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The article is from yesterday, but I saw this slide across my Facebook today and a good number of my friends were flipping out angry over it. Through some combination of generous media coverage, youthful optimism, and the effects of a social media echo chamber, people seem to have not paid much attention Clinton's rather massive advantage in the Democratic primaries. I was pretty much the same until browsing through the Nevada/South Carolina Primary OT and noticing some unfavorable polls that were posted there.

Even in response to this story I just see people sorta sticking their heads in the sand - "Haven't you seen the size of the crowds he draws?! This article is so bias!" I think reality is going to hit people pretty hard in a few weeks. I'm hoping that at least if it's a series of pretty decisive victories then Sanders supporters won't be so bitter as to abstain from the general election.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...sanders-berns-out.html?source=TDB&via=FB_Page

Sanders may well have the volunteers and the money to keep going, but after March 15 he’ll have to grapple with a new set of questions. Does he still have the ability to push Clinton further left? And can he bring enough new voters into the process to exert any real influence?

Undoubtedly, Sanders will lose the South Carolina primary set for Feb. 27. The bad news is—with the exception of possibly Vermont, Massachusetts, and Wisconsin—he’ll likely keep losing though April. The polls are not kind and, with less than two weeks before Super Tuesday, pulling off wins in states like Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, and Texas seems all but impossible. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Clinton holds a 50-99 percent likelihood of winning some of the most delegate-rich and highly diverse states on the calendar...............

..........One of the more vexing things about this election year is the open hostility to basic election math and the exhausting comparisons between Sanders and the road that then-Sen. Barack Obama faced in 2008. There are a paucity of similarities between Sanders and President Obama as candidates and even fewer parallels in terms of campaign and election-year dynamics.

One day soon, Sanders will take to a lectern and announce that he is suspending his campaign. What follows could be a push for Clinton to embrace single-payer health care or take on student loan debt in a more substantial way. Sanders could harness his coalition ahead of the Democratic convention and attempt to force Clinton’s hand on any number of issues. Or Sanders could decide to actively campaign for U.S. Senate and House candidates and help deliver a new Congress that will take up those reforms.

Ultimately, what Sanders does after he exits will reveal if the movement was about him or us.

 

[Black Republican]

No matter what though if he cut down her leads from high double digits to single digits he will consider it a win and likely move on for a couple months.

Need to see super Tuesday's actual results and how much he lost or won in certain states

 

[King Tubby]

Well, those people will look mighty silly when Hillary is suspending her campaign from a jail cell!!!

That's about what it'll take for Sanders to win the nomination. Candidate's supporters in denial when it comes to unfavorable evidence, news at 11.

 

[Mailbox]

wait, did that excerpt say between 50-99%?

sounds like a massive margin, of which i should assume a large margin of error...

maybe i'm missing something here, but that just seemed weird...

 

[MattKeil]

wait, did that excerpt say between 50-99%?

sounds like a massive margin, of which i should assume a large margin of error...

maybe i'm missing something here, but that just seemed weird...

It's just a statistically safe way of saying she's favored to win.

 

[King Tubby]

wait, did that excerpt say between 50-99%?

sounds like a massive margin, of which i should assume a large margin of error...

maybe i'm missing something here, but that just seemed weird...

Those aren't the voting margins, those are the calculated odds of victory. If you hop on to fivethirtyeight, you'll see Hillary's predicted odds of winning South Carolina are over 99%. That is quite distinct from her projected percentage of votes.

 

[Damaniel]

Meh, he won't be out by March 15th. He'll be out by March 1st.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Probably. I mean, I wouldn't guess at an exact date, but I expect Bernie will be out by mid-march. We'll see, though. I don't have a great track record on predictions.

 

[Captain Pants]

Considering that he's all but ceding the south to Hillary, I can't imagine that this goes on much longer.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Ultimately, what Sanders does after he exits will reveal if the movement was about him or us.

I think it perhaps poisons the well to write an article that boils down to "He's going to lose, and if he disagrees with me, then that's proof I'm right and he's a jerk".

 

[LucidMomentum]

I think it perhaps poisons the well to write an article that boils down to "He's going to lose, and if he disagrees with me, then that's proof I'm right and he's a jerk".

People gotta feel self righteous somehow! It's not like Bernie's been in congress for years or anything, right?

 

[superdeluxe]

Early-Mid March definitely favors Clinton. Many big delegate states where Clinton has large leads.

 

[Damaniel]

I think it perhaps poisons the well to write an article that boils down to "He's going to lose, and if he disagrees with me, then that's proof I'm right and he's a jerk".

Bernie will almost certainly concede with grace, endorse Hillary, and ask for his supporters to come out and vote for her. I don't think his supporters will like that *at all*. The last sentence in that article really should apply to his most vocal supporters and not Bernie himself - he'll do the right thing when it's time.

 

[Slayven]

this Saturday should give us a good idea

 

[excelsiorlef]

I think it perhaps poisons the well to write an article that boils down to "He's going to lose, and if he disagrees with me, then that's proof I'm right and he's a jerk".

No it means if he drops off the face if the earth his ideals weren't as important to him as him being the one to do them.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

I swear, this constant mocking and degrading of Sanders or Sanders supporters is not the angle you guys should be taking, especially for the future.

Hillary is in for a tough fight this fall.

 

[entremet]

No it means if he drops off the face if the earth his ideals weren't as important to him as him being the one to do them.

He's still a Senator and he's been pretty vocal about his ideals for a long time now.

A Presidential run gives him a bigger platform, but I don't think he's done regardless of the primary outcomes.

 

[The Albatross]

No it means if he drops off the face if the earth his ideals weren't as important to him as him being the one to do them.

"Drops off the face of the earth" apparently means being one of the senior members of congress.

 

[excelsiorlef]

He's still a Senator and he's been pretty vocal about his ideals for a long time now.

A Presidential run gives him a bigger platform, but I don't think he's done regardless of the primary outcomes.

I agree. But that's all that statement meant

"Drops off the face of the earth" apparently means being one of the senior members of congress.

In this election cycle.

 

[dehydratedbabies]

Bernie is in this for the long haul:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanderss-path-to-the-nomination/

 

[Omegasquash]

He's got the scratch to make it through the primaries.

 

[Meowster]

He's still a Senator and he's been pretty vocal about his ideals for a long time now.

A Presidential run gives him a bigger platform, but I don't think he's done regardless of the primary outcomes.

Hopefully not if he doesn't get the nomination. His voice and influence over young voters and millennials could help the Democratic Party and the USA in general if he were just as active a voice throughout the non-presidential election years. He might not win the election but I think we'll be feeling the effects of the Bern for years to come.

 

[ApharmdX]

He should stay in as long as he has money (April?). The longer Hillary is forced to run as a progressive, the shorter her time to pivot back to the center is. And the longer we keep the focus on important issues (campaign finance reform, health care, cost of college), the better for the country.

Anyone who cares about the US on the left should hope that Bernie can make it interesting as long as possible. Once the general election starts, it's going to be a bunch of nonsense- personal attacks, warmongering, old dumb conspiracy theories, and so on.

 

[superdeluxe]

I swear, this constant mocking and degrading of Sanders or Sanders supporters is not the angle you guys should be taking, especially for the future.

Hillary is in for a tough fight this fall.

No one is doing that in this thread.

 

[Sub_Level]

If he can take Ohio he can stay in the game maybe.

Florida going to Hillary cuz of old people. And even with a miracle TX win, Hillary will still get more delegates on 3/1.

 

[The Lamonster]

I swear, this constant mocking and degrading of Sanders or Sanders supporters is not the angle you guys should be taking, especially for the future.

Hillary is in for a tough fight this fall.

I have seen this from Sanders supporters way more than the other way around...

They are soaking up right wing talking points, absolutely sure that Hillary is not trustworthy.

 

[Blader]

Bernie is going to be in it for the long haul, but barring some crazy turnaround -- even crazy by this cycle's standards -- Hillary is going to build up an insurmountable delegate lead with the Super Tuesday/SEC contests.

 

[plagiarize]

Bernie is in this for the long haul:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanderss-path-to-the-nomination/

Not sure exactly what I should be drawing from this. He has already lost a state he was supposed to win if he was tied with Clinton. Yes, Clinton isn't still favored by as large a margin as she was, but she is still favored. He needs to make a dent early on, not late on. If Clinton builds a big delegate lead before the later states she will have the momentum.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

I have seen this from Sanders supporters way more than the other way around...

They are soaking up right wing talking points, absolutely sure that Hillary is not trustworthy.

In Nevada, one exit poll showed only 10% believe she is trustwowrthy.It isn't just Sanders supporters.

But I don't want the thread to get off track, I'm sorry.

My opinion is if he when 10 states or so over the next 3 weeks, he will stay in. If not, he will have to back out.

 

[entremet]

I have seen this from Sanders supporters way more than the other way around...

They are soaking up right wing talking points, absolutely sure that Hillary is not trustworthy.

This is all normal. Primaries are ugly. I'm not sure why people are surprised. Did we forgot how the Clintons threw shade at Obama in 2008?

 

[dehydratedbabies]

Not sure exactly what I should be drawing from this. He has already lost a state he was supposed to win if he was tied with Clinton. Yes, Clinton isn't still favored by as large a margin as she was, but she is still favored. He needs to make a dent early on, not late on. If Clinton builds a big delegate lead before the later states she will have the momentum.

Iowa was a virtual tie, and these numbers are fairly rough. The point is that this isn't over anytime soon.

 

[Adaren]

In Nevada, one exit poll showed only 10% believe she is trustwowrthy.It isn't just Sanders supporters.

You should double check what that poll was asking.

Can't find the thread/post, but iirc it was "Of caucus-goers who choosing their candidate primarily based on how much they trusted them, 90% voted Sanders".

EDIT: Found it.

Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding whom to support today? (CHECK ONLY ONE)

Clinton Sanders Uncommitted
Can win in November (18%) 80% 15% 5%

Cares about people like me (26%) 26% 72% 2%

Honest and trustworthy (25%) 12% 82% 5%

Has the right experience (27%) 92% 8% 1%

 

[excelsiorlef]

I swear, this constant mocking and degrading of Sanders or Sanders supporters is not the angle you guys should be taking, especially for the future.

Hillary is in for a tough fight this fall.

Who is mocking anyone here?

Btw though was that a threat?

 

[Hindl]

Iowa was a virtual tie, and these numbers are fairly rough. The point is that this isn't over anytime soon.

The math doesn't work out for that. Out of curiosity, where do you think Sanders wins throughout March to keep in the race?

 

[afternoon delight]

This article is so bias!" I think reality is going to hit people pretty hard in a few weeks. I'm hoping that at least if it's a series of pretty decisive victories then Sanders supporters won't be so bitter as to abstain from the general election.

I think it will too since this appears to be a lot of people's first and second elections they've ever followed. A lot didn't think this was going to be Ron Paul 2.0, himself one in a long line of many, etc.

If they don't vote, they weren't as progressive or influential as they thought they were and will be appropriately shamed.

I swear, this constant mocking and degrading of Sanders or Sanders supporters is not the angle you guys should be taking, especially for the future.

Summer child.

 

[plagiarize]

Iowa was a virtual tie, and these numbers are fairly rough. The point is that this isn't over anytime soon.

He was supposed to win by 6 percent. He was only supposed to lose Nevada by 3 percent. He is not getting the number of unpledged delegates he needed and he had to upset Clinton to start building the kind of case Obama did. Which he hasn't. He has come close and run a great campaign, but barring a major upset come Tuesday, Clinton will likely take it.

Or put it this way, Clinton is on pace to win and Sanders isn't. There isn't much in it. I doubt he will suspend any time soon, but if he doesn't get 5 wins on the 1st the writing is on the wall.

 

[Brinbe]

It'll be over by next Tuesday. Delusional fanboys living in a bubble will unsurprisingly be upset... But the reality of math/delegates will hit hard soon enough.

 

[noshten]

You should double check what that poll was saying.

Another poll, another bunch of misinformed voters heading towards GE.

Overall, Democrats' top-of-mind comments about Clinton split 52% positive and 27% negative.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/189524/d...ction 2016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

And overall turnout is down, not up.

Why do you keep touting this, are we wrapping up another 8 years of Bush - nope we've just had 8 years of Obama. Obviously the people who'd be more invested in the primary race are the same ones that have been propping up Trump, Cruz, Carson and co

 

[excelsiorlef]

He was supposed to win by 6 percent. He was only supposed to lose Nevada by 3 percent. He is not getting the number of unpledged delegates he needed and he had to upset Clinton to start building the kind of case Obama did. Which he hasn't. He has come close and run a great campaign, but barring a major upset come Tuesday, Clinton will likely take it.

Or put it this way, Clinton is on pace to win and Sanders isn't. There isn't much in it. I doubt he will suspend any time soon, but if he doesn't get 5 wins on the 1st the writing is on the wall.

And overall turnout is down, not up.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Who is mocking anyone here?

Btw though was that a threat?

Far from a threat, I have nothing to even threaten with. What is this?

 

[Cybrwzrd]

If Hillary wins the nomination I probably wont bother to vote. I justify this as I don't think it makes a difference in my state (GA) if I vote or not. I loathe Trump, but I also loathe family dynasties.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Far from a threat, I have nothing to even threaten with. What is this?

You basically said be nice to Sanders or people might not support Clinton in the GE.

If that was not your point. My apologies.

 

[phanphare]

If Hillary wins the nomination I probably wont bother to vote. I justify this as I don't think it makes a difference in my state (GA) if I vote or not. I loathe Trump, but I also loathe family dynasties.

there's more on the ballot than just the president. you should vote even if you vote 3rd party for the president.

 

[minor effort]

If Hillary wins the nomination I probably wont bother to vote. I justify this as I don't think it makes a difference in my state (GA) if I vote or not. I loathe Trump, but I also loathe family dynasties.

You don't have downticket races in Georgia? No local elections that matter?

No offense, but saying that makes it sound like this is your first election.

 

[dehydratedbabies]

The math doesn't work out for that. Out of curiosity, where do you think Sanders wins throughout March to keep in the race?

I think that he stands a solid chance of beating the column on the right. March will not be good for him, nobody is arguing otherwise. But, after March...

 

[ivysaur12]

The delegate count will be rogue after March 1st, but insurmountable after the 15th.

I think that's the same for Trump as well.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

You basically said be nice to Sanders or people might not support Clinton in the GE.

If that was not your point. My apologies.

It isn't a threat, but a possibility. I have no control over the type of sanders supporter that wouldn't get out and vote in the GE (College kids?). This is the only place I really go to talk about politics, but I do see a lot of people mocking him when it comes to H v S.

As a Sanders supporter, I've come to the realization he isn't going to win. I mean it was a long fight regardless and he was going up against Hillary freaking Clinton. If it was anyone else, he would probably be winning, but Clinton has 25 years of involvement in the Dem party and the institution wasn't about to leave her behind and go join Sanders, especially what happened in 2008.

I'd rather have her than Trump, tho I don't know if she will be in play in Texas yet.

 

[jblank83]

Ultimately, what Sanders does after he exits will reveal if the movement was about him or us.

Given how long he's been a Senator, that his talking points now were his talking points then, my guess is he'll continue to do what he's doing.

I mean, what do people think he's going to do, throw a tantrum and quit politics forever?

 

[minor effort]

Given how long he's been a Senator, that his talking points now were his talking points then, my guess is he'll continue to do what he's doing.

I mean, what do people think he's going to do, throw a tantrum and quit politics forever?

I think what that last sentence was implying whether Sanders endorses the Democratic nominee and ardently encourages supporters to support the nominee, not whether he's going to pack up and resign from the Senate.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Given how long he's been a Senator, that his talking points now were his talking points then, my guess is he'll continue to do what he's doing.

I mean, what do people think he's going to do, throw a tantrum and quit politics forever?

Again... this election cycle not his Senator position.