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June 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 12th

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CosmicQueso

Member
That MCV article is pretty funny. Hope they don't hurt themselves patting themselves on the back.

EEDAR not being mentioned makes it even more funny since the EEDAR guys are the ones doing a lot of the heavy lifting on this from what I've heard.

slavesnyder said:
Thanks. Will be interesting to see if the big guys will join. There really seems to be no benefit here. And NPD won't pay them I guess as in the end they want to make money with the data, not lose some.
Click to expand...

Actually, participating publishers have to pay to access this data, even if they also provide data.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
slavesnyder said:
Thanks. Will be interesting to see if the big guys will join. There really seems to be no benefit here. And NPD won't pay them I guess as in the end they want to make money with the data, not lose some.
Click to expand...

I'm just imagining a scenario where one of the big 3 releases a big AAA game in 2017 it fails to chart in the top 10 because it is going up against games that have both retail and digital, and it looks like the game bombed.

Or even worse is when, say Microsoft start to share data and Sony doesn't, that's even less chances for a Sony title to debut high in the top 10, if at all, while Microsoft's big launches do show up. Then you'd get the narrative that Sony's games don't sell at all while Microsoft's do. In the long term, it'd turn into a decision on whether to share data to not have a negative perception or not.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Don't know how many of you follow fellow gaffer ekim, but yesterday they posted that a Gears 4 bundle will be announced soon that'll launch next to the game and that there will be a 1TB Halo 5 bundle.

CnFv2mtWAAEhK1k.jpg:large
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Welfare said:
CnFv2mtWAAEhK1k.jpg:large
Click to expand...
I like S box design far more than the old green one.

Let's see if they will continue pumping out bundles as they did with the old model. Gears and Halo make sense of course. 1TB for halo seems strange. It's an old game, even if it's halo. Put it on the 500gig and it's fine.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
slavesnyder said:
I like S box design far more than the old green one.

Let's see if they will continue pumping out bundles as they did with the old model. Gears and Halo make sense of course. 1TB for halo seems strange. It's an old game, even if it's halo. Put it on the 500gig and it's fine.
Click to expand...

I think having Halo bundled in the 1TB makes sense. It's the intermediate option and they can keep the $299 sku without a game to justify the purchase of the more expensive bundle. Halo 5 is also is smart choice because it is old and can make back money off of the REQ system.

Apparently the 2TB bundle is meant to be limited anyway, so once those are gone the 1TB is the most expensive sku. Also, if the 2TB actually is limited, the new Gears console could be 2TB at either $399 or $449. So the pricing model could be

500GB $299
1TB game bundle $349
Limited 2TB $399 - $449
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Welfare said:
I think having Halo bundled in the 1TB makes sense. It's the intermediate option and they can keep the $299 sku without a game to justify the purchase of the more expensive bundle. Halo 5 is also is smart choice because it is old and can make back money off of the REQ system.

Apparently the 2TB bundle is meant to be limited anyway, so once those are gone the 1TB is the most expensive sku. Also, if the 2TB actually is limited, the new Gears console could be 2TB at either $399 or $449. So the pricing model could be

500GB $299
1TB game bundle $349
Limited 2TB $399 - $449
Click to expand...
Thanks.
It's a nice candy to sweeten an upsell for people who want to purchase an XboxOne anyway.
Forme, it's just more about convincing people to buy an XboxOne at all. So making the base model more attractive would have been better.
Halo for 500
Gears for 1TB
Anyway. I can also follow your thinking
 
A

AnthonypUK

Member
Welfare said:
Microsoft start to share data and Sony doesn't, that's even less chances for a Sony title to debut high in the top 10, if at all, while Microsoft's big launches do show up. Then you'd get the narrative that Sony's games don't sell at all while Microsoft's do. In the long term, it'd turn into a decision on whether to share data to not have a negative perception or not.
Click to expand...

Microsoft, to share actual meaningful information this gen? heh
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Didn't see this get posted, so here. It's a compiled list of rounded NPD results for the 8th gen. Thanks Aqua!

rSsVT2G.png


Reasoning for rounding.

Aquamarine said:
Note: The reason that the numbers are rounded in my table is because there is inherent error within NPD Group data since they project at least 5% of the market using algorithms. The rounding that I've incorporated (to the nearest 10,000) sufficiently compensates for the error margins.
Click to expand...
 
A

Asd202

Member
Welfare said:
Didn't see this get posted, so here. It's a compiled list of rounded NPD results for the 8th gen. Thanks Aqua!

rSsVT2G.png


Reasoning for rounding.
Click to expand...

Wii U dropped like a rock. I knew it was bad but damn. I will probably crawl to 6 million LTD
(will it?)
in US but man what a bomb.
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
slavesnyder said:
1TB for halo seems strange. It's an old game, even if it's halo. Put it on the 500gig and it's fine.
Click to expand...

If you owned Halo 5 and knew what the file size of that game is now after all the patches, updates, game modes, etc.............1/2 the hard drive would be filled with the system OS and Halo 5 in a 500 gb model.

Ok, hyperbole

but not that much
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
watdaeff4 said:
If you owned Halo 5 and knew what the file size of that game is now after all the patches, updates, game modes, etc.............1/2 the hard drive would be filled with the system OS and Halo 5 in a 500 gb model.

Ok, hyperbole

but not that much
Click to expand...

Yeah, it's actually closer to 1/5th!
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Asd202 said:
Wii U dropped like a rock. I knew it was bad but damn. I will probably crawl to 6 million LTD
(will it?)
in US but man what a bomb.
Click to expand...

I think Nintendo said they were planning on shipping 800k Wii U's in total this fiscal year, so 6 million is impossible. Might end at 5.5m.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
[WIU] 32k
[XB1] 165k
[PS4] 273k
[3DS] 98k

CosmicQueso said:
Digital sales*

Also losing platform rankings in the charts btw.
Click to expand...

So I take this to mean that their digital estimates will be rather unreliable then?

Crazy that they would do away with platform splits but I suppose they might have to in exchange for whatever little digital info they are able to acquire. Seems like a pretty valuable bit of info to just stop reporting though. Kinda odd in my opinion.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
RexNovis said:
So I take this to mean that their digital estimates will be rather unreliable then?
Click to expand...

Not at all. The digital numbers that will be reported will be very solid. It's just that there are only 3 digital storefronts being reported on, and only for a handful of publishers.

RexNovis said:
Crazy that they would do away with platform splits but I suppose they might have to in exchange for whatever little digital info they are able to acquire. Seems like a pretty valuable bit of info to just stop reporting though. Kinda odd in my opinion.
Click to expand...

With some titles having digital and others not, the platform rankings in the top 10 would be unreliable. One could easily argue that having some titles with digital and others without make the top 10 itself unreliable. Both statements are true.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
Not at all. The digital numbers that will be reported will be very solid. It's just that there are only 3 digital storefronts being reported on, and only for a handful of publishers.



With some titles having digital and others not, the platform rankings in the top 10 would be unreliable. One could easily argue that having some titles with digital and others without make the top 10 itself unreliable. Both statements are true.
Click to expand...

Wow yea not having universal coverage/reporting for digital will certainly skew the results and thus make software rankings less reliable. Can't believe they would start reporting figures without the info from all necessary sources. While I have long been eager for NPD to report digital figures I certainly did not anticipate or want this sort of data skewing half measure. What a disappointment.

Rymuth said:
Welcome back, Rex. Really feared you were gone for good, this time.
Click to expand...

Cheers! nope not yet albeit I seem entirely incapable of discerning the enforcement line these days. To be honest I'm no uncertain of what can be done aside from keeping posting to the absolute minimum going forward. With NPD threads being so slow these days it's hard not venturing out into more dangerous waters in search of discussion.
 
E

EdReedFan20

Member
Yikes! I didn't realize Wii U never cracked one million in a single month. Also, apart from December 2014, it hasn't cracked half a million in a single month and only five times did it crack a quarter of a million.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Very nice of aqua to post that. Hopefully it'll help when discussions get sidetracked on "winning" when we get more of a crowd in the threads around release. The "war" has been settled for a while, there's more interesting things to discuss.

Like how messed up the top 10 charts will be lol.

Aqua's been making great points about this. Because the detailed digital data will be only provided to participating publishers, leaks will be exceptionally rare.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Very nice of aqua to post that. Hopefully it'll help when discussions get sidetracked on "winning" when we get more of a crowd in the threads around release. The "war" has been settled for a while, there's more interesting things to discuss.

Like how messed up the top 10 charts will be lol.

Aqua's been making great points about this. Because the detailed digital data will be only provided to participating publishers, leaks will be exceptionally rare.
Click to expand...

So NPD will not have a separate channel for retail only, just retail+digital so leakers won't get access to those games? Right?
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Welfare said:
Will subscribers that are not a part of Activision, EA, etc continue to get retail numbers for those publishers games, or do they get a number that is the sum of retail and digital only?
Click to expand...

So there's a flag in the feed for physical vs digital sales. Participating pubs will see everything broken out by packaged and digital while standard subscribers will see packaged only.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
CosmicQueso said:
So there's a flag in the feed for physical vs digital sales. Participating pubs will see everything broken out by packaged and digital while standard subscribers will see packaged only.
Click to expand...

Any chance that one of our generous SalesGaf leakers are privy to those Participating Publishers version? Or are they all coming from outside of gaming and getting NPD for other purposes? (Note: please do not answer if it will get you in trouble)
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Welfare said:
Amazon Prime Day had very good XB1 console deals. Here were 3. The Division one was $299, other two $279.
Click to expand...

I know lol, is obvius why XBO is so high now (is happen lot of times).

What's with 3DS? There are no promotion for it, though is pretty high right now.

Just saying, before those XBO promotion started, it was easy the best selling system, like there were 3 SKUs in TOP 100, with the Black version in TOP 20.
 
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