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Media Create Sales: Week 4, 2012 (Jan 23 - Jan 29)

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
New releases {2012.12.09}

[PSV] Gravity Rush <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥5.980)
[PSV] Sumioni: Demon Arts <RPG> (Acquire) (¥5.229)

[PSP] Suikoden: Tsumugareshi Hyakunen no Toki <RPG> (Konami) (¥5.980)
[PSP] Vitamin X: Detective B6 # <ADV> (D3 Publisher) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Vitamin X: Detective B6 [Limited Edition] <ADV> (D3 Publisher) (¥8.190)
[PSP] Tsugi no Giseisha o Oshirase Shimasu: Houkaisuru Sekai ni Shinigami to # <ADV> (Asgard) (¥3.969)
[PSP] Tsugi no Giseisha o Oshirase Shimasu: Houkaisuru Sekai ni Shinigami to [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Asgard) (¥6.090)

[PS3] The Cursed Crusade <ADV> (Ubisoft) (¥7.329)
[PS3] Super Street Fighter IV: Arcade Edition (PlayStation 3 the Best) <FTG> (Capcom) (¥2.990)

[360] Super Street Fighter IV: Arcade Edition (Platinum Collection) <FTG> (Capcom) (¥2.990)
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Noooo, now what am I going to do about our "Pokemon vs. MonHun" bet?? :(

...What bet? Enlighten me :p
However, really fast his passage here, but he'll be always remembered for thinking forecasts are facts.
 

ThatObviousUser

ὁ αἴσχιστος παῖς εἶ
...What bet? Enlighten me :p
However, really fast his passage here, but he'll be always remembered for thinking forecasts are facts.

He said the next main Monster Hunter would definitely outsell the next main Pokemon, or something to that effect. And also that a Vita-original MH would outsell any 3DS installment.
 
http://www.siliconera.com/2012/02/0...tions-sold-75-of-its-first-shipment-in-japan/



Correct me if I'm wrong, but if ToIR sold 70% of its initial shipment, then sales more or less met expectations, which means it was not the abysmal failure some posters are painting it as?


Sounds like retailers should have ordered more units. We need to know Bandai Namco's expectations were for the game to know if it is a success, stores could have denied taking any more copies than the 75K fearing having to many in stock.
 

duckroll

Member
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if ToIR sold 70% of its initial shipment, then sales more or less met expectations, which means it was not the abysmal failure some posters are painting it as?

Shipments do not always represent sales expectations. Shipments represent retail expectations. Which is to say, if a game has high sell-through, this is good for retailers because it means they have correctly judged how much of a game to order, and they are unlikely to be stuck with a ton of unsold stock in months to come.

A publisher cannot decide entirely on their own to ship exactly what they want to sell into the market. Retailers will not pay for stock they don't want. There are various methods that big publishers can force a higher shipment if it is a major franchise, and they have special conditions for orders being placed. In the case of lower selling titles, a small initial shipment simply reflects a lack of retail demand via preorders and general consumer interest before the release of the game, thus it would be impossible for the publisher to ship much more than that.

When you develop a game, you might have expectations that the game needs to sell 200k for example, for it to be successful. This is a sales expectation. When the game is done, maybe no one wants it at all, and so you are only able to ship 80k at most into retail. If the game then sells 70% of that in the first week, it does not mean that the game is close to meeting sales expectations, merely that retailers were cautious on it and they are rewarded by not having overstock. If the game does not continue to sell, and eventually retailers only order another 20k, the game will still have sold 100k in total and missed the mark of the 200k expectation by half.

I hope that explains things.
 
He said the next main Monster Hunter would definitely outsell the next main Pokemon, or something to that effect. And also that a Vita-original MH would outsell any 3DS installment.

The first part just crazy, and he probably would have been banned long before the second part becomes a reality to see the outcome...
 

saichi

Member
Shipments do not always represent sales expectations. Shipments represent retail expectations. Which is to say, if a game has high sell-through, this is good for retailers because it means they have correctly judged how much of a game to order, and they are unlikely to be stuck with a ton of unsold stock in months to come.

A publisher cannot decide entirely on their own to ship exactly what they want to sell into the market. Retailers will not pay for stock they don't want. There are various methods that big publishers can force a higher shipment if it is a major franchise, and they have special conditions for orders being placed. In the case of lower selling titles, a small initial shipment simply reflects a lack of retail demand via preorders and general consumer interest before the release of the game, thus it would be impossible for the publisher to ship much more than that.

When you develop a game, you might have expectations that the game needs to sell 200k for example, for it to be successful. This is a sales expectation. When the game is done, maybe no one wants it at all, and so you are only able to ship 80k at most into retail. If the game then sells 70% of that in the first week, it does not mean that the game is close to meeting sales expectations, merely that retailers were cautious on it and they are rewarded by not having overstock. If the game does not continue to sell, and eventually retailers only order another 20k, the game will still have sold 100k in total and missed the mark of the 200k expectation by half.

I hope that explains things.

well said. I wish you posted this when people were saying SE was smart for only shipping 850K of FFXIII-2 and the title is meeting their expectation be cause it will sell through that shipment.

Speaking of expectations, Disgaea 3 for Vita sold more than NIS expected:

http://andriasang.com/comzup/nippon_ichi_earnings

As of 2012/01/01, D3R sold 36K according to Famitsu. Either NIS had extreme realistic/low expectation or it's selling really well on PSN.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
He said the next main Monster Hunter would definitely outsell the next main Pokemon, or something to that effect. And also that a Vita-original MH would outsell any 3DS installment.

Oh, wow. He was so calm, however.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Sounds like retailers should have ordered more units. We need to know Bandai Namco's expectations were for the game to know if it is a success, stores could have denied taking any more copies than the 75K fearing having to many in stock.

The game will drop like a rock this week.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
The next two Nintendo games will be Kid Icarus and Fire Emblem. The latter will be reasonably big (over 200k). Kid Icarus probably not so much, but I could be wrong.

Kid Icarus is a sort of a wild card.
 

Celine

Member
Kid Icarus is a sort of a wild card.
Unless multiplayer can gather enough interest I doubt it can sell big numbers (let's says more than 250k).

Sure japanese gamers have fondest memories ( compared to Sin & Punishment ) about Kid Icarus from the Famicom days but we all know how good this kind of shooter sells.
 

duckroll

Member
I don't really feel that Kid Icarus is a wild card. There are no signs at all that I've seen which indicate that the release can make it big in Japan in any meaningful way. There is way too much thematic disconnect in the genre the game is aiming for and the actual visuals and designs that the game has, not to mention the IP it is using. It's hard to tell who the game is really "for", because it contains elements which might appeal to a lot of different people on their own, but when put together it seems it will basically appeal to no one at all.

The Nintendo brand is strong, so it'll probably be able to ship out 100-200k easily, but I don't expect it to be able to sell 200k, and it might even struggle to 150k (if it ships that much).
 

Bebpo

Banned
As of 2012/01/01, D3R sold 36K according to Famitsu. Either NIS had extreme realistic/low expectation or it's selling really well on PSN.

The game cost them very, very little to make as with most N1 handheld ports. Just the cost of the additional content. Those sales are pure profit.
 

Jocchan

Ὁ μεμβερος -ου
AZ was a junior, right? So I guess he won't be back?

I don't really feel that Kid Icarus is a wild card. There are no signs at all that I've seen which indicate that the release can make it big in Japan in any meaningful way. There is way too much thematic disconnect in the genre the game is aiming for and the actual visuals and designs that the game has, not to mention the IP it is using. It's hard to tell who the game is really "for", because it contains elements which might appeal to a lot of different people on their own, but when put together it seems it will basically appeal to no one at all.
Agreed.
 

Takao

Banned
As of 2012/01/01, D3R sold 36K according to Famitsu. Either NIS had extreme realistic/low expectation or it's selling really well on PSN.

NIS games don't cost much so it's pretty much easy money as long as the port is competent. That said, D3R has sold about half of what D2P (Famitsu numbers) did on PSP. D3R being a launch game means it'll have some decent legs. Heck, DP did less than 20k first week, and managed to end up over 100k. Note, I'm not saying D3R is going to hit 100k, I'm saying it's not done selling yet.
 

sphinx

the piano man
The Nintendo brand is strong, so it'll probably be able to ship out 100-200k easily, but I don't expect it to be able to sell 200k, and it might even struggle to 150k (if it ships that much).

I think that's being extremely generous, I am expecting around 70k~80k LTD.

Better, more reknown IPs have sold less, like Metroid. Kid Icarus has nothing going on for it, it's like the occasional Blaster Master Flop, the neat but missable Rygar game. Nintendo knows this but since there was a portion of the nintendo fanbase asking for a Kid Icarus game through the gamecube years, nintendo thought "oh, what the hell, here, have it". I don't think they are expecting much nor they care about sales that much.

If there is a real public I can think of that could care for Kid Icarus, is the metroid fanbase that has been following nintendo since the NES or the Gameboy. Those that dug the "premium" nintendo series back when people barely knew about anything other than mario.

EDIT: oh, you mean shipped, well, I'll just leave the text.
 

mclem

Member
3DS is holding up surprisingly well. What is the next "big" Nintendo's game for the handheld?

It has just had a big release, so I'm not sure you can take this week as a sign that it's levelled out after the post-Christmas drop... but it's definitely selling healthily for a quiet time of the year.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Animal Crossing I guess. Kid Icarus, Luigi's Mansion and Fire Emblem won't be anything special.

Yes, Animal Crossing is the next BIG Nintendo release for 3DS. There's no doubt about this.
 
I don't really feel that Kid Icarus is a wild card. There are no signs at all that I've seen which indicate that the release can make it big in Japan in any meaningful way. There is way too much thematic disconnect in the genre the game is aiming for and the actual visuals and designs that the game has, not to mention the IP it is using. It's hard to tell who the game is really "for", because it contains elements which might appeal to a lot of different people on their own, but when put together it seems it will basically appeal to no one at all.

The Nintendo brand is strong, so it'll probably be able to ship out 100-200k easily, but I don't expect it to be able to sell 200k, and it might even struggle to 150k (if it ships that much).

KI:U is a Nintendo game shipping with an exclusive peripheral, and those sell like gang busters. That's why it got the stand, not because it's difficult to play otherwise.
 

Kenka

Member
Media Create Sales: Week 4, 2012 (Jan 23 - Jan 29)

12./12. [WII] Just Dance Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.10.13} (¥5.800) - 7.837 / 519.199 (-6%)
To me, this is the most important news that 2012 has given to us so far: Just Dance will have golem-sized legs. And it may pass the 1M bar, selling eventually more than FF XIII-2.


This is mind-blowing, and I think this is one occurence when this expression is suitable,
 
To me, this is the most important news that 2012 has given to us so far: Just Dance will have golem-sized legs. And it may pass the 1M bar, selling eventually more than FF XIII-2.

And it's such a bizarrely universal title.
Selling amazingly world wide.
Ubisoft are made geniuses for that game.
 
To me, this is the most important news that 2012 has given to us so far: Just Dance will have golem-sized legs. And it may pass the 1M bar, selling eventually more than FF XIII-2.


This is mind-blowing, and I think this is one occurence when this expression is suitable,

I doubt it'll hit a million if only because nintendo has surely got enough sense to get the sequel out
 
As far as big 3DS games for 2012, I'm going to say Kirby. It may not be announced, but they seem to shoot up out of nowhere like fungus the last few years.
 

duckroll

Member
KI:U is a Nintendo game shipping with an exclusive peripheral, and those sell like gang busters. That's why it got the stand, not because it's difficult to play otherwise.

A stand is a peripheral now? Lol. No one gives a crap about the stand, it's not going to make any difference. If you think a stupid stand is going to help sell the game, then... I don't know what to say. Lol.
 
A stand is a peripheral now? Lol. No one gives a crap about the stand, it's not going to make any difference. If you think a stupid stand is going to help sell the game, then... I don't know what to say. Lol.

I paid more than $40 for an almost identical iPad stand.

What is the lowest selling Nintendo game sold with a first run peripheral? (Flingsmash etc don't count since that fire had already burned).
 

TheNatural

My Member!
I paid more than $40 for an almost identical iPad stand.

What is the lowest selling Nintendo game sold with a first run peripheral? (Flingsmash etc don't count since that fire had already burned).

Send me $60 and I'll send you an exclusive iPad cleaner.

UShapeAcrylicNapkinHold_l.jpg


Free shipping too.
 

Kazerei

Banned
The Wii Zapper was actually a pack-in with Ghost Squad first. Total bomba.

Never heard of it until now, and supposedly it was released worldwide by Sega. Huh.

That's one of the best selling Zeldas, is it not?

In Japan, it's actually one of the worst selling Zeldas.

Link's Crossbow Training is the closest thing to Kid Icarus Uprising I can think of. A rail shooter packed with an optional peripheral that helps you play and can be used with other games but is really just a useless piece of plastic. LCT eventually crossed the 200k mark, but I don't think KIU will have the legs to make it there.

Anyways, you probably shouldn't go around saying silly things like exclusive peripherals selling gangbusters. Just look what happened to AZ2002.
 
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