shadowsdarknes
Member
This 1.9 would also include the launches into tier 2 and 3.
This might explain why the gap is only about 1.4 million.
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Sony FY14 Q2: 3.3M PS4, 0.8M PS3, 0.7M PSV/TV shipped
- Thread starter ethomaz
- Start date
This might explain why the gap is only about 1.4 million.
Hydrargyrus
Member
It's easy to be, at least, more than 12,5 sold through. PS4 is a trully beast.
I can see them reaching 16 mill. sold through by the end of the year
I can see them reaching 16 mill. sold through by the end of the year
SwiftDeath
Member
Unfortunately Sony combined PS3 + PS2 sales for FY2012 which makes it impossible to correctly estimate WW shipments for PS3. We have had some announcements of PS3 WW shipments but I don't think it's solvable still
From the verge:
Overall, Sony reported a net loss of ¥136 billion ($1.25 billion) off ¥1.9 trillion ($17.4 billion) revenue in its fiscal Q2, with an operating loss of ¥85.6 billion ($785 million); all of this means the company lost 593.9 percent more money than in Q2 2013.
Jesus Christ~!!
PS4 cannot save Sony enough, which is bad...
Overall, Sony reported a net loss of ¥136 billion ($1.25 billion) off ¥1.9 trillion ($17.4 billion) revenue in its fiscal Q2, with an operating loss of ¥85.6 billion ($785 million); all of this means the company lost 593.9 percent more money than in Q2 2013.
Jesus Christ~!!
PS4 cannot save Sony enough, which is bad...
I would like to think incompetent leadership at the helm of the division at fault tbh.
But iirc they are changing it up with the Z3c/v stuff which are hitting the US this year itself I think (someone correct me if I'm wrong)
Nope. It seems more like most carriers in the US are just a pain to work with (everyone wanting bloatware in their OS, Sprint/Verizon not using GSM, etc...)
They really have to make a lot of concessions to get their phones on US carriers. It's a game that virtually every other Android phone manufacturer has had to do before and Sony are just late to it.
aspiegamer
Member
We can try to get a decent estimate out of Sony for the remainder of 2014.
13.5M shipped as of 9/30.
It was ~4M shipped by the end of 2013, if I recall.
So that's ~9.5M shipped through September.
What's the standard accepted ratio on Q4/holiday sales vs the rest of the year? Something like 40% of all sales? For simplification purposes let's say the overall ratio of sold = ratio of shipped. This number would be more balanced for Sony since sales are spread out farther and Microsoft will presumably ship a larger % than that due to high NA sales.
Right, so 9.5M/0.6 = ~16M for calendar 2014, meaning ~6M for Q4. Plus or minus 500k-1M at this point. Add the ~4M from last November-December and you're pretty damn close to 20M. It's not impossible. 18-19 seems completely doable depending on how much the XB1 can take out of NA sales.
Microsoft being hush hush on numbers makes it harder, but if we're at ~7.5M now and we had ~3M shipped in calendar 2013 that's ~4.5M in the first 9 months this year. Since this is mostly NA/holiday sales for Microsoft I'll put the percentage as 50% in Q4. That's really really roughly ~5M more for ~9-10M total for 2014.
Add to 2013 and we're at.... eh, 12M or so, yeah. That seems to be the consensus.
Look at both numbers and, unless current trajectories drastically change we could be almost to a 2:1 Sony edge (shipped and sold) by the end of Q1 2015 given the very strong lineup.
13.5M shipped as of 9/30.
It was ~4M shipped by the end of 2013, if I recall.
So that's ~9.5M shipped through September.
What's the standard accepted ratio on Q4/holiday sales vs the rest of the year? Something like 40% of all sales? For simplification purposes let's say the overall ratio of sold = ratio of shipped. This number would be more balanced for Sony since sales are spread out farther and Microsoft will presumably ship a larger % than that due to high NA sales.
Right, so 9.5M/0.6 = ~16M for calendar 2014, meaning ~6M for Q4. Plus or minus 500k-1M at this point. Add the ~4M from last November-December and you're pretty damn close to 20M. It's not impossible. 18-19 seems completely doable depending on how much the XB1 can take out of NA sales.
Microsoft being hush hush on numbers makes it harder, but if we're at ~7.5M now and we had ~3M shipped in calendar 2013 that's ~4.5M in the first 9 months this year. Since this is mostly NA/holiday sales for Microsoft I'll put the percentage as 50% in Q4. That's really really roughly ~5M more for ~9-10M total for 2014.
Add to 2013 and we're at.... eh, 12M or so, yeah. That seems to be the consensus.
Look at both numbers and, unless current trajectories drastically change we could be almost to a 2:1 Sony edge (shipped and sold) by the end of Q1 2015 given the very strong lineup.
Nightengale
Member
No for Z1. It was a carrier problem.
Yes for Z2. Sony massively fucked up their Z2 launch due to some major supply problems, causing the phone to be late into many markets.
Bit even without that,carrier relations were still a challenge, apparently.
Z3 is their first real parity launch, and even then Z3V is terrible compared to the actual Z3.
ninjablade
Banned
It's a shame niche developers like platinum are not taking advantage of this, they should have at least 2 retail game close to being ready on xb1 and ps4 since sales of there games will be higher cause of the Hungry user base. Any way amazing ps4 sales and I expect both xb1 and ps4 to do amazing this holiday with all those heavy hitters coming, of course ps4 will outsell it by at least a million though.
justsomeguy
Member
I don't know how much is Sony's strategy, and how much was the inept bungled launch and original vision of the XBox One which in many people's eyes meant there was only one choice for next-gen console. I'm tempted to start a thread to try and analyse the two, but I'll likely get shot down in flames because I work for MS.
But I look at http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=922336 and it's staggering that a console with what some ps4 owners are saying has a poor exclusives lineup, is so far ahead of XBox if you just judge it at face value.
Please everyone don't derail this thread based on the above - I'm not trying to console-war, I'm just commenting on the "strategy" aspect vs. MS bungling the launch so badly.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
lol but PS4 is not acting like a market leader
PS4 has a chance to reach 20 million.
3 months. I reckon if it does around 6 million Nov-Dec (so 2.5-3 million is needed in the US which is very high also assuming RoW meets that but they usually exceed US sales).
Can supply keep up?
One is selling great and the other isn't is probably why.
That and PSP shipments are probably slim to none at this point.
I'd agree that MS' pre-launch bungling re; DRM it has alot to do with it, but Sonys basic strategy of superior hardware (=most games are objectively better on PS4) and lower price was definitely a big part of it.
SwiftDeath
Member
Exclusives are incredibly overvalued when it comes to selling consoles. See the Wii U so trying to state that since the PS4 has a weak exclusive lineup, it therefore must simply be MS's bungling of their reveal/launch that caused the PS4 to do so well is illogical.
Forza Horizon 2, an extremely solid exclusive game for the XB1, sold less in the US than the XB1 SKU of Shadows of Mordor with the same tracking time. Just about the only exclusives this generation thus far that have seemed to put butts in the seats are Titanfall and Mario Kart
Sidewinder
Member
Morpheus could very well be THE most important selling point for the PS4 in the next years and might ignite sales in Japan too, so I expect it to become at least the second most successful console ever.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Sidewinder
Member
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Precisely!!
Just have a lolicon simulator that calls the user Oni-Chan, another 20 million sold.
LowEndTorque
Member
It is primarily a result of strategy though.
Sony’s strategy with the PS4 was to set an affordable price baseline for the consumer market and then make the most powerful video gaming console they could within that price range, along with improving some of the previous systems flaws like the controller.
MS initial strategy was to try and replace set top boxes with “tv tv tv sports sports tv tv tvsteven spielerg halo show tv tv.... oh yeah and games too”. Sure they’ve now changed that strategy but some things (like the hardware specs) are locked down and too late to change.
And it’s not “staggering” as you say that the PS4 is so far ahead despite the current exclusive situation. Not everybody is that shortsighted.
Edit:
Agreed. It’s not exclusives that sell consoles. It’s big games that sell them - whether third party or exclusive. None of the exclusives on either console right now are what I would consider big games. The only ones that fall into that category are previous gen re-masters (TLOU:R & MCC)
iceatcs
Junior Member
Pet simulator, another 20 million sold.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
30million sold!
The Shogun
Banned
The gaming division is simply not enough to save Sony as a whole.
That being said the gaming division is performing pretty fantastic. I would love to see Sony spin off / sell PlayStation as its own division.
That being said the gaming division is performing pretty fantastic. I would love to see Sony spin off / sell PlayStation as its own division.
It's a combination of both although I'd say Sony strategy is the larger aspect.
Sony choose to pursue a "back to basics" strategy emphazing the console was primarily for gaming first. This strategy meant the console architecture was better designed to develop games for, their SDK for development more robust and the console more powerful as they didn't have to accommodate cost of HDMI and their camera design was cheaper.
This as it turned out was perfect for the market and it resulted - crucially and more importantly than exclusives - in the first interation of big franchises like COD and Battlefield running better on PS4 immediately establishing PS4 as the better platform for games in general.
MS as you'll well know I guess pursued an entertainment hub strategy and Kinect with mandatory Kinect and always online checks. This strategy resulted in weaker console spec for playing games and higher price.
The always online/Kinect hubbub cost MS dearly and resulted in horrible PR for a while but I'd argue if you look at launch didn't have the huge impact many proclaim. It did hurt MS but it didn't overly hold back initial sales.
However once the power difference and cost difference set in the trend shift really kicked in - and better PR position for Sony only made it all the easier for people to swing towards PS4.
Even without the PR backlash Xbox One was always going to be weaker and cost more and that was the real issue I believe and one that couldn't be avoided because of the design strategy each company took.
The bad PR for MS just made it easier for Sony to expand beyond power/cost differences and look good pretty much across the board.
Without the negative PR PS4 wouldn't be as far ahead but it would I believe still be comfortably ahead simply on cost/power advantage.
Also more on topic it is amazing numbers, and we can tell 'cause Sony have chosen to split them out they're so good.
ninjablade
Banned
It's early generation action games like DMC, MGR2, and ninja garden can really benefit with such a exploding hungry user base, it's the best time for them to release, and actually get descent sales.
I think there's kind of a danger that this has been Microsoft's mindset this whole year. They really think their exclusive lineup is enough to win the holiday season, but it's really not as evidenced by them dropping the price by $50.
Sony's strategy has definitely been more of a key to their success than Microsoft's bungling before launch. Sony has said and done pretty much all the right things. They've attached themselves to best selling big new IPs this generation (Watch Dogs & Destiny). They've said from the start that the PS4 was the most powerful console ever made and it has been showing time and again in the multiplatform releases. It was priced as being affordable from the start and has yet to even need a price drop since people still view it as being worth $400 whereas many wouldn't even buy an Xbox One for $400 with 2 games included.
Their strategy so far has been pretty much very calculated whereas Microsoft still feels like they're reacting to everything on the fly.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
No Xbox One's bomba price will prevent that, unless Sony feels like countering it with a 399 GTA V bundle in the US.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
I remember at Gamescom when Sony announced 10 million sold through and Jeff Gerstman said "You know, at some point you don't need Tomb Raider." I am starting to think that you know, at some point PS4 doesn't need Japan.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Fantastic performance for the PS4. Think it's fair to say the PS4 now has a 2.5:1 lead over the X1 WW. Will be interesting to see if that can be extended to 3:1 by next year...
Poor Vita though. So many missed opportunities. You were too good for this world.
Too good.
Poor Vita though. So many missed opportunities. You were too good for this world.
Too good.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
The X1's price may counter in the USA, but it's doubtful that will turn the tides in any meaningful way in other markets.
It's still the 10th most populated nation on the earth that also happens to be home to a long and influential history of gaming development. Let's not pretend JPN doesn't matter. The PS4 may not need a particular game or franchise from JPN, but it needs the country nonetheless.
It has the best console multiplats though. I am currently enjoying The Evil Within on my PS4. Does its not being exclusive reduce my enjoyment? Hint: No, it doesn't. Good exclusives will come. These things take time.
PS4 is winning against Xbone because it is offering better value in the eyes of consumers.
True. The downfall of Japan might be the downfall of many great JRPG Titles.
justsomeguy
Member
These are all exceptionally good points and thanks for replying in the spirit of my original comment, which was interested debate/discussion. I guess I was primarily thinking about gaming strategy as opposed to hardware strategy.
The exclusives point is really interesting... I went XBox primarily because I wanted a Titanfall box, and didn't see any PS4 exclusives that overruled the lure of Titanfall. Yet by the same token I see loads of Wii U exclusives that I'd love to play (oh Bayonetta...) yet I've not gone and bought one (yet).
My personal value choice was exclusives & online
& some cheap games through work
> wii u
Back on topic: these really are fantastic numbers from Sony, congratulations to them.
shinra-bansho
Member
It's more than 82.3M and less than 85.6M. That's about as narrow a range one can get to I think.
Ever? I can see it. It's not like it's been far off.
It'll depend entirely on how the efforts of MS go in the US this Christmas compared to the PS4.
And the fact that the machine as a couple of really distinct, really popular features like playroom/share factory, the seamless hdr functions with custom playstation bumpers and now shareplay. They were right on point with social media integration and the right amount of cool innovations.
Seems to be a common trope these days where people are too preoccupied with trying to extrapolate their purchasing behaviours to the wider market only to be met with difficulty reconciling with how consumers truly behave.
I think that holiday price drop should give it a big boost.
gundamkyoukai
Member
PS4 does not need Japan to sell great last gen MS sold 85 million without them.
That said i do see them getting around 5 to 10 million sales from there.
justsomeguy
Member
Thanks for your contribution to an interesting discussion.
Nightengale
Member
Cheaper games through your job connection is a big deal, you know.
If every consumer got to buy console games at employee rate, they'd probably go for that console too.
If every consumer got to buy console games at employee rate, they'd probably go for that console too.
I'm pretty sure it's at that point already. PS4 likely is at 13 million sold, while Xbone is below 6.5 at the moment.
Gaiaknight
Member
I kind of want to see if the ps4 can shatter the ds and wii sales record though without the casual audience i dont see any system breaking the record. Still great to see the PS4 beasting though now being on bloodborne!
I think the PS4 would have had a comfortable lead regardless of power and MS' bad PR. The system is part of the more popular worldwide brand.
It played a large role in the PS3 catching up to the 360 in overall sales even though the PS3 came out a year later.
Miles Quaritch
Member
So close? I'd say with the information we have, Sony have passed the 2:1 ratio and are closing in on 2.5:1.
Do we have any updated figures for X1 apart from those we got in July?
Was still sub 6m at the point if I'm not mistaken and they haven't really many any significant inroads yet...so it's not unreasonable to assume the gap is already 2:1 and is reaching 2.5:1, if it hasn't already.
I apologise if I missed any recent figures from MS about the X1.
They don't need Japan really. They do, however, need Japanese developers on board to continually make console games and not just move entirely to mobile since that's where Japan is headed.
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