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Media Create Sales: Week 14, 2017 (Apr 03 - Apr 09)

Ōkami

Member
The Snack World will be a game whose performance will be interesting, its coming out on the usual Yokai Watch slot, so maybe no new Yokai for this year, Level 5 might not want attention to go away from it.

Dragon Quest and Splatoon in one month, its similar to when Dragon Quest IX and Monster Hunter 3 came out a couple of weeks apart in 2009.
 

Datschge

Member
I think 2P Minecraft is actually low key the most important announcement for long-term switch momentum that I wasn't expecting.

That has potential, a lot of it.
The local multiplayer push in general is rather low key so far. I guess Nintendo expects it to pick up steam naturally through word of mouth the more local multiplayer capable games are out.
 

noshten

Member
Minecraft in May was the big announcement for me - they are releasing it earlier than expected. First 6 months are shaping up with the best launch lineup of a system in Japan since the DS days.
 

Vena

Member
The local multiplayer push in general is rather low key so far. I guess Nintendo expects it to pick up steam naturally through word of mouth the more local multiplayer capable games are out.

It's one of the biggest WoM selling points as it is, so it's good to keep it low key because it really self explanatory.

But I was specifically looking at Minecraft that automatically has two player multiplayer thanks to the JoyCons. That's quite brilliant for a family selling point.
 

noshten

Member
In terms of Splatoon - date is not surprising to anyone.
Going to be interesting in the inevitable Splatoon 2 vs DQ sales discussion.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
I imagine the switch will eat up what's left of the vita fanbase that refuses to move to the PS4 by default.

Makes it intersting what franchises like God eater will be forced to do.
 
I'm still unsure of how Arms will do anywhere. I think the momentum of the Switch will help Arms more than Arms will help the momentum of the Switch.

I was hoping for a relatively fast Minecraft release, and it looks like Nintendo made good on that at least digitally.

My only other impression of the Direct was that Nintendo was clearing out the little announcements so that they wouldn't have to acknowledge them during the E3 Direct.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
I'm still unsure of how Arms will do anywhere. I think the momentum of the Switch will help Arms more than Arms will help the momentum of the Switch.

I was hoping for a relatively fast Minecraft release, and it looks like Nintendo made good on that at least digitally.

My only other impression of the Direct was that Nintendo was clearing out the little announcements so that they wouldn't have to acknowledge them during the E3 Direct.
I imagine an e3 tournament and stress test would help it a lot much like splatoon.
 

random25

Member
Splatoon 2 will win the marathon only if it becomes the next Monster Hunter.

I think it will be at some point. With the proven longevity of the first one and being released this early in the lifespan of Switch, signs are pretty positive for Splatoon 2 to do really well in the long run.
 

noshten

Member
Splat 2 will eventually sell better than any individual version of DQ11 though combined DQ11 will probably wi

Those are the top two games for 2017 but I think Splatoon 2 is going to be a top 5 game in 2018 and DQ11 doesn't have those types of tentacles

Anyhow the relaunch of the Switch for Japan has been scheduled and I expect the shipment for Splatoon 2/summer vacation to be much larger than the launch shipment.

300K Launch
200K MK8 Deluxe Launch
500K Splatoon Launch
1 Million December

2 Million without even factoring anything besides Launch/MK8 Deluxe/Splatoon 2/December and I'm not even being especially bullish on the system. I mean just Splatoon 2 should guarantee 1.5 million in Sales being conservative.
 
Those are the top two games for 2017 but I think Splatoon 2 is going to be a top 5 game in 2018 and DQ11 doesn't have those types of tentacles

Anyhow the relaunch of the Switch for Japan has been scheduled and I expect the shipment for Splatoon 2/summer vacation to be much larger than the launch shipment.

Oh true splatoon is the one with the tentacles but between the 3 versions i think we're looking at 3.6mil for DQ (2.1m 3ds, 900k ps4, 600k switch) i cant see splat2 reaching that, maybe 2.5 to 3m
 

noshten

Member
Oh true splatoon is the one with the tentacles but between the 3 versions i think we're looking at 3.6mil for DQ (2.1m 3ds, 900k ps4, 600k switch) i cant see splat2 reaching that, maybe 2.5 to 3m

You should not underestimate the biggest new IP making it's way to a handheld for the first time. I fully expect PokeGO type news stories coming about from people playing Splatoon 2 out in public, forming squads, recording the matches, self-organizing small tournaments etc.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Man..Snack Wold looks kinda bad from the brief Direct gameplay footage i saw. Def. one of the worst looking 3DS titles when it comes to the art direction. Low-res 3DS screen isnt helping.
 
You should not underestimate the biggest new IP making it's way to a handheld for the first time. I fully expect PokeGO type news stories coming about from people playing Splatoon 2 out in public, forming squads, recording the matches, self-organizing small tournaments etc.

I'm suggesting it could double its sales, but while your predictions are possible they pretty extreme
 

Ōkami

Member
I really wonder how cart prices are making third parties price their games, Nintendo's compression might be making them use the cheaper carts, or maybe they're willing to take the loss.

Fate Extella is just 180 yen cheaper than the PS4 version that came out last November, while Splatoon 2 is nearly 2000 yen cheaper than the original.

Maybe one of the reasons DQXI isn't coming out alongside the other versions is because SE wants the price of the carts to go down, Heroes I&II already uses the biggest carts and that game costs way too much, XI is 40GB on PS4 so it'd be huge on Switch either way, in order to get a similar profit margin as the other versions they'd need to price the game as a Super Famicom RPG for over 10.000 yen.
 

Alrus

Member
Has a new release ever caused a console to sell 500k in a week? Because I think such a prediction is absolutely insane.
 
Ōkami;233830726 said:
I really wonder how cart prices are making third parties price their games, Nintendo's compression might be making them use the cheaper carts, or maybe they're willing to take the loss.

Fate Extella is just 180 yen cheaper than the PS4 version that came out last November, while Splatoon 2 is nearly 2000 yen cheaper than the original.

Maybe one of the reasons DQXI isn't coming out alongside the other versions is because SE wants the price of the carts to go down, Heroes I&II already uses the biggest carts and that game costs way too much, XI is 40GB on PS4 so it'd be huge on Switch either way, in order to get a similar profit margin as the other versions they'd need to price the game as a Super Famicom RPG for over 10.000 yen.

If dq11 is 40gb on ps4 i dont doubt with compression that a 32gb switch cart would fit it, id say the delay is either down to it not being ready or SE thinking there's a better chance of double dippers this way
 
I'm suggesting it could double its sales, but while your predictions are possible they pretty extreme

I don't want to keep picking fights with Noshten, but literally all of his predictions are possible but pretty extreme.

Has a new release ever caused a console to sell 500k in a week? Because I think such a prediction is absolutely insane.

I am hoping he just means 500k in like a 4-5 week period surrounding Splatoon's launch, but I can't really tell.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Ōkami;233830726 said:
I really wonder how cart prices are making third parties price their games, Nintendo's compression might be making them use the cheaper carts, or maybe they're willing to take the loss.

Fate Extella is just 180 yen cheaper than the PS4 version that came out last November, while Splatoon 2 is nearly 2000 yen cheaper than the original.

Maybe one of the reasons DQXI isn't coming out alongside the other versions is because SE wants the price of the carts to go down, Heroes I&II already uses the biggest carts and that game costs way too much, XI is 40GB on PS4 so it'd be huge on Switch either way, in order to get a similar profit margin as the other versions they'd need to price the game as a Super Famicom RPG for over 10.000 yen.

Fate is priced that way because they know it won't sell large volumes regardless.
 
I think Splatoon 2 might surprise in Japan, as in being even more successful. Reason being Splatoon 2 supporting Switch's LAN function.
 

ggx2ac

Member
To my mind Nintendo has set things up pretty well up until Fall, especially in Japan:

Mario Kart- 4/28
Minecraft- 5/11 (digital)
ARMS- 6/16
Splatoon 7/21

Well well.

And people were doubting that the Switch would do better in hardware shipments worldwide in its launch year compared to the 3DS.

Yes, the 3DS was cheaper due to the price cut but all it had that saved it in the launch year was Mario Kart 7 and Super Mario 3D Land.

Kimishima made the right choices to miss the 2016 holidays for launching Switch to get software ready since he emphasised in an interview before how important having software momentum for the first year of the Switch would be needed to help it succeed.

Wii U was completely screwed in comparison with its constant software droughts due to Nintendo having difficulties developing HD games.
 

noshten

Member
Has a new release ever caused a console to sell 500k in a week? Because I think such a prediction is absolutely insane.

I'm hoping his prediction meant 500k over a few weeks otherwis that is slightly insane

Game launches to me are the first two weeks a game is available, hence only the 500K estimate. It will sell out it's first big shipment out by Sunday. Splatoon 2 coinciding with summer vacation is very much when things are going to become very loop-sided in Switch's favor compared to 3DS.

I don't want to keep picking fights with Noshten, but literally all of his predictions are possible but pretty extreme.

I am hoping he just means 500k in like a 4-5 week period surrounding Splatoon's launch, but I can't really tell.


For the 4-5 week period after Splatoon 2 and summer vacation is underway I'd honestly expect that number to be to be closer to 700K. People will pay Y35,000 to get their new Splatoon machine and December 2015 showed that Splatoon with another title is able to get people to buy an unattractive device despite it's future(I believe they sold over 300K Wii U's). Switch is a lot more desirable product for the Japanese market especially with Splatoon 2 and Minecraft/Zelda/MK8D/Arms as secondary options.
People continue to underestimate Splatoon, despite what I think are signs that the game is trending to become the biggest game in Japan for the foreseeable future.

It also depends though on stock levels and yeah nintendo will push a lot of extra stock for Splatoon 2's release but the system is still being sold by bloody raffles in many shops theres every chance they may be still selling everything they ship for the next couple of months so there probably wont be many (if any) already on the shelves to be bought

Can't wait for pre-orders to open especially with DQ11 being a direct comparison we can make since they release only a few weeks apart.
 
For the 4-5 week period after Splatoon 2 and summer vacation is underway I'd honestly expect that number to be to be closer to 700K. People will pay Y35,000 to get their new Splatoon machine and December 2015 showed that Splatoon with another title is able to get people to buy an unattractive device despite it's future(I believe they sold over 300K Wii U's). Switch is a lot more desirable product for the Japanese market especially with Splatoon 2 and Minecraft/Zelda/MK8D/Arms as secondary options.
People continue to underestimate Splatoon, despite what I think are signs that the game is trending to become the biggest game in Japan for the foreseeable future.

It also depends though on stock levels and yeah nintendo will push a lot of extra stock for Splatoon 2's release but the system is still being sold by bloody raffles in many shops theres every chance they may be still selling everything they ship for the next couple of months so there probably wont be many (if any) already on the shelves to be bought
 

Hero

Member
Minecraft being early on in the system's life bodes well.

Look at all this mid-tier games being announced.

Where's Oregano? Still banned?
 
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