• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Microsoft aims for 40% market share in Germany

Colbert

Banned
The federal data protection commissioner is part of the overreacting internet public? I suppose he might be, but I really think he should do some work instead.

I forgot about that. Yes he had expressed concerns which is his job but as far as I know there are no actions in place to investigate further on the matter.
 

cebri.one

Member
Well, PS2 had a domination 2:1 over its competitors, now Nintendo is missing, is not that crazy. But i'm sure it will be more close to 30% than 40%.
 

Ding-Ding

Member
Their goal is to eat Nintendo's market share, not Sony's. I'd say that's a more realistic target.

I wouldn't say its realistic to think you are going to take market share away from Nintendo when a big factor of the Wii's success was price.

If anything it would be Sony taking Nintendo's share. Only way I see MS being relatively successfully is if they drop kinect fast
 

AOC83

Banned
Well, PS2 had a domination 2:1 over its competitors, now Nintendo is missing, is not that crazy. But i'm sure it will be more close to 30% than 40%.

They´d need a really quick pricecut and some very heavy hitting exclusives to even come close to 30%.
 

Fritz

Member
They got a lot of bad rep for their data collection policy here. Now with all the NSA drama I can see that harming sales at least with casuals. Germans are sensitive when it comes to their data.
 

modulaire

Member
They got a lot of bad rep for their data collection policy here. Now with all the NSA drama I can see that harming sales at least with casuals. Germans are sensitive when it comes to their data.

Exactly. All the mainstream media coverage will mention Kinect and how they might use it to spy on people.
 

Colbert

Banned
I wouldn't say its realistic to think you are going to take market share away from Nintendo when a big factor of the Wii's success was price.

If anything it would be Sony taking Nintendo's share. Only way I see MS being relatively successfully is if they drop kinect fast

From a business perspective they have reached their current market share from almost nothing to 22% (based on the numbers from Media Control). If you look on the market share Nintendo has at the moment it is quite possible that MS (and Sony too) can take a whole chunk of that Nintendo share to strengthen their own position. So in my opinion the 40% target that MS is after is not impossible to reach depending how Nintendo is successful or not.
 

ymmv

Banned
Scandinavia and Benelux is probably gonna order Xbox Ones from France and Germany untill its out in their countries so i would expect an almost 1-1 ratio for those months..

Sure buddy... Only Xbox 360 diehards will import a console, the vast majority of gamers who want to stick with MS will wait it out. The ratio will be at least 95:5 in favor of the brand that will actually launch in Scandinavia and Benelux. (Maybe even more in the Benelux since Sony is far more popular there anyway). MS will only lose more marketshare in the next years compared with the current generation.
 

twl

Banned
From the looks of it Microsoft won't be getting 40% of the market anywhere unless they got some zetaton-bombs for their launch and a pricecut to go with that.
 

Colbert

Banned
Sure buddy... Only Xbox 360 diehards will import a console, the vast majority of gamers who want to stick with MS will wait it out. The ratio will be at least 95:5 in favor of the brand that will actually launch in Scandinavia and Benelux. (Maybe even more in the Benelux since Sony is far more popular there anyway). MS will only lose more marketshare in the next years compared with the current generation.

I am not sure about that. We should revisit your statement in about two years.
 

ymmv

Banned
I am not sure about that. We should revisit your statement in about two years.

That 95:5 ratio is only for the upcoming months of course when the Xbox One hasn't even launched officially. (5% importers is a rather generous estimate in fact, it will probably be even less)

But I forgot about one thing: the implosion of Nintendo in the console space (not handheld space). If Nintendo keeps losing ground with the Wii U, MS could grab a larger share of the console market, but it won't mean that much when the market as a whole is shrinking and Sony will still get out on top by growing even more.
 
I am not sure about that. We should revisit your statement in about two years.

I'm far more curious how exactly we could measure imported consoles anyways?

If those countries import in XB1's how do we note that?

Sales will be noted in countries imported from not to
 
The XboxOne market model isn't very appliable in Germany. Digital distribution of 40+ Gigabyte games in Germany will be fun. The internet is slow and the German Telekom still tries to set up a bandwidth limit (the latest court decision stopped this idea for now, but we will see...). Furthermore, we have the Gema restrictions (most of our music Youtube videos are blocked due to license restrictions), Netflix isn't working, and we don't watch NFL. And yes, games like Dead Island or Dead Rising are banned in Germany.
 

Colbert

Banned
So you think that people that are on the fence are willing to import the more expensive console rather than buy the cheaper one at their local retailer?

I am not only thinking it I actually know it from players on my friends list that are living in countries that are not in the first wave of supported markets. And I would not say that are diehard fans of the XBox brand because as me most of them currently have playstation and Xbox in their homes as far as they told me.

So from my experience/environment I can confirm that there a gamers that will import a Xbox because it is not a "import" like from the US or Japan. We are living in the EU which makes such things much more easy and less expensive.
 
I'm far more curious how exactly we could measure imported consoles anyways?

If those countries import in XB1's how do we note that?

Sales will be noted in countries imported from not to

Well, we could tell if we were somehow able to pull the number of people playing in the regions that the console hasn't come out in yet. But yeah, there's definitely no surefire way to find out.

But I think the ymmv's point was that the percentage of importers will be MUCH lower than the people who are just going to buy the competition at a local retailer regardless of the exact figures. I think 1-1 is a fantasy, and makes no sense as there is no evidence that any imported product (especially more expensive ones) will match the sales of domestically sold products.

I am not only thinking it I actually know it from players on my friends list that are living in countries that are not in the first wave of supported markets. And I would not say that are diehard fans of the XBox brand because as me most of them currently have playstation and Xbox in their homes as far as they told me.

So from my experience/environment I can confirm that there a gamers that will import a Xbox because it is not a "import" like from the US or Japan. We are living in the EU which makes such things much more easy and less expensive.

So you're basing your entire prediction on anecdotal evidence of your own friends list?

As far as I can tell, MS has not made the Xbone enticing enough that people would be willing to go out of their way (even a little) to get it over the PS4 (which is cheaper and can be bought much more easily). If they had something compelling I might agree with out. And I think that the launch lineup stuff is still much more in the hardcore fan territory of "they would get a One anyways" which is much smaller than the "would get the PS4 anyway" AND the "likes more powerful hardware for less money" crowd. I'm not saying the importers will not exist, of course they will be there. But if you're expecting 1-1 ratios, prepare to be disappointed.
 

Colbert

Banned
But I forgot about one thing: the implosion of Nintendo in the console space (not handheld space). If Nintendo keeps losing ground with the Wii U, MS could grab a larger share of the console market, but it won't mean that much when the market as a whole is shrinking and Sony will stop get out on top.

Thats a way I think of it too.
 

PunchFu

Neo Member
German and Xbox One Preordered here. One could get really big if they are going to push more services like in the USA on Xbox. Good Music and Video deals. Support satellite and cabel boxes not just Sky.
Kinect Games for kids could sell a lot of units too.
Teens are going for bigger numbers on paper here though.
 

Colbert

Banned
The XboxOne market model isn't very appliable in Germany. Digital distribution of 40+ Gigabyte games in Germany will be fun. The internet is slow and the German Telekom still tries to set up a bandwidth limit (the latest court decision stopped this idea for now, but we will see...). Furthermore, we have the Gema restrictions (most of our music Youtube videos are blocked due to license restrictions), Netflix isn't working, and we don't watch NFL. And yes, games like Dead Island or Dead Rising are banned in Germany.

The internet in Germany is slow? Depends really where you live. If you live deep in the country side, yes, you are totally right. But if you live in a City like Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich, Frankfurt, and so on, you have bandwidth enough to do it (like me 100Mb/s down and 30Mb/s up). And nobody has to download the stuff you can still buy a disc via internet or local retailer.

And at the moment there is no difference between PS4 and Xbox on that matter because both machines requires day one update patches for the console itself and many of its games (see BF4, AC4).
 

Colbert

Banned
German and Xbox One Preordered here. One could get really big if they are going to push more services like in the USA on Xbox. Good Music and Video deals. Support satellite and cabel boxes not just Sky.
Kinect Games for kids could sell a lot of units too.
Teens are going for bigger numbers on paper here though.

Agree and totally true. MS is weak on the features for the german audience compared to US and UK!
 
That 95:5 ratio is only for the upcoming months of course when the Xbox One hasn't even launched officially. (5% importers is a rather generous estimate in fact, it will probably be even less)

But I forgot about one thing: the implosion of Nintendo in the console space (not handheld space). If Nintendo keeps losing ground with the Wii U, MS could grab a larger share of the console market, but it won't mean that much when the market as a whole is shrinking and Sony will still get out on top by growing even more.

If you took the Wii completely out of the equation from the numbers shinra-bansho posted, you come to this:
PS3: 3.9M (62%)
Xbox 360: 2.4M (38%)

And that's with the mountainload of advantages the 360 had. Now Microsoft's on the backfoot with a far more expensive, weaker system and a ton of controversy, while Sony is firing on all cylinders. I find it difficult to believe Microsoft even have a chance of getting close to 40% marketshare.
 
By the looks of it, I don't think at the moment that MS is in great shape in Germany. I've been to my local Gamestop yesterday, and their "preorder shelf" for the Xbox One is half height and just one "unit" wide. Compared to PS4, which is 2 "units" wide and full height. (by comparison, the Wii U shelf is one unit wide, full height, PSVita/PSP share a full unit, and PS3 has like 4 units). But it's a rather small shop. And that is when the Xbox One launches a week earlier here than PS4 does. My local Media Markt even had 4 preorders left for the Xbox, when it was sold out in the first week for PS4.

And yes, Dead Rising 3 will not come here. The USK has not given the game a rating, which always leads to a console game not coming out here (PC game usually still do). The thing is, if it gets a rating, it cannot be banned afterwards, if it doesn't, you can still sell it, but have to fear to be banned. Thus console makers don't let publishers sell games without a rating here.

And PEGI has no power here. I know it's "Pan European", but as always, our damned youth protection laws force us to go our separate way, thus the USK. Not a single Dead Rising game was ever released here. But... thanks to easy import and import laws, just get it anywhere else... preferably the UK, since their games prices are a lot lower than ours.

Btw... first post here^^ long time lurker, though,
 

Colbert

Banned
How do you say "Have you seen" in German?

Can be very different:
"Hast Du gesehen" or "Haben Sie gesehen" or "Habt ihr gesehen". "You" can be "Sie" or "Du" or "Ihr" depends on the form of relationship between two persons. "Du" for strong/deeper relationships or on a casual level. Oh man, this is really very difficult to explain ... :)
 

Gambit

Member
Never gonna happen. I'd be surprised if the Xboxone even manages to repeat the 360s performance.

It's anecdotal, but the word-of-mouth for Xboxone incredbily bad.

If anything I am expecting a PS2-like situation in Germany.
 
The internet in Germany is slow? Depends really where you live. If you live deep in the country side, yes, you are totally right. But if you live in a City like Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich, Frankfurt, and so on, you have bandwidth enough to do it (like me 100Mb/s down and 30Mb/s up). And nobody has to download the stuff you can still buy a disc via internet or local retailer.

True, but as you said, it's limited to very specific regions. I live in a smaller town (160.000 people) and my possible 6,8 Mbit/s are just a wish. My buddy lives just 10 kilometers outside of the town and he can't even stream movies or shows and there is no chance to change it with a different internet distributor.

German amazon sells Dead Rising 3:
http://www.amazon.de/dp/B00FR6RLA4/

So I'm not sure what kind of ban you are talking about.

It's legal to buy until they banned it. Gears of War is also banned in Germany. And here is a good example how games are cut for the German market: Schnittbericht - the two new consoles are not region locked, right? Mock me if old, but that would be really bad.
 

Josman

Member
Seems possible, considering the Wii U is dead everywhere, maybe something 5% Wii U, 30-35% X1, 60-65% ps4?

Btw was GTA V banned in Germany? Hilarious if not
 
Top Bottom