eso76 said:
well, i was mostly referring to piracy, but it really depends on what the community comes up with imho, and how easy it will be for people to find homebrew. if people start spreading the word that you can find apps to do this and that on ps3, it will also reach casuals eventually. Heck, i swear this is why everyone and their mom owns an iPhone now. At least a part of them is going to be disappointed the ps4 can't do all the useless stuff the ps3 did. Not millions maybe, but i wouldn't overlook that.
And piracy ? when casuals find themselves attracted to a new console their first question usually is "how much are games though, and can they be copied ? Give them a couple years of free games and wild piracy and being told they have to pay 60/70$ for a new ps4 game is going to make them run away.
I don't know about the iPhone, the fact it's beautifully design, incredibly simple to use and is an iPod is probably what sold it for the masses.
As for the PS3/4, I think you're right, but ultimately people won't have a choice. The people who pirate games are gamers, they're going to be compelled to play more games. When MW4 is only on the next-gen systems, and the next GTA is coming, and GT6 etc. At the very most, this 'unlocking' can only fuck Sony over till the day people stop supporting the PS3.
I personally don't believe this is going to be a huge issue. But even if it is, it's for the short term, it's 2011, the PS4 is approaching. Had this happened the first year of the console, PS3 would be dead, PS4 probably would have launched with Move by now. But at this point, I don't think it's going to change Sony's plans significantly.
I'm interested to see what Sony does about PSN access, I think if they can't tell if the game is pirated, they should ban the console from PSN gaming, but leave them access to the store, because it's only going to hurt sales if they stop people being able to legally buy games from the store.
I think disc games are probably okay for the most part. LBP2 for example, I don't know how big it is, but I'm sure it's big enough that most people are not going to want to download it. You can rent games for dirt cheap, cheaper than limitless bandwidth in a lot of places I imagine, and more importantly, it's perfectly legal.
I think this would have been hugely damaging at the start of the generation, or any prior generations, but with the end looming, and the ever growing focus on social network integration and popularity of competitive multiplayer, I think this generation will be the last that is really affected by piracy. This is bad for Sony, but far from deadly.
The only thing I'd be really concerned about is PS3 platform support dropping out, but I don't think people are going to be that rash unless piracy blows up very quickly and becomes very wide spread.