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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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Trouble

Banned
Wonder what Ben Garrison thinks about him?

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Oh he's a (((globalist))).

Wait, they don't like Petraeus now?

What happened to him being so 'unfairly treated'?
 

Wilsongt

Member
I slept at my gf's house last night and left at around 5am. Listened to a rock station on the way home and the announcer introduced a Kid Rock song with "maaaybe the next US Senator?" as if that'd be the greatest thing ever.

I haaate when people do that, like it's so funny that some random celebrity would be a politician somewhere except they usually end up shitting up the state they represent or govern. The exception being Franken.

If Democrats fall one seat short of a Senate majority because of Kid Rock I'm coming after you 93x.

I dunno. Ahnold did okay, didn't he?

Not sure about Ventura.

Reagan was pure garbage, though.
 

Barzul

Member
LOL that debt ceiling fight is going to be something else. He isn't even ready. Could legit result in a recession because of the HFC.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Chris is right on point here and it stands true for 2020

Yeah, but as I discussed several pages ago, he is not pushing a moderate to liberal economic policy. Those voters will not be as enthusiastic next time; they bought into both his racism AND false economic policy.

Of course, this is all assuming that he makes it to 2020.
If he gets pushed out, the 2020 election will be a pointless endeavor, as the Dem will win pretty much regardless of who it is.

Honestly, we need to figure out what Dems should do before 2024, that's going to be the real test after the GOP regroups, and if they still push a unabashed racist with fake liberal economic plans (and if that would even work again), or moderate.
 
"Arnold did ok"

WTF. Some of you either don't live in California or don't know wtf you're talking about. HE WAS HORRIBLE a complete typical Republican rubber stamper that was unable to get a state budget, destroyed our economy and we where bleeding jobs and services for the poor. Things got so bad it's why the republicans got destroyed in congress, we now have a dem majority, a balanced budget and a governor that should be president. It's why even to this day we are able to pass tax increases despite bitching and whining by tax payers (like me 😖) because we whent so long with out tax revenue and as soon as we flipped congress and the governorship blue and implemented tax plans we fixed a lot of the problem. People get it now the only assholes that still bitch about taxes are the usual GOP dickheads that destroyed the state in the beginning.
 
So if Mandate is off the table, and so is defunding PP/social security/medicaid, what would a repeal/replace look like now?

I think someone mentioned that the grand GOP plan will essentially boil down to Medical equipment tax repeal and its looking more like it.
 
Yeah, but as I discussed several pages ago, he is not pushing a moderate to liberal economic policy. Those voters will not be as enthusiastic next time; they bought into both his racism AND false economic policy.

I've been thinking about why racists outside of the South seem to choose economics over their racism when Southerners don't, and I think it's because the South has always sucked. So the option here is "Bet on possible better circumstances in exchange for losing white supremacy", which they don't want. While the options up north are "Bet on possible white supremacy in exchange for losing your economic success."
 
I've been thinking about why racists outside of the South seem to choose economics over their racism when Southerners don't, and I think it's because the South has always sucked. So the option here is "Bet on possible better circumstances in exchange for losing white supremacy", which they don't want. While the options up north are "Bet on possible white supremacy in exchange for losing your economic success."
You're overthinking it,
They vote out of spite and hate
 

Ogodei

Member
Chris is right on point here and it stands true for 2020

But this is largely known. The Unions' grip on the white working class and ability to "whip" their votes for Democrats despite their social conservatism weakened with the unions themselves.

White people of any region have never been particularly accepting of Blacks (no Southern state ever had a law like Oregon's that banned all black people from living there), but white working class northerners have been willing to share the big tent with them for their own ends until recently.
 
So if Mandate is off the table, and so is defunding PP/social security/medicaid, what would a repeal/replace look like now?

I think someone mentioned that the grand GOP plan will essentially boil down to Medical equipment tax repeal and its looking more like it.

Yep. It's a minor tweak on which parties agree, it wouldn't change the fundamental structure of the ACA or crash the markets, and it would give Trump a slight "win" that he could then exaggerate.
 

Slizeezyc

Member
Yep. It's a minor tweak on which parties agree, it wouldn't change the fundamental structure of the ACA or crash the markets, and it would give Trump a slight "win" that he could then exaggerate.

Also you don't blow up a filibuster to do a medical device tax, so it's something you can try to get to 60 on at least.
 
"Arnold did ok"

WTF. Some of you either don't live in California or don't know wtf you're talking about. HE WAS HORRIBLE a complete typical Republican rubber stamper that was unable to get a state budget, destroyed our economy and we where bleeding jobs and services for the poor. Things got so bad it's why the republicans got destroyed in congress, we now have a dem majority, a balanced budget and a governor that should be president. It's why even to this day we are able to pass tax increases despite bitching and whining by tax payers (like me 😖) because we whent so long with out tax revenue and as soon as we flipped congress and the governorship blue and implemented tax plans we fixed a lot of the problem. People get it now the only assholes that still bitch about taxes are the usual GOP dickheads that destroyed the state in the beginning.
I think you don't know what you're talking about. Schwarzeneggar was unable to pass budgets because the budget system was so fucked to begin with. As far as I know, we were one of the only states, if not the only state, in the union to require two-thirds majority to pass budgets and taxes. That's insanity. It cripples the government's ability to handle crises like the recession. He tried to cut a little spending and raise a little tax revenue. Democrats refused to cut revenue and Republicans refused to raise taxes. And it absolutely didn't help that Schwarzeneggar had burned so many bridges in Sacramento and made an arch nemesis out of Darrell Steinberg. I wish he hadn't come in like the swaggering musclehead he was inevitably going to be, but there's not much you can do to stop popular revolt at the polls.

For his diplomatic failures as governor he's still responsible for the redistricting success that kicked out so many of those Republicans you're so sick of by getting rid of gerrymandering.

But anyway it's just funny to me people praise Jerry Brown for raising taxes and cutting spending when the former governor tried to do the same. The only difference is that one of them only has a 50% hurdle to jump over instead of 66%.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Unless the Republican Senators are total quitters, Repeal & Replace is not dead! Demand another vote before voting on any other bill!
4:36 PM · Jul 29, 2017

These people won't stop until there are literally corpses on the capitol grounds, and even then they will keep going, most likely.
 

kirblar

Member
California and Illinois are both very, very screwed up states governance-wise for reasons far deeper than a singular bad governor.
 
I wonder how long McCain can remain. At his age and in his condition, I imagine he'll deteriorate rather quickly.

Not to sound calculating, but I wouldn't be offended if he held the seat as long as possible. The longer he stays, the less time a replacement has to ingratiate him- or herself with voters before election day, making one of the AZ seats effectively open.

Oh, and I thought I'd repost some discussion points I raised last night while everyone slept. Feel free to respond to them or ignore them, whichever tickles your fancies:

I mean, it's not even a question that we can win [Orange County] because Hillary already did by almost ten points. I just wanted to get some input from Californians as to whether her victory should be interpreted as an aberration due to the peculiarity of the last election or the realization of a long-term trend. More specifically, I wonder if we can preserve the gains we made in 2016 next year, especially since Nate Silver predicts the map will look more like 2012, when we lost OC narrowly.

I actually have that question about many of the rich suburban areas Hillary flipped or nearly flipped. Would GA-06 have been so close without a vulgarian Trump on the ticket? Probably not, given that Tom Price won by 23. Rubio or Kasich would've dominated her there. We need these areas and have some confidence they'll eventually swing our way, but I wonder if 2020 might be too soon, especially if we have two "normal" candidates.

Next year's midterms will help us gauge how far we've come in solidifying support in the Sun Belt. If we perform well on a normal, Trump-less map, then I have confidence about 2020. I expect OC to be one of the primary test sites. We'll probably beat Issa because he narrowly won last time and now everyone hates him, but if we can scalp Rohrabacher or Walters (or Handel in GA or...) or at least come close, then I'll feel better about the future.

Of course, my crude analysis probably misses many nuances vis-a-vis the dynamics of midterm vs. presidential elections, the importance of particular candidates, the long-term trends of these areas, etc. I should also note that we'd been performing better in some Sun Belt areas before 2016 (e.g., Arizona, parts of Texas), so I perhaps got a bit muddled there, too. Such ignorance happens when one teaches English rather than political science. Everyone feel free to nitpick.
 
I wonder how long McCain can remain. At his age and in his condition, I imagine he'll deteriorate rather quickly.

Not to sound calculating, but I wouldn't be offended if he held the seat as long as possible. The longer he stays, the less time a replacement has to ingratiate him- or herself with voters before election day, making one of the AZ seats effectively open.
True. Leaving right before the midterms would be "best". And if he holds onto his seat while being out of DC often for treatment, it'll be hard for Republicans to accomplish anything too terrible.
 

Nydius

Member
Since there's some discussion of governorships going on, I just wanted to throw some thoughts out here.

Been catching up on the latest here in Virginia and the polls for the upcoming general election between Gillespie (R) and Northam (D) have been tightening. In two polls - Monmouth and Christopher Newport University - it's a dead heat. Some have Northam just above the margin of error.

I've been warning folks in my neighborhood not to get complacent. Virginia is not as blue as people would like to think. We're decidedly purple with the color balance skewed toward red more than blue. Outside of Northern Virginia, Richmond Metro, Charlottesville, and parts of Hampton Roads the bulk of the state is still VERY red.

Gillespie is smartly running ads that avoids bringing up his party affiliation. It doesn't mention Trump and doesn't even mention Bush as Gillespie discusses becoming an adviser to the President. Based on the ads alone, people not familiar with the race wouldn't be able to tell which party he's representing. He's also spending more on ad buys and utilizing more social media presence than Northam. Northam spent a lot of his money to win the Democratic primary while Gillespie sat on most of his cash anticipating winning Republican primary. As a result, it feels a lot like Northam has his campaign on cruise control based on anti-Trump sentiment while Gillespie is out there spending and traversing the state.

We recently just had the first of three debates and I don't think either candidate "won", largely because it became too much of a referendum on National politics rather than State politics and the questions asked about state issues were answered with typical Democrat or Republican bullet points. I hope the second debate in September is better.

Given 2016's flustercuck, I don't put too much stock in polls anymore but with the race being this close right now turnout in the major metro areas will be key. If turnout is too low, Gillespie can win - and if he wins, that puts Virginia in the same boat as the Federal Government, with a GOP majority across all branches of Government.
 

Ac30

Member
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Unless the Republican Senators are total quitters, Repeal & Replace is not dead! Demand another vote before voting on any other bill!
4:36 PM · Jul 29, 2017

These people won't stop until there are literally corpses on the capitol grounds, and even then they will keep going, most likely.

Is he trying to get you all to hit the debt ceiling

Please don't let him
 
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