Alx
Member
So "my AI actually says she'll lose, but I think she'll win !". He's either projecting his own wishes on that prediction, or he's just trying to get more attention through a bold statement.
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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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So "my AI actually says she'll lose, but I think she'll win !". He's either projecting his own wishes on that prediction, or he's just trying to get more attention through a bold statement.
I expect both him and the A.I. will be wrong in the end. The A.I's. margin of victory for Macron will probably end up being to low. Also, I don't know how le pen gains seriously ground after a first round win. We know the FN got destroyed in the second round of some recent french election despite doing well in the first round of these election
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
I hope I'm wrong but I think if it's Macron VS LePen, LePen will win easily.
whyamihere
Banned
Bayrou seems to steal fairly cleanly from a lot of different candidates, it seems.
Also I don't see any polls where Fillon or Macron poll within the MOE of Le Pen? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
If Macron is smart he will neutralize some of her arguements like his connections to the french elite by arguing how she's connected to shady people or institutions like her father and russia banks. We know a bit more about le pen's financial history and how she gets some of her money to help make her party competitive for elections then we did trump.
I don't see the gap in the polls between Macron and Le Pen decreasing by 30% by May. Macron's and even fillon's polling advantage is way bigger then Hilary's ever was against trump and it's way easier to find something politics related to damage le pen with then trump. I expect something big to be revealed that will hurt le pen in the second round and maybe even the first round. There's also le pen's father who may actually end up hurting his daughter's chances of winning the french election.
Edit: I'm hearing now that le pen wants to ban gay marriage for any couple that is not already married. I expect le pen's LGBT support to drop a bit because of this soon.
vonStirlitz
Unconfirmed Member
I can't see anyway Le Pen will get in (coming from someone who correctly guessed Brexit and Trump). The French electorate and the two round system will prevent it.
The only caveat is if something exceptional happened - either fallout from the US to any politician with links to Russia (which will torch Le Pen) or an internal crisis involving immigrants or nutters (which could benefit Le Pen).
The only caveat is if something exceptional happened - either fallout from the US to any politician with links to Russia (which will torch Le Pen) or an internal crisis involving immigrants or nutters (which could benefit Le Pen).
99% sure you're wrong on this. It's a centrist with a generally positive image among the French VS an extremist hated by almost everyone who isn't from her party base.
Herb Alpert
Banned
So fillon issued some PR, I'm on my phone, can't quote sorry. The wording seems now to imply that he wouldn't withdraw even if he was indicted.
Yeah, shoking news...
"je m'en remets donc au seul jugement du suffrage universel"
What a dick
This man is a dick.
Yeah, shoking news...
"je m'en remets donc au seul jugement du suffrage universel"
What a dick
This man is a dick.
I don't remember where some people were impressed by the crowd cheering in Macron's meetings.
Now, we know why it's so efficient... It's 2.0. They developped a phone app so that a PR head can coordinate in real time a bunch of people in the crowd, telling them what to make people around them shout and when, at what time they should applaude, etc.
Would have been funnier if they used Pictochat, but no doubt the trick is efficient. I can see it be used by others. Have you ever seen this in other meetings, I'm curious?
Sarkozy must laugh. He's apparently counselling Fillion on how to handle the matter (among others), some say he may give bad advices on purpose, I'm nearly willing to believe it.
I hope you're wrong, btw.
Also, not a lot of people are talking about the elections *after* the president election, but honestly, is there even ONE candidate that can expect a backing majority after that?
* President, not prime minister... I don't think he's that good at handling thing on a day to day basis, but president in France used to be more discreet, setting directions, not actually governing. I'm convinced that him and Borloo as prime minister would have worked well.
Now, we know why it's so efficient... It's 2.0. They developped a phone app so that a PR head can coordinate in real time a bunch of people in the crowd, telling them what to make people around them shout and when, at what time they should applaude, etc.
Would have been funnier if they used Pictochat, but no doubt the trick is efficient. I can see it be used by others. Have you ever seen this in other meetings, I'm curious?
For all its declarations last summer about how De Gaulle would never have run for the presidency if he was indicted...
Sarkozy must laugh. He's apparently counselling Fillion on how to handle the matter (among others), some say he may give bad advices on purpose, I'm nearly willing to believe it.
For one thing the two round system is good... Beside that, that mostly mean that the one coming second in the first turn is elected, and the one coming seconds mostly depend on the number of candidates for each political "area"... Tell us about awful methods :/
I hope you're wrong, btw.
yes... For all I think it could make a better president* than a lot of the candidates, though, I'm not sure I want an even more random first turn...
Also, not a lot of people are talking about the elections *after* the president election, but honestly, is there even ONE candidate that can expect a backing majority after that?
* President, not prime minister... I don't think he's that good at handling thing on a day to day basis, but president in France used to be more discreet, setting directions, not actually governing. I'm convinced that him and Borloo as prime minister would have worked well.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
As if Sarkozy could provide good advice, the festering hobgoblin.
Alx
Member
You have to admit that he managed to look relevant in politics even after going through much worse accusations than Fillon. He must be quite good at handling that kind of situation.
Palette Swap
Member
He might be a wretched cunt, but Sarkozy is really good at doublespeak and indignation. Fillon's acting is so terrible he couldn't even be an extra on a soap opera.
That was Fillon's biggest asset IMO: what you see is what you get. It turns out to be a huge weakness when he's caught lying.
Alx
Member
Herb Alpert
Banned
"you're in trouble man so i'll tell what I do when in a situation like yours. Talk security. Scare old people. Issue a lot of ideas that will divide people, like lowering penal majority. You're in luck. Some morons are on the verge of riot in suburbs. Use this to draw the attention away from your mess."
Palette Swap
Member
Yeah, changing his platform to introduce a penal majority lowering while we have some of the worst prisons in Europe is a great idea.
Hope he and Sarkozy eventually get to experience that overpopulation.
Hope he and Sarkozy eventually get to experience that overpopulation.
Even members of her own party don't like her much. They are mostly just putting up with her because she's their best shot to power. I wonder what will happen to her leadership of the FN once she loses the presidential and parliamentary election.
Also, Macron will probably end up being a very challenging opponent for Le Pen to defeat despite his flaws. It probably won't be a walk in the park for le pen if she faces Macron in the second round,
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Indeed... And for Fillon, he may get a LR majority, but I think half of those will feel pressure from electors to oppose him. Kinda like the gap we got with the left in the last 4 years.
Should he be elected (that's a stretch, currently), I see plently of 49-3 to push some of the strong points of his program, there will be no other option.
If she loose after being in the lead at first turn, and especially if she's near 40 in the second, I don't see her going anywhere.
Beside, her niece is worse.
Well, even if they somehow end in prison, I have no doubt they'll receive special treatment.
That being said, even if it's smoke, if the issue is the immediate judgement for 16-18 y.o., they can simply remove the fact the majority requirement for this. Unless I'm mistaken, Belgium has a similar law, but no majority requirement.
man im way out of the loop but this is scaring me a bit
i must live in a hell of a bubble because who are those young lepen voters??
weirdly enough all my older relatives with racist opinions are pretty much voting for anyone but lepen, i dont' get this country sometimes.
the fillon numbers are weird as hell as well, I'm 25 and it seems fillon does really shit with my age group but the 19 year olds are ok with him?? this country has a serious education problem holy shit
My guess is that they didn't grew up under Sarkozyism
i must live in a hell of a bubble because who are those young lepen voters??
weirdly enough all my older relatives with racist opinions are pretty much voting for anyone but lepen, i dont' get this country sometimes.
the fillon numbers are weird as hell as well, I'm 25 and it seems fillon does really shit with my age group but the 19 year olds are ok with him?? this country has a serious education problem holy shit
My guess is that they didn't grew up under Sarkozyism
Mass_Pincup
Banned
man im way out of the loop but this is scaring me a bit
i must live in a hell of a bubble because who are those young lepen voters??
weirdly enough all my older relatives with racist opinions are pretty much voting for anyone but lepen, i dont' get this country sometimes.
the fillon numbers are weird as hell as well, I'm 25 and it seems fillon does really shit with my age group but the 19 year olds are ok with him?? this country has a serious education problem holy shit
I really have a hard time believing this, always thought that Fillon and Le Pen skewed older.
Fake Edit: This one is more up to date and shows Mélenchon leading the youth vote. Which seems more plausible with the way he's using social media.
man im way out of the loop but this is scaring me a bit
i must live in a hell of a bubble because who are those young lepen voters??
weirdly enough all my older relatives with racist opinions are pretty much voting for anyone but lepen, i dont' get this country sometimes.
the fillon numbers are weird as hell as well, I'm 25 and it seems fillon does really shit with my age group but the 19 year olds are ok with him?? this country has a serious education problem holy shit
My guess is that they didn't grew up under Sarkozyism
Can you explain this for me i don't get it.
Mass_Pincup
Banned
It basically shows how people will vote based on their age group.
For exemple acording to this poll 35% of the 18-24 year olds will vote for Marine Le Pen and 30% of the 25-34 and 35-49.
In my bubble they don't vote at all. The real mystery is the Macron hype still. I mean, two days ago he showed support for the "Manif pour tous" saying they were victims. Apart for Trump, whose ratings wouldn't be hit by that?
Also could you link the source?
Alx
Member
I guess older voters are more suspicious about the FN because they remember the old version of the party, which was more openly racist. Marine Le Pen did a good job giving a more respectable Outlook to the FN (even if at its core it probably didn't change much).
Younger voters only know her and not Jean-Marie. Also it may be easier to be anti-EU when you never knew Europe before it.
Alx
Member
He said they were "humiliated". Which is quite true, most people mocked them as backwards conservative bigots. Whether they deserve it or not is another question...
fuck off with that right now
they waived away any right to dignity when they said any of the horrible shit they spouted about gay people nonstop for the whole duration of that debate
like, if your thought about how that law was passed was "the real victims here are the Manif Pour Tous people", that should disqualify you from running as a candidate of the left
Alx
Member
Who are "they" ? Did all the people opposing the law spout homophobic stuff ?
That's precisely what Macron is addressing, you handle disagreement through discussion, not disdain.
Specifically the Manif pour Tous and its supporters. And anyone who's against equality for gay people, because that's the whole thing was about. They deserve all the disdain one can muster and then more. I'll go as far as to say the whole reason it got so bad is because we allowed discussion on this in the first place. We let them do and say a lot of absolutely harmful things that made life demonstrably worse for lgbt people.
There is no negotiating when the subject at hand is the humanity of minorities. Pure and simple. The cynicism of Macron (and of Mélenchon, who said similar things on the topic) in trying to court these voters is extremely contemptible.
Alx
Member
Discussion doesn't always mean negotiation. And it is important to keep that discussion open rather than being judgemental and rejecting a whole category of people.
See how well it worked for the US when all the more knowledgeable people labeled Trump supporters "deplorables" and only managed to strengthen their frustration and animosity. The "manif pour tous" are our deplorables.
See how well it worked for the US when all the more knowledgeable people labeled Trump supporters "deplorables" and only managed to strengthen their frustration and animosity. The "manif pour tous" are our deplorables.
I disagree with him on the humiliation thing but I didn't expect it to be that controversial.
His support for LGBT rights is unambiguous, I believe discussion with the manif pour tous is a waste of time but I can't blame him for trying to reach them. Especially now that Fillon, their natural candidate, is where he is now.
His support for LGBT rights is unambiguous, I believe discussion with the manif pour tous is a waste of time but I can't blame him for trying to reach them. Especially now that Fillon, their natural candidate, is where he is now.
Was this posted here yet? Macron revealed some of the things he plans to do if he becomes the next french president recently.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20170217/this-is-what-emmanuel-macron-plans-for-france
http://www.thelocal.fr/20170217/this-is-what-emmanuel-macron-plans-for-france
I only have disdain for the opinions shown in manif pour tous, but I think the equality part is a insanely complex matter.
I still haven't seen anyone explaining me why marriage grants a bunch of fiscal advantages. Historically, it's because you could expect married people to be a strong basis to welcome children soon (and France wanted soldiers), but now...
If you want equality of rights, the next step would be to stop joined taxes for married people (same sex or otherwise, obviously)
They broke equality also when the removed the possibility of pax between people of the same family...
DiipuSurotu
Banned
man im way out of the loop but this is scaring me a bit
i must live in a hell of a bubble because who are those young lepen voters??
weirdly enough all my older relatives with racist opinions are pretty much voting for anyone but lepen, i dont' get this country sometimes.
the fillon numbers are weird as hell as well, I'm 25 and it seems fillon does really shit with my age group but the 19 year olds are ok with him?? this country has a serious education problem holy shit
My guess is that they didn't grew up under Sarkozyism
Have a look at jeuxvideo .com's "18-25 ans" forum. The level of racism and sexism there is insane.
https://www.facebook.com/Qofficiel/videos/1468215256535757/
Thanks for this post.
If anyone has been humiliated in this shitshow, it's the LGBT population that was constantly being insulted (when not physically assaulted) for months on end, not to mention the absolutely revolting use of children to insult a black minister of Justice by comparing her to an ape, complete with throwing her bananas. This group doesn't deserve any pity, at all.
Being LGBT during that time period was a constant battle against depression.
Alx
Member
Nah, you're just being homophobic... :/
sarcasm, obviously.
Most of the reactions above illustrate the issue Macron was adressing, all the "us vs them" mentality only creates division, which is not how you solve issues. And it doesn't mean you have to make compromise with backwards ideas. Just like you don't fight xenophobia by saying "shut up you racist !" to people who are afraid of immigration. Neither do you tell them "ok we'll be a bit racist to please you".
Pizza con salsiccia
Banned
As a reminder, he is a supporter of gay rights and issued proposals to expand them
As pointed earlier, debating is one thing but negotiating is another. I guess the question is which one would he do if he was in charge.
As pointed earlier, debating is one thing but negotiating is another. I guess the question is which one would he do if he was in charge.
No kidding, they have been at the center of almost every election in Western countries for a long time now.
man im way out of the loop but this is scaring me a bit
i must live in a hell of a bubble because who are those young lepen voters??
weirdly enough all my older relatives with racist opinions are pretty much voting for anyone but lepen, i dont' get this country sometimes.
the fillon numbers are weird as hell as well, I'm 25 and it seems fillon does really shit with my age group but the 19 year olds are ok with him?? this country has a serious education problem holy shit
My guess is that they didn't grew up under Sarkozyism
It's people who 1) say that they will vote 2) say that they have decided someone that they will vote for. Most young people don't vote or don't know who they will vote for, but Le Pen and Fillon/Sarkozy voters are eager to vote.
There's an over-representation and that's largely people who don't have a high degree (most only have the high-school degree).
Also the poll isn't very representative because it's fine when they do % with 1000 people, but when they take 18-25 or 25-40 it's 200 people or less, maybe 100 people if you count those who say who won't vote or didn't chose of the 5 that were quoted. Not very scientific.
But yeah, it's easy to misread a (bad) poll.
Macron, colonialism and manif pour tous
not a point I'm trying to support or anything. I always think his entries are relevant from an american perspective.
Starting to see more and more Macron articles in the anglophone press, apparently he was in London today? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-eyes-french-connection-with-voters-in-london
Not surprising that he'd go abroad, there were ~1.3m adults on the consular lists at the end of 2015, that could easily make the difference between him and Fillon if the two remain tied in the polls. To give you an idea, 1% of the first round vote last time was ~360k votes.
Not surprising that he'd go abroad, there were ~1.3m adults on the consular lists at the end of 2015, that could easily make the difference between him and Fillon if the two remain tied in the polls. To give you an idea, 1% of the first round vote last time was ~360k votes.
whyamihere
Banned
Man, these Elabe numbers make me sort of nervous.
Seems like Macron is down a bit and is now neck and neck with Fillon. Ugh.
Seems like Macron is down a bit and is now neck and neck with Fillon. Ugh.
I think Macron will pull it off in the end.Fillon just got a break from all the things he had to deal with in the last couple of weeks or so.The attention will be back on Fillon soon.
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