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[gerg]

I don't think its indicitive of a soured relationship with Nintendo either..I do think that if the Wii was healthier in Japan it might not have went to the PS3 at all. Of course, if next week they announce Break for Wii then that theory is probably out the window.

It's just that pretty much anyone who's going to own a Wii will own a DS, and the game's strengths lie in its graphics. Perhaps from a world-wide perspective the decision may not have been the best one to make, but then the Ghibli name doesn't carry as much weight in the West as it does in Japan.

 

[DrGAKMAN]

Hardware sales are still healthy, yes, but I think they are clearly on a downward slope. I think the #1 reason I see a Wii successor soon is the state of the console in Japan is very very unhealthy and if they let the system languish for another 2 years I think it could be very difficult to get 3rd parties on board. Do me a favor and look at the list of games that have come out for the Wii in Japan this year and what is announced so far. Aside from the fact that Nintendo themselves basically ignored the Wii for the first half of the year, the 3rd party lineup is non existent. The only notable game announced/released is going to be the Dragon Quest arcade port. I understand the argument that its done fine without 3rd party support, etc...but at some point there aren't going to be any games released for the system and the inevitable successor is going to be damaged IMO.

The analcists said the same thing about a downward slope from late 2008 to mid 2009...some made it sound like a cliff, but they were wrong. I'm not saying it'll last forever, but the rules did change. The values of bigger/stronger/faster were changed with DS/Wii so neither really need *just* a bigger/stronger/faster successor, but rather something different...and not because the old values demand it, but when that different "hook" is ready.

With DS that something different for it's successor is 3D (among other things). With Wii's successor, it too will be something different (though we haven't a clue what) rather than just bigger/stronger/faster. And I don't think it's 3DTV's (though I think it might be a part of the Wii's successor), I don't see that as the "hook" as that's already the 3DS's hook and it would be some time before 3DTV's are relevant.

Now if the aim is to move more to wards a mainly portables business (with hybrid's or console "versions" or hook-ups for at-home use) then it really matter's not if the console business is on a downward spiral in Japan (or the world) because 3DS is in prime condition to pad that fall. If Nintendo really wants to keep console gaming alive, certainly Wii needs a successor, but I don't think it'll be a mear evolution (bigger/stronger/faster) but a revolution once again. And this revolution can't be 3D if they want to keep the console and portable businesses separate.

In the mean time, Wii doesn't need a successor, it's in a market all it's own and really is not in direct competition with PS3/X360 no more than the NES was in competition with the popular gaming computers of it's day. Sega pushed Nintendo to play the bigger/stronger/faster game and surely Sony/Microsoft will look to do the same, but what will really bring about the Wii's successor is when Nintendo finds a new and different "hook" they feel the market will be primed for when they introduce it. This may take some time...and conveniently Sony really is stuck with the PS3 for some time too in order to make good on it's initial investment for the company.

So my remarks still stand...Nintendo won't talk about their new revolution until after the competition start talking about their next generation. To be honest, I could see Sony/Microsoft missing the point and receding into trying to emulate the Wii with a last ditch refresh of the current hardware and losing more footing because they really add nothing new to the level that the Wii did. Will there be a PSP2 even? Will Microsoft re-brand the next X-BOX into more of a hybrid gaming PC/set-top-box instead of a direct competitor to Nintendo in order to calm their investors? People talk of Nintendo needing to be worried about Apple, I think it's Sony & Microsoft who need to be more worried about Apple.

 

[Vinci]

The reason people are suggesting that a new Wii might come early, GAK, is because the Wii has basically followed the DS's strategy from the word go. Nintendo's current strategy with the DS, as far as anyone can tell at this time, is to cut Sony's handheld efforts off at the knees. They have the 3rd parties - at least Japanese - firmly onboard. Nintendo will focus on getting the mainstream and expanded audience, and the 3rd parties look set to deliver a system for the traditional gamers. This is devastating to any chances Sony might have had with a PSP2.

If a Wii 2 were to appear soon, ie. 2011 or early 2012, Sony and Microsoft's efforts with motion controls and everything they're trying to do would be cut off at the knees. Neither one is really in a position to counter with new hardware that soon; both are trying like hell to extend this generation. No one is suggesting that Nintendo would launch new console hardware without some hook to it, but they will not offer a system that is underpowered relative to the 360 and PS3 because it would be stupid to do so. It's immensely inexpensive to get hardware superior to those two systems at this point in time.

If 3rd parties were at all intelligent, they would support the Wii's successor as the lead platform for all software and down-port to the 360 and PS3. They could even bring out a Wii 2 level release for the PC as well. They would be able to sell their titles on all the systems. It makes logical sense for them to do that.

So there is some strategic advantage to Nintendo killing the Wii off slightly earlier than they absolutely have to.

 

[charlequin]

But after that, I think home console generations as we know them are finished.

I don't quite agree, but only because the systems that are on the market now have logistical and architectural problems that can't really be resolved without the kind of surgery that's impossible to do mid-generation. I think it's quite possible, though, that we'll see those two systems artificially extended a few extra years, and then both followed up by Wii-style upgrades that upclock their existing architectures, throw in added RAM, and try to futureproof more with major feature upgrades where appropriate (BRD in MS' system, for example.)

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

So there is some strategic advantage to Nintendo killing the Wii off slightly earlier than they absolutely have to.

Or overlap the generations; if Nintendo do release a WiiHD I would expect it to have full Wii compatibility and for Wii games to contniue being produced for the exact same reasons the DS had full GBA compatibility.

 

[TunaLover]

DS and Wii were launched with 2 years difference, 2012 sounds about right for the next console, we could start getting info on SuperWii the next year. The problem is that Nintendo probably got pretty short of resources with all those 3DS proyects. Supporting two console like that will be hard.

 

[Vinci]

DS and Wii were launched with 2 years difference, 2012 sounds about right for the next console, we could start getting info on SuperWii the next year. The problem is that Nintendo probably got pretty short of resources with all those 3DS proyects. Supporting two console like that will be hard.

I think it would be hard to bring out something next year, but 2012 is doable. I really don't think they're hitting the 3DS as hard as people think they are. There's a lot of ports and such being thrown out there.

 

[gerg]

I think it would be hard to bring out something next year, but 2012 is doable. I really don't think they're hitting the 3DS as hard as people think they are. There's a lot of ports and such being thrown out there.

I don't think that Nintendo particularly gains anything from releasing a Wii2 for a year and Microsoft and Sony just deciding to live it out with the PS3 and the 360 for an extra year or so; to be honest, I don't think that Nintendo would make particular inroads into the 18-35 male demographic by doing that. Instead, the best situation would be for Nintendo to release its console early enough that it's the first to market, but late enough that Microsoft and Sony then feel the need to respond with a console launch of their own. I'd be concerned that, were Nintendo to release the Wii2 too early, by the time Microsoft and Sony responded with their own consoles the Wii2 would be old hat.

 

[Fourth Storm]

On the topic of the Vitality Sensor, I think it would be in Nintendo's best interests to ship that in the fall of this year. They can then advertise that it helps you get through all the holiday stress. I don't know if they'll have room for it in their holiday lineup, though, without being overshadowed by DKC, WiiParty, and the 3DS.

I have faith that Nintendo can successfully support Wii into 2012. At this E3, they showed a good number of games, may of which had only been hinted at or rumored. And they can always go back to the well and make a NSMB and/or DKC sequel for late 2011. Granted they launch the Wii2 in September of 2012, the first half of that year will likely be very dry, but there's no real way of avoiding that. Third parties have left them out to dry.

The other X factor is Dragon Quest X. If we don't hear anything about the game at TGS, that may be an indication it has been moved to PS3.

Also, whatever happened to Line Attack Heroes. I thought that game looked cool, and certainly more fun that Fling Smash. I can't believe they are still planning on releasing that as a retail title in the west. Meanwhile, they let Xenoblade fall off the radar.

 

[TunaLover]

I don't think that Nintendo particularly gains anything from releasing a Wii2 for a year and Microsoft and Sony just deciding to live it out with the PS3 and the 360 for an extra year or so; to be honest, I don't think that Nintendo would make particular inroads into the 18-35 male demographic by doing that. Instead, the best situation would be for Nintendo to release its console early enough that it's the first to market, but late enough that Microsoft and Sony then feel the need to respond with a console launch of their own. I'd be concerned that, were Nintendo to release the Wii2 too early, by the time Microsoft and Sony responded with their own consoles the Wii2 would be old hat.

The thing is MS/Sony will try to extend PS360 life so much they can, they seems pretty serious about their new periferals (they go after Wii market, so you can bet your head they are dead serious about it), and I don't think they are in position of just throwing all to the recicle bin and release a new console.

 

[gerg]

The other X factor is Dragon Quest X. If we don't hear anything about the game at TGS, that may be an indication it has been moved to PS3.

No.

 

[MadOdorMachine]

I think it would be hard to bring out something next year, but 2012 is doable. I really don't think they're hitting the 3DS as hard as people think they are. There's a lot of ports and such being thrown out there.

2012 makes sense. I suspect Zelda will be the last major release on Wii with some quick cash ins spread out over 2012 to tide people over until the release of the next system - code name WiiWii. On a serious note, it looks like the next Nintendo console could have better 3rd party support than they've had in over a decade. Everyone was caught off guard by the how popular Wii became and I don't think they'll give it more support the next round.

 

[Pureauthor]

The other X factor is Dragon Quest X. If we don't hear anything about the game at TGS, that may be an indication it has been moved to PS3.

Why, on God's green earth, would the DQX be moved to, of all places, the PS3?

 

[FoneBone]

The other X factor is Dragon Quest X. If we don't hear anything about the game at TGS, that may be an indication it has been moved to PS3.

ahahahahaha NO. If anything, it'd be switched to 3DS (or maybe, maybe Wii2).

 

[Fourth Storm]

Why, on God's green earth, would the DQX be moved to, of all places, the PS3?

I don't want it to happen and am not calling it likely. Sheesh, it's like I set off a bomb with that comment. I'm just saying anything is possible. Why did Level 5 put their game on PS3? Perhaps the developers have ideas for the game that are not possible on Wii technically. Square Enix support for Wii has been lackluster all generation, unlike Nintendo DS, which saw a good mix of ports, remakes, and original titles all BEFORE DQ9.

How did Monster Hunter Tri sell in Japan? My understanding was it did alright, but not the sales of the PSP games. Square Enix have no brand loyalty. They're analyzing where the market seems headed for the 2011/2012 release of the game. By that point, 3DS will surely have sold millions, but the PS3 will likely still have a larger installed base in Japan, and it seems to be picking up steam as time goes by and the price continues to drop.

 

[FoneBone]

Why did Level 5 put their game on PS3? Perhaps the developers have ideas for the game that are not possible on Wii technically.

...aaaaaaaaaand this relates to DQX how?

 

[schuelma]

I don't want it to happen and am not calling it likely. Sheesh, it's like I set off a bomb with that comment. I'm just saying anything is possible. Why did Level 5 put their game on PS3? Perhaps the developers have ideas for the game that are not possible on Wii technically. Square Enix support for Wii has been lackluster all generation, unlike Nintendo DS, which saw a good mix of ports, remakes, and original titles all BEFORE DQ9.

How did Monster Hunter Tri sell in Japan? My understanding was it did alright, but not the sales of the PSP games. Square Enix have no brand loyalty. They're analyzing where the market seems headed for the 2011/2012 release of the game. By that point, 3DS will surely have sold millions, but the PS3 will likely still have a larger installed base in Japan, and it seems to be picking up steam as time goes by and the price continues to drop.

I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous. Yes, the PS3 is doing better than before. It's also getting some cool software announcements. But the idea that its really "picking up steam" after hardware sales are again behind the half dead Wii and would be any sort of worthwhile competition for the DS or 3DS in 2012 is absurd.

 

[Pureauthor]

I don't want it to happen and am not calling it likely. Sheesh, it's like I set off a bomb with that comment. I'm just saying anything is possible. Why did Level 5 put their game on PS3? Perhaps the developers have ideas for the game that are not possible on Wii technically. Square Enix support for Wii has been lackluster all generation, unlike Nintendo DS, which saw a good mix of ports, remakes, and original titles all BEFORE DQ9.

How did Monster Hunter Tri sell in Japan? My understanding was it did alright, but not the sales of the PSP games. Square Enix have no brand loyalty. They're analyzing where the market seems headed for the 2011/2012 release of the game. By that point, 3DS will surely have sold millions, but the PS3 will likely still have a larger installed base in Japan, and it seems to be picking up steam as time goes by and the price continues to drop.

Okay, here's how it works.

Hori (creator of Dragon Quest) has gone on record saying that he wants his game to be played by as many people as possible, and directly as a result of that, the mainline Dragon Quest game goes to the system with the highest installed base on the market. Moving from the Wii I consider unlikely enough, moving it to the PS3 simply will not happen.

 

[Vinci]

DQX will be Wii or 3DS bound. There is no other option.

 

[FoneBone]

How did Monster Hunter Tri sell in Japan? My understanding was it did alright, but not the sales of the PSP games.

The PS2 games didn't do as well as the PSP games, either

 

[Kilrogg]

DQX will be Wii or 3DS bound. There is no other option.

iPad

... Nah.

 

[H_Prestige]

Why can't DQ be on multiple systems?

 

[Fourth Storm]

...aaaaaaaaaand this relates to DQX how?

It relates to you and the rest of Gaf not being able to accurately predict what system a game comes out for, despite what demographic it seemingly appeals to. Same thing with Rayman. Everyone says - "That would sell great on Wii." Maybe so, but the developers had other ideas for it. Am I calling this "proof?" Absolutely not. There have been great surprises, though. Need I remind you of that Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy 7 were originally announced for N64? "Bu bu but that could never happen again! It mustn't!"

Dragon Quest X will sell millions for whatever system it comes out for. Hell, they could make it a cell phone game if they wanted. If software from popular franchises/IPs end up consistently underperforming on Wii, Square Enix will do what they see fit, regardless of the high installed base.

 

[Vinci]

Why can't DQ be on multiple systems?

Because it doesn't have to be. Wherever DQ is, its fanbase goes.

 

[Pureauthor]

Why can't DQ be on multiple systems?

What for? Japan traditionally picks one winner in terms of system wars and sticks with it. This generation has been the only one with multiple systems gaining some measure of success. DQ going multiplat wouldn't see much benefits at all.

Dragon Quest X will sell millions for whatever system it comes out for. Hell, they could make it a cell phone game if they wanted. If software from popular franchises/IPs end up consistently underperforming on Wii, Square Enix will do what they see fit, regardless of the high installed base.

No. DQ is not used as a system seller. It is used as a crown, because it only goes to the system that has clearly established itself as dominant over the Japanese market.

 

[gerg]

Dragon Quest X will sell millions for whatever system it comes out for. Hell, they could make it a cell phone game if they wanted. If software from popular franchises/IPs end up consistently underperforming on Wii, Square Enix will do what they see fit, regardless of the high installed base.

Yes. But it would sell more millions on the Wii than on the PS3.

 

[H_Prestige]

Because it doesn't have to be. Wherever DQ is, its fanbase goes.

So there would be no problem if, hypothetically, DQX were 360 exclusive?

 

[charlequin]

Sheesh, it's like I set off a bomb with that comment.

That's because it was a particularly silly comment.

I'm just saying anything is possible.

No, anything is not possible. One can tell from your comparisons that you don't actually know much about the subject, which is why people are poking at your conclusion.

Dragon Quest is the best-selling RPG in Japan, quite literally by a margin of more than 2x over the nearest competitor. It is purchased by a broad demographic: kids, teenagers, elderlies, parents, on and on. Its entire purpose for existence is to sell to the broadest conceivable demographic, which is why literally every main-series entry ever has been released on the system that was judged to have the biggest userbase in Japan at the time of release, regardless of all other factors. That's why we saw 9 go to DS -- it was just more successful than any home console, so it was the only place the series could really go.

It is not a technologically-driven franchise. It is not a franchise whose direction is driven by "Square-Enix" in the first place, but rather by its creator, Yuji Horii. He's made it clear over time the process by which the series' platform is picked, and has been 100% consistent in following that process throughout the series' history. If the game does not come out on Wii (but it almost certainly will) it would only be because it was releasing late enough that Wii was no longer a system that it could be assumed "everyone" in Japan had access to, and some new system had usurped that position. The PS3, no matter what happens, can never and will never be in the position to receive a DQ main series title.

 

[Vinci]

So there would be no problem if, hypothetically, DQX were 360 exclusive?

Ignore me. I forgot how DQ works. What Hori says goes. If he says it goes to the system with the largest userbase, that's where it goes.

 

[Pureauthor]

So there would be no problem if, hypothetically, DQX were 360 exclusive?

Yes. Yes, there would indeed be massive problems.

 

[schuelma]

It relates to you and the rest of Gaf not being able to accurately predict what system a game comes out for, despite what demographic it seemingly appeals to. Same thing with Rayman. Everyone says - "That would sell great on Wii." Maybe so, but the developers had other ideas for it. Am I calling this "proof?" Absolutely not. There have been great surprises, though. Need I remind you of that Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy 7 were originally announced for N64? "Bu bu but that could never happen again! It mustn't!"

Dragon Quest X will sell millions for whatever system it comes out for. Hell, they could make it a cell phone game if they wanted. If software from popular franchises/IPs end up consistently underperforming on Wii, Square Enix will do what they see fit, regardless of the high installed base.

Ok, first, the gaf reasoning isn't due to audience- its related to userbase, pure and simple. DQ goes to the system with the biggest userbase, bottom line.

Second, I'm not quite sure where you are going with the "popular franchises underperform on Wii" argument. I assume you are going to cite Monster Hunter, which I don't think is a very good example, and the only other examples I think are out there don't seem to be directly applicable to a DQ game (I suppose Tales is similar, though I think the problems go way beyond userbase for that one). The reason it won't go to the Wii is if SE calculates that when it is released the 3DS audience will be bigger and/or more engaged in buying software than a dead Wii.

 

[Pureauthor]

If DQX somehow does go to the Wii I wonder if Iwata would be happy or displeased.

On one hand, potential repeat of DQIX record breaking sales. On the other, it's pretty much a public snub to the Wii.

 

[TunaLover]

DQX will be Wii or 3DS bound. There is no other option.

DQ games always release at the very end of console life, when the user base is higher.

 

[Vinci]

DQ games always release at the very end of console life, when the user base is higher.

DQ IX came out at the end of the DS's life?

 

[FoneBone]

If DQX somehow does go to the Wii I wonder if Iwata would be happy or displeased.

On one hand, potential repeat of DQIX record breaking sales. On the other, it's pretty much a public snub to the Wii.

I believe you meant "3DS" in that first sentence

 

[Zachack]

If DQX somehow does go to the Wii I wonder if Iwata would be happy or displeased.

On one hand, potential repeat of DQIX record breaking sales. On the other, it's pretty much a public snub to the Wii.

Do you mean 3DS? I'm not seeing how Wii getting DQX is a snub to Wii, unless Hori actually holds down console makers against their will and forces DQ upon them.

 

[Fourth Storm]

That's because it was a particularly silly comment.



No, anything is not possible. One can tell from your comparisons that you don't actually know much about the subject, which is why people are poking at your conclusion.

Dragon Quest is the best-selling RPG in Japan, quite literally by a margin of more than 2x over the nearest competitor. It is purchased by a broad demographic: kids, teenagers, elderlies, parents, on and on. Its entire purpose for existence is to sell to the broadest conceivable demographic, which is why literally every main-series entry ever has been released on the system that was judged to have the biggest userbase in Japan at the time of release, regardless of all other factors. That's why we saw 9 go to DS -- it was just more successful than any home console, so it was the only place the series could really go.

It is not a technologically-driven franchise. It is not a franchise whose direction is driven by "Square-Enix" in the first place, but rather by its creator, Yuji Horii. He's made it clear over time the process by which the series' platform is picked, and has been 100% consistent in following that process throughout the series' history. If the game does not come out on Wii (but it almost certainly will) it would only be because it was releasing late enough that Wii was no longer a system that it could be assumed "everyone" in Japan had access to, and some new system had usurped that position. The PS3, no matter what happens, can never and will never be in the position to receive a DQ main series title.

I'm quite aware of the series history and impact it has on Japanese culture. The situation with Wii, however, is unprecedented. When has the market leader ever received such lackluster support from third parties? Of course, whatever Horii says, goes, but we have no idea how far off the game actually is, since we have seen or heard zero since the announcement way back. In that time, alot could happen involving the system wars.

I am looking at an unlikely but possible scenario in which Wii releases in Japan dry up over the course of 2011 while PS3 sales continue to rise. If there is a "Super Wii" released from late 2011-2012, and it is not that much more powerful than PS3, then Sony could very well get away with a "ten year lifecylce" in which they have the advantage of a larger installed base.

 

[charlequin]

If DQX somehow does go to the 3DS I wonder if Iwata would be happy or displeased.

On one hand, potential repeat of DQIX record breaking sales. On the other, it's pretty much a public snub to the Wii.

If it goes to the 3DS, it'd only be because it's coming out after the Wii is obviously and visibly decrept anyway. Hard to hold a grudge about that.

 

[TunaLover]

DQ IX came out at the end of the DS's life?

More less, it depends on specific console, what I mean it try to catch the higher userbase possible, and it tend to happen very late in console life.

 

[schuelma]

I am looking at an unlikely but possible scenario in which Wii releases in Japan dry up over the course of 2011 while PS3 sales continue to rise. If there is a "Super Wii" released from late 2011-2012, and it is not that much more powerful than PS3, then Sony could very well get away with a "ten year lifecylce" in which they have the advantage of a larger installed base.

Why are you ignoring the DS/3DS in this analysis? Heck, why are you ignoring the PSP?

 

[gerg]

I am looking at an unlikely but possible scenario in which Wii releases in Japan dry up over the course of 2011 while PS3 sales continue to rise.

"Continue" to rise? PS3 sales rose, and are now comparable to the Wii's sales, being either slightly above or slightly below depending on which tracker you follow. (That is, they're pretty bad.) The PS3 is like a phoenix in reverse.

 

[Fourth Storm]

Why are you ignoring the DS/3DS in this analysis? Heck, why are you ignoring the PSP?

I'm not ignoring them. I'm thinking of the combination of relevance/installed base around the theoretical year of 2012. If the 3DS can match or exceed PS3's userbase in that amount of time, it could go to 3DS. Heck, it could possibly even go to all of them! Don't know in detail how similar they are to program for, but Capcom got MT Framework to run on 3DS, so who knows?

 

[Leviathan1]

During Nintendo's conference and the unveil of the 3DS I was desperate to be able to see the 3D in action. I'm super curious about the no-glasses feature and how much of a wow factor the 3D effect pulls off. I predict that the 3DS will equal the DS in sales.

The X-factor here is Sony. What the hell are they going to do. Last gen Microsoft and Nintendo both seemed doomed with the Xbox and GameCube and they both turned it all around to get into first and second place this gen.

I wonder if Sony can truly strike back with something new.

 

[charlequin]

When has the market leader ever received such lackluster support from third parties?

Err... who cares? :lol

I am looking at an unlikely but possible scenario in which Wii releases in Japan dry up over the course of 2011 while PS3 sales continue to rise.

At best what you're looking at here is a PSP situation where a loser system clings on to scratch out higher numbers while the system that beat the pants off of it hits a saturation point and slows down. That didn't do much for the PSP's chances at DQ and it's not going to do much for PS3's.

That is mostly ignoring the more important point, however, which is that there will never be a time when PS3 would be the system of choice for the game under any conceivable circumstances. If Wii fades out so strongly that it is no longer suitable, you'd be looking at the 3DS or some next-generation system as the alternative, not a system that's already on the market and established itself as anything but the system-for-everybody.

 

[Fourth Storm]

"Continue" to rise? PS3 sales rose, and are now comparable to the Wii's sales, being either slightly above or slightly below depending on which tracker you follow. (That is, they're pretty bad.) The PS3 is like a phoenix in reverse.

I'm giving the PS3 the benefit of the doubt by thinking over the long term and considering the quality of software to be released for both systems after this year. Wii got basically no Japanese third party announcements this E3. I would also think Final Fantasy versus 13 will result in another decent spike.

 

[brain_stew]

More information about AMD's Fusion chips is leaking out. They're set to have as many as 480 DX 11 class stream processors with 4 core version with a TDP as little as 35w.

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/...ntinue_to_Exist_Even_After_Fusion_Launch.html

http://www.xtremesystems.org/forums/showthread.php?t=253664

Even with these standard configs that we'll see in the PC space, they'll blow away console performance but if Nintendo simply tweak them to take GDDR5 memory (1GB will do) then there'll be no contest. So the hardware is there, its cheap, low power and is integrated into a single chip. If Nintendo want to deliver a $250/$300 console in 2011 that comfortably outperforms the PS3 and 360 then they can do it even without a big R & D investment.

 

[schuelma]

I would also think Final Fantasy versus 13 will result in another decent spike.

Yes, that FF13 spike did wonders long term.

 

[Vinci]

I'm giving the PS3 the benefit of the doubt by thinking over the long term and considering the quality of software to be released for both systems after this year. Wii got basically no Japanese third party announcements this E3. I would also think Final Fantasy versus 13 will result in another decent spike.

FF XIII is already on the platform. Why would Versus massively impact it?

 

[gerg]

I'm giving the PS3 the benefit of the doubt by thinking over the long term and considering the quality of software to be released for both systems after this year.

The upcoming software releases are of insignificance (in regards to hardware sales) if all those games are in genres that have already been released on the PS3. The only thing I could see changing that is The Last Guardian, but that's not seeing release for a long while.

I would also think Final Fantasy versus 13 will result in another decent spike.

Why?

Pretty much anyone who would want to play an RPG on the PS3 has got one by now.

 

[charlequin]

I'm giving the PS3 the benefit of the doubt

No, you're inventing implausible scenarios with an even more implausible end conclusion for them to support. There is literally no remotely feasible situation in which the PS3 becomes the platform for Dragon Quest X and it would be better to just say "yeah, I guess you're right, that didn't make much sense" than try to double down on it.

(Also, you're not going to see any significant spike of PS3 sales when XIII Vs. comes out given that its target market is exactly the people who already bought XIII in the first place and therefore already own PS3s.)