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[HotHamBoy]

At $600 VR is DOA

This just isn't true. Look at the history of bleeding edge tech coming to market. There are many companies invested in the future of this tech, this isn't laser disc or a single console by a single manufacturer doing something the public at large is familiar with. This is more like the advent of TV, VCRs, PCs and Smartphones.

Adjusted for inflation, the Atari 2600 cost $750+ and video games are still here.

 

[slavesnyder]

Analysts are some crazy rascals.

I'd say PSVR will be below 400$ and will outsell Oculus.

 

[Nameless]

At $299 there are a lot people like myself, I think, who'd be willing to go in to PSVR mostly blind having never tried modern VR. At $399 or $499 you start to leave that impulse-ish buy territory and are relying more on people A. Being able to try the thing before hand. and B.Seeing $400-500 worth of value in the device while playing whatever random game running at a retail kiosk.

IMO the latter price points create much for of an up hill battle for Sony's headset.

 

[plan9]

38 million VR devices sold figure/estimate is IMO a bit misleading if 3/4 of them are cardboard boxes.

 

[kyser73]

Okay, but PS VR comes with a GPU booster. That's gotta cost something.

EDIT: Misunderstood your point about cellphones.

No it doesn't. The breakout box processes 3D audio, sensor data from the HMD and de-barrels the twin images rendered BY THE CONSOLE for display as a single image on a TV.

No GPU. No CPU. None of that.

OT: Andrew House referred to an IHS report that estimate console & PCVR sales at ~2.6mn in year one, with PSVR having the lions share of that. This Superdata guy is predicting a 5% attach rate on a userbase of 40m, which the PS4 should be at by the time PSVR launches.

So internally Sony are lowballibg on the whole Y1 market anyway, and I don't think a 5% attach rate in Y1 for PSVR is unrealistic.

I'm guessing $349 for the HMD/Box/ & $399 for HMD, box, cam & Move.

 

[HotHamBoy]

Analysts are some crazy rascals.

I'd say PSVR will be below 400$ and will outsell Oculus.

It will outsell Oculus simply because 36 million people already have the hardware to run it.

 

[Omnii-chan]

If its the same price as Oculus, nope.

Sony has an opportunity to come out with a cheaper price now like they did with the Xbox One. Make it $400-500.

 

[Ferrio]

Price it around DK2 and Sony will have a winner. That plus any of the exclusive titles would make the Rift a hard swallow.

 

[bmcphail2008]

This just isn't true. Look at the history of bleeding edge tech coming to market. There are many companies invested in the future of this tech, this isn't laser disc or a single console by a single manufacturer doing something the public at large is familiar with. This is more like the advent of TV, VCRs, PCs and Smartphones.

Strongly agree. Millions of people regularly pay $600 for smartphones every two years (yes, for most carriers it's hidden in the monthly billing, but it doesn't change the actual cost) and $300-$600 for tablets every few years. I think the PC requirements are more of a potential hindrance than the cost of the headset itself. Even still, there are more than enough gamers that have high end gaming PCs to make Oculus and Vive successful and certainly, Sony can sweep up the mass market even with a $400-$600 price tag given the penetration of the PS4 worldwide.

 

[RiverKwai]

Well, it does enough to require a fan.

So does the Xbox one power brick.

The breakout box probably has its own power supply, not secret sauce.

 

[slavesnyder]

It will outsell Oculus simply because 36 million people already have the hardware to run it.

It will be cheaper, easier to use and will have Summer Lesson.
Case closed.

 

[system11]

I think they are on crack, with those sales figures.

 

[Mifune]

I mean people can predict what they want, but after the PS Vita and PS4, it should be clear that the Gaf consensus when it comes to price predictions can be extremely cynical and misinformed. Sony has moved away from highly customized components (EE, Cell, etc) to a more cost-effective off-the-shelf solution for parts.

But what's more important in this case is the difference in business models Sony and Oculus/HTC can go in. Oculus has to make a reasonable profit on every Rift sold, hence a price more in line with cell phone pricing. Sony on the other hands can use a more traditional console business model approach where the goal is to sell as many units as possible at little or no profit and then rake in the money from game sales/licensing. The cost of the Rift in no way predicts the cost of PSVR.

Well, the GAF consensus seems to be that PS VR will come in at under 400 bucks, so misinformed is a good word for it!

And Oculus is not making a profit on every Rift sold, at least not according to its execs. I think you're underestimating how much money it takes to make these things.

 

[ShemhazaiX]

Well, it does enough to require a fan.

What is Oculus Rift doing that necessitates a 600 dollar price tag then? Since the PC is doing all of the heavy lifting.

Comes with a game controller that retails at $60, and two games that retail at whatever as well as having better specs in general?

 

[kewlmyc]

Considering how much money you need in total to run Oculus Rift properly, there's no way it's selling 6.6 million in 2016.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Estimated sales for all platforms:

PC VR (Oculus/Vive) - 6.6 million: 51%
Playstation VR - 1.9 million 4%

Attachment rates based on 13 million OR compatible rigs and 50mn PS4 sold by the end of 2016. Yeah, about that...

 

[Disaster Nebraska]

I think Sony is going to SEGA Saturn the VR market and perhaps cut their price a bit lower to allow for market adoption. $300 for the headset + box and $350 for the headset + camera would probably be the sweet spot to straddle the line between "early enthusiast adopters" and "mass market early adopters".

We all know the hardware is better than Gear VR but not on the same level as Vive and Oculus. No one should be under that impression.

But for a "good enough" first VR experience, PS VR will do quite well. Currently, it is the only plug-and-play VR headset coming out this year, and it also is helping to lead the charge for dedicated AAA support.

 

[CraigerGamer]

399

No more. No less.

If they bundled this with No Man's Sky at this price, I'd pre-order today.

 

[noshten]

Should be $99 with 5 free games

Spoiler

jk

 

[Bitch Pudding]

If they bundled this with No Man's Sky at this price, I'd pre-order today.

GT Sport would also do the trick.

 

[daveo42]

Almost thought PSVR would sell through 38mil. Just shy of two sounds about right, depending on entry price. I'm still betting on a $400 price point for the base headset and camera. Add $100 for Move controllers.

 

[HotHamBoy]

So let's break it down:

VR is really, really cool.

VR is more than video games; it's movies, 360 video and photos, interactive and social experiences

VR has a lot of room to grow and is actively growing.

Oculus preorders are already pushing into summer at $599, despite cost and requirements

PS VR is very good.

36 million people already own a PS4

Sony has over 50 confirmed games supporting PS VR and will profit off of licensing.

Sony has been in the cutting-edge hardware game for decades.

Sony can produce hardware for a smaller cost than Oculus.

The input devices are already out there and have been for some time.

VR does not need to be mainstream in the first couple years because it is in its infancy and the developers understand this. It will be one of those things your friend shows you and then in a year or two you decide that fancy new model might be something you can afford, like a DVD player or an HD TV. Or a game console.

VR is not intended as a replacement for other ways to engage in media, but rather as a new way.

 

[Bear Force One]

This may as well be a Pachter guess.

 

[Minions]

$400-450 price tag; I'll gladly pay that. I don't need the move or camera since I already own those. Hopefully it comes with RIGS.

Sony is in good shape. They have consoles in houses, so the only price tag is purchasing the headset. Oculus/Vive require at a minimum a PC upgrade for "mainstream" consumers. It will be a couple years before computers are cheap enough for mainstream that support the required specs.

 

[majik13]

*Googles cardboard VR*

Wait, someone tell me this is a joke, right?

where have ye been?

 

[RiverKwai]

Almost thought PSVR would sell through 38mil. Just shy of two sounds about right, depending on entry price. I'm still betting on a $400 price point for the base headset and camera. Add $100 for Move controllers.

$100 for move controllers that retail at $33 a piece? *Cheaper most places.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Always take sources with a grain of salt.

 

[Pif]

I hope Sony doesn't keep the ps4 price high when xb1 drops price just so psvr looks "not so expensive" next to ps4.

 

[ToastyEthan]

$399 for just the head display. $449 w camera and move

 

[Ray Down]

SuperData should be given the same treatment here that the banned site beginning with the letters v and g gets.

Pretty much.

 

[sheamus]

I'll buy a PsVr for 399.

 

[HotHamBoy]

I hope Sony doesn't keep the ps4 price high when xb1 drops price just so psvr looks "not so expensive" next to ps4.

Of course they won't, they want to sell PS4s because that's where the money is. PS VR is an investment for the future. They'll need to move those PS4s.

 

[Gravy Boat]

Are these VR really worth 300-600$? Like forreal? They are very expensive accesories

VR is more of a platform than an accessory.

 

[border]

The tech itself isn't really that advanced or expensive to produce though. It's similar to what's in a cell phone minus the CPU, RAM, battery, storage, etc. The expensive bits are the screen and sensors, but it's pretty unlikely that those will add up to a product that costs as much or more than the PS4

Couldn't you have said all of this and more about the Oculus?

"It's basically just a cell phone screen with some censors, there's no way it should cost $600."

 

[88random]

I expect something like 350-400$.

 

[mangochutney]

Strongly agree. Millions of people regularly pay $600 for smartphones every two years (yes, for most carriers it's hidden in the monthly billing, but it doesn't change the actual cost) and $300-$600 for tablets every few years. I think the PC requirements are more of a potential hindrance than the cost of the headset itself. Even still, there are more than enough gamers that have high end gaming PCs to make Oculus and Vive successful and certainly, Sony can sweep up the mass market even with a $400-$600 price tag given the penetration of the PS4 worldwide.

If you're trying to suggest that because people are happy to put down $600 on a phone or $600 on a tablet every year/two years that people would be willing to also put down $600 on a VR headset then that is very short-sighted.

People may be willing to put down $600 for a phone but that doesn't mean they then have an additional $600 to go spend on a VR device. It shows that $600 isn't an alien price tag to consumers if they see value in it, but it doesn't show it is an affordable one.

Don't forget as well that a phone is a daily-use device for nearly all. A VR headset, as far as the masses are concerned isn't. People will see a lot less value in a VR headset versus a phone, meaning that $600 isn't as appealing.

 

[slavesnyder]

SuperData should be given the same treatment here that the banned site beginning with the letters v and g gets.

http://www.vg.no?

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

Obviously Rift will have uses outside of gaming but from a gaming perspective, now Rift has revealed it's price (£499) this is where Sony could have an advantage, because they can take a hit on the hardware and make it up with software, something Oculus doesn't have the luxury of doing, well unless they start creating & publishing their own games & software.

Sony have already said they are likely going to take a hit but it's probably still likely to cost £299 - £349, especially now Rift has given them a price to beat and a bit of breathing room, because at £299 - £349 they can still say "Hey if you want VR, our VR is £150 - £200 cheaper."

 

[Fisty]

Attachment rates based on 13 million OR compatible rigs and 50mn PS4 sold by the end of 2016. Yeah, about that...

These are the same jokers who said consoles were dead in 2012. OR and Vive will have 0 retail presence, PSVR will sit right next to the fastest selling console in history on Target and Walmart shelves

 

[msdstc]

It's more of a platform than an accessory, it just happens to have dependency issues.

And VR is going to be refreshed like cellphones. Expect new models every 9-12 months, for sure. Maybe not for PS VR seeing as their's is a unique position, but definitely for Oculus and Vive. Every tech breakthrough is going to improve comfort and immersion substantially, so much so that no one will want to use or return to older devices at all. But price is going to come down too, and eventually things will get to a "good enough" point where people hold on to their headsets for longer. I would say in 5 years it will be mainstream, but I think people are wrong in thinking this is something that needs to explode out of the gates this year. Acclimation is going to take time, the tech will only get better and more affordable, and by then there will be a ton of content because plenty of folks will be invested.

VCRs were like 2k when they first came out in the 70s, it wasn't until the mid 80s that the home video market exploded.

How can people think this though? Refreshed like cellphones? There is NO way. Phones are a necessity, the cell phone boom made sense. Then to tip that smart phones made sense for everybpdy- texting, email, work, emergencies, music, video, the list goes on.

Vr will NOT be for everyone, and it won't be nearly as universal as something like phones or even VCRs.

 

[HoodWinked]

PSVR will most likely be 499.99 they probably just want to hit 100 under oculus i think the price of the competitors is a very big determining factor for sony's price targeting strategy.

 

[Piggus]

Couldn't you have said all of this and more about the Oculus?

"It's basically just a cell phone screen with some censors, there's no way it should cost $600."

Please see my post about the difference in business models between the two. It's very unlikely that the Rifts costs anywhere near $600 to produce.

Well, the GAF consensus seems to be that PS VR will come in at under 400 bucks, so misinformed is a good word for it!

And Oculus is not making a profit on every Rift sold, at least not according to its execs. I think you're underestimating how much money it takes to make these things.

If that's true, then what is it about the Rift that's driving up manufacturing costs close to $600? And how are they expecting to make any money?

 

[Skellig Gra]

Those are certainly aggressive numbers.

 

[slavesnyder]

PSVR will most likely be 499.99 they probably just want to hit 100 under oculus i think the price of the competitors is a very big determining factor for sony's price targeting strategy.

They don't care about Oculus. They want to move hardware. And sell software.

 

[ElCidTmax]

PSVR price prediction

$399 main unit (goggles and external processor box)

$449 main unit and PS camera

$60 move controller 2-pack

 

[HotHamBoy]

How can people think this though? Refreshed like cellphones? There is NO way. Phones are a necessity, the cell phone boom made sense. Then to tip that smart phones made sense for everybpdy- texting, email, work, emergencies, music, video, the list goes on.

Vr will NOT be for everyone, and it won't be nearly as universal as something like phones or even VCRs.

That's just how tech like this is. The main thing seperating this particular tech versus others is comfort and immersion. Each breakthrough will mean everything before it is obsolete, and breakthroughs will happen quickly.

No, it won't be for everyone - certainly not early on, but people are always resistant to totally new technology, which is always expensive and niche at first. PCs were available in the 80s but not mainstream until the mid 90s. Same with VCRs before that. Same with cell phones. There were plenty of holdouts for smartphones, HDTVs and DVDs.

No one said it was going to happen overnight. 10 years from now, though, boy I wish I could feed you and everyone else that crow myself.

 

[border]

Please see my post about the difference in business models between the two. It's very unlikely that the Rifts costs anywhere near $600 to produce

How much of a markup do you think Oculus is taking on their headset?

Palmer Luckey has said they are pretty much selling at cost.

 

[HoodWinked]

They don't care about Oculus. They want to move hardware. And sell software.

you are a sony exec? of course they care they have overlapping markets/demographics. also Oculus serves as a good barometer for VR interest for sony.

 

[HotHamBoy]

How much of a markup do you think Oculus is taking on their headset?

Palmer Luckey has said they are pretty much selling at cost.

Well, they are bundling in things like the XB1 controller.

 

[Tigress]

I can 100% guarantee that PSVR will be between $1 and $1000. You can take that to the bank.

It will also sell over 1 unit.

I'll go with this prediction.