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[DrM]

Wow. It just keeps going. Glad to see their strategy works.

Would like to see Xbone catch up a bit move over the holidays. Competition is good fo the consumers.

Only possible market where Xbone can catch up a bit is the US, on the other markets gap will only grow in PS4 favor.

 

[SwiftDeath]

add the PAL areas to that.

To tired to count but the firs 12 weeks of 14 Sony had Sold 190366 Vitas according to Media Create and 34675 PSPs where US and Europe didn't really get any PSPs but US sales of Vita was at 89k(NPD) and this being Japan and not really overstocked anywhere and having shipped .75 PSV/P we could conclude that Pal and Emerging market regions had stood for the bulk of the shipment(471000)

Anyone feel free to use my latest post and do a recount since I need to sleep.

So like I admire your work towards finding Vita/PSP sales over certain periods but for future reference I think it would be easier if you found the media create thread that best corresponds to your end date [presumably this one] and then find the media create thread that best corresponds to your start date [presumably this one]. Then if you simply take the LTDs of whatever product you're comparing at those two timepoints and subtract them, you'll get total sales over that period

Thus for Sony FY14 Q2 [July 2014 - September 2014]

In Japan, Vita sold 153,662 units [3,270,124 - 3,116,462]

PSP sold 2,282 [20,165,648 - 20,163,366]

Since I'm already discussing this in the US, the Vita sold ~ 43,000 units. PSP probably negligible [< 10k]

Assuming at least 90% of those 700k shipments were Vita/VitaTV, then ~430,000 Vita units are on store shelves in US/Japan and were sold/shipped in ROTW [PAL, Asia etc.] so like some retailers outside of the US and Japan presumably are ordering Vitas???

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

Well, the market conditions are not the same as last year. Last year Sony was up against a much maligned $500 XB1 and a weak Wii U. Now they're up against a $350 XB1 with bundled game and a much stronger Wii U. The competition is sure to steal some sales. I'm sure PS4 sales will still be spectacular though.

The software is far stronger than it was last year. That's something that can't be ignored.

 

[kenji_sama]

How's PS3 total shipment at the moment?

 

[Mpl90]

Wow PS4. Certainly, it's not suffering shortages as the Wii back in 2007, so that shipment doesn't correspond almost compltetely to sold through. Still, massive shipments and probably great result as actual sold units to customers.

SwiftDeath, can we do some estimates about sold through, based on recent numbers + past ROTW %?

 

[LOCK]

If you're talking about consoles being sold & not shipped, there's no way that either Wii U or Xbox One will reach those numbers by the end of this year, with the way that they're currently selling worldwide.

Even PS4 reaching 20 million by the end of this year is doubtful. Not even the PS2 itself reached that many units worldwide after 1 year.

I'm almost positive Nintendo will hit total shipments of around 10mil for the Wii U.

Only time will tell I guess.

 

[AHindD]

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Microsoft shipped 3.9M in CYQ4 last year.

However, that amounted in something of an overshipment as their sell-through was 3M through the end of 2013. (1.8M US, so roughly 2M for the NA market, leaving around 1M for the other launch territories.)

I can see them matching or exceeding that number this quarter in the US, given an extra month of sales and the price discount incentivisation.

But I'm skeptical about the other territories matching that number let alone exceeding it at this stage.

So something like a ~4.5M shipment to get the system to 12M WW, i.e. a 600K increase over what was an overshipment last CYQ4, seems unlikely.

Yep, you are absolutely correct. Sorry^^ I think that Microsoft believes these bundles and price drop will move units and them believing it will is enough reason for them to overship again. I could be very wrong though^^

 

[Biker19]

I'm almost positive Nintendo will hit total shipments of around 10mil for the Wii U.

Only time will tell I guess.

Nintendo might be able to do it with Super Smash Bros. U coming out, though Super Smash Bros. on 3DS may wind up hurting it's chances of achieving it.

 

[SwiftDeath]

SwiftDeath, can we do some estimates about sold through, based on recent numbers + past ROTW %?

I did one in the September NPD thread

So as we have to burn time and posts until such a time as the attention is shifted from this thread, how about a terrible estimate for PS4 WW sales?

From my post here on US|WW ratios of PS4 sales, sales in 2014 of PS4 have wavered between as little as 30% of WW sales being in the US to as much as 38%.

While the most recent data suggests a 30% US|WW ratio of sales I would qualify that in that time period [from April to August] PS4 was introduced to 28 more markets and while small likely weighed down the rest of the world's share. I think ~34% or higher for the US's share is likely between August 11th and October 4th.

PS4 US LTD since August 10th ~= 681k

At 34% US|WW Ratio, WW sales of PS4 between August 11th and October 4th would be ~2003k, a little over 2M

At 38% US|WW Ratio, WW sales of PS4 between August 11th and October 4th would be ~1792k

So likely the PS4 either approached or surpassed 12M sold through WW as of the beginning of October

Or rather cumulative WW LTD for PS4 would likely be between 11.8M and 12M as of October 4th

Presuming it was a strong month of sales for the PS4, I could see it over 12.5M sold through to consumers at this point

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I found the numbers...

Wii shipped 13.17m at Sep 2007.
PS4 shipped 13.5m at Sep 2014

PS4 is yet the fastest selling console of the history.

With hardly any help from Japan is very impressive.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Something around 12M or so seems realistic.
At the rate at which the system is selling they would need a reasonable amount in the global channel, so a million or so doesn't sound like too much, especially if this also constitutes the beginnings of shipments for the holiday season.

 

[Toxa]

again and again

 

[Mpl90]

I did one in the September NPD thread



Or rather cumulative WW LTD for PS4 would likely be between 11.8M and 12M as of October 4th

Presuming it was a strong month of sales for the PS4, I could see it over 12.5M sold through to consumers at this point

Good job!
Yeah, 34% sounds reasonable. Even 35%. Don't think it's as high as 38%, due to all the new countries being counted, despite not being launch period for them anymore.

 

[Ishan]

Good job!
Also, did Sony introduce PS4 in other countries during September? If that's not the case, I can see that US/WW ratio maybe a bit higher than from what it was in august...maybe?

not sure if sony introducing the console in newer territories will have that great an impact anymore. they already got the major ones. if youre looking for ps2 level sales on nonus/eu/japan markets they will come but once the console hits a 200 dollar pricepoint.

I can speak for india i dunno if things have changed much since i left 4 years back but essentially you get a 200% tax markup so a 400 dollar console is now a 800 dollar console unless you go to the grey market and 400/800 dollars in india can get you a lot of food/parties/everything. so yeah those markets will factor in but only later on with bigger pricecuts.

 

[bobbytkc]

So like I admire your work towards finding Vita/PSP sales over certain periods but for future reference I think it would be easier if you found the media create thread that best corresponds to your end date [presumably this one] and then find the media create thread that best corresponds to your start date [presumably this one]. Then if you simply take the LTDs of whatever product you're comparing at those two timepoints and subtract them, you'll get total sales over that period

Thus for Sony FY14 Q2 [July 2014 - September 2014]

In Japan, Vita sold 153,662 units [3,270,124 - 3,116,462]

PSP sold 2,282 [20,165,648 - 20,163,366]

Since I'm already discussing this in the US, the Vita sold ~ 43,000 units. PSP probably negligible [< 10k]

Assuming at least 90% of those 700k shipments were Vita/VitaTV, then ~430,000 Vita units are on store shelves in US/Japan and were sold/shipped in ROTW [PAL, Asia etc.] so like some retailers outside of the US and Japan presumably are ordering Vitas???

There are games being localized for Asia that is not appearing in the west. (Sen no kiseki, PSNova and such). I think the rest of asia is probably absorbing a large portion of those Vitas.

 

[GnawtyDog]

Not bad indeed. 15M sold is totally doable.

 

[wapplew]

Can't imagine what a $299 mainstream price point slim PS4 would do. It will be crazy!

 

[Nightengale]

Can't imagine what a $299 mainstream price point slim PS4 would do. It will be crazy!

Then maybe we can finally get it at $399 locally, lol.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Good job!
Yeah, 34% sounds reasonable. Even 35%. Don't think it's as high as 38%, due to all the new countries being counted, despite not being launch period for them anymore.

I strongly suspect that whenever we do get a new announcement of sold-through to consumers from Sony the US|WW ratio of PS4 sales will have risen from the last period between announcements [i.e. US sales will account for more of the WW sales] due to Destiny being a strong property in the US and less strong of one in Europe, plus US holidays are probably stronger than other regions right?

There are games being localized for Asia that is not appearing in the west. (Sen no kiseki, PSNova and such). I think the rest of asia is probably absorbing a large portion of those Vitas.

It appears to be so as it's hard to qualify those shipments as having any significant PSP presence. I wonder how long it will take Wii U to outship/outsell the Vita at this rate. Sometime in 2015 maybe?

 

[krimsoncharge]

some of you guys must be crazy to think they will just do 15 million. we're in the 3 biggest months of the year, ill be surprised if they dont hit 18-20 million by december.

 

[RE_Player]

And journalists said console gaming was dead.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

And journalists said console gaming was dead.

In Japan it is.

Spoiler

I still believe in them. They'll come through and save us all.

 

[redblack85]

I can not imagine what it might do next year by including also Japan

 

[artsi]

Always glad to see PS4 sell, so more devs might make the jump from PS3.

 

[Biker19]

Always glad to see PS4 sell, so more devs might make the jump from PS3.

Hopefully, more Japanese 3rd party publishers/developers will also hop on board & deliver tons of games to the system, especially considering that the PS4 is more developer friendly this time around unlike PS2, & especially unlike PS3 (which developing games on the console was even worse than developing games for the PS2).

 

[Raist]

You think the PS4 is going to sell at least 103 million (Ps1 being the 2nd best-selling console at 102mill) units worldwide? I don't see that happening without Japan picking up some of the slack.

Wait, isn't the Wii #2?

 

[Dragonborn]

Wait, isn't the Wii #2?

I don't the Wii ever got there

 

[shadowsdarknes]

In terms of shipped numbers, where does the Xbone stand?

I think if we were to count the Xbox family as 100% Xbox One, the system would be at 7.7 million shipped.

But that's extremely generous.

 

[El-Pistolero]

Wait, isn't the Wii #2?

Wii is at 101 million units total. i don't remember what the Playstation sales number was...

 

[FDC1]

Wait, isn't the Wii #2?

Wii is around 101M and won't reach 103M at this rythm

 

[SwiftDeath]

Wait, isn't the Wii #2?

From the last quarterly report for Nintendo, Wii has shipped 101.23M WW as of the end of September 2014 so it's still 3rd after PS2 and PS1 for home consoles

PS1 for reference shipped at least 102.49M WW as of 2007

It's actually fairly interesting as Wii will likely end life 1M units shy of 2nd place

 

[BlackBuzzard]

In Japan it is.

Spoiler

I still believe in them. They'll come through and save us all.

Seems like that DQ Heroes bundle is doing some work already, its sold out on Amazon.

http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=sv_vg_1

 

[airmangataosenai]

Edit: DP

Wow, this thread moves fast!

 

[Orgen]

I'd never thought I would see the day but... I miss Parmenides :_( hahaha

Never understood the need to be the first posting something and leave it half-arsed :|

Anyway, very good shipments for PS4! Don't think it's supply constrained anymore but maybe 20 million shipped in the first year is possible after all.

 

[Crimson_Gold]

Why are people doubting the PS4's ability to ship 6.5 million next quarter? The PS3 did it several times.

Because hope is a dangerous thing.

 

[dolabla]

Holy shit, 13.5 and it hasn't even been a calendar year yet. Does anyone know what the record is for a console's first year?



http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2013/11/dont-read-too-much-into-the-ps4s-million-day-one-sales/

Lol, I knew that article was a joke when I first read it. It's funny to look back.

 

[iceatcs]

What the fuck, PS4 sold slightly faster than Wii with poor Japan market. I can't imagine if it wasn't poor Japan market.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Why are people doubting the PS4's ability to ship 6.5 million next quarter? The PS3 did it several times, and going by current sales it will most likely pull it off, or at least come very close. Hell, it might even dramatically overperform. Way I see it, it could be anywhere from 6 million all the way up to 8 million.

 

[Dynedom]

So has Ars ever made a follow up to that "Don't Read Into It" article?

 

[wapplew]

Why are people doubting the PS4's ability to ship 6.5 million next quarter? The PS3 did it several times, and going by current sales it will most likely pull it off, or at least come very close. Hell, it might even dramatically overperform. Way I see it, it could be anywhere from 6 million all the way up to 8 million.

Because people think PS4 exclusives for holiday are poor?

 

[DBT85]

Why are people doubting the PS4's ability to ship 6.5 million next quarter? The PS3 did it several times.

Why are people doubting the PS4's ability to ship 6.5 million next quarter? The PS3 did it several times, and going by current sales it will most likely pull it off, or at least come very close. Hell, it might even dramatically overperform. Way I see it, it could be anywhere from 6 million all the way up to 8 million.

It's not doubt, its dismissal and hope.

 

[pswii60]

13.5m is staggering, and without a real killer app and this holiday season yet. Could be more like 18m by January.

 

[Crimson_Gold]

So has Ars ever made a follow up to that "Don't Read Into It" article?

Too busy looking up good recipes for preparing crow.

The console market could potentially grow if Sony and Microsoft are truly able to leverage streaming technology to make cell phones extensions of their consoles. Kids love gaming on their phones these days

 

[GarciaHotspur]

Well, the PS3 sold 0.8M so let's say the 360 sold 0.5M.

2,4 millions Xbox - 0.5M 360 = 1,9M Xbox One

It's not bad !

 

[One4U]

Good PS4 shipment.

But the smartphone is really bad. Only 9.9 millions? That is far away from Top 5 vendors.

 

[casiopao]

Sad amount of Sales for Vita there. I mean, they even still add PSP inside.

PS4 sure is beasting. Can't wait to get one myself. C'mon DQ

 

[Toki767]

Good PS4 shipment.

But the smartphone is really bad. Only 9.9 millions? That is far away from Top 5 vendors.

Sony has a ridiculous issue with their Xperia phones where they don't become available in the US in a timely fashion and when they are, it's not on every carrier thus limiting potential sales.

 

[pseudocaesar]

So if they have given the LTD for PS4, does that mean we can minus that from the combined PS3+PS4 figures since the PS4 launch, and work out the PS3 LTD?

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Sony has a ridiculous issue with their Xperia phones where they don't become available in the US in a timely fashion and when they are, it's not on every carrier thus limiting potential sales.

Is that a production capability issue?