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[Windu]

Yeah. There just is no proper way for me to explain, you kind of need to at least visit the area a bit. rareside might be able to better.

I still think there is a chance that even if they keep winning it they still might not make enough revenue to keep things even more interesting. It's just strange.

yeah I live in Arkansas, its the same. instead of the cowboys its the razorbacks. Very annoying.

Anyway my theory on why the south doesn't like baseball as much is this:

Atlanta 1966
Miami 1993
Tampa Bay 1998
Dallas 1972
Houston 1962
Kansas City 1969

and then there is St. Louis who has been around since 1882. And they love their team, baseball is king there.

 

[Sanjuro]

yeah I live in Arkansas.

Now that explains why you gargle MLB.TV's balls. :lol

I agree with St. Louis. Some of the nicest fans you can meet.

 

[Windu]

Now that explains why you gargle MLB.TV's balls. :lol

I agree with St. Louis. Some of the nicest fans you can meet.

lol, I love me some MLB.TV.

drinks mouthwash

 

[Corran Horn]

mlb.tv will be some much better if they could remove the blackouts. I love me to watch games while Im away from a tv :/

 

[rareside]

Dallas (and much of Texas) is and always will be Cowboy country. I should say town, but country is probably more appropriate because you feel like you might as well be in another country if you dislike football. I really don't care for football, but you guys hit the nail on the head with your high school football comparison.

Our local sports radio station asked the question earlier this year, before AND after the Rangers success: "Would you rather go to a Rangers playoff game or a Cowboys regular season game?"

An overwhelming majority chose the cowboys. I'd rank the following in terms of popularity in the DFW area:

1) Cowboys
2) College Football
3) Mavericks
4) High School Football
5) Peewee Football
6) Rangers
.
.
.
99) Stars

 

[CygnusXS]

Reds and Jay Bruce agreed to a 6/51 (8.5 AAV) extension with a 12mm option for a seventh year.

First instinct is that this is really team friendly. Good one Reds.

 

[cashman]

What? What are you TALKING about? I'm talking about his deal tying up their financial resources and making them considerably less flexible to do anything. They're trying to move Michael Young for chrissake.

Yeah, they're trying to move Michael Young, because they want to try and make a push for Adrian Beltre. They have more cheap talent, and more financial flexibility than they ever did at any point in the last 10 years. They'll be fine.

 

[Windu]

Reds and Jay Bruce agreed to a 6/51 (8.5 AAV) extension with a 12mm option for a seventh year.

First instinct is that this is really team friendly. Good one Reds.

hopefully that contract will help keep heyward's price down.

 

[Mr. Enigma]

New Cliff Lee news:

Yankees original offer to Lee was 6 years, $140 million. They recently upgraded their offer to 7 years, but the contract is less annually than $23.3 million (the original offer). One source tells ESPN that the Yankees would be willing to go to $25 million annually if that's what it takes. They're very bowed up about the Red Sox signing Crawford, so they may go to ridiculous lengths to sign Lee.

The Rangers upgraded their original 5-year deal to a 6-year one, but the money may not be as high as the Yankees' new offer.

Nolan Ryan doesn't make it sound too favorable that the Rangers will go neck-and-neck with the Yankees in the money department. "At some point, you hit a threshold where it doesn't make financial sense. You scratch your head at some of these contracts being given out this week."

 

[CajoleJuice]

7/175 jesus christ

 

[Windu]

 

[jakncoke]

Gary Sheffield predicting Adrian Gonzalez going to tie the ML doubles record, hmmm..

 

[eznark]

Fuck St. Louis

Gary Sheffield predicting Adrian Gonzalez going to tie the ML doubles record, hmmm..

Please tell me someone didn't put that guy on TV.

 

[CajoleJuice]

Gary Sheffield predicting Adrian Gonzalez going to tie the ML doubles record, hmmm..

Yeah, that's a stretch, but he has a career wOBA of .488 with balls hit the opposite field. It has been above .500 all of the past three seasons. He is going to be hitting balls off that wall like clockwork.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Gary Sheffield predicting Adrian Gonzalez going to tie the ML doubles record, hmmm..

Did he accuse the ML doubles record of being racist?

 

[eznark]

Someone please tell me MLBN didn't hire Sheffield

 

[jakncoke]

Predicting greatness: Former All-Star outfielder Gary Sheffield says the Red Sox are the team to beat for the World Series, establishing themselves as the clear favorite after signing Crawford.

"That's the perfect fit," Sheffield says. "He's the closest thing to Rickey Henderson. Now he's going to put up Rickey Henderson-type numbers."

The addition of Crawford, Sheffield says, will be a boon for first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, acquired last weekend from the San Diego Padres.

"I really believe he will hit 70 doubles," Sheffield says. "Write it down. I'm predicting 70 doubles."

The major league record for doubles is 70, by Earl Webb of the 1931 Red Sox.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2010-12-09-base-notes-rangers-pitch-lee_N.htm

Here's where I found it from

 

[jman2050]

"That's the perfect fit," Sheffield says. "He's the closest thing to Rickey Henderson. Now he's going to put up Rickey Henderson-type numbers."

wut

 

[eznark]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2010-12-09-base-notes-rangers-pitch-lee_N.htm

Here's where I found it from

asshole you almost gave me an aneurysm

 

[CajoleJuice]

wut

fuk obp

 

[ToxicAdam]

Gary Sheffield and Albert Belle need their own baseball show.

 

[eznark]

Gary Sheffield and Albert Belle need their own baseball show.

in prison

 

[Sharp]

It's weird how spectacularly bad most players are at actually understanding baseball stats.

 

[eznark]

It's weird how spectacularly bad most players are at actually understanding baseball stats.

Why? Most ex-baseball players who are now commenting on the game barely finished high school.

 

[Lambtron]

fuk obp

Made up stat.

 

[CygnusXS]

Was Jay Bruce a 3 or 4 year arbitration candidate?

This is my estimate for his value over the duration of the contract:

	pWAR	$/WAR	fmV($)	arb%	arbV($)
Year 1	5	5	25	0.4	10
Year 2	5.5	5	27.5	0.6	16.5
Year 3	5.5	5.5	30.25	0.8	24.2
Year 4	5.5	5.5	30.25	1	30.25
Year 5	5	6	30	1	30
Year 6	4.5	6	27	1	27
Totals	31	33	170		137.95

You could mess with the projected WAR (pWAR) amounts and get lesser amounts, but this does seem really team friendly. Hopefully the Braves can sign Heyward to a 6/60 or 6/72 with a club option before his first arbitration hearing (next offseason I think?).

Edit:

	pWAR	$/WAR	fmV($)	arb%	arbV($)
Year 1	4	5	20	0.4	8
Year 2	4.5	5	22.5	0.6	13.5
Year 3	5	5.25	26.25	0.8	21
Year 4	5	5.25	26.25	1	26.25
Year 5	4.5	5.5	24.75	1	24.75
Year 6	4	5.5	22	1	22
Totals	27	31.5	141.75		115.5

More conservative, still a massive underpay. Come on Braves, be like the Reds.

 

[Sharp]

Why? Most ex-baseball players who are now commenting on the game barely finished high school.

You'd think they'd have at least some instinctive knowledge of these things, though... a few players seem to.

Made up stat.

If it's so important why don't they show it on scoreboard </Francoeur>

 

[Windu]

Was Jay Bruce a 3 or 4 year arbitration candidate?

This is my estimate for his value over the duration of the contract:

	pWAR	$/WAR	fmV($)	arb%	arbV($)
Year 1	5	5	25	0.4	10
Year 2	5.5	5	27.5	0.6	16.5
Year 3	5.5	5.5	30.25	0.8	24.2
Year 4	5.5	5.5	30.25	1	30.25
Year 5	5	6	30	1	30
Year 6	4.5	6	27	1	27
Totals	31	33	170		137.95

You could mess with the projected WAR (pWAR) amounts and get lesser amounts, but this does seem really team friendly. Hopefully the Braves can sign Heyward to a 6/60 or 6/72 with a club option before his first arbitration hearing (next offseason I think?).

yeah his first year is 2013. Lowe's contract will be gone after the 2012 season so maybe they would actually go through arbitration, doubtful though.

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

You'd think they'd have at least some instinctive knowledge of these things, though... a few players seem to.

If it's so important why don't they show it on scoreboard </Francoeur>

did he actually say that?????

 

[Sharp]

did he actually say that?????

Yes. The best part is, they do show OBP on the scoreboard in Turner Field. Where he played.

 

[jakncoke]

Yes. The best part is, they do show OBP on the scoreboard in Turner Field. Where he played.

:lol

 

[Windu]

did he actually say that?????

For Atlanta outfielder Jeff Francoeur, the search for a more disciplined approach is elusive and the source of occasional torment. Francoeur began this season with loose goals of 80 strikeouts and 50 to 60 walks. But he's always been an aggressive player, and he's wary of becoming too passive in the quest for a higher OBP.

"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?" Francoeur says.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=4136793

 

[CygnusXS]

yeah his first year is 2013. Lowe's contract will be gone after the 2012 season so maybe they would actually go through arbitration, doubtful though.

I just did way too much research to figure this out, but if we have him under team control for 2010-2015, and he's a super two, then wouldn't his first arb year be in 2012? Making him a 4 year arb with a 20/40/60/80 split (roughly).

Which gives me:

Age	pWAR	$/WAR	fmV($)	arb%	arbV($)		
21	4.5	5	22.5	0	0		
22	5	5	25	0.2	5		
23	5	5.25	26.25	0.4	10.5		
24	5.5	5.25	28.875	0.6	17.325		
25	6	5.5	33	0.8	26.4		
26	5.5	5.5	30.25	1	30.25		
27	5	5.75	28.75	1	28.75		
28	4.5	5.75	25.875	1	25.875		
29	4	6	24	1	24		fmV-arbV
Totals	45		244.5		168.1		76.40

Comparable years to Bruce:

22	5	5	25	0.2	5
23	5	5.25	26.25	0.4	10.5
24	5.5	5.25	28.875	0.6	17.325
25	6	5.5	33	0.8	26.4
26	5.5	5.5	30.25	1	30.25
27	5	5.75	28.75	1	28.75
					118.225

6/72 seems pretty fair.

 

[Mr. Enigma]

Heyward's first year of arbitration is 2012. There was a lot of debate on whether the Braves would start the first two weeks of the season without Heyward to delay his arbitration clock (like the Rays did with Evan Longoria in 2008). They decided to start with Heyward.

 

[Windu]

he would have had 4 years of arbitration if we kept him in the minors until late april, but since he started opening day he is going to be a FA one year earlier.

2010
2011
2012
2013 Arb
2014 Arb
2015 Arb
2016 Arb FA

http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=1892

 

[CygnusXS]

Well in that case, comparable years to Bruce:

23		5	5.25	26.25		0.4	10.5
24		5.5	5.25	28.875		0.6	17.325
25		6	5.5	33		0.8	26.4
26		5.5	5.5	30.25		1	30.25
27		5	5.75	28.75		1	28.75
28		4.5	5.75	25.875		1	25.875
Totals		31.5		173			139.1

So about $140mm for his arb years and 3 years of free agency. 6/72 might not cut it.

Then again, you can change the arb% to 25/50/50 and get $122.375mm, which is closer to my original estimate, but I'd rather stick with 40/60/80.

 

[Windu]

6/98?

 

[Mr. Enigma]

Francoeur's got to be kicking his own ass for turning down that 6-year/$28 million deal from the Braves in 2006. He would be making $6.5 million this year and $8.5 million in 2012. :lol

 

[bigtroyjon]

Heyward's first year of arbitration is 2012. There was a lot of debate on whether the Braves would start the first two weeks of the season without Heyward to delay his arbitration clock (like the Rays did with Evan Longoria in 2008). They decided to start with Heyward.

Heywards first arb year should be 2013, holding him out a couple of weeks wouldn't have changed the arb year because he would have been a super 2 but it would have given another year of team control.

edit- nevermind, windu already clarified,

 

[Windu]

Francoeur's got to be kicking his own ass for turning down that 6-year/$28 million deal from the Braves in 2006. He would be making $6.5 million this year and $8.5 million in 2012.

thankfully he is greedy.

Heywards first arb year should be 2013, holding him out a couple of weeks wouldn't have changed the arb year because he would have been a super 2 but it would have given another year of team control.

yep. If the braves held him till sometime around June he wouldn't have been super two eligible. First Arbitration year would have been 2014. (and we would have missed the playoffs).

 

[funkmastergeneral]

I thought Yankees fans would enjoy this article by Nick Cafardo in the globe this morning

FIRST BASE: Adrian Gonzalez vs. Mark Teixeira. The feeling is the Sox will eventually win this battle. Gonzalez is two years younger and has a .904 career OPS to Teixeira’s .913. Teixeira has put up 30 homers seven times and 100 RBIs seven times. Gonzalez’s numbers should rise in Fenway Park. Advantage: Red Sox.

SECOND BASE: Dustin Pedroia vs. Robinson Cano. Two of the best in the game. Pedroia is coming back from a broken foot and looking to regain his MVP form. Cano finished third in MVP voting this past season, with a .319 average, 29 homers, and 109 RBIs. Cano is a tremendous hitter with power, a much different player from Pedroia, though his defense is also superb. Advantage: Even.



SHORTSTOP: Derek Jeter vs. Marco Scutaro/Jed Lowrie. Jeter won the Gold Glove, but come on, he has little range. He had his worst offensive season, but no one would be surprised if he returned to the form he showed two years ago, when he had one of his best seasons. Lowrie remains an intriguing player because of his bat; he could be a force at the plate if he gets playing time over Scutaro. Advantage: Red Sox.

THIRD BASE: Kevin Youkilis vs. Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod may have had his worst season, hitting .270 with 30 homers and 125 RBIs — but it’s still better than most. Youkilis is returning from thumb surgery and will embark on a new challenge as the starting third baseman for the entire season. Youkilis is an on-base machine and probably is in a better place in his career than A-Rod. But you can’t ignore the ungodly production that one of the greatest players ever still gives you. Advantage: Yankees.

CATCHER: Jarrod Saltalamacchia vs. Jesus Montero. The Salty experiment is based purely on his potential. Montero is a rookie who could be a monster hitter but is a potential liability behind the plate. Montero’s upside as a hitter may be higher than Salty’s, but right now Salty has the defensive advantage. Advantage: Even.

LEFT FIELD: Carl Crawford vs. Brett Gardner. Crawford is an elite all-around player, and while Gardner is a very good base stealer and hitter, he can’t match Crawford as a pure hitter or a power hitter. Advantage: Red Sox.

CENTER FIELD: Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Curtis Granderson. It’s difficult to judge Ellsbury coming off an injury-filled season, but if you judged him coming off 2009 — 70 steals, a .301 average, spectacular defense at times — he wouldn’t be far from Granderson in terms of all-around effectiveness. If Ellsbury gets it back, he’s a game-changer, but until he shows he can, Granderson, as much he struggles at times, can be the more effective player because of the power aspects to his game. Advantage: Yankees.

RIGHT FIELD: J.D. Drew vs. Nick Swisher. You’d prefer Drew to Swisher as your defensive right fielder, even though Drew didn’t have that good a year on defense last season. Offensively, Swisher has become the better offensive player (29 homers, 87 RBIs), while Drew had his worst season since 2002 with the Cardinals. Advantage: Yankees.

DH: David Ortiz vs. Jorge Posada. Ortiz is a pure DH and had a good season after a poor start, hitting 32 homers and driving in 102 runs. Posada will have to get used to a new role, while Ortiz is an old pro at it. Advantage: Red Sox.

STARTING PITCHING: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, and Ivan Nova. Obviously, adding Andy Pettitte and/or Cliff Lee will greatly improve the Yankees’ situation. But right now, this could spell New York’s downfall. On the flip side, Boston’s resurgence seems very much tied into whether Beckett and Lackey can return to their prominent status. Advantage: Red Sox.

BULLPEN: Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard vs. Mariano Rivera and Joba Chamberlain. Both teams need to add a couple of middle relievers. It could be the strength of those pitchers that determines how good these bullpens will be. Papelbon had a poor season while Rivera may be better than ever. Advantage: Yankees.

 

[mYm|17|]

It will be amazing when neither the Yankees or Red Sox win the World Series next year

a man can dream can't he

 

[Sharp]

Francoeur's got to be kicking his own ass for turning down that 6-year/$28 million deal from the Braves in 2006. He would be making $6.5 million this year and $8.5 million in 2012. :lol

I still can't actually believe he's on the Royals. I mean, people have been joking about that for years.

 

[Y2Kev]

I still can't actually believe he's on the Royals. I mean, people have been joking about that for years.

Dreams can come true when you just believe.

 

[tim1138]

Having extended Bruce and Arroyo, the Reds are now in talks to do the same with Johnny Cueto. I don't know why Jocketty even went to the winter meetings when he said all along his big concerns are in locking up the young core of the roster and not making any major moves.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

It will be amazing when neither the Yankees or Red Sox win the World Series next year

a man can dream can't he

Chances of winning the WS are always slim, technically. Soo no, not that amazing. Yankees or Sox not making it to the postseason, though... yeah, you better leave that to dreamland.

 

[Guileless]

1) Cowboys
2) College Football
3) Mavericks
4) High School Football
5) Peewee Football
6) Rangers
.
.
.
99) Stars

One of my friends from college lives in Dallas now, and he absolutely loathes the Cowboys because he says you cannot get away from people talking about them 365 days a year. He said people would rather watch Cowboys training camp than actual baseball or hockey games.

I went to Dallas in '03 for the Cotton Bowl and lucked my way into a luxury box at a Mavs game. Everybody in there was watching the Cowboys playoff game on a TV and ignoring the basketball game. Granted in was an early January game against the T-Wolves, but still. I think it was the Romo botched field goal game.

 

[CygnusXS]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/interview-john-coppolella-of-the-braves/

John Coppolella: I help out [General Manager] Frank Wren and [Assistant General Manager] Bruce Manno. I help them by executing our depth charts, prospect lists, arbitration cases and our statistical analysis. When we break down players, we will use stuff that we find on sites like FanGraphs sometimes. We were in the room a few days back, and we were sorting guys by UZR/150. There’s probably about 10 or 15 we will take from your site, five or 10 from here, from there. We’re always trying to find new information.

Eno Sarris: That’s interesting. I was going to ask you about how aware you are of the stuff that is out there. In particular, valuing defense – there’s a lot of work being done right now trying to figure out how far we’ve gotten with defensive statistics. How do you feel about defensive statistics – do you have any advice for those that are working on defensive numbers?

John Coppolella: I still think the best way to evaluate defense is through the eyes of a scout. I say that because a scout can see where the defender starts, where he finishes, what kind of break he gets, and what sort of closing speed he has. When we look at the stats, like UZR/150 or other zone ratings, or Bill James’ +/-, there’s about seven or eight different stats that all offer something. It’s about trying to find some kind of blend, some merge that you can feel good about. If you can match that up with what your scouts think, and all of that kind of gels, then you’re onto something. If it’s all jumbled up, then, probably, at least for the Braves, we are going to go with our scouts.

I would say that this article was mindblowing but I always suspected the team was more sabr oriented than we thought.

 

[Sharp]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/interview-john-coppolella-of-the-braves/


I would say that this article was mindblowing but I always suspected the team was more sabr oriented than we thought.

All GMs (except maybe Jim Hendry) use a ton of SABR-oriented stuff at this point. They're not stupid. Their statements to the public have nothing to do with the comparisons they're doing behind the scenes. They also have access to stats and data that we don't (particularly HitFX stuff).

 

[Windu]

yeah they usually don't really talk about it much because of not wanting to give away their 'trade secrets'. And I kinda figured the braves used stats a lot in conjunction with scouting, this is the first real confirmation of it though.