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[bafflewaffle]

So you're going to argue that people are going to ignore all the casual games which do use the touchscreen a lot (such as Nintendogs + cats), and solely look at games like MGS3? Yeah, right.

no I do not agree, they have to woo casuals, make them be a priority. isnt that why someare saying natale and sonywand will fail, because it is a secondary thing to them

ac and ndogs is not much, how about new casual games, no cooking mama, no brain age, no style fashion, no imagine, etc

nintendo used to take casual people into the private bungalo, play some r kelly, scented candle, and do it right, devoted half of e3 for them... now it is like they throw some rotted flowers on the floor and point to d*ck, they are taking them for granted

again, n gave up on casual (huge profit) because they realized apple is too strong, and cannot fight them

 

[swerve]

Isn't it more likely - especially as they said this explicitly - that they were looking for a way to get as much gamer attention out of E3 as possible?

They realised that their previous few E3 showings were not having the same impact as they wanted (and last year Iwata even mentioned that the unveil of the black wii AFTER E3 got more gamer buzz than New Super Mario Bros etc).

So this year, it was a show for us. But there will be plenty to make the 3DS appeal to everyone. The camera, and Nintendogs, and Animal Crossing, and no doubt a host of Touch Generation updates.

 

[gerg]

Isn't it more likely - especially as they said this explicitly - that they were looking for a way to get as much gamer attention out of E3 as possible?

Of course not! Don't be silly! Games like Cooking Mama, Brain Training and other casual games are never coming to the 3DS, and sequels to 20+ million and 10+ million-selling games will do nothing to woo casual gamers.

lol how stupid of you

 

[Jokeropia]

So they have market and mindshare of people who don't buy lots of video games, great, tell me again why they can be depended on to buy the next console when they're already pleased with Wii Sports graphics and pull it out every 4 months?

You may not to be aware of this, but the average Wii, 360 and PS3 owners all buy games at very similar rates.

 

[Vinci]

Of course not! Don't be silly! Games like Cooking Mama, Brain Training and other casual games are never coming to the 3DS, and sequels to 20+ million and 10+ million-selling games will do nothing to woo casual gamers.

lol how stupid of you

To be fair, nothing Nintendo has shown or announced for 3DS is an Expanded Audience title in the sense that Nintendogs was this generation.

 

[1-D_FTW]

Put me in the camp that will bet large amounts of money on DQX being on 3DS. It's not coming any time soon and 3DS is the most logical place.

Why it being switched to Wii 2 isn't even a possibility in this equation is beyond me...

They've already said E3 was too amped a venue to unveil at. Some of the posters here have always over thought what this was going to be. It was never Wiimote 2. It's a stress reducing biofeedback "game" that can be marketed on Oprah and Dr. Oz. If done right, it could be huge. But it's just a single product.

 

[1-D_FTW]

no I do not agree, they have to woo casuals, make them be a priority. isnt that why someare saying natale and sonywand will fail, because it is a secondary thing to them

ac and ndogs is not much, how about new casual games, no cooking mama, no brain age, no style fashion, no imagine, etc

nintendo used to take casual people into the private bungalo, play some r kelly, scented candle, and do it right, devoted half of e3 for them... now it is like they throw some rotted flowers on the floor and point to d*ck, they are taking them for granted

again, n gave up on casual (huge profit) because they realized apple is too strong, and cannot fight them

Umm, you do realize Apple isn't very big in Japan. Everything Nintendo does is in reaction to the Japanese market. If they were truly worried about Apple stealing that market, it's all the more reason to continue focusing on the casual market. Prevent Apple from ever getting a foothold in the territory.

EDIT: Sorry for the DP, but the server is really dogging and didn't want to wait for extra clicks.

 

[DarciisFyer]

"Birdmen and the Casual Fallacy"

So, this article was written in early 2008 about Nintendo's business strategy going forward with the Wii. In the aftermath of the Nintendo E3 press conference, where you really get a sense of where Nintendo is planning to leverage its resources in the near future, the article almost seems prophetic.

This image, for example, seems to sum up why Nintendo casual games succeed while third-party attempts fail:

This article was actually referred to in a thread on this forum when it came out over two years ago, and had mostly mixed reactions ranging from "100% agree" to "author is blatant nintendo fanboy". I wonder if anyone's viewpoints changed over the years considering the flow of the game industry and, particularly, after this year's E3 showing.

 

[GitarooMan]

"Birdmen and the Casual Fallacy"

You're not seriously bringing malstrom stuff in this thread, right?

 

[freddy]

This article was actually referred to in a thread on this forum when it came out over two years ago, and had mostly mixed reactions ranging from "100% agree" to "author is blatant nintendo fanboy". I wonder if anyone's viewpoints changed over the years considering the flow of the game industry and, particularly, after this year's E3 showing.

Didn't he end up with a raging hate boner for Nintendo at some stage?

 

[Vinci]

Don't bring Malstrom up on GAF. There's a massive amount of hate for him and his views on this board. I personally agree and disagree with him on a variety of issues, so I don't get the hate all that much - but yeah, it's best just to not speak of him.

 

[Boney]

The Birdman article was good, but then he snapped and went crazy.

 

[Vinci]

The Birdman article was good, but then he snapped and went crazy.

Some of his other articles are good as well, but yeah, he takes it to a level that is unnecessary most of the time.

 

[gerg]

I think that the problem with Malstrom is as much the way he writes than anything else.

Actually, scratch that. I mean, what the fuck?

This article shows that the biggest threat to Nintendo is the Wii and why the Wii must be destroyed (else it bankrupt the company). The article goes on to why there will never be a Wii 2, why the Wii will have a longer lifespan than the PS3 (and the PS2), and what exactly Nintendo’s next console will be. (Hint: It will be disruptive.)

 

[bafflewaffle]

Isn't it more likely - especially as they said this explicitly - that they were looking for a way to get as much gamer attention out of E3 as possible?

They realised that their previous few E3 showings were not having the same impact as they wanted (and last year Iwata even mentioned that the unveil of the black wii AFTER E3 got more gamer buzz than New Super Mario Bros etc).

So this year, it was a show for us. But there will be plenty to make the 3DS appeal to everyone. The camera, and Nintendogs, and Animal Crossing, and no doubt a host of Touch Generation updates.

could be, but 3ds, its whole design is more hc imo, it is why gaf is hyped. and will not by as easy to sell $20 brain age after iphone

Umm, you do realize Apple isn't very big in Japan. Everything Nintendo does is in reaction to the Japanese market. If they were truly worried about Apple stealing that market, it's all the more reason to continue focusing on the casual market. Prevent Apple from ever getting a foothold in the territory.

EDIT: Sorry for the DP, but the server is really dogging and didn't want to wait for extra clicks.

ok, but they have other hitech phones that play games

ds could be extrapolated how it was designed for japan and trends of society, etc . but 3ds is more like an inelegant try to get ds and psp crowd all for itself. sony is absent so probably it will succeed by default

To be fair, nothing Nintendo has shown or announced for 3DS is an Expanded Audience title in the sense that Nintendogs was this generation.

agree, it is what I am saying

 

[Tim the Wiz]

To be fair, nothing Nintendo has shown or announced for 3DS is an Expanded Audience title in the sense that Nintendogs was this generation.

Apart from Nintendogs + cats? Help me out here.

 

[gerg]

agree, it is what I am saying

The only metric by which that would be true is in terms of expanding the current audience, which was always going to be the case considering how much Nintendo did so in the past generation.

That does not mean that nintendogs + cats won't appeal to the expanded audience to the same degree as its predecessor, however.

 

[Mohonky]

What happens if blue and red mix together?

I see their strategy and it's a very good idea, they effectively put themselves in their own market. While MS and Sony go toe to toe, they essentially come in midway through which gives them a tech edge while remaining cost effective. It's a good idea really. When the other consoles leap them technically, Nintendo will be at a much lower price point keeping them in the market for mass consumers.

I think it's a good idea as a gamer, it means updated tech half way between console gens and will keep the ball rolling, rather than 5-7 yrs of the last 3 or 4 of which will be rather ancient by tecnology standards, we have new tech every 2.5yrs or so.

 

[manueldelalas]

I don't agree with this whole DQX for 3DS, and I think that way of thinking is just wrong.

We've never seen a DQ game being released at the beginning or near it of a console launch; and if the last years teaches us anything, is that DQ games go to platforms that are successful and not to platforms they think will be successful. I would agree on DQXI on 3DS.

DQ4 was released just before the SNES was released, DQVI was released after the PS1 was released and just before the N64 was released, DQVII was released after the PS2 was released, and DQVIII was released in the later part of the PS2 life (well it is immortal, but you get the point). DQIX was released in the middle of the DS life. The only weird one is DQV that was released "only" two years after the SNES Launch.

To sum all this, it is not strange that a DQ game is released at the end of a console's life. If anything happens, I would think it would be trying to release it as a Wii exclusive near the launch of the Wii successor, with some of the new console specific content, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I don't think it will be released on 3DS, I think DQXI will be that game.

 

[Dedication Through Light]

I dont know why Nintendo would just rush out the gate with the next Wii so fast, lol. Wii hasnt even broke the 149.99 mark, lol. Not to mention they just launched their supplement to an improved controller system (Wii Motion Plus).

Their sales seem to show they can easily make money with their own first party titles, and if they can release more iterations of these at least through 2012, launch the next console in 2013, to ride the Wii out just a tad bit longer.

Plus Nintendo probably at least figures that the Microsoft and Sony wouldnt show their next iterations until 2012 of the home consoles, and third parties seem to express some sentiment towards going to the next gen still (if thats at all still accurate).

 

[camineet]

I believe next-gen Nintendo console will come in 2012.

 

[schuelma]

I'm 99% sure this was posted here or elsewhere, but I thought this Iwata quote from the last few days was interesting:

"When we first launched the DS and the Wii, very few people thought that we would have the success that we have had so far. Because of that, Nintendo had no choice but to try to create that market for those two platforms ourselves," he said.

"So when that time comes (for us to release a new platform) and we are able to garner third-party support coupled with our own properties, we will be able to create a very healthy environment for that platform."

Obviously, talk is just talk and Iwata has been talking about 3rd party support for the Wii in every IR the past few years..but I do think this quote along with the 3DS lineup supports the idea that Nintendo is going to try harder to get 3rd parties on board right from the start and they want to make sure there is good support before announcing the next console.

 

[Vizion28]

I dont know why Nintendo would just rush out the gate with the next Wii so fast, lol. Wii hasnt even broke the 149.99 mark, lol. Not to mention they just launched their supplement to an improved controller system (Wii Motion Plus).

Their sales seem to show they can easily make money with their own first party titles, and if they can release more iterations of these at least through 2012, launch the next console in 2013, to ride the Wii out just a tad bit longer.

Plus Nintendo probably at least figures that the Microsoft and Sony wouldnt show their next iterations until 2012 of the home consoles, and third parties seem to express some sentiment towards going to the next gen still (if thats at all still accurate).

I agree excpet I doubt 3rd parties are in a hurry to develop for next gen soon with even higher development cost.

Also I don't think the next Wii will simply have better online, graphics, and refined controls. It has to be revolutionary to differentiate itself from its competitors who have copied Nintendo. Iwata knows this, he is a very smart man. In fact he has stated this.

What ever revolutionary idea Nintendo is brewing to get Wii owners to upgrade is going to Wow and surprise us. Games that knows your thoughts? Virtual Reality? I don't know. It will be interesting.

 

[Kai Dracon]

The Birdman article was good, but then he snapped and went crazy.

Whoever "Malstrom" really is, he literally stated on his blog one time that it's a character with a writing style designed to piss people off. Essentially his tactic is to troll hardcore gamers with, as he sees it, facts, then see if anyone will take the bait and dismiss the facts and/or logical arguments because they don't like the style of presentation.

Much of GAF tho, and other sites that go insane when someone links to his blog, never seem able to figure out it's a character trying to goad them.

 

[Drinky Crow]

why would anyone on this forum care about disgusting casuals

 

[Fourth Storm]

I think if anything can be garnered from the 3DS reveal it is that the Wii 2 will come like a thief in the night, with a one year at most warning, and not too late that the Wii becomes completely dry. It will be somewhat more powerful than PS360, but not overwhelmingly so, and it will refine the control scheme, not revolutionize it.

I do believe, however, that like the autostereoscopic 3D of 3DS, there will be one major feature to differentiate it from the rest and make it a "must have" item. I don't know what this will be, but I expect them to keep the interface familiar to Wii owners. Perhaps some type of haptic feedback. I expect some kind of major social networking features as well, as Iwata stated they were working on some deals which would be announced in the next 1 to 2 years.

I also believe that Nintendo should upgrade the Wii's online/DD system before the launch of the Wii2 in order to give current owners a "taste" of what they have to look forward to on the new system. Much like Xbox Live started on the original Xbox, Nintendo will need some time to work the kinks out of their service. It's not going to be instantly awesome once they launch the Wii's successor. This could also help to build some 3rd party support for launch.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

I think if anything can be garnered from the 3DS reveal it is that the Wii 2 will come like a thief in the night, with a one year at most warning, and not too late that the Wii becomes completely dry. It will be somewhat more powerful than PS360, but not overwhelmingly so, and it will refine the control scheme, not revolutionize it.

I do believe, however, that like the autostereoscopic 3D of 3DS, there will be one major feature to differentiate it from the rest and make it a "must have" item. I don't know what this will be, but I expect them to keep the interface familiar to Wii owners. Perhaps some type of haptic feedback. I expect some kind of major social networking features as well, as Iwata stated they were working on some deals which would be announced in the next 1 to 2 years.

I also believe that Nintendo should upgrade the Wii's online/DD system before the launch of the Wii2 in order to give current owners a "taste" of what they have to look forward to on the new system. Much like Xbox Live started on the original Xbox, Nintendo will need some time to work the kinks out of their service. It's not going to be instantly awesome once they launch the Wii's successor. This could also help to build some 3rd party support for launch.

Spot on in the first paragraph. Second paragraph is kind of nebulous. I like the idea that they'll do something new and cool and unique, but they are unfortunately limited by the technology available to them. As for the 3rd paragraph, I think you're wrong. Any upgrade to online has to be done on a game by game basis, and at best we'll see new features come as part of the standard Wii library that's compiled into every game - like the home button is programmed in now. To do what MS does with the 360's online capability, you need to be able to keep online libraries running constantly in the background.

 

[Vizion28]

With the uber success of Wii I am more inclined to believe 2012 will be the earliest for the next Wii. The Wii is in fact en route to surpass the PS2 in sales. Why would Nintendo cut off the Wii prematurely with such high sales rate?

According to Reggie “But after last year’s record holiday, Wii has now outsold the PS2 by nearly five million systems at the same point in its life cycle.”

Sorry guys, no Super Wii for 2011 or perhaps even 2012.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

With the uber success of Wii I am more inclined to believe 2012 will be the earliest for the next Wii. The Wii is in fact en route to surpass the PS2 in sales. Why would Nintendo cut off the Wii prematurely with such high sales rate?

http://gamerant.com/wp-content/uploads/Wii-Sales-Data.jpg[IMG]

[IMG]http://gamerant.com/wp-content/uploads/Wii-Sales-Last-6-Months.jpg[IMG]

According to Reggie “But after last year’s record holiday, Wii has now outsold the PS2 by nearly five million systems at the same point in its life cycle.”

Sorry guys, no Super Wii for 2011 or perhaps even 2012.[/QUOTE]
An early jump on the competition and a now inevitable heavy 3rd party presence are damn good reasons to get a head start on the competition. What Nintendo really needs to gauge is how likely Sony or Microsoft is to launch a new system, and beat them to the punch.

 

[AdventureRacing]

agree, it is what I am saying

I think the problem with your argument is that you seem to assume that the only game that appeals to the wii sports or nintendogs crowd is more wii sports and nintendogs.

My GF basically started gaming with the DS and wii, her favourite games are now zelda TP and NSMB. Yes she still wants games like nintendogs however games outside of this still appeal to her.

Now she already wants a a 3DS so she can get kid icarus (i showed her some of the games at E3).

She is only one example but it seems to hold true for so many of the people i know who GAF would call casual. They only really got into gaming this gen because of the wii and now their favorite games are the likes of NSMBwii and MKwii.

Nintendo doesn't need as many so called 'casual' games this gen as they have already got that audience and they have them interested in other titles as well now.

 

[Branduil]

With the uber success of Wii I am more inclined to believe 2012 will be the earliest for the next Wii. The Wii is in fact en route to surpass the PS2 in sales. Why would Nintendo cut off the Wii prematurely with such high sales rate?

According to Reggie “But after last year’s record holiday, Wii has now outsold the PS2 by nearly five million systems at the same point in its life cycle.”

Sorry guys, no Super Wii for 2011 or perhaps even 2012.

Wii sales are sluggish in Japan. They also have the motive of launching well before Sony and MS and putting out a console that appeals to both casuals and the hardcore.

 

[RagnarokX]

With the uber success of Wii I am more inclined to believe 2012 will be the earliest for the next Wii. The Wii is in fact en route to surpass the PS2 in sales. Why would Nintendo cut off the Wii prematurely with such high sales rate?

According to Reggie “But after last year’s record holiday, Wii has now outsold the PS2 by nearly five million systems at the same point in its life cycle.”

Sorry guys, no Super Wii for 2011 or perhaps even 2012.

But sales are down for Wii from last year, however minute. Wii2 wouldn't be for most people buying Wiis now; they waited 4 years to buy a Wii, so they probably won't be waiting in lines at Wii2's launch anyway. They'll probably buy a Wii2 at the same point in its cycle.

 

[AdventureRacing]

With the uber success of Wii I am more inclined to believe 2012 will be the earliest for the next Wii. The Wii is in fact en route to surpass the PS2 in sales. Why would Nintendo cut off the Wii prematurely with such high sales rate?

According to Reggie “But after last year’s record holiday, Wii has now outsold the PS2 by nearly five million systems at the same point in its life cycle.”

Sorry guys, no Super Wii for 2011 or perhaps even 2012.

Why not try this same thing with the DS?

The DS is selling better than the wii in both Japan and the US and has far better 3rd party support. The DS has also pretty much crushed it's competition. So if nintendo uses your logic why is the 3DS coming this year?

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

I'm going to blockquote, but I'm not picking on you dude, you just seem to be summarising most of the 'nintendo won't make a WiiHD' in a couple of posts:

I agree excpet I doubt 3rd parties are in a hurry to develop for next gen soon with even higher development cost.

The thing is though, a Wii2HD wouldn't need to be a Xbox->Xbox 360 leap (or PS2 -> PS3 leap) to reap benefits. It just has to be better than the PS3 and X360.

From a developers point of view, all the expense of making a game is already done in the 360 and PS3 versions; they have their engines, their assets and their marketing budget already done, they are already working to the limitations of the lowest powered target platform (which in terms of available disk space is the 360 and in terms of RAM is the PS3).

If a more powerful third console by Nintendo is released, not only can they lazy-port it to get platform parity (as they won't have to be doing performance tweaks to get the most of it as multiplatform games seem to show PS3 development requires) but they can also actually improve the game to make 'superior versions' depending on how much more powerful the WiiHD is.

At the moment, 1080p 60FPS gameplay is rare to see, not a standard.

A more powerful platform makes achieving that more likely, even without getting into pixel-counting and tearing analysis.

If you look at the number of threads dedicated to pixel counting for 'superior version' of games, I think it's pretty clear that a more powerful console competitor would attract sales, particularly to the people who care about these things in their games.

Also I don't think the next Wii will simply have better online, graphics, and refined controls. It has to be revolutionary to differentiate itself from its competitors who have copied Nintendo.

But genuine innovation isn't easy to do, and it isn't a safe option.

In retrospect, the DS and the Wii are 'obvious' successes, but in reality people were highly sceptical of what they could possibly offer over more powerful competition and a lot of people were certain they were going to flop.

The DS in particular wasn't even assure by Nintendo - they repeatedly referred to it as a 'third pillar' alongside the Gameboy brand rather than backing it to the hilt from day one.

In addition, developers 'getting' new and innovative mechanics from new and innovative hardware is not assured - there was a software drought for the DS very shortly after release that consisted for some time, and the Wii is still mostly neglected by third parties because it costs a lot of time and money prototyping 'new' - much more time and money than it costs 'iterating' things that have been successful before.

It would make sound business sense for Nintendo to announce a WiiHD 2011 for release in 2012 for a number of reasons;
- early start advantage (the primary motivator for 360s current success)
- a matured control scheme with developers poised to utilise (Sony actually will be helping with this, as any pushing they do for Move would indirectly give third party developers understanding of using a Wiimote+ control scheme)
- 'new buzz'; the reason wiimotes weren't an addon for the gamecube. It seems pretty clear that 'Wii' as a brand has established itself, and it seems pretty clear that to the 'hardcore' that brand is not necessarily one they want to embrace. A new console that gets to reinvent itself (both to 'the hardcore' and to publishers / developers) get's the best of both worlds to be honest.

The Wii is in fact en route to surpass the PS2 in sales. Why would Nintendo cut off the Wii prematurely with such high sales rate?

Console growth is never entirely linear, it's closer to a bell curve where the majority of sales occur in the 'boom' period then start tapering off without hardware revision assistance. All the manufacturers know this, which is why you're seeing the PS3 slim / X360 slim now and the Move / Kinect hardware extensions this christmas.

Nintendo want to do something to refresh that curve within the next few years, and have limited options.

A 'slim' Wii? Seems unnecessary when you look at a Wii to me, I'm not sure what could be slimmed down about it.

 

[gerg]

It all depends on the Vitality Sensor. If that device makes it out this year, then I expect a Wii2 in 2012. If that device is quietly shelved for a while, then I expect to see a new console late next year. I don't think that Wii sales can sustain themselves without such a device.

 

[DrGAKMAN]

Lack of HD, competent online, (non-existant) "core games" and proper 3RD party support didn't kill Wii in 2006. Nor in 2007 or 2008. Not killing it in 2009 or 2010 so far either. So why do they need a Super Wii 2 HD in 2011 or even 2012? Especially since the competition is still reeling from the initial blows and only just now reacting with half-assed add-on's that raise the prices when they should be lowering their prices?

Oh I see, 'cos they're making 3DS even though the DS is still doing so well?

Have you ever thought that Nintendo might be deliberatly going for PS3's juggular by attacking it's expensive 3DTV "ace-in-the-hole" approach with a more effective glasses-less approach? Purposely lowballing on the DS/Wii visuals to the point that everyone thinks they're a graphically feeble company then BLINDSIDING the competition (yet again) by raising the bar with a visually stunning 3DS? Disrupting the PS3 a second time without ever having to bring out a new Wii while, at the same time, sustaining their handheld dominance.

Why did they wait 'til now to show off this new 3DS, it has probably been ready for a while now? Now, the same year Sony was set to focus on 3D as well? It's so obviously deliberate it's beyond cunning. And again, all without ever needing to make a Wii HD to do it.

Nintendo won't need to say anything about the Wii's successor until Sony (and to a lesser extent, Microsoft) start talking about their next successor(s). Wii is the standerd now, just as the NES was in it's day despite the resistance "the industry" cries for...I think it's gonna be a while before Sony/Microsoft get a true return on their investment from this generation and Nintendo cooks up the next revolution. I think Iwata is pulling our chains with the 3DTV 30% penetration remark, or maybe not, or maybe the next revolution will be a console/portable hybrid, or something involving holographic projection? Only Nintendo knows.

 

[Vagabundo]

Iwata is Tokugawa reincarnate - a master strategist....

 

[schuelma]

It all depends on the Vitality Sensor. If that device makes it out this year, then I expect a Wii2 in 2012. If that device is quietly shelved for a while, then I expect to see a new console late next year. I don't think that Wii sales can sustain themselves without such a device.

Ehh..I don't think the device is something along the lines of the balance board/Wii Fit that can revive Wii sales. I do think that if it isn't out this year it means a new Wii in 2011 is a lock, but even if it does make it out I don't think it means that much. At best its something that could catch on in Japan. I don't think Nintendo has much confidence it will do much in the U.S or it would have been at E3.

Lack of HD, competent online, (non-existant) "core games" and proper 3RD party support didn't kill Wii in 2006. Nor in 2007 or 2008. Not killing it in 2009 or 2010 so far either. So why do they need a Super Wii 2 HD in 2011 or even 2012? Especially since the competition is still reeling from the initial blows and only just now reacting with half-assed add-on's that raise the prices when they should be lowering their prices?

Hardware sales are still healthy, yes, but I think they are clearly on a downward slope. I think the #1 reason I see a Wii successor soon is the state of the console in Japan is very very unhealthy and if they let the system languish for another 2 years I think it could be very difficult to get 3rd parties on board. Do me a favor and look at the list of games that have come out for the Wii in Japan this year and what is announced so far. Aside from the fact that Nintendo themselves basically ignored the Wii for the first half of the year, the 3rd party lineup is non existent. The only notable game announced/released is going to be the Dragon Quest arcade port. I understand the argument that its done fine without 3rd party support, etc...but at some point there aren't going to be any games released for the system and the inevitable successor is going to be damaged IMO.

 

[Chittagong]

EDIT 24 June 2010 - Iwata's latest comments about 3DS basically confirm this core gamer focus theory

In the Nikkei interview, Iwata went on to suggest that the current DS and its software only caters to those who do not play games, something that he hoped to rectify with the 3DS in terms of advances in graphics and gameplay. Recognizing this shift in focus from first-party to third-party development, Iwata told Nikkei that Nintendo went to great lengths to incorporate software developers' requests when making the 3DS, and called on these developers to make games for the new system.

"These partnerships are good for both Nintendo and the software developers," Iwata said.

 

[Jintor]

If I'm reading this correctly, what Nintendo is basically doing (in a abstracted sense) is creating its own customers?

 

[gerg]

Ehh..I don't think the device is something along the lines of the balance board/Wii Fit that can revive Wii sales. I do think that if it isn't out this year it means a new Wii in 2011 is a lock, but even if it does make it out I don't think it means that much. At best its something that could catch on in Japan. I don't think Nintendo has much confidence it will do much in the U.S or it would have been at E3.

I don't think you can really draw those conclusions, considering what Iwata himself said about Nintendo's strategy regarding E3 this year.

 

[FoneBone]

Hardware sales are still healthy, yes, but I think they are clearly on a downward slope. I think the #1 reason I see a Wii successor soon is the state of the console in Japan is very very unhealthy and if they let the system languish for another 2 years I think it could be very difficult to get 3rd parties on board. Do me a favor and look at the list of games that have come out for the Wii in Japan this year and what is announced so far. Aside from the fact that Nintendo themselves basically ignored the Wii for the first half of the year, the 3rd party lineup is non existent. The only notable game announced/released is going to be the Dragon Quest arcade port. I understand the argument that its done fine without 3rd party support, etc...but at some point there aren't going to be any games released for the system and the inevitable successor is going to be damaged IMO.

Yep. Ninokuni being announced for PS3 (when I think most of us had expected a Wii version) is not a good sign.

 

[Arde5643]

If I'm reading this correctly, what Nintendo is basically doing (in a abstracted sense) is creating its own customers?

More like cultivating rather than creating.

As a poster had mentioned earlier from a personal anecdote, Ninty's goal is to attract people who don't game through casual games (Nintendogs, Wii Sports, Wii Play, etc) and then slowly build them up through bridge games (Mario Kart, NSMB) and finally make them into core gamers.

It's a tedious, long, and tough strategy that focuses much of its resources into long term goals.
Since almost any business today in general prioritizes short term goals to long term goals, it makes sense why a lot of people were blindsided by Nintendo's success and the failures of the current gen (which was actually already predicted during the last golden year of the PS2).

 

[schuelma]

I don't think you can really draw those conclusions, considering what Iwata himself said about Nintendo's strategy regarding E3 this year.

I understand what Iwata said, but I still think if they thought it was going to be big in N.A they would have found a way to showcase it. I mean, they brought up Wii Party and Just Dance 2 at the P.C. I don't think its going to be Japan only or anything, but I don't think Nintendo is counting on it as a big holiday game or they would have found a way to bring it up IMO.

 

[schuelma]

Yep. Ninokuni being announced for PS3 (when I think most of us had expected a Wii version) is not a good sign.

Yup. Either 3rd parties have dropped the Wii for the next console, or they've just dropped the Wii, period.

 

[H_Prestige]

I think Nintendo will launch a fully backward compatible, high definition capable Wii in a year or two that will use the cheapest possible components at the time and launch at $300. Whether it is equal to or slightly more powerful than ps360 is an irrelevant detail. The only point would be to get third parties on board, since with the current Wii they can't easily port their stuff over.

But after that, I think home console generations as we know them are finished. MS will never launch an xbox "720" and will continue to focus on making Kinect the next big thing. The 360 platform will simply keep evolving until MS just exits the console arena to focus on more profitable divisions.

Sony won't launch a ps4 because there is absolutely no need to and would be a huge waste of resources. They have pretty much all third parties on board already. The ps3 is already has the capabilities that the current Wii is lacking in. Graphics are already overkill and have done enough to water down game design and increase costs. No need to screw things up even further with a ps4. I think Sony will continue to revise the ps3 hardware and cut costs. The only meaningful thing the ps3 can't do is ps2 emulation, but even that can be brought back in future hardware revisions when costs come down enough.

 

[gerg]

I understand what Iwata said, but I still think if they thought it was going to be big in N.A they would have found a way to showcase it. I mean, they brought up Wii Party and Just Dance 2 at the P.C. I don't think its going to be Japan only or anything, but I don't think Nintendo is counting on it as a big holiday game or they would have found a way to bring it up IMO.

Even then, though, Just Dance 2 and Wii Party received but two videos. I don't think you can take their presentation as demonstrative of anything, when those games would demo much more well at the E3 environment than the VS ever would.

Yup. Either 3rd parties have dropped the Wii for the next console, or they've just dropped the Wii, period.

I spoke to duckroll about the move to put Ninokuni on the PS3 and he suggested that it wasn't indicative of a soured relationship with Nintendo on the part of Level 5 or anything. In a way, I think that putting Ninokuni on the PS3 makes a lot of sense, perhaps more so than putting it on the Wii.

 

[Vinci]

If I'm reading this correctly, what Nintendo is basically doing (in a abstracted sense) is creating its own customers?

That's what they've been doing since the DS, trying to break down barriers between their content and the mainstream audience through simplified hardware design and expanded audience titles (of which I'd count Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and even NSMB Wii*).

* Yes, I'm aware NSMB Wii seems like a core title; after all, it's a traditional Mario game. But when you consider that there hasn't been a 2D-style Mario game on a console for almost 20 years, it counts as software with the potential to expand the system's audience. And I think it has.

 

[TunaLover]

It all depends on the Vitality Sensor. If that device makes it out this year, then I expect a Wii2 in 2012. If that device is quietly shelved for a while, then I expect to see a new console late next year. I don't think that Wii sales can sustain themselves without such a device.

I was wondering the same thing too, Vitality Sensor is big part of keeping the expanded market rolling, but it misteriously was the big absent in E3, I couldn't be surprised if they are moving it to the next console, with software and all.

 

[schuelma]

I spoke to duckroll about the move to put Ninokuni on the PS3 and he suggested that it wasn't indicative of a soured relationship with Nintendo on the part of Level 5 or anything. In a way, I think that putting Ninokuni on the PS3 makes a lot of sense, perhaps more so than putting it on the Wii.

I don't think its indicitive of a soured relationship with Nintendo either..I do think that if the Wii was healthier in Japan it might not have went to the PS3 at all. Of course, if next week they announce Break for Wii then that theory is probably out the window.