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[SpaceWolf]

Trump campaign:

 

[benjipwns]

Reagan's 1984 landslide by state:

By Congressional District:

By County:

Nixon's 1972 by County:

 

[Arkeband]

Did the OP really need a cross section of a comments section?

 

[Mr. Giggles]

My favourite

Parker Steps · Chicago, Illinois
Yes yes, easy victory you can tell by the enthusiasm of her rallies....oh wait

 

[Wafflecakes]

Elaborate please. I saw that she lost some momentum on 538's map.

 

[lostsupper]

You heard it here, folks. You're free to vote your conscience in November.

 

[Give War A Chance]

I'll believe it when I see it. I don't doubt it, but things can change, certainly.

 

[FunkyMunkey]

the last 8 years have revealed more racist pieces of shit in our country, can't wait to see how many misogynistic bigots come out of the woodwork for this president. it's already happening (stay mad)

 

[Wafflecakes]

What do you mean, "joke post"?

Downward trend is clearly visible.



Also, 2 weeks ago, 538 had her chances at 90%. She is now down to 75%.

You do realize that the image you JUST posted disagrees with you right?

 

[Bronx-Man]

Pretty sure I posted a year ago that she was gonna win in the biggest landslide since Reagan. Thank god Trump's the GOP nominee.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

I'll believe it when I see it. I don't doubt it, but things can change, certainly.

I can't imagine Trump not doing terribly in the debates, so if anything, it will get worse for him, and we haven't seen the effect his latest disgusting immigration speech will have on the polls.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

The Clinton campaign needs to continue to act as if Trump is winning in a landslide. They can't get lazy. They have the momentum for sure, but they can't just ride on it. Hillary might still win in the end if they do that, but if they are active then her chance of success will be far, far greater.

Also, this ad showed up for this thread, lmao

I would click that ad

 

[SexyFish]

You do realize that the image you JUST posted disagrees with you right?

The image is from The Upshot by NYTimes, not 538.

 

[Abstrusity]

You heard it here, folks. You're free to vote your conscience in November.

A wall street shill, a libertarian, a racist rotting orange, and the quintessential antivaxxer!

Welp, guess the Hilldawg is getting my vote.

 

[Neoweee]

You heard it here, folks. You're free to vote your conscience in November.

Honestly, liberals deserve to lose over their shitty premature victory laps. Both Stein and Johnson are pulling more from Clinton than they are from Trump.

 

[benjipwns]

I always liked the 1920, 1924, 1928, 1932 and 1936 landslide maps. Five straight non-competitive elections.

With 95+% of South Carolina voting D.

 

[Gutek]

You do realize that the image you JUST posted disagrees with you right?

The one were Clinton's numbers are going down while Trump's are going up?

 

[Grizzlyjin]

Honestly, liberals deserve to lose over their shitty premature victory laps. Both Stein and Johnson are pulling more from Clinton than they are from Trump.

What victory laps? August was a huge fundraising month and Clinton's ground game has been busting their butts for awhile. Trump barely had anything setup a month ago.

 

[shamanick]

Fivethirtyeight has a good article about the recent polls here

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

What victory laps? August was a huge fundraising month and Clinton's ground game has been busting their butts for awhile. Trump barely had anything setup a month ago.

He also just gave a terrible immigration speech that put an end to that "pivot" nonsense, is over his head in the upcoming debates, and Obama/Bernie/Michelle gonna hit the campaign trail.

 

[Neoweee]

What victory laps? August was a huge fundraising month and Clinton's ground game has been busting their butts for awhile. Trump barely had anything setup a month ago.

It's easy to lie with fundraising & staffing numbers. How much does it matter what he raises, vs what the RNC raises, vs what third-party advocacy groups raise (the NRA), vs untracked money from Super PACS? Trump might not have a ground game, but the RNC does, and I don't think it makes much of a difference who is running the GOTV systems.

Clinton will probably win, but it's a single-digit race with two third-parties drawing from her base, and the Republicans remain the party of billionaires.

 

[Aaronology]

Honestly, liberals deserve to lose over their shitty premature victory laps.

I have yet to see any one celebrating Clinton's victory as if this election were a done deal. Pouring over polling data and accurately assessing Hillary's chances is not engaging in a "shitty premature victory lap."

Both Stein and Johnson are pulling more from Clinton than they are from Trump.

Ok. How is this relevant?

 

[shamanick]

It's easy to lie with fundraising & staffing numbers. How much does it matter what he raises, vs what the RNC raises, vs what third-party advocacy groups raise (the NRA), vs untracked money from Super PACS? Trump might not have a ground game, but the RNC does, and I don't think it makes much of a difference who is running the GOTV systems.

Clinton will probably win, but it's a single-digit race with two third-parties drawing from her base, and the Republicans remain the party of billionaires.

It's also going to be interesting to see if all of the republicans endorsing Clinton now will have pull after she wins

 

[benjipwns]

It's also going to be interesting to see if all of the republicans endorsing Clinton now will have pull after she wins

Which of them had any pull to begin with?

 

[BobTheFork]

How about we tell her to prepare for the 10% of the country that's going to pick up a gun on election day because they are stupid enough to thin the election was rigged, or more likely don't care because they would rather kill someone them accept they don't line in the 1800's

 

[Grizzlyjin]

It's easy to lie with fundraising & staffing numbers. How much does it matter what he raises, vs what the RNC raises, vs what third-party advocacy groups raise (the NRA), vs untracked money from Super PACS? Trump might not have a ground game, but the RNC does, and I don't think it makes much of a difference who is running the GOTV systems.

Clinton will probably win, but it's a single-digit race with two third-parties drawing from her base, and the Republicans remain the party of billionaires.

Ummmm...ok...you didn't answer my question. How is looking at polling data a victory lap? The Clinton campaign buying ads early and even moving into states that they traditionally wouldn't have fought in is literally the exact opposite of a victory lap.

 

[Neoweee]

It's also going to be interesting to see if all of the republicans endorsing Clinton now will have pull after she wins

That's actually a really interesting point. Their solace could be that Clinton is much closer to mainstream, acceptable policies than Trump, so it's impossible for their pet issues to get any worse under Hillary.

The waves so far:
- EPA
- Military
- National Security
- Econ

Ummmm...ok...you didn't answer my question. How is looking at polling data a victory lap? The Clinton campaign buying ads early and even moving into states that they traditionally wouldn't have fought in is literally the exact opposite of a victory lap.

GAF is filled with people that believe a landslide is imminent, like this entire thread. It is wildly disproportionate to the 70-85% chance of winning that she realistically has right now. People shouldn't read this much into campaign strategy.

Sorry, I'm just scared after the apparent surge in 3rd party support over the last few weeks which has mostly been at Hillary's expense. If people get complacent or buy into the revolving door of Clinton scandals, enough people could jump ship to make this close. Too many of my friends are still in the smoldering wreck of the Bernie-or-bust group.

 

[Hagi]

I need this. I need this so bad. These debates are going to be hilarious

I expect some soul stealing moments. It's also going to be painstakingly clear for the millionth time how out of his depth he really is. He could barely string intelligible sentences together in the republican debates and he had like 50 like minded assholes to bounce off with. He's going to crater against Clinton.

 

[SlimySnake]

Democratic Party was in shambles at the time.

well that and they had nominated their Bernie Sanders of the time.

 

[thecouncil]

 

[shamanick]

Which of them had any pull to begin with?

Not saying that they do now? I'm talking about after the election

I expect some soul stealing moments. It's also going to be painstakingly clear for the millionth time how out of his depth he really is. He could barely string intelligible sentences together in the republican debates and he had like 50 like minded assholes to bounce off with. He's going to crater against Clinton.

I wouldn't be so sure. In 2008 we were all salivating for the Biden-Palin debate but she benefited from rock-bottom expectations and there were just as many people saying that she won because she didn't completely embarrass herself.

 

[benjipwns]

Not saying that they do now? I'm talking about after the election

Why would these nobody's, abject failures (Paulson) and 90 year olds have pull after the election where they endorsed the other party's candidate?

 

[Neoweee]

I wouldn't be so sure. In 2008 we were all salivating for the Biden-Palin debate but she benefited from rock-bottom expectations and there were just as many people saying that she won because she didn't completely embarrass herself.

Yeah, people really underestimate how important expectations are for debates. The Clinton campaign is trying to raise expectations for Trump, but I don't think it will work. Him showing up and not being a grade-A prick will be viewed as a victory.

 

[Par Score]

GAF is filled with people that believe a landslide is imminent, like this entire thread. It is wildly disproportionate to the 70-85% chance of winning that she realistically has right now. People shouldn't read this much into campaign strategy.

Acknowledging reality is not doing victory laps. As things stand today, based on the best information available, Clinton looks like she's walking it.

Can things change? Sure. But that's only so valuable when making predictions. Any reasonable prediction right now would give Clinton a greater chance of winning a landslide than Trump winning at all, and would you look at that, all the reasonable predictors do.

Sorry, I'm just scared after the apparent surge in 3rd party support over the last few weeks which has mostly been at Hillary's expense. If people get complacent or buy into the revolving door of Clinton scandals, enough people could jump ship to make this close. Too many of my friends are still in the smoldering wreck of the Bernie-or-bust group.

3rd parties aren't surging, they're not even going to make the debates, and then they'll drop off just like most other elections. We're not in Ross Perot territory, not even close.

The Bernie or Bust people were by and large barely Democrats to begin with, and there aren't enough of them to make any meaningful difference.

 

[Nakazato]

N rigging Huh

 

[totowhoa]

You do realize that the image you JUST posted disagrees with you right?

What in the world have you been smoking in this thread?? Just make a damn point instead of being cagey and asking questions. It reads like you think you're too intelligent to bother with engaging another poster lol

 

[benjipwns]

N rigging Huh

finally, i thought i was the only one

 

[NikonShots]

How about we tell her to prepare for the 10% of the country that's going to pick up a gun on election day because they are stupid enough to thin the election was rigged, or more likely don't care because they would rather kill someone them accept they don't line in the 1800's

That's not going to happen, you know that right? I don't know who feared you into thinking that but you should probably stop talking to them.

 

[studyguy]

N rigging Huh

Listen they clearly meant NEW RIGGING, come on you really think someone would do that? Allude to awful racial slurs online???

 

[shamanick]

Listen they clearly meant NEW RIGGING, come on you really think someone would do that? Allude to awful racial slurs online???

You really think that n rigging is an obscure allusion to a racial slur and not a typo? Seems like a bit of a stretch to me.

 

[studyguy]

You really think that n rigging is an obscure allusion to a racial slur and not a typo? Seems like a bit of a stretch to me.

Spoiler

Was sarcasm

 

[Chezzymann]

There is also election night tears, that was an amusing thing in 2012.

Cant wait to shitpost on trump forums saying "silent majority my ass"

 

[pigeon]

Her favorables rating is about the same as a runaway freight train, too!

This was pretty funny.

 

[Mudcrab]

Clinton officials are also worried about projecting too much confidence when 64 percent of voters think the country is moving in the wrong direction and the candidate is intensely disliked; projecting a commanding position could negatively affect Democratic turnout needed to guarantee a win.

This is the only thing that worries me, can't let up!

 

[Wafflecakes]

What in the world have you been smoking in this thread?? Just make a damn point instead of being cagey and asking questions. It reads like you think you're too intelligent to bother with engaging another poster lol

I teach government and elections for a living. I am not going to pretend that someone has a legitimate point when they cherry pick data that fits the narrative they have created in their heads.

 

[demosthenes]

No, do not prep for winning. Bury trump and everything he stands for. Do not relent.

 

[BobTheFork]

That's not going to happen, you know that right? I don't know who feared you into thinking that but you should probably stop talking to them.

Angry, armed un-educated people that think they are being backed into a corner...They don't SAY they are being backed into a corner, they THINK they are being backed into a corner. They will only stand around screaming and swearing while holding a gun for so long. Eventually many people will stop screaming and swearing, but they'll still be holding a gun.

It's commendable that you think that you think threats are only threats and will never be more than threats, it really is.

 

[rokkerkory]

Will be done after the debates

 

[shamanick]

I teach government and elections for a living. I am not going to pretend that someone has a legitimate point when they cherry pick data that fits the narrative they have created in their heads.

I think you're the one reading the chart wrong, it clearly shows that Clinton is trending downward and the reverse for Trump.

 

[gutter_trash]

she still has the Obama October card in her sleeve