darkstar0155
Member
Yeah, sorta a running conversation piece. The real question is are we including the Wii U version or just the switch version? Cause that's a big chunk.
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Yeah, sorta a running conversation piece. The real question is are we including the Wii U version or just the switch version? Cause that's a big chunk.
It is showing leggy behaviour. 500k is not out of reach. I think the stock situation is holding it back really bad and we will see the true potential once the stock issue is cleared up.
Definitely. Nier
2B
Huge tentpole releases usually see upticks before launch, pretty par for the course.
Curious thing is that weekly 1k increase in PS4Pro for the last four weeks or so. Its been steadily increasing.
First week => Second week Comparison
02./00. [3DS] The Legend of Legacy <RPG> (FuRyu) {2015.01.22} (¥6.458) - 53.974 / NEW
13./02. [3DS] The Legend of Legacy <RPG> (FuRyu) {2015.01.22} (¥6.458) - 6.514 / 60.488 (-88%)
03./00. [3DS] The Alliance Alive <RPG> (FuRyu) {2017.06.22} (¥6.280) - 26.421 / NEW
06./03. [3DS] The Alliance Alive <RPG> (FuRyu) {2017.06.22} (¥6.280) - 10.085 / 36.506 (-62%)
Word of mouth.
02./00. [3DS] The Legend of Legacy <RPG> (FuRyu) {2015.01.22} (¥6.458) - 53.974 / NEW
13./02. [3DS] The Legend of Legacy <RPG> (FuRyu) {2015.01.22} (¥6.458) - 6.514 / 60.488 (-88%)
03./00. [3DS] The Alliance Alive <RPG> (FuRyu) {2017.06.22} (¥6.280) - 26.421 / NEW
06./03. [3DS] The Alliance Alive <RPG> (FuRyu) {2017.06.22} (¥6.280) - 10.085 / 36.506 (-62%)
Word of mouth.
Another meh week. It's no wonder software is down YoY in Japan.
Yeah, I'm guessing ARMS isnt going to be a notable seller for Nintendo. I wonder how soon until it gets the Miyamoto stiff arm like F-Zero =/
Yeah, I'm guessing ARMS isnt going to be a notable seller for Nintendo. I wonder how soon until it gets the Miyamoto stiff arm like F-Zero =/
I think Splatoon 2 success has given ARMS some pretty insane expectations. If a new IP launches to 1.5-2M world wide I think that would be a good start for Nintendo.
Radiant Historia was released at the end of DS's lifetime and it got a port to 3DS....at the end of its lifetime. That kind of happens.
I agree. 2 million is not out of reach at all and will set the stage for a big production sequal which can do much better even.
thestopsign
Member
It doesn't make it this year on just the Switch. It would have to sell somewhere near 20k a week the rest of the year.
Also to that person saying 50k Switch for Splatoon 2's launch... don't know what to say. That would be a horrific failure on Nintendo's part. They could sell 300k Switch in a week if they had the stock for it that week.
You can't have hardware selling at 20k and expect software to do better. Switch gets a pass for these numbers only because of stock problems that also hold software back to a degree. If these were sales under normal circumstances we would talk for another irrelevant system.
darkstar0155
Member
Yeah, ive always been in the camp of 1 mil for NSW+WiiU by its 1 year holiday. Although I think it can easily reach that by January 1st
Graphics Horse
Member
I think some people want to think they're only going to start making those purple and green controllers a week before Splatoon comes out. Maybe they are but I doubt it
Minsc
Gold Member
I wouldn't be surprised if they could sell over a million Switches in that week if they had the stock (people have guessed the demand for the Switch hardware in Japan to be around 2-3+ million, granted it can't be sold all at once). They'll actually stock/sell around 1/10th that I think, then drop back to measly stock levels again for a while.
OrbitalBeard
Member
2018. There will be spikes here and there and the baseline will likely improve slightly in the fall, but it's not going to get significantly better on a regular basis until next year.
AquaWateria
Member
I mean Metroid is getting 2 games and its a series that doesn't sell well in Japan.
Not many new IPs sell more than 100k. That's a achievement in it self especially in a genre that doesn't do well in Japan. Its just that Splatton 2 has twisted some peoples expectation considering Splatoon is a phenomenon in Japan something that rarely happens Lol.
whyamihere
Banned
A new original fighting IP selling 1.5-2million would be great.
I expect ARMS to sell 4 million+ in the long run. Unless it's suddenly not supported anymore.
Eolz
Member
That would be insane. Even with free support/etc, it's not another Splatoon. Doing 2M would already be fantastic.
It will do 2M before its first anniversary I'd say. The game is very popular.
thestopsign
Member
I agree that it can't be treated as a Zelda with a typical Zelda sales pattern, that has been evident for a while now. It will still be tough for it too hit the arbitrary 1 million mark we've been talking about this year, it'll be close which makes it interesting to think about.
That would be a sight to see. Definitely an interesting thought experiment. If Nintendo theoretically had limitless supply the week Splatoon 2 came out, how many Switch's would they sell?
If it is to reach 4+ million I would think it needs to sell a bit more than 2 million in 12 months. Splatoon sold more than 4.2 million in its first FY (about 10 months).
boiled goose
good with gravy
Botw isn't selling like the average 3d Zelda game because it isn't.
This is a game with actual innovation and impact. It's a game worth talking. It's a game with YouTube videos and articles discussing it, etc. WW, TP, and SS were not like this at all.
Botw is a very modern game. A game that once again goes back to treating it's audience with respect. So happy it's being so successful because it's totally the right gaming design philosophy.
This is a game with actual innovation and impact. It's a game worth talking. It's a game with YouTube videos and articles discussing it, etc. WW, TP, and SS were not like this at all.
Botw is a very modern game. A game that once again goes back to treating it's audience with respect. So happy it's being so successful because it's totally the right gaming design philosophy.
Basically identically, the PS3 will come close to overtaking it/over take it (as it now enters its healthier phase in its lifetime) but then the PS4 will re-overtake it with DQXI (assuming a strong launch, and coinciding with the White PS4) for some unknown amount of time thereafter.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Yeah Breath do the Wild will hit a million on Switch cause it'll be one of the must haves of the entire generation.
No, Nintendo plans to sell 10 million systems between April 1st, 2017 and March 31st, 2018. (In addition to the 2.7 million already sold in March 2017) So a total of 12.7 million by end of March of next year.
Quite curious about DQXI sales split.
I don't think PS4 itself could push it 2.5-4 million, so in that respect expanding to 3DS was a good decision (and I'd imagine it'll also be a profitable decision).
Still, do we (in the end) get a ~1 million PS4 version and ~2-3 million 3DS version? Or like a ~1.5 million PS4 version and ~1.5-2.5 million 3DS version?
I sort of wonder how much the existence of a PS4 version and its sales cut into 3DS sales, which, absent PS4 version, could probably, I imagine, reach the full 2.5-4 million DQ in Japan has done in the past.
How independent will the sales on the two platforms be? The assumption of their dependence rests on a picture of a static DQ audience that's always had the platform DQ is on. Will we instead see it reach nearer potential on both platforms? That is, something like ~1-1.5 million on PS4 and ~2.5-3.5 million on 3DS?
I think the PS4 version only outsells 3DS version if we go with the shared audience understanding and 2.5-3 million sales with PS4 managing to push 1.5 million and 3DS slightly less or if DQXI PS4 completely blows our understanding of its software sales potential out of the water and hits 2 million or so (and again we go with a shared audience understanding).
I don't think PS4 itself could push it 2.5-4 million, so in that respect expanding to 3DS was a good decision (and I'd imagine it'll also be a profitable decision).
Still, do we (in the end) get a ~1 million PS4 version and ~2-3 million 3DS version? Or like a ~1.5 million PS4 version and ~1.5-2.5 million 3DS version?
I sort of wonder how much the existence of a PS4 version and its sales cut into 3DS sales, which, absent PS4 version, could probably, I imagine, reach the full 2.5-4 million DQ in Japan has done in the past.
How independent will the sales on the two platforms be? The assumption of their dependence rests on a picture of a static DQ audience that's always had the platform DQ is on. Will we instead see it reach nearer potential on both platforms? That is, something like ~1-1.5 million on PS4 and ~2.5-3.5 million on 3DS?
I think the PS4 version only outsells 3DS version if we go with the shared audience understanding and 2.5-3 million sales with PS4 managing to push 1.5 million and 3DS slightly less or if DQXI PS4 completely blows our understanding of its software sales potential out of the water and hits 2 million or so (and again we go with a shared audience understanding).
i think ARMS will have outsold every F-Zero game except the original in a few months.
it would take a catastrophic crash in sales to get to the point F-Zero got. also, the series would need to have basically no one pushing for more to be made (for example: the only reason Star Fox is still alive is because Miyamoto wants to keep making those games. that series would have been as dead as F-Zero if no one within Nintendo cared about it. i believe the ARMS dev team likes the game enough to keep trying for a sequel at least)
Famitsu Sales: Week 27, 2017 (Jun 26 - Jul 02)
01./00. [3DS] Radiant Historia: Perfect Chronology # <RPG> (Atlus) {2017.06.29} (¥6.480) - 21.429 / NEW <40-60%>
02./01. [NSW] Arms <FTG> (Nintendo) {2017.06.16} (¥5.980) - 16.618 / 171.463 <80-100%> (-49%)
03./04. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 11.623 / 513.237 <80-100%> (+4%)
04./00. [PS4] Portal Knights <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft) {2017.06.29} (¥3.000) - 10.617 / NEW <60-80%>
05./00. [PSV] Osomatsu-San: The Game - Hang-Up Finding Employment Advice - Dead or Work # <ADV> (Idea Factory) {2017.06.29} (¥6.300) - 10.028 / NEW <40-60%>
06./02. [3DS] The Alliance Alive <RPG> (FuRyu) {2017.06.22} (¥6.280) - 9.260 / 38.799 <80-100%> (-69%)
07./00. [NSW] LEGO City Undercover <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2017.06.29} (¥5.700) - 6.118 / NEW <20-40%>
08./10. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 5.871 / 466.351 <80-100%> (+5%)
09./05. [PS4] Farpoint |PlayStation VR| # <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.06.22} (¥5.900) - 4.962 / 14.458 <60-80%> (-48%)
10./06. [3DS] Monster Hunter Double Cross <ACT> (Capcom) {2017.03.18} (¥5.800) - 4.896 / 1.644.901 <80-100%> (-24%)
11./00. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Game of the Year Edition <Call of Duty: Black Ops III \ Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Awakening \ Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Eclipse \ Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Descent \ Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Salvation> <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.06.29} (¥5.900) - 3.980 / NEW <0-20%>
12./12. [PS4] NieR: Automata <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.02.23} (¥7.800) - 3.895 / 315.801 <80-100%> (-4%)
13./00. [PSV] Karumaruka Circle # <ADV> (Entergram) {2017.06.29} (¥4.980) - 3.852 / NEW <60-80%>
14./15. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.12.03} (¥2.400) - 2.987 / 223.768 <80-100%> (+7%)
15./14. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥4.990) - 2.924 / 269.261 <80-100%> (+1%)
16./16. [3DS] Pokemon Sun / Moon # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} (¥4.980) - 2.525 / 3.776.609 <80-100%> (-9%)
17./11. [PS4] Tekken 7 <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.06.01} (¥8.200) - 2.519 / 81.003 <80-100%> (-39%)
18./13. [PS4] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2017.05.25} (¥6.800) - 2.410 / 53.924 <80-100%> (-28%)
19./00. [PS4] LEGO City Undercover <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2017.06.29} (¥5.700) - 2.346 / NEW <20-40%>
20./17. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X <TBL> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.04.27} (¥5.700) - 2.246 / 165.295 <80-100%> (-16%)
21./19. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition # <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.03.19} (¥2.400) - 2.123 / 988.022 <80-100%> (-1%)
22./18. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo <ETC> (Nintendo) {2016.11.23} (¥2.700) - 1.936 / 189.193 <80-100%> (-10%)
23./24. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.571) - 1.745 / 2.724.906 <80-100%> (+12%)
24./07. [PS4] Final Fantasy XIV: The Complete Edition {Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn \ Final Fantasy XIV: Heavensward \ Final Fantasy XIV: Stormblood} <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.06.20} (¥5.800) - 1.728 / 7.939 <60-80%> (-72%)
25./00. [PS4] Danganronpa Another Episode: Ultra Despair Girls <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft) {2017.06.29} (¥3.800) - 1.694 / NEW <20-40%>
26./00. [PSV] Tsumigui: Sen no Noroi, Sen no Inori for V <ADV> (Dramatic Create) {2017.06.29} (¥6.900) - 1.674 / NEW <60-80%>
27./27. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2016.06.23} (¥3.600) - 1.630 / 329.020 <80-100%> (+8%)
28./08. [PS4] God Wars: Future Past <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2017.06.22} (¥6.800) - 1.622 / 7.530 <60-80%> (-73%)
29./09. [PSV] God Wars: Future Past <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2017.06.22} (¥6.800) - 1.564 / 7.254 <60-80%> (-73%)
30./25. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki <RPG> (Level 5) {2016.12.15} (¥4.800) - 1.518 / 726.482 <80-100%> (-1%)
Top 30
PS4 - 12
3DS - 8
PSV - 5
NSW - 4
WIU - 1
HARDWARE
01./00. [3DS] Radiant Historia: Perfect Chronology # <RPG> (Atlus) {2017.06.29} (¥6.480) - 21.429 / NEW <40-60%>
02./01. [NSW] Arms <FTG> (Nintendo) {2017.06.16} (¥5.980) - 16.618 / 171.463 <80-100%> (-49%)
03./04. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 11.623 / 513.237 <80-100%> (+4%)
04./00. [PS4] Portal Knights <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft) {2017.06.29} (¥3.000) - 10.617 / NEW <60-80%>
05./00. [PSV] Osomatsu-San: The Game - Hang-Up Finding Employment Advice - Dead or Work # <ADV> (Idea Factory) {2017.06.29} (¥6.300) - 10.028 / NEW <40-60%>
06./02. [3DS] The Alliance Alive <RPG> (FuRyu) {2017.06.22} (¥6.280) - 9.260 / 38.799 <80-100%> (-69%)
07./00. [NSW] LEGO City Undercover <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2017.06.29} (¥5.700) - 6.118 / NEW <20-40%>
08./10. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 5.871 / 466.351 <80-100%> (+5%)
09./05. [PS4] Farpoint |PlayStation VR| # <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.06.22} (¥5.900) - 4.962 / 14.458 <60-80%> (-48%)
10./06. [3DS] Monster Hunter Double Cross <ACT> (Capcom) {2017.03.18} (¥5.800) - 4.896 / 1.644.901 <80-100%> (-24%)
11./00. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Game of the Year Edition <Call of Duty: Black Ops III \ Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Awakening \ Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Eclipse \ Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Descent \ Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Salvation> <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.06.29} (¥5.900) - 3.980 / NEW <0-20%>
12./12. [PS4] NieR: Automata <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.02.23} (¥7.800) - 3.895 / 315.801 <80-100%> (-4%)
13./00. [PSV] Karumaruka Circle # <ADV> (Entergram) {2017.06.29} (¥4.980) - 3.852 / NEW <60-80%>
14./15. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.12.03} (¥2.400) - 2.987 / 223.768 <80-100%> (+7%)
15./14. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥4.990) - 2.924 / 269.261 <80-100%> (+1%)
16./16. [3DS] Pokemon Sun / Moon # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} (¥4.980) - 2.525 / 3.776.609 <80-100%> (-9%)
17./11. [PS4] Tekken 7 <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.06.01} (¥8.200) - 2.519 / 81.003 <80-100%> (-39%)
18./13. [PS4] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2017.05.25} (¥6.800) - 2.410 / 53.924 <80-100%> (-28%)
19./00. [PS4] LEGO City Undercover <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2017.06.29} (¥5.700) - 2.346 / NEW <20-40%>
20./17. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X <TBL> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.04.27} (¥5.700) - 2.246 / 165.295 <80-100%> (-16%)
21./19. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition # <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.03.19} (¥2.400) - 2.123 / 988.022 <80-100%> (-1%)
22./18. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo <ETC> (Nintendo) {2016.11.23} (¥2.700) - 1.936 / 189.193 <80-100%> (-10%)
23./24. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.571) - 1.745 / 2.724.906 <80-100%> (+12%)
24./07. [PS4] Final Fantasy XIV: The Complete Edition {Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn \ Final Fantasy XIV: Heavensward \ Final Fantasy XIV: Stormblood} <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.06.20} (¥5.800) - 1.728 / 7.939 <60-80%> (-72%)
25./00. [PS4] Danganronpa Another Episode: Ultra Despair Girls <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft) {2017.06.29} (¥3.800) - 1.694 / NEW <20-40%>
26./00. [PSV] Tsumigui: Sen no Noroi, Sen no Inori for V <ADV> (Dramatic Create) {2017.06.29} (¥6.900) - 1.674 / NEW <60-80%>
27./27. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2016.06.23} (¥3.600) - 1.630 / 329.020 <80-100%> (+8%)
28./08. [PS4] God Wars: Future Past <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2017.06.22} (¥6.800) - 1.622 / 7.530 <60-80%> (-73%)
29./09. [PSV] God Wars: Future Past <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2017.06.22} (¥6.800) - 1.564 / 7.254 <60-80%> (-73%)
30./25. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki <RPG> (Level 5) {2016.12.15} (¥4.800) - 1.518 / 726.482 <80-100%> (-1%)
Top 30
PS4 - 12
3DS - 8
PSV - 5
NSW - 4
WIU - 1
HARDWARE
Code:
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
|System | This Week | Last Week | Last Year | YTD | Last YTD | LTD |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| PS4 # | 28.642 | 26.140 | 24.757 | 906.272 | 741.606 | 4.827.888 |
| NSW | 24.736 | 26.964 | | 1.041.209 | | 1.041.209 |
| 3DS # | 12.036 | 12.651 | 18.853 | 884.656 | 686.760 | 22.796.069 |
| PSV # | 4.914 | 4.535 | 11.258 | 265.210 | 544.266 | 5.512.629 |
| WIU | 135 | 108 | 5.363 | 19.112 | 223.578 | 3.298.850 |
| PS3 | 121 | 204 | 975 | 14.985 | 33.925 | 10.272.704 |
| XB1 # | 82 | 181 | 63 | 5.175 | 3.235 | 78.123 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| ALL | 70.666 | 70.783 | 61.269 | 3.136.619 | 2.233.370 | 47.827.472 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| XB1 S | 82 | 181 | | 393 | | 6.121 |
|PS4 Pro| 7.058 | 6.680 | | 161.879 | | 278.929 |
| PS4 | 21.584 | 19.460 | 24.757 | 744.393 | 741.606 | 4.548.959 |
| PSV | 4.914 | 4.535 | 11.258 | 265.210 | 544.266 | 5.512.629 |
| 2DS | 2.072 | 2.529 | | 218.067 | | 515.214 |
| n-3DS | 9.964 | 10.122 | 18.220 | 666.589 | 643.252 | 5.360.578 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+I think ARMS will be overshadowed by Splatoon 2 and sales will totally drop off. I think people are buying it right now as a companion game for Zelda, but that is a temporary perk of being the only name in town besides Mario Kart.
Free DLC will help a little bit, but I think sales will taper off to about 2,000 - 1,000 / week pretty soon.
Free DLC will help a little bit, but I think sales will taper off to about 2,000 - 1,000 / week pretty soon.
I think ARMS will get a boost because of Splatoon2 + bigger hardware shiptments
At this point I wonder if this is just a meme or if you guys are serious.
It's selling out its shipment every week. Look at the sellthrough for the week.
Define "pretty soon." Eventually it will, but that will be many months imo, possibly more than a year.
Actually, it was 60%-80% sell-through until this week, so it's sold a little over 80% of its initial shipment.
Napalm_Frank
Member
Very interested to see how Japan receives N.Sane trilogy. Hoping for 100k+.
I believe they are talking about sales of ARMS not the Switch. I'd say that's a reasonable prediction
AquaWateria
Member
I actually think it may help it because they are both multiplayer games focusing on different genres. Plus Splatoon will help bring in a bunch of people that may want to play other games.
I mean I could be wrong but who knows.
Napalm_Frank
Member
thestopsign
Member
Famitsu and Media Create week after week have weird discrepancies between both Switch hardware and software.
Shipments until the end of March were 390+120 = 510k.
It must be well over 700k by now and there are 2 DLC packs coming. Since it's likely it shipped more than a milion this quarter we'll get another update at the end of the month.
AquaWateria
Member
Yeah its a huge gap.
I expected it to drop faster considering the Switch hardware shortages. Now I wouldn't be surprised if Splatoon 2 coupled with more hardware would give it more than just a modest boost to already good numbers.
Software is explainable, Famitsu tracks download cards.
thestopsign
Member
Does it explain why they track less sales for certain games like Zelda then? The difference is pretty staggering at this point. It can go both ways.
And Chris, I am sure it will ship more than a million, it's down to whether it gets to a million in the trackers.