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[Thunder Monkey]

Wii eating the majority of JP support was a given after 2007... the more interesting question I think is if giving Wii their choice support could result in Japanese developers and publishers retaking the lead in worldwide game R&D again? Is the west positioning themselves to be swept over again, like in the 1980s?

I've wondered that myself.

It almost seems inevitable given how high the Wii is likely to fly, and how averse American devs seem about the platform.

 

[PantherLotus]

It is specifically because of a lack of data that I made that assumption. The biggest European developer is Ubisoft, right? That's about a western as you get with their few big time money making exclusives, combined with their massive pool of shovelware shit. I think that could be considered Western, without question. Have they changed the way they approach the Wii, despite assurances otherwise? They kinda tried with Red Steel and RRR, but since then its been utter shit.*

But, point taken. Including UK+EU in the analysis would be wonderful, but they just don't have the same reliable (regular) sales data to show trends.



*Red Steel 2. Would that count as a "major exclusive?" I don't fuckin think so.

 

[Jocchan]

Dev's and ever hardware manufacturer's don't get to decide where gaming goes. The consumers spending money do.

Exactly. Publishers can oppose all they want, but they will just end up losing money if the consumers don't agree with them.
What is stopping publishers from greenlighting their big guns on Wii, actually, is mostly stigma. So, unless all stigmas are publicly and noticeably shattered once and for all, you won't see shit announced by them.

*Red Steel 2. Would that count as a "major exclusive?" I don't fuckin think so.

More like "major vaporware", amirite?

 

[Neo C.]

It's only a matter of time to see Nintendo starting to publish and moneyhat more western developments. We have seen their support in the case of Fatal Frame, so you would think they would support some promising western studios. They are aware of the importance of a big diversity in Wii's library, so more publishing would be logical. It's not like they won't use their profits.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

It's only a matter of time to see Nintendo starting to publish and moneyhat more western developments. We have seen their support in the case of Fatal Frame, so you would think they would support some promising western studios. They are aware of the importance of a big diversity in Wii's library, so more publishing would be logical. It's not like they won't use their profits.

Knowing Nintendo, I think they would be more likely to actually buy out Western independent devs that fit the 'Nintendo philosophy'. A couple more Wii only releases like Lost Winds and I'd suspect Frontier would be a good fit.

 

[PantherLotus]

Exactly. Publishers can oppose all they want, but they will just end up losing money if the consumers don't agree with them.

What is stopping publishers from greenlighting their big guns on Wii, actually, is mostly stigma. So, unless all stigmas are publicly and noticeably shattered once and for all, you won't see shit announced by them.

I actually don't think it's stigma, so much as general success in the current model of PS360 multi port releases. There's no incentive to do otherwise, at least until investors see the whole 2-3 million Wii consoles selling per month worldwide thing. And only then when the gulf becomes too large to ignore. I would have thought that point started last month. I don't think we'll see a reaction before the end of the generation.

Speaking of which, somebody made an EXCELLENT point about how this really sets up for the next generation. I would point to the N64/PSX-->GC/PS2 transition period as an example. N64 started out quite well with 3rd parties, honestly. Interesting to see what happened, though.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

*Red Steel 2. Would that count as a "major exclusive?" I don't fuckin think so.

Depends on how they do it. I wouldn't count "Saints Row 2" as a major exclusive (if it was), even though it kinda would be.

 

[norinrad21]

oh 3rd parties.........in Japan its sink or swim and soon will be the same in the west

 

[Shin Johnpv]

Finally a coherent point!

Unfortunately, I'm not sure how deep of a point it is. I mean, what happens when pubs decide what to invest in? What happens when big budget games ($20 mill +) are made for generally niche audiences and they sell a million copies, but low budget games (under $10 mill) sell a few hundred thousand? What would happen if they put a big budget game on the low budget system?

So yeah, while the consumer eventually votes with his or her dollar, that dollar will be spent on whatever is offered. If all that is offered is high budget games on high budget systems, and low budget games on low budget systems, eventually there will be a disconnect between the consumer and the publisher. But that would take so long as to be completely immeasurable.

Its an interesting question and I've been trying to come up with a good answer for you, I unfortunately have not. I will just say that I think that the consumer's power, and voting dollar is seen much earlier than people, and even devs want to admit, think it is seen. I hope that makes sense, its late here and its been a long day.

I can only relate it to this, look at cars. My brother is a car dealer, and due to the insane cost of gas, they can not give SUVs or Big Trucks away right now. Now mind you this really only changed in the last 6 months. Everyone wants a small car again.

I think the consumer can react much faster than any developer can. The truly best developers though learn to read when the winds of change are coming and adapt.

The rigid reed snaps and dies in the wind, while the flexible one bends and lives on.

 

[Neo C.]

Knowing Nintendo, I think they would be more likely to actually buy out Western independent devs that fit the 'Nintendo philosophy'. A couple more Wii only releases like Lost Winds and I'd suspect Frontier would be a good fit.

They could, though Iwata doesn't want Nintendo to get much bigger than now. The last buy out was Monolith and Iwata's statement sounds like it was rather an exception of their general business practice than the rule.
On the other hand, I agree they should invest more in the western sphere. It would be nice to see an european studio as a Nintendo developer again.

 

[Jocchan]

I actually don't think it's stigma, so much as general success in the current model of PS360 multi port releases. There's no incentive to do otherwise, at least until investors see the whole 2-3 million Wii consoles selling per month worldwide thing. And only then when the gulf becomes too large to ignore. I would have thought that point started last month. I don't think we'll see a reaction before the end of the generation.

Actually, I do think it is. The way the Wii demographics is seen by publishers is a stigma resulting from the way the Wii itself was marketed by Nintendo, and it's no different from "Xbox is a shooter box" and "the PSP has no games".
It doesn't matter how much the Wii userbase grows: unless third parties start noticing that soccer moms have "hardcore" kids too (and this could only happen with people buying in droves some big third party "hardcore" title no one is producing) nothing will change. Or at least I doubt it will happen.

Speaking of which, somebody made an EXCELLENT point about how this really sets up for the next generation. I would point to the N64/PSX-->GC/PS2 transition period as an example. N64 started out quite well with 3rd parties, honestly. Interesting to see what happened, though.

I agree, I'm really curious about the next generation. I wouldn't say the N64 started out quite well with third parties, though. They were gone long before the machine came out.

 

[Shin Johnpv]

Speaking of which, somebody made an EXCELLENT point about how this really sets up for the next generation. I would point to the N64/PSX-->GC/PS2 transition period as an example. N64 started out quite well with 3rd parties, honestly. Interesting to see what happened, though.

I really do think sales kind of run in cycles. You get 2 generations. Specially something like this where there are is a changing of the guards so to speak. You had NES - SNES, PS - PS2, and its going to be Wii - Wii 2. I also really think this is where quite a few of the 3rd parties out there are hurting themselves. Its not this generation thats all this crap shovelware is going to come back and bite them on the ass. Its next gen, when if Nintendo doesn't do any huge major screw up like carts instead of CDs, will continue their market leadership. Its next gen when all the expanded market of this gen goes "Ohhh don't buy anything from "Insert developer who released nothing but shit on the wii here" their games suck!".

There's quite a few good developers and publishers out there who are making insanely shitty names for themselves in regards to the Wii expanded market. Next gen when they've finally woken up and start to put out some AAA games, its going to be 10x harder for them to win over the market.

They create self fulfilling prophecies for themselves. If they sit there and go only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo consoles, there for put no budget into this, well then only Nintendo games will sell on Nintendo consoles cause only they are putting a budget into either dev or marketing.

Its like the guy who is constantly accusing his GF of cheating, or is always going is everything ok? are you mad? is everything fine? Keep it up and eventually something is going to be wrong cause you're making it so.

 

[Tabris]

Two words for you. Final. Fantasy.

That's all that matters.

 

[Jocchan]

Two words for you. Final. Fantasy.

That's all that matters.

Nice market analysis as always. Keep up with the good work

 

[PantherLotus]

Its an interesting question and I've been trying to come up with a good answer for you, I unfortunately have not. I will just say that I think that the consumer's power, and voting dollar is seen much earlier than people, and even devs want to admit, think it is seen. I hope that makes sense, its late here and its been a long day.

I can only relate it to this, look at cars. My brother is a car dealer, and due to the insane cost of gas, they can not give SUVs or Big Trucks away right now. Now mind you this really only changed in the last 6 months. Everyone wants a small car again.

I think the consumer can react much faster than any developer can. The truly best developers though learn to read when the winds of change are coming and adapt.

The rigid reed snaps and dies in the wind, while the flexible one bends and lives on.

Good post.

What I would say to this, and to noinrad above you, is that the 3rd parties clearly ARE NOT suffering right now. I like the Japanese/American car comparison, but it doesn't translate, because Western devs aren't hemorrhaging money while insisting on ignoring the Wii.

I'm suggesting that the current model is not bad enough for 3rd parties to attempt to change. Combine that with console demographics, brand recognition, multiple platforms to publish the same basic content, and we get something far harder to back out of.

If the Wii had been several times more powerful, are we having this discussion? If the Wii had a $299 price point but had .75x the power of the 360, is there any question what Western devs would be doing right now? I think Nintendo isolating itself on a hardware island was catastrophic in terms of hoping to get 3rd party ports.

If one wants to make the HD = expensive argument, which is fine, then surely they'd acknowledge that porting makes sense. And if Nintendo had been able to put just enough power in there to justify an easy downgraded port, then it would have come down to original content and first party software.

Point? None of that happened. 3rd parties aren't losing money, they're making shit tons of it. Nintendo isn't losing money, so they don't particularly care. MS is in great shape for only its second console and is in an excellent position for next generation. Sony should be worried. The conclusion is that where one is making money, don't expect a huge change unless all signs point to that money drying up. ie, the GC-->Wii transition.

 

[PantherLotus]

Two words for you. Final. Fantasy.

That's all that matters.

Actually, yeah. But not nearly as engaging as a page full of charts.

 

[jarrod]

Two words for you. Final. Fantasy.

That's all that matters.

In Japan? That's 3rd place after DQ and (now) MH. <3 <3

 

[Neo C.]

What I would say to this, and to noinrad above you, is that the 3rd parties clearly ARE NOT suffering right now. I like the Japanese/American car comparison, but it doesn't translate, because Western devs aren't hemorrhaging money while insisting on ignoring the Wii.

I'm suggesting that the current model is not bad enough for 3rd parties to attempt to change. Combine that with console demographics, brand recognition, multiple platforms to publish the same basic content, and we get something far harder to back out of.
[...]
Point? None of that happened. 3rd parties aren't losing money, they're making shit tons of it. Nintendo isn't losing money, so they don't particularly care. MS is in great shape for only its second console and is in an excellent position for next generation. Sony should be worried. The conclusion is that where one is making money, don't expect a huge change unless all signs point to that money drying up. ie, the GC-->Wii transition.

I'm sure investors aren't happy to see a shrinking rate of profit. Just making money doesn't mean they have invested the money as good as last gen. Just like the american car builders who invested tons of money in building SUVs and other kind of big cars while economic cars like the Prius is selling like hotcake and their rate of profit by investing in big cars is shrinking.
While I agree with Shin Johnpv that the real shift to small cars only happened a few months ago, the trend already started long before this year.

 

[Parl]

What's ironic is that Wii only sells "really well" in Japan, but sells amazingly in most of the west.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Two words for you. Final. Fantasy.

That's all that matters.

Some Wii plastic thing will probably crush it, 3 years from now.

 

[legend166]

I hope you are wrong. There is no way I'd like to see game consoles revert back to technology of yesterday just cause it will make certan game companies more money. If you own a Wii and nothing else you must be happy with what that platform provides and shouldn't really care about missing out on RE, GTAs, and Final Fantasies. Those franchises were never really Nintendo staples to begin with, Mario is/was/always will be.

Right now things are pretty balanced software wise. 360 and PS3 offer more cutting edge graphical show pieces titles that focus more on traditional forms of control for higher costs and the Wii pushes the more family oriented titles with a different way of control for a lower cost. There is room for BOTH. I think people have forgotten the old days when Nintendo ruled the industry. Needless to say that 3rd parties did NOT think things were so great and that explains why so many of them jumped ship when they had an opportunity to do so.

Don't let blind love for Nintendo fool you into believing that they are what is best for the industry as a whole. They are looking out for just one thing, Nintendo. All companies do, which is why it is important that as many companies as possible have as many ways as possible to create their gaming visions. One of the BEST things about the industry currently is that both 3rd parties and Nintendo have ways to make some decent money and positive impact. That is the way it should be and I wouldn't have it any other way. I do not think that Nintendo getting all major 3rd party titles would be a good thing. Be happy for Nintendo's success, but their success does not mean that 3rd parties must follow them to the Wii.

The Dark One

Yes, I've finally got a chance to use it!

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this forum is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.


Seriously though, you didn't actually respond to anything I wrote.

 

[plufim]

Surely this analysis falls down if a western developer is making a game of a genre that is also popular in japan?

 

[vanguardian1]

Two words for you. Final. Fantasy.

That's all that matters.

If XIII is anything like XII, you can

Spoiler

keep that junk for yourself. Worst FF title ever. And that's considering Mystic Quest.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Surely this analysis falls down if a western developer is making a game of a genre that is also popular in japan?

:lol

That was awesome!

 

[Haunted]

Wii + PC = Western and Eastern fusion, for half the price. Why buy extra consoles when you have to do work on the PC anyway?

That's exactly what I've been doing this gen.

 

[Haunted]

Andrex, are youuuu eteric rice?

Remember that talk we had about Crushed's new account here? Perm'd as well.

 

[Pachael]

Ubisoft to the rescue!

 

[Neomoto]

I can see 3rd parties just taking Wii in the multiplatform side of things instead of leaving it out like they do now mostly.

You can see it with Activision and EA lately. Guitar Hero III, Guitar Hero: Aerosmith, Guitar Hero World Tour, Call of Duty World at War, Rock Band (and perhaps Skate It) all have one thing in common. They are big games (arguable Skate It also or not), and aside from Rock Band the versions are basicly the same as on the PS3 / Xbox360 and made by a good development team. Apparently EA has also made heavy efforts with the multiplatform sports games Madden, Fifa, Tiger Woods etc for Wii.

They are not exclusive games, but they are all big games from the 2 biggest 3rd parties in the world.

I think a couple of big western 3rd party publishers are starting to see that they need to take action. They can't leave out the Wii. This thread doesn't mention Europe but that is a big market as well, it's not just America that's important for them (unless we're talking about Madden). The Wii is only selling more and more and it has proven to be a enormous software selling machine. There where lately even a couple of examples of true 3rd party successes on Wii. I know GH III has been mentioned alot but the fact still stands that the Wii version holds a LOT of the total Guitar Hero III units sold, and actually outsold the xbox360 version that already had a player base with GH II. Because of that succes Activision put there other games on it also that are coming (see above), and most likely got EA to release Rock Band on it too.

So I think that while it's would be perhaps true that companies won't start big budget high profile exclusive games for the Wii, they will also make a Wii version of these big games from xbox360/ps3 more and more from now on.

 

[Atreides]

Good post.

What I would say to this, and to noinrad above you, is that the 3rd parties clearly ARE NOT suffering right now. I like the Japanese/American car comparison, but it doesn't translate, because Western devs aren't hemorrhaging money while insisting on ignoring the Wii.

Are you sure? Some western publishers earned money, but western publishers as a whole lost money last fiscal year (I would link you the thread about that, but the search in GAF doesn't work for me right now).

 

[Attack You]

If the Wii had been several times more powerful, are we having this discussion? If the Wii had a $299 price point but had .75x the power of the 360, is there any question what Western devs would be doing right now? I think Nintendo isolating itself on a hardware island was catastrophic in terms of hoping to get 3rd party ports.

If one wants to make the HD = expensive argument, which is fine, then surely they'd acknowledge that porting makes sense. And if Nintendo had been able to put just enough power in there to justify an easy downgraded port, then it would have come down to original content and first party software.

I've always had the impression that Nintendo designed the Wii to deter half-assed ports and force more products from 3rd parties that were unique to the platform. The controller alone suggests that theory. Kinda sneaky though, because that eliminated a lot of competition in the Wii software market that would've been there if more ports jobs from the PS3/360 were possible. If I were a developer focused on Wii software -- like, oh, Nintendo -- I'd be annoyed that games not even really intended for the platform were eating up a lot of the marketshare.

After the past couple of generations, it finally sunk in with Nintendo that they could no longer take 3rd-party support for granted no matter how much they try to look out for them. There's a lot more I'd like to say here, but I have to be somewhere shortly.

 

[charlequin]

Honestly, the basic idea here is incredibly simple:

• Devs have decided to treat "HD" as a platform, rather than PS3 and 360 as separate platforms, for essentially all non-moneyhatted projects.
• The HD platform is a bust in Japan; the Wii is outselling it by like 5:1.
• The HD platform is equivalent to a fairly successful second console in the US; it's outsold month-to-month by a smaller margin and has a pretty big install base.

In the latter case, it's easy to look at "tiebreakers" ("artistic vision," tie ratio, demographics, etc.) and plan high-profile titles for the "HD platform," ignoring Wii's success; in the former case, it's not going to be nearly as easy. This has been pretty obvious for a few months now and I'm honestly a little surprised that people are arguing it.

3. The best debate and response I'm seeing is whether or not Japanese devs really will deliver based on hardware sales in Japan. I think it seems obvious that things would change, but nothing has happened yet.

There are pieces of evidence that suggest the beginnings of a change, which is very different from the situation in the West (where things, honestly, look even worse now than they did at launch.) ToS:KoR is one of the stronger bellwethers we've seen in terms of third-party Wii success in Japan.

It's only a matter of time to see Nintendo starting to publish and moneyhat more western developments.

It is? Nintendo has been a real maverick with their most valuable asset (their basic, fundamental business model) this generation but they make up for it by being stingy and conservative as fuck with everything else. I've been saying for a while that economic realities are such that Nintendo could easily make even more money by tipping key third-parties into development with well-placed moneyhats, but it really seems like Nintendo doesn't consider the miniscule risk involved to be worthwhile. (That, or there really isn't anyone at the company who knows jack about third-party relations.)

I'm sure investors aren't happy to see a shrinking rate of profit. Just making money doesn't mean they have invested the money as good as last gen.

In the west, I really don't think it's a problem: sales that are lower but predictable (it's probably easier to hit a certain minimum performance on certain genres on PS360 now than it was last generation) are superior to a risky chance of much higher or much lower sales.

In Japan, the situation is a little different: every option is crappy in at least one major way, which means that the benefits of developing for Wii have more of a chance to be come out.

 

[mollipen]

If XIII is anything like XII, you can

Spoiler

keep that junk for yourself. Worst FF title ever. And that's considering Mystic Quest.

Funny, XII was what got me to actually believe JRPGs might still have a chance of being worth playing.

 

[PantherLotus]

charlequin: you nailed it. the first bit was exactly what I'm saying. I appreciate your eloquence.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The installed base will always be bigger for hd systems (PS360PC)

How are you measuring the size of the PC gaming userbase?

Why buy extra consoles when you have to do work on the PC anyway?

Most of the stuff I do on PC doesn't require fast processors or recent 3D hardware.

This is NOT about hardware sales. Despite the fact that the Wii sells tons of hardware to this day the best selling games are ones that are created by Nintendo themselves. How is that supposed to motivate Ubi, or EA, or Capcom to produce Wii exclusives?

It may be hard to compete with Nintendo, but it's impossible to compete with Nintendo if you don't try.

Two words for you. Final. Fantasy.

That's all that matters.

 

[goomba]

I think we will see a split. Western publishers will increase Wii support BUT its wont be the type of games that the 360/PS3 will/would have seen, but it wont be minigame fests either.

Western devs need to innovate, rather than continuing their obession with "new gen, new coat of paint, same gameplay " attitude, otherwise Japanese games are going to dominate the charts worldwide.

 

[Father_Brain]

Two words for you. Final. Fantasy.

That's all that matters.

FFXIII will cause a massive bump in PS3 sales, no doubt... but in all likelihood, a bump is all it will be.

 

[Pellham]

Two words for you. Final. Fantasy.

That's all that matters.

:lol such delusion.

 

[Neo C.]

It is? Nintendo has been a real maverick with their most valuable asset (their basic, fundamental business model) this generation but they make up for it by being stingy and conservative as fuck with everything else. I've been saying for a while that economic realities are such that Nintendo could easily make even more money by tipping key third-parties into development with well-placed moneyhats, but it really seems like Nintendo doesn't consider the miniscule risk involved to be worthwhile. (That, or there really isn't anyone at the company who knows jack about third-party relations.)

While I agree that Nintendo is quite conservative when it comes to financials, they are still a company and are trying to increase their influences. In the last few years, they didn't expand much in terms of inhouse game development except the monolith buy out. So which are the growing departements? Obviously the marketing groups, IIRC these groups are getting much bigger budgets than before. And as for NOE, they have published more games from third parties than before (mostly Capcom, SE, and Atlus).

I agree that they won't copy the moneyhats practices of Sony or Microsoft, though I can imagine an (even) bigger outside development of their franchises.

In the west, I really don't think it's a problem: sales that are lower but predictable (it's probably easier to hit a certain minimum performance on certain genres on PS360 now than it was last generation) are superior to a risky chance of much higher or much lower sales.

It isn't a problem now, but I'm sure investors will frequently force them to do something against the shrinking rate of profit. That doesn't necessarily mean the western devs would all start to develop for the Wii, cut the budget and team size could be the alternatives.

 

[charlequin]

It may be hard to compete with Nintendo, but it's impossible to compete with Nintendo if you don't try.

More importantly, you're still competing with Nintendo software even if you publish on a different console.

 

[Askia47]

Such a shame for HD gaming, perhaps it will fare better during the next console war.

Hopefully Japanese Devs come out with excellent games for Wii.

 

[charlequin]

While I agree that Nintendo is quite conservative when it comes to financials, they are still a company and are trying to increase their influences.

Sure, but I don't really see third-party relations being a meaningful area of expansion for them right now. It's a lot like the VC situation -- there's very little pressure to actually do more than a mediocre job here simply because the console is still actually selling out and it doesn't actually improve their immediate bottom line that much.

It isn't a problem now, but I'm sure investors will frequently force them to do something against the shrinking rate of profit.

Only when it gets significant enough. I don't think there's any chance that any already-successful Western developers will feel a pinch significant enough to change their behavior this generation; the HD market is there and is rewarding many types of titles with very good sales. Many of the moves to offset the greater cost of HD development at the expense of screwing consumers are already in place (see: $60 games and DLC.)

 

[Dalthien]

More importantly, you're still competing with Nintendo software even if you publish on a different console.

I've been saying this for a while - it's nice to see someone else understands it as well. Even if many pubs still don't grasp it yet. It was easy to avoid Nintendo when they had a tiny piece of the market with the Gamecube, but when they are the market-leaders (as they are with Wii/DS), then it doesn't matter where you publish, you are still competing with Nintendo software for your sale.

Sure, but I don't really see third-party relations being a meaningful area of expansion for them right now. It's a lot like the VC situation -- there's very little pressure to actually do more than a mediocre job here simply because the console is still actually selling out and it doesn't actually improve their immediate bottom line that much.

This kind of goes against your earlier comments where you took Nintendo to task for leaving easy money on the table by not moneyhatting more. But I agree with your latter comments. Making more efforts to bring 3rd-parties aboard wouldn't have helped Nintendo sell one extra piece of hardware up to this point. And it would have cost them a fair bit of money, as well as manpower that Nintendo believes can serve them better in other ways. In fact, up to this point, spending significant amounts of money on courting 3rd-parties would have undoubtedly lost Nintendo software sales. If more people were buying Wiis for 3rd-party reasons, a significant percentage of these would be people who have little interest in Nintendo software. As it stands now, Nintendo has sold most of their hardware to people who have a genuine interest in Nintendo-type software, which allows Nintendo to maximize their own software sales. And that is Nintendo's focus, and the vast bulk of their profits.

Nintendo will make some strategic efforts here and there to court 3rd-parties where they feel confident that the time and money will be worthwhile to their bottom line. But their focus is on selling their own software. They feel that their work towards 3rd-parties is mostly centered in the area of building up a sizable base of customers for 3rd-parties to sell to. But it is up to 3rd-parties to make the efforts to sell to that base of customers that Nintendo builds for them. Nintendo's primary focus is (correctly, I believe) on selling their own software. That's why they build their hardware based on their own software needs - not based around what they feel 3rd-parties might want. Nintendo would like to have 3rd-parties jump on board, but not at a significant cost of money or manpower to Nintendo. In general, they believe that such money or manpower can be more effectively used on their own efforts.

Only when it gets significant enough. I don't think there's any chance that any already-successful Western developers will feel a pinch significant enough to change their behavior this generation; the HD market is there and is rewarding many types of titles with very good sales. Many of the moves to offset the greater cost of HD development at the expense of screwing consumers are already in place (see: $60 games and DLC.)

I think many western pubs are definitely feeling the pinch. Some (such as Activision and Ubisoft) are doing very well, but many other western pubs have been showing flat (or even negative) growth these past few years, even though this has been the most explosive period of growth for the industry in decades. EA is the perfect example. Just a few short years ago, they owned the industry. They were the undisputed king of pubs, and their dominance was unquestioned. Now they have fallen to 3rd-place in North America, and are being beaten by a publisher that only publishes on two systems. EA definitely feels the pinch of not placing a bigger focus on the Wii. They definitely want to remedy that situation and make the market leading system a huge focus - they just don't know how. They (along with just about every other publisher) made a bet on the HD systems at the start of the gen. They spent large amounts of money and manpower buying and building engines, assets, programming experience, etc. for the HD systems. They put their top development teams and franchises on the HD systems. And they just don't know how to go about changing all of that mid-stream. Believe me, I don't think companies like EA are content to just ride out the HD systems this gen - but they really don't know how to transition themselves to a focus on the Wii. It's a real problem, and we are seeing companies trying to figure out how to move over to the Wii without just throwing away all of the resources that they've already spent on the HD systems. That's why we're seeing this hodge-podge chaotic sort of Wii efforts from the western pubs.

 

[Y2Kev]

Remember that talk we had about Crushed's new account here? Perm'd as well.

KEV and HAUNTED: PIs

 

[Hunahan]

1. I don't like my ideas being misrepresented by a few individuals here. One in particular suggested that I discredited my entire idea because I mentioned ONE game that was obviously moneyhatted to oblivion.

I assume you're referring to me.

You're focusing on the wrong part of my quote.

The statement you made that directly contradicts your entire premise is this response:

So what happens if (when?) the Wii eclipses the combined PS3/360 total install base? Would pubs/devs care?

And no, I don't really think that devs care, in relation to their hardcore franchises.

There it is. Your entire premise spelled out for you as a question, and your refuting of your own argument.

You spend great lengths with charts and graphs analyzing the ratio of Wii vs. PS360 sales under the implication that this determines where games go.

When questioned whether or not this makes any difference, you in no uncertain terms say the following: "They won't care."

If they won't care, then your entire OP is pointless.

That's my problem with it.

I phrased my first response as a question to give you the opportunity to correct or further clarify yourself. Instead, you dig yourself deeper.


So we can all agree that you have stated yourself that developers hardcore franchise will "not care" about Media-Create cumulative hardware sales when determining where to place exclusive games.

That's fine, so long as you are not talking about where you believe hardcore franchises will be placed according to Media-create cumulative hardware sales.

But wait a second, you are:

Then again, I'm talking about games like Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Resident Evil, Soul Caliber, etc.

So basically, you're saying that you are talking about hardcore franchises that will come to Wii exclusively because of Media-Create comparative sales.

Yet, you have no problem admitting that developers of said hardcore franchises will not care about Media-Create comparative sales when determining where to place these franchises.

Sounds like a pretty big hole in argument to me.

I think it seems obvious that things would change, but nothing has happened yet.

No, it hasn't happened yet. On that we agree.

In fact, in the last wave of publisher announcements only a month ago, we saw more "major" "HD exclusives" announced, and zero "major" Wii exclusives announced. There is no evidence whatsoever to back up your claim.

As I said earlier, this is not a debate about causation and correlation, this is a debate where there is no correlation to begin with. Sales of Wii are up, "major" exclusive announcements are not.

You have now made a "3 Month Update" thread to reinforce your claim, despite the fact that nothing has changed. You have updates on your sales-watch, but nothing new for the other side of your equation. There is no correlation to speak of.

What this all comes down to is your opinion of the way things should be, and can be summed up with the sentence "I wish that cumulative Media-Create hardware sales would determine where major franchises would be placed" rather than the assertion you have been making, which is "Media-Create hardware sales WILL determine where major 3rd party exclusives are placed."

Like I said to the last poster who followed this argument, I have no problem with you having a hopeful opinion on the subject. If all you want to do is tell us how you wish things were, or how you believe they will be, that's fine.

But to try and mask that baseless opinion in irrelevant facts, drawing correlations that there is no evidence to support, then frankly I feel you forfeit the right to object to criticism.

After all, as I took great pains to point out, apparently you don't even believe in this theory yourself.

 

[Neo C.]

Sure, but I don't really see third-party relations being a meaningful area of expansion for them right now. It's a lot like the VC situation -- there's very little pressure to actually do more than a mediocre job here simply because the console is still actually selling out and it doesn't actually improve their immediate bottom line that much.

They don't need the strong support right now, and one could argue they never will need it at all. Though I believe their own strong support won't last longer than two years from now on, basically they need to shift their ressources once the DS successor is nearing its launch. Dependent on their future planning, Nintendo could increase their publishment efforts to fill the gap. To maintain the sales on a high level, they need to increase the diversity constantly.

Making more efforts to bring 3rd-parties aboard wouldn't have helped Nintendo sell one extra piece of hardware up to this point. And it would have cost them a fair bit of money, as well as manpower that Nintendo believes can serve them better in other ways. In fact, up to this point, spending significant amounts of money on courting 3rd-parties would have undoubtedly lost Nintendo software sales. If more people were buying Wiis for 3rd-party reasons, a significant percentage of these would be people who have little interest in Nintendo software. As it stands now, Nintendo has sold most of their hardware to people who have a genuine interest in Nintendo-type software, which allows Nintendo to maximize their own software sales. And that is Nintendo's focus, and the vast bulk of their profits.

While they don't need the 3rd-parties to sell the hardware, they surely aren't against more 3rd-party support in the next few years, when they need to shift ressources to the DS2 game development. I bet they will continue to engage 3rd parties to develop some games with a strict IP control. The question is: Will Nintendo increase this part of business or are they happy enough with the game output by Kuju and other companies (quantity wise)?

 

[charlequin]

This kind of goes against your earlier comments where you took Nintendo to task for leaving easy money on the table by not moneyhatting more.

Well, I was thinking of "immediate" as the key word there. Having a healthy third-party ecosystem will benefit Nintendo immensely down the line, when they can ratchet back their own support a little and allow third party games (which they still profit on the sales of) to carry the system -- pretty much exactly what's happening with the DS right now. But the effect to date would be minimal, or even negative.

I do think right now is the time to strike, though, especially in Japan. Hardware isn't perpetually sold-out there anymore, so there really is room to grow if more and better third-party titles are announced/released.

But it is up to 3rd-parties to make the efforts to sell to that base of customers that Nintendo builds for them.

I do honestly think this is a mistaken approach because it doesn't acknowledge the Gordian knot problem -- no one wants to start building the market for other third parties with their own potential sales failures. Moneyhatting a few key titles early on is all you need if those titles can build an audience; after that, the money will obviously be there and other companies will come in happily on their own. (And I'm not talking about fully-funded third party exclusives or anything, just little funding nudges -- the risks on Wii are lower, so it shouldn't cost as much to get a few "real" games developed.)

I think many western pubs are definitely feeling the pinch. Some (such as Activision and Ubisoft) are doing very well, but many other western pubs have been showing flat (or even negative) growth these past few years, even though this has been the most explosive period of growth for the industry in decades.

How much of this can you attribute to failing to support the Wii, though? In Japan it's not hard to say that Wii development is the "way out" for troubled developers because there's a stark distinction: Wii software sells well, HD software doesn't. In the US, plenty of HD software sells incredibly well.

 

[schuelma]

Like I said to the last poster who followed this argument, I have no problem with you having a hopeful opinion on the subject. If all you want to do is tell us how you wish things were, or how you believe they will be, that's fine.

But to try and mask that baseless opinion in irrelevant facts, drawing correlations that there is no evidence to support, then frankly I feel you forfeit the right to object to criticism.

After all, as I took great pains to point out, apparently you don't even believe in this theory yourself.

As I said before, I believe there is already some evidence of the shift in Japan; the Wii has gotten some pretty decent 2nd tier announcments lately, not to mention MH3 last Fall.

Edit- I would also add that Panther's theory for Japan is a lot more likely because as others have said, there you have Wii software selling, and by and large HD software not selling.

 

[Threi]

some good arguments in here from both sides.


<3 you all, keep up the fight against fanboyism!

 

[bloody pirate]

What type of big 3rd party western exclusives are we hoping to see? what franchises? im curious

 

[jay]

Two words for you. Battle. Arena Toshinden. 5.

That's all that matters.