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frankie_baby
Member
It was likely very cheap to make, i expect more after they do a switch FE
Bruno MB
Member
Prediction League April 2017 Results
Congratulations to:
- noobie, for winning by units!
- noobie, for winning by mean error %!
Congratulations to:
- noobie, for winning by units!
- noobie, for winning by mean error %!
Code:
BY UNITS BY MEAN ERROR %
1 noobie 86.873 1 noobie 11,41%
2 Eolz 95.565 2 astrogamer 12,83%
3 Hellraider 108.565 3 LordKano 13,75%
4 LordKano 110.493 4 Tamanator 15,30%
5 astrogamer 113.931 5 Eolz 15,44%
6 zeromcd73 133.125 6 Hellraider 17,14%
7 Tamanator 134.035 7 DrWong 17,70%
8 DrWong 137.491 8 zeromcd73 18,03%
9 Chris1964 137.640 9 Chris1964 18,93%
10 Bruno MB 143.565 10 Yeshua 21,48%
11 Yeshua 162.511 11 Bruno MB 21,91%
12 casiopao 173.931 12 casiopao 22,09%
13 Yagami_Sama 337.144 13 Yagami_Sama 39,01%
GAF_AVERAGE 70.940 GAF_AVERAGE 9,79%
Code:
Famitsu Chris1964 zeromcd73 Yagami_Sam casiopao DrWong Yeshua LordKano Hellraiderastrogamer Eolz noobie Tamanator Bruno MB
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware 234.817 234.567 215.000 385.124 280.000 289.000 250.000 300.000 225.000 240.000 222.000 260.000 295.000 230.000
[PS4 + PSV] Musou Stars 75.781 87.654 85.000 39.198 90.000 85.000 60.000 75.000 80.000 85.000 101.000 87.000 64.000 100.000
[3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia 158.509 210.987 95.000 77.548 240.000 147.000 150.000 160.000 200.000 190.000 185.000 115.000 165.000 225.000
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X 92.809 65.432 72.000 83.123 80.000 60.000 50.000 60.000 50.000 85.000 78.000 95.000 77.000 70.000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 280.229 234.567 300.000 339.836 260.000 310.000 200.000 270.000 270.000 220.000 264.000 285.000 320.000 255.000
TOTAL ABS. DIFF. 137.640 133.125 337.144 173.931 137.491 162.511 110.493 108.565 113.931 95.565 86.873 134.035 143.565
MEAN ERROR % 18,93% 18,03% 39,01% 22,09% 17,70% 21,48% 13,75% 17,14% 12,83% 15,44% 11,41% 15,30% 21,91%
Code:
STATISTICS FAMITSU GAF_AVG UNDER OVER MIN MAX CLOSEST BY
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware 234.817 263.515 38% 62% 215.000 385.124 234.567 Chris1964
[PS4 + PSV] Musou Stars 75.781 79.912 31% 69% 39.198 101.000 75.000 LordKano
[3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia 158.509 166.195 38% 62% 77.548 240.000 160.000 LordKano
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X 92.809 71.197 92% 8% 50.000 95.000 95.000 noobie
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 280.229 271.416 62% 38% 200.000 339.836 285.000 noobieSo, what sales were you expecting if there were no stock issues. MK8D has done extremely well imo.
perfectchaos007
Member
Wow I thought for sure Switch would surpass the 3DS's YTD by now. Hurry up Nintendo and ship more Switches!
It didn't really impacted MK8D sales since it's not out of stock too. If anything, Switch bump wasn't as high because of stock issues.
I have nothing to contribute, I just wanted to say that even with the dark theme I can use this graph to light my room in the dark.
thestopsign
Member
Wow Chris was only off by ~300 units for the Switch in April. I thought I made predictions for April but I guess not, I definitely did May.
OverturePT
Member
MK8D might not be out of stock, but if more Switch's were available it would mean more people to possibly buy MK8D, so it really does impact in a way.
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe would need to drop less than 50% during the current week in order to beat Mario Kart 8 cumulative second week sales (MK8D would need to sell about 126k at least). Do you guys think is reasonable, what with GW, a day less sales last week, and the general condition of the Switch and MK8D?
Uh huh.
Why exactly? The system still sells out within about an hour each week, and this week was no different. GAF's analysts overestimated Nintendo's shipments, not Switch' ability to sell.
Dark Cloud
Member
When keeping it unreal goes wrong.
Interfectum
Member
Lol
frankie_baby
Member
Its hard to say with the switch base still being comparatively low I'd have to imagine with its high attach rate most current switch owners that want it will have already got it but maybe they might pump out another big week of stock for golden week and that will keep it decent
DecoReturns
Member
Mario Kart is probably over 1 million now worldwide.
that's pretty.................. unrealistic
frankie_baby
Member
Minecraft in 2 weeks
Arms a month after that
Splatoon 2 another month later
What the hell are you smoking?
JonnyDBrit
Member
While some comparisons will have to wait till MCS numbers are released, looks like there might be some synergy for Mario Kart with BOTW after all, or otherwise system association. Should be good for the latter's legs as it chases the 600k mark, given 500k is a lock over the next week or so.
Nier might have a shot of crossing 300k on Famitsu's tracker by the end of the month too.
Nier might have a shot of crossing 300k on Famitsu's tracker by the end of the month too.
Yeah, that's my dilemma as well. On the one hand I don't expect the current userbase to provide another 126k or even close to that, but if they manage to ship a similar amount this week, then that would give a very decent boost and might make that numbers possible.
740k when combining JP first week + US first day. I think these two regions' first weekend combined gets you close to 1 million already. And then you still need to add the whole of Europe and the other territories. 1 million is a no-brainer, basically.
Interfectum
Member
He's trolling.
already passed one million in April alone
You forgot to add /s in the end
perfectchaos007
Member
You work at Japanese Wedbush Morgan?
Sorry I was just kidding (not really trolling). I have two Switches and couldn't be more happy. I got almost all the games digitally too. Just feel funny reading the posts on GAF (such as the one on the lack of game announcements thread) .. the 'experts' and analysts on doomsday predictions and how Nintendo should do this or that. It's like we have a bunch of game developers or CEOs here who are out to enlighten us or prove us wrong for liking a console.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Stores are probably giving it away as a freebie.
That maybe so, but there's still a lot of earlier Switch owners who have yet to buy MK8D, so it's not that much of a big deal for the game. MK8D is an evergreen title anyway so legs are more important than its first week sales.
LOL, in fact, one store near Shinjuku did something like that, down 1,000yen.
TheLegendaryN
Member
Looks like being inspired (lol) by Danganronpa didn't work out too well for Nippon Ichi...
Jon Carter
Member
A friend of my wife's, on Facebook, said he had told his young daughter he would get her a Switch and MK8DX for Golden Week, but he couldn't find one, so she was crying hard. With this amount of units, I can see why he couldn't find a Switch.
Putting a smile on people's faces? More like making kids cry since 1889.
Putting a smile on people's faces? More like making kids cry since 1889.
Ayyyyy
lol
Dude, thats two and a half games, nothing to brag about lol
He's not "bragging" about anything, he's just posting that there's potentially enough reason for the switch sales not to go on a downward spiral in the short term.
Herb Alpert
Banned
That's some nice troll here
Production of the Switch is peculiarly on a razor in terms of volume, I'd be curious to find out what the exact bottleneck on the production lines is because even the "improved" production still feels (and is, currently) slow. Japan would be the first region to see the increased production but its either not hit yet to ramping it takes a surprisingly long time.
That said, the system continues to sell what it ships and software continues to move surprisingly well globally (some indies must be *extremely* happy).
Now he can make it up to her with Switch, MK8D, and LEGS the fantastic sequel to ARMS but before the third installment NECKS.
That said, the system continues to sell what it ships and software continues to move surprisingly well globally (some indies must be *extremely* happy).
Now he can make it up to her with Switch, MK8D, and LEGS the fantastic sequel to ARMS but before the third installment NECKS.
Wut, that is the biggest third party game not named GTA, a brand new Nintendo IP from the Mario Kart A team, and the newest hottest instalment of the best selling Nintendo IP from the last generation. And this is on the dreaded half-year drought.
Splatoon 2 and Minecraft are just ports bruh, so it's only 2, 2.5 is too much
Ultra Street Fighter II on May 26th.
Seiken Densetsu Collection on June 1st.
That's the only two retail releases before June 16th and ARMS. May/June are slow months, though not just for the Switch.
DecoReturns
Member
Don't forget SFII.
That will round up the 2.5 to 3
Although I think Splatoon is all they need
That will round up the 2.5 to 3
Although I think Splatoon is all they need
Dark Cloud
Member
Which one is the half?
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
It kind of depends. In this case, they reused the engine from the previous game right? If it ends up selling anywhere near the DS remakes (250K), or just sells well in the West, I think it may be given another shot because it's a cheaper project.
Genealogy is a more popular game than the black sheep that's Gaiden, so it definitely has more potential. I admit if a Genealogy remake were to bomb, we'd probably be done with Echoes.
So, it looks like the Japanese smartphone market is starting to stabilize, barring an unforeseen major event or game (a la Lineage 2 Revolution in Korea caused a major market expansion).
Smartphone app revenue, sans in game advertising revenue, is currently 3 times the combined software and hardware revenue for dedicated devices, and that's probably about the ratio we'll be sitting with for a while.
The interesting impact here is that now publishers will have to actually try and take share from other publishers instead of living in the growth segment. Expect to see lots of shake-ups and more risks as publishers try to do this.
Smartphone app revenue, sans in game advertising revenue, is currently 3 times the combined software and hardware revenue for dedicated devices, and that's probably about the ratio we'll be sitting with for a while.
The interesting impact here is that now publishers will have to actually try and take share from other publishers instead of living in the growth segment. Expect to see lots of shake-ups and more risks as publishers try to do this.
On topic with Pokemon Stars, I'd expect it to be 3DS/Switch almost assuredly. It may have started as one or the other but market conditions and movement (of both the 3DS and the Switch, the former somehow defying all odds and just continue to kick the can along and the latter exploding to market) would have almost assuredly brought in the other hardware for very serious consideration for having a port either up or down.
We can also probably start to expect to see some, of varying degrees and intensities, collapses of mobile efforts with a now-tapped market with limited growth potential (baring, again, a major shift ala L2). Either a knock from the high horse, or an ill-planned gambit into major growth with 'free room' to grow into or supplement a fall from dominance by a better/more in resonance product for the time. It also doesn't help that the mobile market feels incredibly top-heavy with products that usually have high retention and "player time monopolization" for lack of a better way of putting it in the zero-sum game that is the market cap.
In some ways, we've actually already been seeing that, though, and explains why (aside from bad products) some companies have been struggling to get mobile successes as of more recent times. Seems we've been more or less flat since 2015, and there's been a lot of market share fighting/trying to break in since then that has been met with less than stellar results.
We can also probably start to expect to see some, of varying degrees and intensities, collapses of mobile efforts with a now-tapped market with limited growth potential (baring, again, a major shift ala L2). Either a knock from the high horse, or an ill-planned gambit into major growth with 'free room' to grow into or supplement a fall from dominance by a better/more in resonance product for the time. It also doesn't help that the mobile market feels incredibly top-heavy with products that usually have high retention and "player time monopolization" for lack of a better way of putting it in the zero-sum game that is the market cap.
In some ways, we've actually already been seeing that, though, and explains why (aside from bad products) some companies have been struggling to get mobile successes as of more recent times. Seems we've been more or less flat since 2015, and there's been a lot of market share fighting/trying to break in since then that has been met with less than stellar results.
Who do you feel is actually investing less in mobile at this point? Even Koei Tecmo's newest report was about going in on that.