• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

SALES-AGE: Why the Wii will be getting Japanese exclusives, but not Western. Part II.

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Phantast2k said:
cry moar?
The installed base will always be bigger for hd systems (PS360PC), the core game consuming demographic (20-40 males) will always support the hd systems, the ps2 will live long enough to warrant the shitty shovelware wii ports.

Well, while the PC number is kind of hard to quantify, the Wii worldwide install base will most likely overtake the PS360's userbase by the end of the year.

I'm not crying, I'm stating a fact- obviously 3rd party games will sell better on the hi def platforms when said 3rd parties put all of their top games on the hi def systems!. T
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
bloody pirate said:
what company(s)? and are you thinking RPG's?

Well, we're already seeing great stuff from MMV.

I expect Atlus to eventually get on board.

I also would think Square will have some more stuff coming.

But I really think Capcom and Sega are in the best position to give the Wii great games-they've already achieved success on the platform and a lot of their IP's and genres are good fits.
 
schuelma said:
Well, while the PC number is kind of hard to quantify, the Wii worldwide install base will most likely overtake the PS360's userbase by the end of the year.

I'm not crying, I'm stating a fact- obviously 3rd party games will sell better on the hi def platforms when said 3rd parties put all of their top games on the hi def systems!. T
Yes and the reason why they put their top games on the hd systems my last post (installed base, demographic, easy port/shovelware money. We're arguing in a circle here.
The only fluctuating factor is the installed base, still once the hd consoles hit mass market price range they should be able to compete with wii's sales numbers (outside of japan that is).
 
what was the last nintendo home platform where 3rd party's thrived on it and released a good portion of there AAA named titles similar to the ps2 and ps1... and i'm not talking about shoddy spin off's
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Phantast2k said:
Yes and the reason why they put their top games on the hd systems my last post (installed base, demographic, easy port/shovelware money. We're arguing in a circle here.
The only fluctuating factor is the installed base, still once the hd consoles hit mass market price range they should be able to compete with wii's sales numbers (outside of japan that is).


They've put their top games on HD systems because they thought the HD systems would win.

They've continued to put them on because the 360 install base is a fucking monster.

My only point, which you've not at all refuted, was to respond to your implication that there is something inherent about the Wii install base that would make those top games not sell. That's not the case because no one has really tried.
 
bloody pirate said:
what was the last nintendo home platform where 3rd party's thrived on it and released a good portion of there AAA named titles similar to the ps2 and ps1... and i'm not talking about shoddy spin off's

SNES.
 

Fuu

Formerly Alaluef (not Aladuf)
bloody pirate said:
what was the last nintendo home platform where 3rd party's thrived on it and released a good portion of there AAA named titles similar to the ps2 and ps1... and i'm not talking about shoddy spin off's
SNES.

Edit: :(
 

Hunahan

Banned
TunaLover said:
No, your point was "there´s a game because they sell" hence more games, money hat doesn´t follow that logic. If it was, then 360 rpg should be able to sell well, which not.
No. Read again.

My point was that if Media-create could determine where Japanese developers put their games, then Japanese developers wouldn't put their games on the 360. Yet they do.

My point is that games go exclusive for all sorts of reasons - financial incentive from console manufacturer ("moneyhats," if you prefer), co-op advertising, ease of development, prevelence of toolsets, track record of genre success for software sales, etc - that have nothing to do with Sales-Age cumulative hardware totals.

Panther admits this himself within the very thread he's created to try and bolster this theory - which I quoted "And no, I don't really think that devs care, in relation to their hardcore franchises."

My point is this - if Sales-Age cumulative analysis were able to show us where "major" (his words, not mine) exclusive game announcements would occur, then his examination is useful. But if he's readily admitting that they aren't, then this entire subject of discussion - which he has pushed twice in three months - is moot.

schuelma said:
I disagree. Yes, the 360 has gotten quite a lot of JRPG love, but 1- those games have clearly been in development for a long time and 2-look beyond those few games and you'll see that Japanese companies are releasing significantly more Wii exclusives the longer and longer we go. Now, its true that there haven't been any OMG MEGATONS aside from MH3, but a lot of solid stuff has been announced and I expect the uptick to continue.
I'm not here to push an agenda, or frankly to talk about Xbox360 JRPGs.

You seem to want to argue that it's possible that developers will begin to support the Wii with better, bigger titles.

That's fine.

That's an opinion.

I have no problem with an opinion or someone stating it as such.

You may be right. I don't know. Like I said, I tend to operate by the primitive philosophy of simply believing what I see, but you're free to prognosticate the market in any direction you please.

What bothers me is that there seems to be this continued insistence by Panther that there is a direct correlation between A and B, when there is no data or evidence to back it up.

It's not even a "causation does not equal correlation" problem. There is no correlation to begin with. Reality is in direct opposition to this theory, so I don't understand the point in re-examining it. Particularly if, as I pointed out, he's readily admitting himself that the people in question (producers of said major titles) simply do not care.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Hunahan said:
You seem to want to argue that it's possible that developers will begin to support the Wii with better, bigger titles.

That's fine.

That's an opinion.

.


My main point was that while the huge games haven't happened yet, you are already seeing a shift.
 

legend166

Member
bloody pirate said:
what was the last nintendo home platform where 3rd party's thrived on it and released a good portion of there AAA named titles similar to the ps2 and ps1... and i'm not talking about shoddy spin off's

The last platform they had which was in first place.

3rd party titles didn't sell like crap on the N64 + GCN because they were Nintendo consoles. They sold like crap because the hardware sold poorly, and therefore the systems got crap 3rd party games.
 

RurouniZel

Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
There are several circumstances/factors that have come to light this generation that never used to exist anymore. And all thanks to the Wii.

1) Developers (in general) are hating the fact that the Wii is blowing the competition out of the water. While this is less so true in Japan than it is in America, let's not kid ourselves. Artists are artists, and tech artists want the best tech to "achieve their artistic vision" (never mind the fact of that not guaranteeing a good game per say, but that's another topic for another thread). This never used to be a problem in the past because, while the top machine might have been underpowered compared to its direct competition (e.g. PS2 vs. Xbox and GC), it was never so underpowered in comparison that it made that big of a difference. Only now are developers (in Japan at least) starting to come to terms with the Wii's success, but they still don't like it.

2) The 360 is getting tons of JRPG love for two primary reasons:
- The PS3/360 crowd is seen as the "hardcore" crowd compared to the Wii and is far more likely to be interested in RPGs. It also goes along with the artistic vision reasoning listed above.
- As for why they're going to the 360 and not the PS3 (for now), this is because the 360 is easier to develop for. It reduces the amount of development time before they ship something out the door and at least get some of their investment back. Or at the very least, enough to tide them over while they work on a PS3 port.

3) The Wii has introduced the largest radical change to the console market since the introduction of 3-D gaming. But what made this easier to deal with than the Wii is now was the fact that it was seen by developers as progress. Developers don't see the controller as an advancement in the same way that consumers do (especially in Japan, but worldwide as well). Which leads me to my final point.

4) Developers have never, ever been as out-of-touch with the general public's idea of a fun videogame as they are now. The reason 3rd party games aren't selling even on the most popular system out (as much as they'd like anyway...) isn't because their games are bad or mediocre. Maybe not AAA, but not garbage either. No, the problem is that the taste of the people has changed, and developers have not changed with them. The only developer that's made any real effort to analyze the change and use it to their advantage is Nintendo (bet that shocked you huh?). Barring the occasional hit like Monster Hunter or Metal Gear, the only games that are selling like hot cakes that do not belong to existing franchises are Nintendo's (Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Fit, Brain Training etc.).

The Wii has sent a very powerful message to the rest of the development world. Unfortunately, they're either not hearing the call, or are just ignoring it. It's simple really. They need to evolve and change what they do, how they think, how they conceive, or they just need to deal with the fact that they will never have the kind of success that they used to. It's not that they won't be able to keep themselves afloat, they just won't grow. Nintendo has really impressed me this generation with their incredible foresight and strong market researching skills. They "got it" well before anyone else did. Correction, they're currently still the only ones who "get it".
 
legend166 said:
The last platform they had which was in first place.

3rd party titles didn't sell like crap on the N64 + GCN because they were Nintendo consoles. They sold like crap because the hardware sold poorly, and therefore the systems got crap 3rd party games.


so why do you think the wii is still getting crappy 3rd party games? why arent developers focused on it ?
 

dionysus

Yaldog
RurouniZel said:
A bunch of stuff.

We have an excellent measure of how in touch developers are with the marketplace. It is called sales. And seeing as how games are selling excellently on both HD platforms, the Wii, and portables, developers seem to be doing just fine satisfying what the market wants. The market clearly wants all types of games, and it is quite healthy in its support for almost all genres.
 

larvi

Member
That last graph title is a bit confusing. It seems to imply that the Wii is not a next gen console but the 360/PS3 are. The graphs above that indicate otherwise, i.e. the Wii is part of the next gen stats.
 
RurouniZel said:
There are several circumstances/factors that have come to light this generation that never used to exist anymore. And all thanks to the Wii.

1) Developers (in general) are hating the fact that the Wii is blowing the competition out of the water. While this is less so true in Japan than it is in America, let's not kid ourselves. Artists are artists, and tech artists want the best tech to "achieve their artistic vision" (never mind the fact of that not guaranteeing a good game per say, but that's another topic for another thread). This never used to be a problem in the past because, while the top machine might have been underpowered compared to its direct competition (e.g. PS2 vs. Xbox and GC), it was never so underpowered in comparison that it made that big of a difference. Only now are developers (in Japan at least) starting to come to terms with the Wii's success, but they still don't like it.
While I agree with the general sentiment, true artists are never limited by the medium. I reckon that publishers are the ones pressuring the studios and developers more than the people who actually make the games themselves. Unless they are fanboys, of course.
 
RurouniZel said:
4) Developers have never, ever been as out-of-touch with the general public's idea of a fun videogame as they are now. The reason 3rd party games aren't selling even on the most popular system out (as much as they'd like anyway...) isn't because their games are bad or mediocre. Maybe not AAA, but not garbage either. No, the problem is that the taste of the people has changed, and developers have not changed with them. The only developer that's made any real effort to analyze the change and use it to their advance is Nintendo (bet that shocked you huh?). Barring the occasional hit like Monster Hunter or Metal Gear, the only games that are selling like hot cakes that do not belong to existing franchises are Nintendo's (Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Fit, Brain Training etc.).

For games being developed for the Wii? yes, but for 3rd party games in general? No. The taste of the gamer demographic for the Wii is very different and you have 3rd party developers that either don't want to make games for that market, or don't know how. You're essentially asking developers who've been playing & making "core" games to suddenly develop games for gamers...that don't or never really played games. Where's their point of reference going to come from?

Now the PS3/360/PC its more your standard fare, so their games and franchises are doing a lot better
 

RurouniZel

Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
dionysus said:
We have an excellent measure of how in touch developers are with the marketplace. It is called sales. And seeing as how games are selling excellently on both HD platforms, the Wii, and portables, developers seem to be doing just fine satisfying what the market wants. The market clearly wants all types of games, and is quite healthy for almost all genres.

But how many games actually are selling well on the HD consoles. Yes GTAIV and Metal Gear Solid 4 have sold well recently, but I'm trying to look less at the performance of individual games and more so at the overall sales picture. And in overall sales, Wii software is outperforming both of the HD consoles. There are a few million sellers in the West on HD consoles, but everything else is falling extremely below par.
 

D.Lo

Member
Phantast2k said:
The only fluctuating factor is the installed base, still once the hd consoles hit mass market price range they should be able to compete with wii's sales numbers (outside of japan that is).
The old 'wait until...' trick hey?

And what if, as all evidence and history suggests, the HD consoles never compete with the Wii's sales numbers?

I saw a crazy catalogue in Australia yesterday (Big W): Wii $388, Xbox 360 Arcade $278. Even adding in a hard drive, the 360 is cheaper then the Wii already.
 
bloody pirate said:
so why do you think the wii is still getting crappy 3rd party games? why arent developers focused on it ?

Simple: Long development times+Assumption that the Wii would follow suit with N64/GCN market share= Slow response by many major companies.
 
Eh, I almost dont want them. Hardcore gaming is trite now. Still check out the occassional core game, but the industry progressed to the point where its product asks for too much commitment from the player. Nintendo's new focus only benefits me in that return to form of pick up and play gaming like warioware and such.
 
RurouniZel said:
But how many games actually are selling well on the HD consoles. Yes GTAIV and Metal Gear Solid 4 have sold well recently, but I'm trying to look less at the performance of individual games and more so at the overall sales picture. And in overall sales, Wii software is outperforming both of the HD consoles. There are a few million sellers in the West on HD consoles, but everything else is falling extremely below par.

Quite a lot. The 3rd Party sales on the 360 have been consistently good. The "core' gamer isn't going anywhere. The market is expanding not shifting. This means the library of games gets more diverse, not just shifting everything to the Nintendo "Wii [insert phrase here]" mentality.
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
360 is getting a bunch of B rate JRPGs and wannabe FF/DQ clones. That and ToV. Wii should catch up in department later this year but the king was already crowned.

The DS is the home of the JRPG. The PSP gets the sloppy seconds. It's a fight for second place now.
 
schuelma said:
They've put their top games on HD systems because they thought the HD systems would win.

They've continued to put them on because the 360 install base is a fucking monster.

My only point, which you've not at all refuted, was to respond to your implication that there is something inherent about the Wii install base that would make those top games not sell. That's not the case because no one has really tried.
and no one ever will. Because it's a waste of money: they'd have clearly visible opportunity costs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost) due to the said demographic differences and differences in installed base and the amount of cheap ass shovel-shit games that sell loads on the wii. Any kind of market analysis will show more probability for higher sales of top titles (established franchises) on the hd systems.
.....again, we're arguing in circles.
Also the installed base of hd systems will never be threatened by the wii (due to inclusion of the pc and due to the fact that the hd consoles will get more affordable). And I'm not saying the wii will stop selling I'm just saying that the hd consoles will eventually start to sell more than they do now.

@op:
- you should include the pc into your ps360 estimations (most of the big third party titles are also being released on pc)
- you should clearly distinguish between japanes ww titles (action, fighting, racing, sports) and japanese jp titles (jrpgs, gundam, all kinds of sillyness and so on). The ww titles will probably also never go wii's way.

/off to bed.
 
bloody pirate said:
so why do you think the wii is still getting crappy 3rd party games? why arent developers focused on it ?

Well, most of the bad 3rd party games are geared towards kids and families, and all kid-friendly 3rd party games, no matter the system, are just pure Superman 64/Atari ET bad. They never get top tier devs or tons to cash to ensure quality.

Combine the fact that still the majority of the Wii players aren't of the "hardcore" demographics, you got a major reinforcing cycle of low tier developers putting bad games with themes that the "hardcore" wouldn't touch with a 1 billion miles long pole.
 

TunaLover

Member
Panther I think theres a problen, Wii GET western 3rd party exclusives but they are shit, why? because there no real effort to push decent game (talent if you want), I want make this clear, its not a budget problem is a problem of develoment philosophies, even mindset. What a western 3rd party read budget it automatic think minigame shovelware, japanese can make great games with the same budget, that´s why we care more about japanese exclusives, because what a small-mid japanese developer can make with a low budget, is almost comparable to what a big party can make with big budget (quality wise). Marvelous is a excellent example.
 

dionysus

Yaldog
RurouniZel said:
But how many games actually are selling well on the HD consoles. Yes GTAIV and Metal Gear Solid 4 have sold well recently, but I'm trying to look less at the performance of individual games and more so at the overall sales picture. And in overall sales, Wii software is outperforming both of the HD consoles. There are a few million sellers in the West on HD consoles, but everything else is falling extremely below par.

Well, when looking at smaller games, it is dificult to determine health because message board posters are not privy to details such as development budget, sales, profitability, and internal expectations. We really only have data for the huge releases.

Moreover, I could say the same thing about the Wii. A few games sell a majority of the software on the Wii as well.

I think we can get a good indication of the health of HD developers by looking at secondary indicators of success. Publishers are agressively buying independent developers. It appears that most gaming companies are aggressively hiring. We here about publishers opening new offices and teams every month. (Yes their have been a few failures, but I think most would agree that the industry is very healthy.) Revenues are up across the board, even though profit is often trailing. (But this is true for most cases of expansion in many industries.) If HD development was struggling, I don't think these secondary indicators would pain the rosy picture they paint right now.

Edit. Also, sorry for being inflammatory in my quote by calling your post a bunch of junk. That was a very civil response and I feel bad.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Phantast2k said:
and no one ever will. Because it's a waste of money: they'd have clearly visible opportunity costs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost) due to the said demographic differences and differences in installed base and the amount of cheap ass shovel-shit games that sell loads on the wii. Any kind of market analysis will show more probability for higher sales of top titles (established franchises) on the hd systems.
.

My entire point is you have absolutely ZERO PROOF that it would be a "waste of money"

All you have are the typical stereotypes about the Wii's install base. That's all you have. Period.

You mention all the "cheap ass shovel shit games that sell loads" and completely ignore the core games that sell loads as well.
 

ThatObviousUser

ὁ αἴσχιστος παῖς εἶ
bloody pirate said:
so why do you think the wii is still getting crappy 3rd party games? why arent developers focused on it ?

They're deluding themselves into thinking their software won't sell using the same genius reasoning that's been perpetrated on the Internet and even by some GAFers.

-Only Nintendo software sells
-Only casual games sell
-Only Japanese games sell
-Only minigames sell
-Etc.

When all of these have been proven to be absolutely wrong. Eventually they will reach a point of massive least returns where ignoring the Wii will cost much more money than otherwise.

schuelma said:
You mention all the "cheap ass shovel shit games that sell loads" and completely ignore the core games that sell loads as well.

Not only that but only a sliver of "cheap ass shovel shit games" have actually "sold loads". The only thing you could really put in that category it Carnival Games.
 
If Western devlopers won't compete on Wii, they will have no future because the future is Wii. I say this for two reasons. One, most likely, SONY and Microsoft will co-opt Nintendo's strategy next-generation anyway and Western developers will have to adapt or retreat to the PC. Or two, continue expensive development for systems which are heading nowhere with consumers and only cater to very narrow tastes. And those are fair statements, I think, unless anyone can prove otherwise.
 

RurouniZel

Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
dionysus said:
Well, when looking at smaller games, it is dificult to determine health because message board posters are not privy to details such as development budget, sales, profitability, and internal expectations. We really only have data for the huge releases.

Moreover, I could say the same thing about the Wii. A few games sell a majority of the software on the Wii as well.

I think we can get a good indication of the health of HD developers by looking at secondary indicators of success. Publishers are agressively buying independent developers. It appears that most gaming companies are aggressively hiring. We here about publishers opening new offices and teams every month. (Yes their have been a few failures, but I think most would agree that the industry is very healthy.) Revenues are up across the board, even though profit is often trailing. (But this is true for most cases of expansion in many industries.) If HD development was struggling, I don't think these secondary indicators would pain the rosy picture they paint right now.

Now here's an interesting topic of debate. You see this as a sign of growth and prosperity.

I see this as a sign of desperation.

I see this as western developers becoming desperate to get their hands on something new because what they're currently doing isn't working. I've been working in corporate America for some time now, and I've learned that 9 times out of 10, when a company is aggressively hiring and they're not enjoying over-the-top success ala GTAIV, they're probably also aggressively firing as well. Maybe not all at once, but slowly eliminating the people who've been there and are making too much money doing what they do and aren't bringing in the success they once did. When this happens, you lay off many of those people and hire new people with fresh ideas at lower salaries in the hopes that it'll help you bring the profits back into the growth area.

This is just an opinion based on my own experience mind. Not an attempt to spread FUD or whatever, just throwing it out there in case no one's considered the possibility.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
Phantast2k said:
The western devs/pubs will not give a shit since even in 09 their projections will still show that PC/PS3/360 software still sells way better than non-nintendo software on the wii.
Phantast2k said:
cry moar?
The installed base will always be bigger for hd systems (PS360PC), the core game consuming demographic (20-40 males) will always support the hd systems, the ps2 will live long enough to warrant the shitty shovelware wii ports (= easy money for devs/pubs).
Your logic baffles me. Have you not been paying attention to sales?


Phantast2k said:
Yes and the reason why they put their top games on the hd systems my last post (installed base, demographic, easy port/shovelware money. We're arguing in a circle here.
The only fluctuating factor is the installed base, still once the hd consoles hit mass market price range they should be able to compete with wii's sales numbers (outside of japan that is).
Right, because lots of consoles have sold as well as the Wii before. Wait, no...

Phantast2k said:
and no one ever will. Because it's a waste of money: they'd have clearly visible opportunity costs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost) due to the said demographic differences and differences in installed base and the amount of cheap ass shovel-shit games that sell loads on the wii. Any kind of market analysis will show more probability for higher sales of top titles (established franchises) on the hd systems.
.....again, we're arguing in circles.
Also the installed base of hd systems will never be threatened by the wii (due to inclusion of the pc and due to the fact that the hd consoles will get more affordable). And I'm not saying the wii will stop selling I'm just saying that the hd consoles will eventually start to sell more than they do now.

@op:
- you should include the pc into your ps360 estimations (most of the big third party titles are also being released on pc)
- you should clearly distinguish between japanes ww titles (action, fighting, racing, sports) and japanese jp titles (jrpgs, gundam, all kinds of sillyness and so on). The ww titles will probably also never go wii's way.

/off to bed.
At this point, you kinda just spiral into a bunch of nonsense, so it probably was a good call to get to bed.
 
RurouniZel said:
But how many games actually are selling well on the HD consoles. Yes GTAIV and Metal Gear Solid 4 have sold well recently, but I'm trying to look less at the performance of individual games and more so at the overall sales picture. And in overall sales, Wii software is outperforming both of the HD consoles. There are a few million sellers in the West on HD consoles, but everything else is falling extremely below par.

This is an excellent point. Looking at the data, there are A LOT of good-quliaty games on the HD systems which have bombed. A lot. Especially on the PS3. The blockbusters sell.
 
RurouniZel said:
2) The 360 is getting tons of JRPG love for two primary reasons:
- The PS3/360 crowd is seen as the "hardcore" crowd compared to the Wii and is far more likely to be interested in RPGs. It also goes along with the artistic vision reasoning listed above.
- As for why they're going to the 360 and not the PS3 (for now), this is because the 360 is easier to develop for. It reduces the amount of development time before they ship something out the door and at least get some of their investment back. Or at the very least, enough to tide them over while they work on a PS3 port.

I doubt that. I would say the 360 is getting JRPG love because of moneyhats and thats about it.
 
Honestly I think a lot of devs have lost the plot this generation. There's so much money to be made of Wii, yet nearly all they're making for it are Babiez, Dogz, shitty spin-offs or ports, or in some very rare instances, solid new IP that fail to be advertised to the masses (think Boom Blox or Zack and Wiki).

It's as if 3rd parties want to fail.
 

Rhindle

Member
I think it's overly simplistic to think that publishers just look at installed base numbers when deciding where to go with their games. They are going to make their decisions on a case-by-case basis, depending on where they think there's a better audience for a particular game.

For Japanese developers, games that are primarily targeted at the Japanese market will no doubt predominently go to the Wii. For games targeted at the global market, their analysis is going to be the same as that of a Western publisher. "Core" games with Western appeal will continue to be PS360. More casual stuff (KHIII is a good example) will go to Wii.

Wetsern publishers are still trying to figure out what will sell on the Wii, apart from minigame collections. You'll see more experimentation (like EA's new sports line), but for the most part they will play it safe with major franchises.
 
Top Bottom