Support NeoGAF

[ksamedi]

So, it looks like the Japanese smartphone market is starting to stabilize, barring an unforeseen major event or game (a la Lineage 2 Revolution in Korea caused a major market expansion).

Smartphone app revenue, sans in game advertising revenue, is currently 3 times the combined software and hardware revenue for dedicated devices, and that's probably about the ratio we'll be sitting with for a while.

The interesting impact here is that now publishers will have to actually try and take share from other publishers instead of living in the growth segment. Expect to see lots of shake-ups and more risks as publishers try to do this.

I think Nintendo will take a large piece of that pie. They have learned a lot from Mario and Fire Emblem and they have big games IP that they can use for huge successes like Animal Crossing and Mario Kart.

 

[Nirolak]

I think Nintendo will take a large piece of that pie. They have learned a lot from Mario and Fire Emblem and they have big games IP that they can use for huge successes like Animal Crossing and Mario Kart.

They're also a company that might force growth. Pokemon GO largely did not eat away at the biggest games in the market, leading to major expansion in markets that weren't Japan (where the game did less well).

 

[Gleethor]

75k is like 25% off the prediction from our analysts. I can foresee the Switch going a downward spiral in the next few months. Would be even bleaker for the holidays without any proper game announcements..

Yes this scenario is extremely common for sold-out systems in their first year.

 

[Arynio]

blame chris for posting misleading charts imo

How is it misleading when it's perfectly labelled?

Read, people!

 

[Vena]

Today I learned that people do not read the title/legend of a graph.

Who do you feel is actually investing less in mobile at this point? Even Koei Tecmo's newest report was about going in on that.

Oh I don't think any one is investing less, yet. Its only been ~2 years of market cap plateau and there's always hope for being the 'next big thing' or scratching off just a little bit more to add to the market cap. I think we'll start seeing reevaluation coming in in the next few years if the market starts to resemble Tepui in the coming years.

Heck, I'd actually expect people to invest *more* at first as they try to either expand the market or crack it open, before curtailing failed expenditures if the market basically refuses to expand and/or crack.

 

[ksamedi]

They're also a company that might force growth. Pokemon GO largely did not eat away at the biggest games in the market, leading to major expansion in markets that weren't Japan (where the game did less well).

Agreed. I could also see that mobile growth will also have a positive effect on their console business thus growing both markets. I think Sony is carefully analyzing the situation as well. Good mobile games seems like a good way to promote rhe console business.

 

[titiklabingapat]

GAF reacts worse than the stock market investors with thier own predictions, and that's saying something. LOL.

 

[Nirolak]

Oh I don't think any one is investing less, yet. Its only been ~2 years of market cap plateau and there's always hope for being the 'next big thing' or scratching off just a little bit more to add to the market cap. I think we'll start seeing reevaluation coming in in the next few years if the market starts to resemble Tepui in the coming years.

Heck, I'd actually expect people to invest *more* at first as they try to either expand the market or crack it open, before curtailing failed expenditures if the market basically refuses to expand and/or crack.

Where are you expecting them to reinvest if they draw back, or are you expecting major layoffs/"""early retirements""" in response?

 

[And_Gignac]

75k is like 25% off the prediction from our analysts. I can foresee the Switch going a downward spiral in the next few months. Would be even bleaker for the holidays without any proper game announcements..

Clock the username lol.

 

[Oregano]

Where are you expecting them to reinvest if they draw back, or are you expecting major layoffs/"""early retirements""" in response?

Scorpio. Or VR.

Whichever is the funnier response.

 

[Vena]

Where are you expecting them to reinvest if they draw back, or are you expecting major layoffs/"""early retirements""" in response?

I mean, if you expand and fail to succeed, I'd expect contractions.

GAF reacts worse than the stock market investors with thier own predictions, and that's saying something. LOL.

People should just listen to Chris more, and these threads have been going for a loop for the last few weeks, lol. Between the Switch continuing to sell what it ships, and the PS4 dipping well beneath the mythical "baseline", we'll be in for a doozey for a while.

 

[Ryuuga]

Welp my friend just lost a bet. Pizza is on him for the rest of the nba playoffs. He wagered that switch would do 150k last week.

 

[Ōkami]

MK8 deluxe had higher first week sales than all PS4 games but MGSV and FFXV.

The only Wii U game with higher first week sales was the original MK8.

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

For anyone who doubts MK8D selling as an expanded port.
280k Japan
~70k UK
459k+ US
That is already at least 809k first weekend.
Never doubt MK ever again folks it'll always surprise.
Anyway Switch did well(I mean 75k is still great) and Zelda increases which is awesome.
Go Bomberman go!

 

[Nirolak]

I mean, if you expand and fail to succeed, I'd expect contractions.

So that's actually one of the interesting angles about Japan.

The reason window seating and early retirement payoffs exist in Japan is that it's actually very hard (culturally, but I also believe legally) to lay people off, which is why you see staff shifted around so much, and that the vast majority of recruiting actually comes from hiring college students instead of poaching from other studios.

If you hire 1000 new staffers to mobile and decide they're dead weight, you might only be able to get rid of 100 of them through early retirement payouts. Were this to happen, where would you expect those staff to be reassigned? Or would you expect them to be left on mobile?

Obviously in the West you just send everyone out the door as is quite common, but the extra layer here raises interesting questions whenever a Japanese company hires more staff.

 

[Celine]

Here's the first week sales for Mario Kart 8 on Wii U, just to look back.

Jesus christ at those HW sales. The Wii U truly was Nintendo's darkest hour.

WiiU was already dead by the time MK8 came out.

 

[Chris1964]

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is the next port from Wii U that will outsell the original and maybe before the end of the year. It's not a surprise after several 3DS titles before but the big difference this time is that install base is lower and not higher.

 

[Vena]

If you hire 1000 new staffers to mobile and decide they're dead weight, you might only be able to get rid of 100 of them through early retirement payouts. Were this to happen, where would you expect those staff to be reassigned? Or would you expect them to be left on mobile?

If we expect them to be unable to be laid-off per cultural/legal expectations, then, yes, I would expect them to keep plinking away at mobile projects. Some of them may get re-absorbed elsewhere for some unexpected success or some project needing more hands, but if they are going to be window-dressing then they will likely remain on mobile with projects that have about as much budget as it would cost to keep paying the people working on said projects.

Like, say, Konami has a mobile division and, say, they experience some flat-line on projects/mobile initiatives. But more recently, Bomberman's been all "look at me daddy!" and they move a few people from a flat-lined mobile project to a new Bomberman project, increasing the former's budget from 5000Yen to maybe 50000Yen and giving it a few more than the five people that worked on R.

 

[Nirolak]

If we expect them to be unable to be laid-off per cultural/legal expectations, then, yes, I would expect them to keep plinking away at mobile projects. Some of them may get re-absorbed elsewhere for some unexpected success or some project needing more hands, but if they are going to be window-dressing then they will likely remain on mobile with projects that have about as much budget as it would cost to keep paying the people working on said projects.

Like, say, Konami has a mobile division and, say, they experience some flat-line on projects/mobile initiatives. But more recently, Bomberman's been all "look at me daddy!" and they move a few people from a flat-lined mobile project to a new Bomberman project, increasing the former's budget from 5000Yen to maybe 50000Yen and giving it a few more than the five people that worked on R.

Right, that's reasonable. I'd expect resources to shift toward whatever the most successful projects are in the company regardless of platform (i.e. Square Enix moving a zillion staff onto Final Fantasy XIV despite their flagship departments being the HD Games and Mobile divisions).

Like Konami is a pretty good example since they divested from Metal Gear and moved all those resources into mobile and console/PC service games among the staff who stayed, since Metal Gear had the worst risk to margin ratio.

 

[Passose]

Right, that's reasonable. I'd expect resources to shift toward whatever the most successful projects are in the company regardless of platform (i.e. Square Enix moving a zillion staff onto Final Fantasy XIV despite their flagship departments being the HD Games and Mobile divisions).

FFXVI should be a mobile game, it will bring Square shit tons of money lol

 

[Nirolak]

FFXVI should be a mobile game, it will bring Square shit tons of money lol

There's a reason their flagship FF mobile game is called "Final Fantasy: BRAVE EXVIUS".

 

[Vena]

FFXVI should be a mobile game, it will bring Square shit tons of money lol

You joke, but Exvius is more profitable than anything else with FF on it.

Right, that's reasonable. I'd expect resources to shift toward whatever the most successful projects are in the company regardless of platform (i.e. Square Enix moving a zillion staff onto Final Fantasy XIV despite their flagship departments being the HD Games and Mobile divisions).

Like Konami is a pretty good example since they divested from Metal Gear and moved all those resources into mobile and console/PC service games among the staff who stayed, since Metal Gear had the worst risk to margin ratio.

I'd get a good laugh if Nintendo also revived Metal Gear with these partnerships they've been dallying in with Konami on old IP revivals, though I'd sooner expect 2D Castelvania to be the next brand they try to resurrect from the grave (that and I can't actually think of much else or much else that really jives with Nintendo's current strategy in these revivals).

 

[Eliseo]

There's a reason their flagship FF mobile game is called "Final Fantasy: BRAVE EXVIUS".

WOAH!

 

[Herb Alpert]

75k is like 25% off the prediction from our analysts. I can foresee the Switch going a downward spiral in the next few months. Would be even bleaker for the holidays without any proper game announcements..

Nice user name

 

[Mpl90]

You joke, but Exvius is more profitable than anything else with FF on it.



I'd get a good laugh if Nintendo also revived Metal Gear with these partnerships they've been dallying in with Konami on old IP revivals, though I'd sooner expect 2D Castelvania to be the next brand they try to resurrect from the grave (that and I can't actually think of much else or much else that really jives with Nintendo's current strategy in these revivals).

...Goemon?

 

[Dark Cloud]

For anyone who doubts MK8D selling as an expanded port.
280k Japan
~70k UK
459k+ US
That is already at least 809k first weekend.
Never doubt MK ever again folks it'll always surprise.
Anyway Switch did well(I mean 75k is still great) and Zelda increases which is awesome.
Go Bomberman go!

And it probably was close to a million because I think the US number was only for day 1.

 

[Nirolak]

WOAH!

The Brave part is also a reference to the developer's previous game, Brave Frontier.

 

[Celine]

MK8 deluxe had higher first week sales than all PS4 games but MGSV and FFXV.

The only Wii U game with higher first week sales was the original MK8.

When you think that after more than 3 years on the market, PS4 has just one game which sold over 500K it's easy to guess why PS4 didn't perform that well in Japan (in stark contrast with the rest of the world).

 

[Passose]

There's a reason their flagship FF mobile game is called "Final Fantasy: BRAVE EXVIUS".

Didn't know about that at all

 

[Kanann]

...Goemon?

Whoozzyyyy!

And Contra.

No hope for Suikoden, tho.

 

[darkstar0155]

This may have already been addressed but I didn't see it.. whats up with the MC numbers not showing up?

 

[Nirolak]

Didn't know about that at all

It actually does make a lot of money. Square Enix made over $612 million in mobile revenue last fiscal year, and Brave Exvius was one of the biggest components of that.

It hit 20 million downloads not too long ago as well, so pretty good reach.

 

[Vena]

...Goemon?

I can see:
Gradius/new SHMUP in general
Contra
Goemon
Yugioh (though this is still alive and well, I believe)
Castlevania 2D
Suikoden

The last being a continuation of Nintendo's interest in building its own jRPG/RPG catalog.

 

[Eliseo]

The Brave part is also a reference to the developer's previous game, Brave Frontier.

Does SE have a big mobile title coming this year? or just mid tiers.

 

[Chris1964]

This may have already been addressed but I didn't see it.. whats up with the MC numbers not showing up?

They had Switch over 100k and were delayed for recount.

 

[Passose]

You joke, but Exvius is more profitable than anything else with FF on it.



I'd get a good laugh if Nintendo also revived Metal Gear with these partnerships they've been dallying in with Konami on old IP revivals, though I'd sooner expect 2D Castelvania to be the next brand they try to resurrect from the grave (that and I can't actually think of much else or much else that really jives with Nintendo's current strategy in these revivals).

People will set Nintendo headquarter on fire if Konami brings a new Silent Hill game to their console and the game turns out to be great

 

[Thorrgal]

PS4 Pro is consistently selling around 20% or the total PS4's. Do we have Pro % numbers from other regions? Is this 20% a good ballpark to extrapolate to WW sales?

 

[Kouriozan]

I'm playing Brave Exvius daily since WW soft launch and I understand why it's making so much money, hope it'll be supported for a long time.

Does SE have a big mobile title coming this year? or just mid tiers.

There was that Dissidia game released earlier, but it's not making much impact for now.

 

[Nirolak]

Does SE have a big mobile title coming this year? or just mid tiers.

Unless my assessment of the mobile market is quite off, I would not expect any of their currently announced titles to be bigger than moderate successes.

Square Enix was happy with Star Ocean and Dissidia's mobile games, but they're more like titles that peak out in the top 20 or top 30 instead of the top 10.

Their upcoming announced titles are:
- Flame X Blaze: This is a mobile MOBA.
- SINoALICE: This is a relatively traditional looking mobile JRPG, but with high end production values and helmed/written by Yoko Taro.
- A new Million Arthur game by Netease, presumably targeting the Chinese market?
- ...I think that's it at the moment.

Matsuda (their CEO) promised this would be a (fiscal) year of notable experimentation and trying to find new angles from which to approach the market, as they already have several flagships in the traditional mold, and it's getting harder to break into that mold with new titles.

Mind, those existing major titles are still growing well, but as Vena mentioned, there's some amount to which the best and strongest ones eat up the air from very similar games, as is usually the case as markets mature.

I'm playing Brave Exvius daily since WW soft launch and I understand why it's making so much money, hope it'll be supported for a long time.

It's still growing to my understanding, and is actually successful overseas as well, so you can probably expect that one to stick around for the long haul.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Hey Nirolak, since you're always providing interesting thoughts on roadmaps for publishers, what are your thoughts on Koei Tecmo's seemingly very high dedication in Switch support?

 

[Skittzo0413]

People will set Nintendo headquarter on fire if Konami brings a new Silent Hill game to their console and the game turns out to be great

That would wind up being an entertaining thread. I think an insider told us there will likely be an E3 announcement that will spawn a thread for the archives. Wonder if it's anything Konami related...

 

[Chris1964]

Since Nintendo won't open Splatoon 2 pre-orders inside Golden Week that gives 2 months or less for them. It looks Nintendo isn't in position to satisfy initial demand with current install base and tries to push it as back as is possible at that section.

 

[MTC100]

I bet MK 8DX will have legs. More so than even Zelda.

 

[Hero of Legend]

That would wind up being an entertaining thread. I think an insider told us there will likely be an E3 announcement that will spawn a thread for the archives. Wonder if it's anything Konami related...

Honestly? I think a Switch-exclusive Suikoden 6 would bring more salt than FF7R just being on Switch would.

Wonder if any ND Cube staffers worked on 4 and 5 during the Hudson days. Also, Hexadrive did work on FF Type-0 and 3rd Birthday which are both RPGs (IIRC for the latter) and the creator's writing for Alliance Alive on 3DS by FuRyu right?

 

[Mory Dunz]

I bet MK 8DX will have legs. More so than even Zelda.

...

 

[frankie_baby]

That would wind up being an entertaining thread. I think an insider told us there will likely be an E3 announcement that will spawn a thread for the archives. Wonder if it's anything Konami related...

The only thing konami related that would fit that billing would be metal gear

 

[Hero of Legend]

I bet MK 8DX will have legs. More so than even Zelda.

Goes without saying really. If anything Zelda selling like it has I think is the bigger surprise when not even Twilight Princess Wii did this well in Japan, or even worldwide, right?

The only thing konami related that would fit that billing would be metal gear

Nah, because without Kojima, I doubt many would care either way. I think Rising is the only ever Kojima-less MG that people adored. Then again, other than the upcoming Survive, what others WERE there?

 

[Jon Carter]

I bet MK 8DX will have legs. More so than even Zelda.

That's a bold prediction.

 

[Oregano]

If Konami want to follow up Bomberman with another IP it will be Contra IMO. It's perfectly suited to 2 player single Joycon gameplay.

 

[frankie_baby]

Goes without saying really. If anything Zelda selling like it has I think is the bigger surprise when not even Twilight Princess Wii did this well in Japan, or even worldwide, right?



Nah, because without Kojima, I doubt many would care either way. I think Rising is the only ever Kojima-less MG that people adored. Then again, other than the upcoming Survive, what others WERE there?

A mainline metal gear without kojima would be archive worthy on it is own let alone being for switch

Still reckon its ff7r though