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So how bad is the Switch stock situation?

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Kazoo

Member
I've heard about the 28th for Switch systems (I have a friend at BB who let me know some were coming in then, hoping against hope to get a Neon JoyCon set) but I didn't know about the NES Mini being available too. Will that be at BestBuy as well, or is it just retailers in general? I'd resigned to never getting one but with this head's up maybe I'll still have a chance, and I assume this will be one of if not *the* last shipment of them...
Just at BB FYI.
 

jariw

Member
Has anyone made any calculating on how much storage facilities (in cubic meters, for example) that is required to hold back 1 million units of a console? Or even 500,000 units? Deliberately holding lots of stock sounds like a pretty expensive way to do business to me.
 

Unicorn

Member
Has anyone made any calculating on how much storage facilities (in cubic meters, for example) that is required to hold back 1 million units of a console? Or even 500,000 units? Deliberately holding lots of stock sounds like a pretty expensive way to do business to me.

They've actually contracted specific stockers available locally.

I think they are referred under the title "scalper."

Holder's fee applies, of course.
 
Oh man, comparing Nintendo's supply chain to Apple's. Now that's funny.

Apple is the tenth largest corporation on earth. If your argument boils down to "but Apple produces iPhones faster!"....just stop.
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
This is what people who scream "ARTIFICIAL SHORTAGES!!!!!" itt and other threads on NeoGaf fail to realize. I've argued with them tons of times about how it doesn't make sense to intentionally hold back for the exact same reasons you listed. Their premise is as flimsy as wet paper, but they don't care.

The intentional low supply arguments come from people with no understanding of business.

My stock answer to such claims is a request for a math model that shows how it would lead to more money made for the supplier when the price is fixed.

It's utter nonsense.

For every impluse buyer that buys one you lose an enthusiast purchase who would spend more money now. By the time the enthusiast finds one the impulse buyer has either sold system to second hand market or there's enough content to justify purchase.

All low supply does is incentivize scalpers which is bad for Nintendo. Less money at retail spent and bad will.

That is why, I ask for the math. If it's so obviously profitable then everyone would do this.

Ship less.
???
Profit!
 
Honestly the stock situation doesnt seem anywhere near as bad as the wii, this seems ps4 level, its probably gonna be tough to find for the first 3 or 4 months but it should even out soon.
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
Honestly the stock situation doesnt seem anywhere near as bad as the wii, this seems ps4 level, its probably gonna be tough to find for the first 3 or 4 months but it should even out soon.

It's no where near wii.
It's not the holidays and Switch had largest supply at launch for Nintendo.

Has anyone made any calculating on how much storage facilities (in cubic meters, for example) that is required to hold back 1 million units of a console? Or even 500,000 units? Deliberately holding lots of stock sounds like a pretty expensive way to do business to me.

Id would like someone to honestly propose this at a business strategy meeting. Manufacture a product, but don't sell it. Instead! Store it For a while. Then hope we can sell it later while we keep blindly producing more with no idea how much we should be manufacturing.
 

dracula_x

Member
Oh man, comparing Nintendo's supply chain to Apple's. Now that's funny.

Apple is the tenth largest corporation on earth. If your argument boils down to "but Apple produces iPhones faster!"....just stop.

It's not. Apple become "the tenth largest corporation on earth" because they managed to fix supply chain –
https://www.recode.net/2016/8/30/12700248/apple-success-secret-supply-chain-manufacturing-tim-cook
http://fortune.com/2008/11/24/apple-the-genius-behind-steve/

not in the opposite way.


edit:

Tim Cook arrived at Apple in 1998 from Compaq Computer. He was a 16-year computer-industry veteran—he'd worked for IBM for 12 of those years—with a mandate to clean up the atrocious state of Apple's manufacturing, distribution, and supply apparatus. One day back then, he convened a meeting with his team, and the discussion turned to a particular problem in Asia. "This is really bad," Cook told the group. "Someone should be in China driving this." Thirty minutes into that meeting Cook looked at Sabih Khan, a key operations executive, and abruptly asked, without a trace of emotion, "Why are you still here?" Khan, who remains one of Cook's top lieutenants to this day, immediately stood up, drove to San Francisco International Airport, and, without a change of clothes, booked a flight to China with no return date, according to people familiar with the episode.

Almost from the time he showed up at Apple, Cook knew he had to pull the company out of manufacturing. He closed factories and warehouses around the world and instead established relationships with contract manufacturers. As a result, Apple's inventory, measured by the amount of time it sat on the company's balance sheet, quickly fell from months to days.

^ 1998.
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
It's not. Apple become "the tenth largest corporation on earth" because they managed to fix supply chain –
https://www.recode.net/2016/8/30/12700248/apple-success-secret-supply-chain-manufacturing-tim-cook
http://fortune.com/2008/11/24/apple-the-genius-behind-steve/

not in the opposite way.

This is a great insight. Companies want to ship (and sell!) As much as possible at lowest cost possible.

Nintendo deserves criticism for shortages. Mostly because of their horrible communication but also for lack of agility and responsiveness.

(Not because of "artificial demand")
 
It's not. Apple become "the tenth largest corporation on earth" because they managed to fix supply chain –
https://www.recode.net/2016/8/30/12700248/apple-success-secret-supply-chain-manufacturing-tim-cook
http://fortune.com/2008/11/24/apple-the-genius-behind-steve/

not in the opposite way.

Ok, that's pretty awesome. It's still not a fair comparison though. Comparing the manufacturing process for everyday, utility devices, such as smartphones and PCs against a video game product makes little sense.
 
Nintendo does deserve criticism for its supply chain, but not in the massive way many people feel.

There is a huge difference between planning to provide a device for a large percentage of humans on the planet and preparing to provide a device for gaming humans in developed nations. Apple v Nintendo is not really a relevant comparison.
 

Neff

Member
Nintendo deserves criticism for shortages. Mostly because of their horrible communication but also for lack of agility and responsiveness.

The demand for Switch has caught everyone by surprise, Nintendo clearly weren't expecting this level of hunger based on their (subsequently revised) manufacturing schedule.
 
Honestly the stock situation doesnt seem anywhere near as bad as the wii, this seems ps4 level, its probably gonna be tough to find for the first 3 or 4 months but it should even out soon.
I feel like it was nearly a year before the Wii was able to meet demand. There was such a frenzy for it those first months.
 
There is such variable demand for Nintendo products (and gaming in general) that it makes gauging interest in HW very difficult. Nintendo last gen went from the wii and DS which moved 250 million pieces of HW to the wii U and 3DS which will be lucky to move 90 million pieces of HW. The gen before the wii they probably moved 110 million pieces of HW. It's hard to predict such massive fluctuations and over producing has serious ramifications (see wii U).

I think taking the cautious approach to the switch was the right choice. They're following up 2 launches where sales started out terrible and they weren't sure how things would turn out. With the SW line-up they have in the launch period I think the amount they shipped was optimistic if anything.

If the switch keeps selling out they can continue to ramp up production and eventually meet demand. It's not ideal but it's not a terrible situation either. Having stacks of consoles sitting in warehouses is.
 
Just at BB FYI.

I heard back from my friend and he said they were only getting 14 in and there was already a line.

2pm in the fucking afternoon the day before and people already lining up. I'm just never going to get one.

Bonus fun story, he tried to tell me I should just wait for the SNES Mini anyway. 1) That's just a rumor 2) it doesn't play fucking NES games 3) probably won't be nearly as easy to hack to add more games 4) doesn't play fucking NES games!!
 
One thing I just remembered is that Sony and Microsoft also had more time to prepare for their launches than Nintendo. Xbox One & PS4 preorders went up in June and the consoles were released In November. While for Nintendo, preorders went up in January and the consoles were released in March.
Nintendo's has had since 2012 to release a viable console though.
 

Dehnus

Member
So, been following this thread for a while now. There seem to be two camps: Nintendo fans who per usual give Nintendo all the benefit of the doubt and use all excuses possible vs, Nintendo haters who believe in some kind of dark conspiracy from Nintendo to help all scalpers everywhere and to keep supply low so that the huddled masses will pay more.

There are only a few that call out Nintendo's inability to negotiate with retailers, keep a good supply chain and have an old fashioned approach to manufacturing. It isn't that Nintendo doesn't WANT to make that money, and does use restrained supply. No, it is that Nintendo can't fathom the process. They work with old fashioned theories that one will always need storage as a buffer for low production, but that a lot of storage is lose of profit. Which it is, but that is why you have temporary storage. It doesn't help that Nintendo is a very stingy company, I know that does not make me popular with the Nintendo fans, but it is true. They'll scam you out of power supply or headphone adapter for mobile devices. And they did it WAY before Apple did it ;). They also always produce too few, for this very reason alone.

But really temporarily storing 1 million does not take up gigantic amounts of supply space or cost a lot. There are companies that specialize in temporary storage of products. This however is hardly mall intend or to create "shortages" nor doesn't it mean that the demand isn't that high. I mean seriously Nintendo fans stop whipping yourself up into such a frenzy, you are hurting each other with it ;), Nintendo can charge whatever the fuck they want and you'll pay them for the pleasure LOL ;).

But it has to be said that many retailers have been waiting a month for resupplies and some didn't get supplied at all. The sources are out there, and demonstrate that Nintendo is extremely old fashioned in their retail relations reach out and production in general. Not like Sony who, certainly in Europe, always tries their best to keep good relations with their retailers and even visits store to see how well their products are placed on the store floor. So old fashioned is Nintendo's approach of "If we build it, they will buy!", that it has started to reward scalping to an extreme extend. It isn't intentional, although I joked the other day that it might as well be something they embrace LOL! (With separate directs for Scalpers ;)). But Microsft and Sony actively try to combat this with weekly resupplies, allowing stores to be the ones that have the storage.... not yourself and giving out recommended prices for most countries world wide. Nintendo never specified a global. European price for instance! Even normal shops are scalping in Europe, it isn't uncommon to see a Switch for 400 euros in certain shops in certain countries. Nintendo simply doesn't care about it.

So yes, there are serious supply issues with Nintendo, and denying them only rewards their bad practices. But no it is not an evil scheme to get everybody to want a switch (Although I can see why people think it with the way Nintendo Fans have been whipping each other into an unholy frenzy). It simply is being stingy and using archeïc manners of supply chain management.
 

Dehnus

Member
I heard back from my friend and he said they were only getting 14 in and there was already a line.

2pm in the fucking afternoon the day before and people already lining up. I'm just never going to get one.

Bonus fun story, he tried to tell me I should just wait for the SNES Mini anyway. 1) That's just a rumor 2) it doesn't play fucking NES games 3) probably won't be nearly as easy to hack to add more games 4) doesn't play fucking NES games!!
I wonder how many in that line are Scalpers ;). As Nintendo makes it really easy for them to basically become the unofficial POS (Point of Sale) and Storage part of their supply chain ;).

People are also buying it from scalpers, and for each one sold they can buy one new and and put it back up on ebay/craigslist/etc. Nintendo might as well embrace their Scalper sales network by now ;). Really lol 14... that's not even a pallet of Xbox or PlayStations. And their packaging is much bigger ;). It's like "One box!" :D. Two times 7 rows of Switches in one cardboard box ;).

Here comes "good guy Sony" with 2 pallets each having 140 PlayStation 4's on them ;).

Good Guy Sony to Retailer: See, we treat you right. Now come here for a hug!
 

Dehnus

Member
There is such variable demand for Nintendo products (and gaming in general) that it makes gauging interest in HW very difficult. Nintendo last gen went from the wii and DS which moved 250 million pieces of HW to the wii U and 3DS which will be lucky to move 90 million pieces of HW. The gen before the wii they probably moved 110 million pieces of HW. It's hard to predict such massive fluctuations and over producing has serious ramifications (see wii U).

I think taking the cautious approach to the switch was the right choice. They're following up 2 launches where sales started out terrible and they weren't sure how things would turn out. With the SW line-up they have in the launch period I think the amount they shipped was optimistic if anything.

If the switch keeps selling out they can continue to ramp up production and eventually meet demand. It's not ideal but it's not a terrible situation either. Having stacks of consoles sitting in warehouses is.
Ofcourse it keeps selling out if you only deliver 14! to a store the size of a Target. Ramping up production can be done in a week, just like ramping down. And yes that means a slightly smaller profit margin, and that's why Nintendo isn't doing it on top of having a really old fashioned Supply Chain.

Basically all Nintendo is doing now, is making Scalpers their official Point of Sale. I mean really Sony can give you a few pallets of PS4's if you order them. No problem. Also Sony delivered pallets of PS4's during the shortages, not "1 box of 14". This is costing Nintendo money, but they can't see beyond ramping up production for a short while so that supplies are more linked to demand. Also their failure to set global prices is really obnoxious and facilitate that even normal stores can scalp in Europe and the world.


I mean in Finland Nintendo is stuffing the Supply chain! Yet in France none are to be found! That is just bad management man ;).
 

Zedark

Member
LOL Dehnus, what are you talking about? Many Nintendo fans here on GAF agree with your notion that Nintendo is bad at estimating demand and supplying accordingly, but your post makes no sense. You do realise that PS4 suffered the same stock issues for months during its launch, and they didn't even come off of a major flop like Wii U. Arguing that the supply issues stem only from some conservative stance on production just doesn't cut it at all (as many have argued in this thread already). So your "good guy Sony" with regards to shipping can go out the window, as it hardly reflects the reality and is honestly some childish bait if I'm honest.

With regards to your statements about pallets vs. Boxes, I would want to see some 1-to-1 comparison, ie would like to know how y I u're comparing this. Did Sony ship those pallets every week to the same store you're using Switch shipment data from? That's kinda relevant to clear up first before we can ascertain anything concrete like you are doing.
 

Dehnus

Member
LOL Dehnus, what are you talking about? Many Nintendo fans here on GAF agree with your notion that Nintendo is bad at estimating demand and supplying accordingly, but your post makes no sense. You do realise that PS4 suffered the same stock issues for months during its launch, and they didn't even come off of a major flop like Wii U. Arguing that the supply issues stem only from some conservative stance on production just doesn't cut it at all (as many have argued in this thread already). So your "good guy Sony" with regards to shipping can go out the window, as it hardly reflects the reality and is honestly some childish bait if I'm honest.

With regards to your statements about pallets vs. Boxes, I would want to see some 1-to-1 comparison, ie would like to know how y I u're comparing this. Did Sony ship those pallets every week to the same store you're using Switch shipment data from? That's kinda relevant to clear up first before we can ascertain anything concrete like you are doing.

Just read up in the topic, some here give any excuse they can find to go on and on about how it "Can't be Nintendo's fault". I mean look at how easy you attack me over it, when I say the other camp is just as ridiculous with "forced scarcity" conspiracies. Neither side is right, Nintendo is archeïc in how they handle retail and that is the whole issue. Ofcourse they'd love to sell more, as it is profit. There is no conspiracy behind it. But they have some serious issues with not embracing a global market properly. Making excuses for this, or even blaming the retailers like some did, is not going to make that go away.

If Sony ever nails the Handheld console (if they are willing to try again), and properly supports and market it? Then they will pull ahead of Nintendo simply due to having a better supply chain management. But Sony fucks up a lot with handhelds, where they should just look at the Switch and go "Okay, what do we need to do, it needs to be under 300 Dollars/Euros. It needs to be able to output to a Television in an easy manner the user understands and we need a killer launch title not just our PS3 games relaunched on mobile with little to no changes.".

Sony just lacks killer titles for the mobile space. But they should have the talent to make them. I mean come on, they make some of the best first party titles out there. Just, Nintendo does know what is fun ;), and on mobile electronic gaming that pays off ;).
 
Dehnus you're saying Nintendo supplies individual Target stores themselves? That they don't get bulk delivered to Target's distribution centers? Could someone explain this process for me. If the explanation involves Reggie in a pick up truck, all the better
 

Zedark

Member
Just read up in the topic, some here give any excuse they can find to go on and on about how it "Can't be Nintendo's fault". I mean look at how easy you attack me over it, when I say the other camp is just as ridiculous with "forced scarcity" conspiracies. Neither side is right, Nintendo is archeïc in how they handle retail and that is the whole issue. Ofcourse they'd love to sell more, as it is profit. There is no conspiracy behind it. But they have some serious issues with not embracing a global market properly. Making excuses for this, or even blaming the retailers like some did, is not going to make that go away.

If Sony ever nails the Handheld console (if they are willing to try again), and properly supports and market it? Then they will pull ahead of Nintendo simply due to having a better supply chain management. But Sony fucks up a lot with handhelds, where they should just look at the Switch and go "Okay, what do we need to do, it needs to be under 300 Dollars/Euros. It needs to be able to output to a Television in an easy manner the user understands and we need a killer launch title not just our PS3 games relaunched on mobile with little to no changes.".

Sony just lacks killer titles for the mobile space. But they should have the talent to make them. I mean come on, they make some of the best first party titles out there. Just, Nintendo does know what is fun ;), and on mobile electronic gaming that pays off ;).

My calling you out is over statements like this:
Nintendo can charge whatever the fuck they want and you'll pay them for the pleasure LOL ;).
These statements are clearly meant to troll, not to produce some Golden Middle Way argument. I probably should have made the distinction of my calling out clearer, though.

Anyway, as I said, plenty agree with the notion that Nintendo is bad at estimating demand, which brings them in these situations in the first place, whereas Sony is more optimistic it seems in those estimations, which is the major reason in my eyes why Sony has larger capacities lined up, which in turn make ramping up production easier as well and allows for faster replenishing of stocks (the act of replenishing stocks, of course, is part of the initial estimation as well). You say ramping up production takes like a week, but that doesn't mean you can get arbitrary amounts into the channel in a week or even a month or two: if your initial estimate is bad (which is what we should be criticising Nintendo for, although as many mention the Switch is outperforming what most had expected it to be doing) or simply too low, then you will invariably suffer for the next few months in terms of catching up to demand.

Dehnus you're saying Nintendo supplies individual Target stores themselves? That they don't get bulk delivered to Target's distribution centers? Could someone explain this process for me. If the explanation involves Reggie in a pick up truck, all the better
It's more that he argues you can read the general restock situation from those individual numbers. You might be able to, but it is an incredibly tricky thing, since you have to make sure you compare the same Target store for restocks aligned for the same restock period (i.e. if one store gets 14 units every 2 days instead of 140 every 3 weeks, then the situation is still the same), and you have to account for the possibility that Playstation and Nintendo are not equally popular in one given region, meaning that stock allocation will be adjusted accordingly as well.
 

Celine

Member
This is what people who scream "ARTIFICIAL SHORTAGES!!!!!" itt and other threads on NeoGaf fail to realize. I've argued with them tons of times about how it doesn't make sense to intentionally hold back for the exact same reasons you listed. Their premise is as flimsy as wet paper, but they don't care.
Those who scream "ARTIFICIAL SHORTAGES!!!!!" are even more funny when NPD revealed that Switch was the second best selling launch for a videogame console ever in US which means there was a high number of consoles on shelves.
Only because a console is hard to find (which could be common near launch if a console is a success) doesn't mean the manufacturer is consciously holding back tons of units.
Demand play a big part as much as offer on the availability of a item.
 

Vanillalite

Ask me about the GAF Notebook
Istocknow hasn't changed for days for me. Gonna assume everyone is holding units to dump them with Kart this week vs trickling them out.
 
Ofcourse it keeps selling out if you only deliver 14! to a store the size of a Target. Ramping up production can be done in a week, just like ramping down. And yes that means a slightly smaller profit margin, and that's why Nintendo isn't doing it on top of having a really old fashioned Supply Chain.

Basically all Nintendo is doing now, is making Scalpers their official Point of Sale. I mean really Sony can give you a few pallets of PS4's if you order them. No problem. Also Sony delivered pallets of PS4's during the shortages, not "1 box of 14". This is costing Nintendo money, but they can't see beyond ramping up production for a short while so that supplies are more linked to demand. Also their failure to set global prices is really obnoxious and facilitate that even normal stores can scalp in Europe and the world.


I mean in Finland Nintendo is stuffing the Supply chain! Yet in France none are to be found! That is just bad management man ;).


This is just not a proper representation of what kind of supply Nintendo shipped. Just keep in mind that this is the second biggest ever launch month for a console in the US.

I also don't think that it's that easy to ramp up (or down) production. Nintendo have contracts with manufacturers. They can't just to them and tell them that starting in three days they need double the amount of units. Not because the manufacturers don't want to do it, but because they can't out of capacity reasons.
Even Apple is usually struggling during the release month, often longer than that. And they are way, way bigger and therefore have much better leverage over manufacturers - plus iPhone sales are way better to predict than Nintendo consoles/handhelds (say Wii U vs. Switch for instance).
 
Someone made a wonderful post... In this very thread I think... Talking about the realities and difficulties of increasing production and shipments. Everybody should read it, just a shame I can't remember the poster's name.
 

PSFan

Member
What the heck is up with Amazon? Most of the big Switch games are listed at 'Currently Unavailable' for preorder. I wanted to preorder ARMS and Splatoon 2. Yo-Kai Watch 2 Psychic Spectres is the same. Are they fighting with Nintendo again?

I just placed a preorder with Best Buy instead. They had everything.

Someone made a wonderful post... In this very thread I think... Talking about the realities and difficulties of increasing production and shipments. Everybody should read it, just a shame I can't remember the poster's name.

But it only seems to be a problem for Nintendo. Sony and MS didn't have this kind problems meeting demand.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Just read up in the topic, some here give any excuse they can find to go on and on about how it "Can't be Nintendo's fault". I mean look at how easy you attack me over it, when I say the other camp is just as ridiculous with "forced scarcity" conspiracies. Neither side is right, Nintendo is archeïc in how they handle retail and that is the whole issue. Ofcourse they'd love to sell more, as it is profit. There is no conspiracy behind it. But they have some serious issues with not embracing a global market properly. Making excuses for this, or even blaming the retailers like some did, is not going to make that go away.

If Sony ever nails the Handheld console (if they are willing to try again), and properly supports and market it? Then they will pull ahead of Nintendo simply due to having a better supply chain management. But Sony fucks up a lot with handhelds, where they should just look at the Switch and go "Okay, what do we need to do, it needs to be under 300 Dollars/Euros. It needs to be able to output to a Television in an easy manner the user understands and we need a killer launch title not just our PS3 games relaunched on mobile with little to no changes.".

Sony just lacks killer titles for the mobile space. But they should have the talent to make them. I mean come on, they make some of the best first party titles out there. Just, Nintendo does know what is fun ;), and on mobile electronic gaming that pays off ;).
What on Earth are you even smoking. Sony lacks the IP's that are appealing to consumers in the handheld space the sorts of family friendly IP's that Sony have never managed to produce. That's the long and short of it. No amount of supply chain management is going to change that, that's why they went from 80 million to 10 million with the vita. If they were to release a successor it would go lower not higher. Nintendo's own IP's do the heavy weight lifting in terms of selling their handhelds and 3rd parties take advantage of that install base. Most of these IP's are 20's years old and still going. It's why outside of mobile their handhelds have always been the highest selling device. Pokémon being the biggest contributor selling 15 million a pop per year. Not even Sony's most successful franchises come anywhere near that consistency and is literally why the 3DS survived hardware wise while the vita died a quick death but persisted in 3rd party software. The market is cutthroat which is why Sony have completely abandoned it.
 

corn_fest

Member
Stopped by a pretty large Target on my way to work today, just as they opened. They got in... two.

Both sold just seconds earlier D:
 

Vanillalite

Ask me about the GAF Notebook
Stopped by a pretty large Target on my way to work today, just as they opened. They got in... two.

Both sold just seconds earlier D:

Interesting. That means despite the cross promotion for Kart with Nintendo Target isn't holding all of their stock to dump them on Kart release day.
 

Riddy

Member

mackattk

Member
Can't believe no one has responded to this post. $239 for a Switch is amazing. Hopefully Amazon Warehouse restocks in the next month or two.

warehouse deals just manages with customer returns.. so on a hot product like a switch it is going to be very tough to get.
 
My brother was able to pick one up from a Target in southwestern Ohio around 9:45am today.

Looks like lots of Targets missed the Sunday ad and got their deliveries this morning instead.
 
I finally found one. I called a Walmart about 20 minutes from me and they had 2 left yesterday afternoon. I asked when I got there and they had them in the back. The lady came out with a Red and Blue one which is the color I preferred. Super happy about it :D

Didn't buy any games yet or controller. I just wanted to get my hands on one.
 

Laekon

Member
There were 3 grey units at the Target near me so I finally bought one. I hadn't seen any there for weeks. They had a lot of BotW copies.
 
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