Novelty is going to sell Kinect at the outset. None of the issues brought up in these threads are going to have an impact...at first.
Long term however, I don't know. I think it'll probably do well. It's not for the hardcore let's face it. If that Kinectimals thing, for example, catches on with kids especially young girls, and "all my friends have it", then forget it, Kinect is going to sell by the boatload. Same thing if that dance game or a fitness game catches on with moms and families.
I think Move is going to do okay over the long term but it lacks the controller-free novelty. More accuracy isn't enough to get people too excited. We'll see how Sorcery turns out, that might be cool.
Still, it bothers me that MS got away with faking shit at their conference, and all this deceptive marketing. MS is Teflon Don this gen and it never ceases to amaze me the shit they get away with. Give em credit, they know how to market and play the game.
edit: Besides good games, it's one of the reasons the Wii did so well. It's like a piece of furniture that every family on the block must have. You're not an official family if you don't have a Wii. lol.