boys come out in the fall. Just depends on Wildlands' legs, and if Horizon can get close to Uncharted 4 numbers.

 

[Kudo]

It'll do well enough to not worry about it not doing well enough.

 

[Exploratory]

NeoGAF on how well a game is going to sell reminds me of pundits on how well Trump would do in the election. Basically I'm just not paying attention to how we receive games because GAF is so far off from the average gamer now.

 

[PeskyToaster]

Citing Nier and Torment as major competitors? Those games are non-existent and GAF aka core gamer feelings towards a game are a horrible indicator for sales performance.

 

[Blobbers]

7.25 million lifetime

 

[Damn Silly]

A lot of people are cautious - with some understandable reasons - so it could depend on reviews/influencers.

One point I take exception to is the animation fiasco being bigger than Unity's. The Unity stuff was everywhere at the time. Hell, it was even news on the BBC website.

 

[Falchion]

I hate to say this, but I think it'll be very dependent on reviews and of course word of mouth from places like NeoGaf. If critics come out and say it's fantastic, I think it'll get a lot of momentum, but if it's greeted with a 'it' s fine', it'll largely get passed over.

 

[Revolutionary]

It's going to sell extremely well. Too well, even... and the series will continue it's downward spiral into a mindless action game as a result.
But seriously, the desire for this game is palpable among the general audience (twitch chats, Twitter, etc). The game is going to do huge.

 

[ErMerGerd]

Either way I've got my pre order locked in and I'm fucking ready. Just need to finish Horizon in the meantime

 

[Beelzebubs]

It'll sell well, especially on PC and XBox. There aren't really any competitors other than Horizon and Zelda on different platforms and Witches 3 is a relatively old title now. Not going to put a number on it, but I think it will do about the same as ME3 due to the ending controversy souring a lot of fans to that particular game.

Hell, I pre-ordered which is something I very rarely do.

 

[jesu]

Depends on reviews, but I think mediocre. Games like Horizon and Zelda occupied most of the hype now.

And the game itself looks like a solid ME sequel, but it depends on that too much - new players or players who are bored with ME games don't see anything exciting.

Ghost Recon Wildlands did alright.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

It's going to sell very well, places like RPG Codex mean bupkis when it comes to mainstream gaming sales

 

[Slaythe]

I bought the PC version.

Honestly I bought it blind. What I've seen looked okay, not exciting.

I trust them ? They fucked me hard with the last Dragon Age, I wanted to take a gamble now. If they botched this I'm done with Bioware for good.


I'm playing through Horizon and Zelda, they are never gonna top that. But I like the way Mass Effect games have their own universes going.

It's probably not gonna sell as much as they hope for though.

 

[Black Mantis]

I'd say at least 5 million.

 

[Officer.Sanchez]

It's going to sell more than ME3 but less than Galaxy of Fantasy.

 

[Mifec]

It'll do great.

I think you're really overestimating the effects of some of these things. Reception is mostly positive. A contingent of some people on NeoGAF isn't really the best representation and we all know this.

Almost every video on YouTube has an overwhelming like to dislike ratio and the general consumer isn't thinking about "EA and Origin" or freeze framing and analyzing every mouth and glitch with every video. Bioware still has mass appeal.

Pretty much this. It's gonna sell great, maybe not W3 numbers but close.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

I think it will sell decent, but nothing amazing. Am I missing something or is their not much hype for this game compared to the other ones?

 

[pmj]

Most people don't care about Nier. Nobody cares about Torment. They're very different games anyway. I'm playing Torment right now and it's a good game, but in no way is it competing with Mass Effect.

I think it'll do fine.

 

[Zolo]

I expect it'll sell about in lines with what EA expects.

 

[Heckler456]

OP irl

I expect it to do well. I too actually worry about the negative tone concerning the game here on GAF... But then I look at the total amount of views those types of threads get, and I realize how insignificant it really is.

 

[SomedayTheFire]

Things against
Lukewarm to negative reception from core gamers to marketing materials
Animation fiasco surpassed ACU meme levels
RPG fan antipathy to Bioware (especially from RPG Codex)
General core gamer antipathy to EA and Origin
Serious genre fatigue
Insanely strong competition from Zelda, Horizon, Nier, Torment, etc
Massive overhang from ME3 ending disappointment

Quite well. None of those "Things Against" column matter a damn to the average consumer. In fact two directly contradict each other, "genre fatigue" and "strong competition".

 

[Tony Redgrave]

Hardcore grievances aside, it'll do very well. It looks good, seems to play well and will most assuredly have a meaty campaign. Also includes a fun MP mode with free updates which not a lot of CRPGs (or ARPGs, whatever) do.

Also, not many AAA sci-fi games like this out there so many people will probably jump in, moreso if they know something about the original trilogy (no, a poor ending does not invalidate all the well-earned good faith the OT generated).

 

[Corpekata]

I think you are overselling the competition. Not that many of the games aren't great, but only really Zelda, Horizon, and Ghost Recon are on the radar of ME, and 2/3 of those are exclusives, leaving PC and Xbox gamers with more room on their plate.

It's going to do fine. It's also positioned fairly well, with very few big games coming out after it (though I imagine it will share a bit of crossover with Persona 5).

I play WoW with a bunch of casual gamers (as in, they play nothing but WoW, typically) and a few of them are super amped for it (and have no clue about the general apathy toward Bioware among the hardcore) and have given notice they will barely be around when it launches. Of course, that's purely anecdotal, but Bioware have a pretty dedicated following outside of the typical gamersphere.

 

[m_dorian]

While having very little faith in modern Bioware's writing, I am going to get it. I just do not know how soon but i usually wait a few days, read people's impressions first

Spoiler

IGN 9,5/10

.
I am itched but i have a feeling that ME will disappoint me again.

 

[Servbot24]

This. Games like Nier and Torment are a non-existent threat to a big IP like Mass Effect

I don't know, Mass Effect is a "well there's nothing else coming out, guess I'll resort to this and it will be okay" type of series. The fact that there are plenty of great games coming out means I don't have to give ME much thought. That's just anecdotal of course.

 

[dr_rus]

Things against
Serious genre fatigue

Ehm, where? The only thing which MEA has going for itself from my perspective is the fact that there is precisely zero other sci fi AAA RPGs around. I will most probably buy it just because of that.

 

[DrArchon]

Oh I'm sure more hardcore sites like RPG Codex and GAF will absolutely loathe Andromeda, but I think it'll sell 6-7 million units easily. Casuals don' care about how much of an RPG the game is or how good the writing is. They care that it's a new Mass Effect game.

It could end up with a full 20 fewer points on Metacritic than either Horizon or Zelda and it'll still sell more than both of them put together.

 

[Whompa02]

Couple million for sure. Not as big as Mass Effect 2 or 3 though.

 

[Xando]

I don't know, Mass Effect is a "well there's nothing else coming out, guess I'll resort to this and it will be okay" type of series. The fact that there are plenty of great games coming out means I don't have to give ME much thought. That's just anecdotal of course.

Come on. Games like Nier or Persona will be happy to sell in a life time what games like Mass Effect sell within two weeks

It's insane how much GAF overestimates appeal of these japanese games compared to AAA heavy hitters from the likes of Ubisoft or EA

 

[Succinct Verbosity]

Pretty well, but well below franchise expectations.

 

[Magic Mushroom]

It'll do well enough. I'll wait for reviews myself before taking the plunge.

 

[Exploratory]

I don't know, Mass Effect is a "well there's nothing else coming out, guess I'll resort to this and it will be okay" type of series. The fact that there are plenty of great games coming out means I don't have to give ME much thought. That's just anecdotal of course.

Not critically or commercially. Do you mean just to you?

 

[RedlineRonin]

Some crystal ball fun time, how well do you think MEA will sell? Myself I'm guessing launch sales bigger than DAI but overall be a mild internal disappointment, maybe around half of Witcher 3. I really don't remember which game had so much apathy and antipathy built up before launch, this all seems unprecedented.

Things going for it
Loyal ME fanbase
Unique setting and subgenre combination that no games match
Carry-forward goodwill from ME3: Multiplayer
Something for Xbox One action RPG fans

Things against
Lukewarm to negative reception from core gamers to marketing materials
Animation fiasco surpassed ACU meme levels
RPG fan antipathy to Bioware (especially from RPG Codex)
General core gamer antipathy to EA and Origin
Serious genre fatigue
Insanely strong competition from Zelda, Horizon, Nier, Torment, etc
Massive overhang from ME3 ending disappointment

It'll do great.

I think you're really overestimating the effects of some of these things. Reception is mostly positive. A contingent of some people on NeoGAF isn't really the best representation and we all know this.

Almost every video on YouTube has an overwhelming like to dislike ratio and the general consumer isn't thinking about "EA and Origin" or freeze framing and analyzing every mouth and glitch with every video. Bioware still has mass appeal.

Yup, I totally agree here. GAF can be a huge echo chamber at times.

I think most of those negatives aren't even applicable outside of most small (relative to how many copies the game will sell) gaming forums.

"massive overhang"? People outside of enuthusiast forums aren't hung up on how a 5 year old game ended.

antipathy to EA/Origin? BF1 did fine, TF2 did fine, Madden always does fine. EA/Origin is fine. Despite the game being made by Bioware, do people really not buy stuff because it's EA? Again, outside of small gaming forums, I don't think so.

Genre fatigue is only a function of how unoriginal the game is/will be. Horizon just showed us that. Zelda just showed us that. Can't hardly picture a genre more "fatigued" than open world, yet both games did fine. Maybe, maybe, series fatigue. But even then, it's been five years. that's awhile.

Strong competition? Yup. Lots of good games out there, and for most people, just because there are more good ones, doesn't necessarily mean their gaming budgets triple for the month.

Marketing materials? Eh, i've been fine with most of what i've seen. I think there's a lot we don't know yet (and won't until release) and it seems like the planets are massive and there will be lots to do and explore (despite the "handful" of explorable planets).

Animation stuff is what it is. As was pointed out before in other threads, ME never had fantastic facial animations and it didn't stop those from being successful. And it's largely been the same gifs being beaten to death on GAF over and over, so it's hardly indicative of the entire game.

I think it'll do just fine on its own merits, with the big question mark being how much money people have left to spend on games by the end of March.