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"I helped create the GOP tax myth. Trump is wrong: Tax cuts don’t equal growth."

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Four decades ago, while working for Rep. Jack Kemp (R-N.Y.), I had a hand in creating the Republican tax myth. Of course, it didn’t seem like a myth at that time — taxes were rising rapidly because of inflation and bracket creep, the top tax rate was 70 percent and the economy seemed trapped in stagflation with no way out. Tax cuts, at that time, were an appropriate remedy for the economy’s ills.

Wednesday, President Trump argued that “our country and our economy cannot take off” without the kind of tax reform he proposes. Last week, Republican economist Arthur Laffer said, “If you cut that [corporate] tax rate to 15 percent, it will pay for itself many times over. … This will bring in probably $1.5 trillion net by itself.”

That’s wishful thinking. So is most Republican rhetoric around tax cutting. In reality, there’s no evidence that a tax cut now would spur growth.

The Reagan tax cut did have a positive effect on the economy, but the prosperity of the ’80s is overrated in the Republican mind. In fact, aggregate real gross domestic product growth was higher in the ’70s — 37.2 percent vs. 35.9 percent.

Moreover, GOP tax mythology usually leaves out other factors that also contributed to growth in the 1980s: First was the sharp reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. The fed funds rate fell by more than half, from about 19 percent in July 1981 to about 9 percent in November 1982. Second, Reagan’s defense buildup and highway construction programs greatly increased the federal government’s purchases of goods and services. This is textbook Keynesian economics.

The flip-side of tax cut mythology is the notion that tax increases are an economic disaster — the reason, in theory, every Republican in Congress voted against the tax increase proposed by Bill Clinton in 1993. Yet the 1990s was the most prosperous decade in recent memory. At 37.3 percent, aggregate real GDP growth in the 1990s exceeded that in the 1980s.

Despite huge tax cuts almost annually during the George W. Bush administration that cost the Treasury trillions in revenue, according to the Congressional Budget Office, growth collapsed in the first decade of the 2000s. Real GDP rose just 19.5 percent, well below its ’90s rate.

We saw another test of the Republican tax myth in 2013, after President Barack Obama allowed some of the Bush tax cuts to expire, raising the top income tax rate to its current 39.6 percent from 35 percent. The economy grew nicely afterward and the stock market has boomed — up around 10,000 points over the past five years.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...th-trump-is-wrong-tax-cuts-dont-equal-growth/

Lots more at the link. Well worth a read.

It's amazing to me how this tax cut zealotry was formed due to the Reagan years. I mean, even if you ignore the other factors that led to growth during that time, it's not like everything was hunky dory. The national debt was tripled, the rate of job growth was slower than both the Carter years and the Clinton years, and the tax cuts failed to do the one thing which was supposed to be the main reason it was allowed to pass: it failed to pay for itself. The involvement of the Fed is also something I'm surprised I rarely see anyone mention when they're rebutting trickle-down economics. The recessions that happened in the late Carter years and the early Reagan years were SPECIFICALLY due to the feds raising interest rates. Then once they lowered it, holy shit, the economy started chugging again. And unless I'm mistaken, there has been no point in (at least) U.S. history where cutting taxes led to more revenue with the possible exception of the Kennedy tax cuts (which dropped the top rate from 91% to 77%), though he also closed loopholes and increased domestic spending.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Furthermore, as I've argued in the past, one of the central rationales for tax cuts make no damn sense to begin with. Republicans say that if you give a job creator a tax cut, they'll use that money to hire more people. Now sure, it seems like that's a reasonable economic argument, but that's not how reality works!

If I run a business, and my business is doing incredibly shitty, and nobody is buying whatever products I'm selling, how is a tax cut going to encourage me to hire more workers, if I don't need any workers since the business is already slow to begin with?

My man, Nick Hanauer (a REAL job creator) said it best: businesses don't hire workers because they want to. They hire people because they have to.
 
D

Deleted member 80556

Unconfirmed Member
And unless I'm mistaken, there has been no point in (at least) U.S. history where cutting taxes led to more revenue with the possible exception of the Kennedy tax cuts (which dropped the top rate from 91% to 77%), though he also closed loopholes and increased domestic spending.

I was just about to point this while reading your post actually! But you kind of explain why the economy probably grew. I actually don't know, but I bet that the Reagan era probably saw heavy cuts in spending.

At least Kennedy knew that he needed to spend more to get his economic agenda going. He was supposedly deficit-averse, but he wasn't dumb.

Also, thanks for the article! Will read. I love to learn more about taxes.
 

Davilmar

Member
Doesn't really mean much to me, considering how many decades local, state and federal officials under the Republican brand got elected on this nonsense economic idea. That is very convenient for him to be speaking out now, after years of damage with a dysfunctional tax regime in the United States. Hell, even speaking out during the election last year would have been better than speaking out now. The damage is done, his words mean nothing and he should be judged harshly by the pages of history.
 

boingball

Member
If a tax cuts pay for themselves and the lower the tax rate the better why not go to 0% taxes? Or even better, negative taxes, everyone gets money!
 
Furthermore, as I've argued in the past, one of the central rationales for tax cuts make no damn sense to begin with. Republicans say that if you give a job creator a tax cut, they'll use that money to hire more people. Now sure, it seems like that's a reasonable economic argument, but that's not how reality works!

If I run a business, and my business is doing incredibly shitty, and nobody is buying whatever products I'm selling, how is a tax cut going to encourage me to hire more workers, if I don't need any workers since the business is already slow to begin with?

My man, Nick Hanauer (a REAL job creator) said it best: businesses don't hire workers because they want to. They hire people because they have to.

And where does demand come from and how does it best get incentivized? Via government spending when the private sector is lacking. Keynesian policies in practice work. There has been far too great of a reliance on monetary policy alone in recent years, as monetary policy mostly helps retain a currency's value by mitigating inflation. This primarily helps people who already have a lot of money and investments. It is anti-redistributive and anti-labor. Government spending and controlled inflation actually helps the poor, working, and middle classes the most in an environment where consolidation of wealth and power is rampant, as it is in our neoliberal global economy.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Furthermore, as I've argued in the past, one of the central rationales for tax cuts make no damn sense to begin with. Republicans say that if you give a job creator a tax cut, they'll use that money to hire more people. Now sure, it seems like that's a reasonable economic argument, but that's not how reality works!

If I run a business, and my business is doing incredibly shitty, and nobody is buying whatever products I'm selling, how is a tax cut going to encourage me to hire more workers, if I don't need any workers since the business is already slow to begin with?

My man, Nick Hanauer (a REAL job creator) said it best: businesses don't hire workers because they want to. They hire people because they have to.

I mean, this is econ101 level shit. It literally makes no sense at all given the realities of business and economics.

Tax cuts do have an economic multiplier effect, but it's a very small one and they hit diminishing returns very quickly. Stimulus spending on the other hand has a much higher economic multiplier and takes longer to hit those diminishing returns.

In short, GOP economic policy for the past 30-ish has been based in thinking that would cause you to flunk the most basic of economics tests.
 
Daang there was a time where the top tax bracket was 91%? That's crazy. Then again, nobody probably paid that rate with all the tax deductions and loopholes.
 
I remember an episode of Freakonomics podcast where they asked financial experts how they would reinvent world finance if they had the chance.

For nearly all of them, the first answer was major tax reform. Too many people who should be paying taxes aren't.
 
Reagan presidency never fails to haunt and fuck us over. It left us with so much bullshit baggage, and republicans keep fucking fetshizing and severing its "legacy."
 

Ploid 3.0

Member
Reagan presidency never fails to haunt and fuck us over. It left us with so much bullshit baggage, and republicans keep fucking fetshizing and severing its "legacy."

Imagining how Trump's presidency will haunt us in the future as well as now. So much damage to do, so much time to do it.

You mean St. Reagan was wrong?

Wrong?

mvwSLEm.jpg
 

JavyOO7

Member
But the other side of the coin is that it seems like America hates tax increases. But that's how you keep your vital services instead of them getting cuts "just because". It's so frustrating that I think I want to cry.
 
I mean, this is econ101 level shit. It literally makes no sense at all given the realities of business and economics.

Tax cuts do have an economic multiplier effect, but it's a very small one and they hit diminishing returns very quickly. Stimulus spending on the other hand has a much higher economic multiplier and takes longer to hit those diminishing returns.

In short, GOP economic policy for the past 30-ish has been based in thinking that would cause you to flunk the most basic of economics tests.

That's not necessarily true -- the problem is deeper than "refusing to abide by econ 101."

There are times where the econ 101 thing to do is the wrong thing to do, and there were paradigm shifts across every school of economics consistently through the entire 20th century.

There are times where tax breaks work. There are times when they won't work.

There's times when stimulus would work, and times when stimulus would cause a negative response. There are a lot of variables to consider before you make any one choice, so the rule of thumb is this;

"If your solution is one-size-fits-all, it's not a solution."

This is to say, if you claim that every problem can be fixed by say, tax breaks, or perhaps, wages rising...then you are being ignorant at best.and disingenuous all the way down.

The majority of economists working in labor policy wind up wanting a higher minimum wage because more purchasing power outstrips the losses from businesses, and that demand will feed into a virtuous cycle a la the multiplier effect. However, very few of those economists will also say that forcing a wage hike will be appropriate for EVERY problem.

Our solutions need to be tailored per industry, per problem, and balanced for the costs of doing so for all affected industries...and the cost of not doing so.

That tends to run into problems when you're playing "match the shape block up with the shape hole" and you've only got rectangular prisms.

So no, tax cut/austerity measure people aren't bad because they want tax cuts -- tax cuts can be useful sometimes. They're bad because they want to treat every problem with tax cuts, all the time. There was a string of post-recession idiocy where they were calling for raising the federal funds rate and lowering taxes which, er..is why everything was fucked at the beginning of the 80s, too.

Basically, a bunch of ignorant people got the wrong idea, and a bunch of much smarter people decided to grift the ignorant people. by abusing that wrong idea. Tax cuts for all, REMEMBER THE ROARING 80s?!

When in reality, it was all caused by bad Fed policy or, "what happens when you don't tailor your solution to your problem," and t hen the subsequent REVERSAL of that policy.

So my point spelled out is that the failures and leaps of logic tax-cut disciples are making wouldn't fail their economic tests, because they would have failed out of class long before, or decided that, since they didn't get hit by a car one day when crossing a busy street, they wouldn't get hit by a car the next.

But that's okay, because in reality, it was never about doing the right thing with regards to economic growth, and especially growth amongst the middle and lower classes. It was all about the grift.
 

matthewuk

Member
For tidy sum, we could negotiate a trade. You can have our conservatives. There feckless and make mess of things but there not evangelical or zealously ideological. We will take your GOP, why? Because as soon as they try their crap they won't be able to get out of the country fast enough. Did I tell you we are really really looking forward to trumps visit?. It's strange he keeps puting it off.
 
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