Support NeoGAF

[Kilau]

SThe framing here is just hilarious.

Trust this to be his takeaway.

At least we are closer to figuring out who arthands is though.

We didn’t know? I follow him on twitter.

 

[Mr Reasonable]

How is the xbox only selling 800k units this year, not the bigger story?

Probably because when the market leader starts selling less, it indicates the entire market is shrinking?

 

[HeWhoWalks]

Someone would need to crunch the numbers but shrinking overall console platform is going to worry 3rd parties. Hopefully Switch 2 will help.

Switch 2 and PS5 Pro. They will both help, as will price reductions and big game releases. Besides, compare the numbers to FY2016. Things are not back at all.

Xbox is the only one of the three that won’t have any major benefit to add to hardware and that’s why the pushback from folks in here is so strong. GTA VI is going to be MONSTROUS for PlayStation, for example.

 

[Fafalada]

I think what he is trying to say that overall console user base has shrunk with Xbox floundering and those Xbox users didn’t necessarily go to PlayStation.

It hasn't really though.
FY 2016 last gen sold 19M ps4s, less than 10M xboxes and less than 5M switches.
2023, Switch and PS5 alone exceed that number, and adding series numbers the market for 23 was larger.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

and we all know how this news will be used by ignorant, desperate people. it's fine; they need something to feel a little bit better.

 

[balls of snow]

Casuals buy a console for Fortnite, EAFC, COD etc.

I don't know any casual gamer who bought a PS for God of War.

Plenty over where I live. Switch is the dominant console because of portable but casuals will buy fifa and say, god of war if word of mouth is strong. Now the new god of war game is also on ps4 so they dont see the need to upgrade.

 

[Moridianae]

Well, PS4 declined in the same year. I also think that the economy is a factor.

Let's be real--the economy is not good and $450-$500 is a taller ask in this inflationary era.

Also it's harder to justify $70 game purchases when it seems so many release as buggy messes and it takes 3-9 months before you have a product justifying a purchase, which by then it's usually substantially cheaper.

A great deal of people are already dealing with sticker shock for almost anything these days, especially essentials like groceries, energy bills, insurance, etc.

Probably revised down because they don't see those things particularly improving this year for your average consumer. It's still doing very, very well, but that's my theory on weaker things.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I'm most curious about how the combination of a Pro model and GTA6 will impact sales. Sony also seems to persist with the idea that Concord is releasing this year. Being a lot of former Bungie devs, it's definitely worth keeping an eye on and we should be actually seeing it soon.

I think I heard that Bungie is even assisting Firewalk with the game...

 

[Varteras]

I think I heard that Bungie is even assisting Firewalk with the game...

Why do I find this unsettling that current Bungie is helping old Bungie? Am I overreacting? Tell me I'm overreacting...

 

[rofif]

lol it’s from Tom Xbox.
Obviously people are waiting for the pro and slim launches at higher price than fat. Bad move from Sony.

 

[rhodesianshepard]

I think I heard that Bungie is even assisting Firewalk with the game...

That would be funny since Firewalk's lead developers are Ex-Bungie employees. But I got really high hopes for Concord. Sounds like a lot of talent, and Sony funded the game early in its development 4-5 years ago before acquiring them

 

[LordOcidax]

Wow, I wonder if the PS5 will outsell the PS4 at this rate.

0%

 

[LordOcidax]

Remember the Sony cut down the forecast 25 million to 21 million and failed to reach that with the PS5 peaking in 2023, i really doubt that can reach this FY forecast too.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

20.8m consoles sold in a single fiscal year and Tom Warren tries to do "fun with percentages" to make it sound bad.

If stupidity was a person it would be called Tom Warren.

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

So lemme get this straight, this FY was Sony's most successful to date with PS5. They sold more PS5s than any other year but idiots like Tom Warren are choosing to compare only this quarter to last year's, why?

 

[DenchDeckard]

Was this the year they forecasted 25 million or something? was is that much?

 

[mitch1971]

panda-zebra dude spoiler that shit.

 

[Fabieter]

Was this the year they forecasted 25 million or something? was is that much?

The last FY, the ongoing year is down yoy but they expected it to be down.

 

[jm89]

Maybe, you haven't quite understood what I am saying here. I am saying Xbox flatlining, and these users are not going to Playstation.

You don't know that.

What we do know and i mentined this in the other thread is 30% of ps5 users never had a ps4.

So sony absolutley have a chance to surpass ps4 sales if they can get people moved over to ps5 with price cuts and GTA6.

Sony have very strong MAU numbers(this is without any PC PSN account linking) proving they have alot of users in their ecosystem that they yet migrate over to ps5.

 

[Fabieter]

You don't know that.

What we do know and i mentined this in the other thread is 30% of ps5 users never had a ps4.

So sony absolutley have a chance to surpass ps4 sales if they can get people moved over to ps5 with price cuts and GTA6.

Sony have very strong MAU numbers(this is without any PC PSN account linking) proving they have alot of users in their ecosystem that they yet migrate over to ps5.

I hope sony isn't just betting on gta vi and have a plan for themselves.

 

[onQ123]

Imagine trying to make 4.5 million look bad when the competition sold below 1 million in the same quarter lol

 

[ToadMan]

Maybe, you haven't quite understood what I am saying here. I am saying Xbox flatlining, and these users are not going to Playstation.

Not all, but a chunk of the 20 million will especially when - see below...

How exactly will the Pro boost the platform? The vast majority of people who will buy it will be upgrading from a base PS5. Are people expecting most of them to sell their old systems on ebay cheaply and for this to add people who actually buy games? The Pro could backfire and make the people who would still buy a PS5 hesitant to buy a base model.

Because as far as we know the Pro will be the only console mid gen upgrade and its a big jump.

So if you're on Xbox (especially series S) and you can jump to PS5 Pro, play the same games at higher fidelity (and especially if Sony can get a desirable exclusive or two out this year), sure I think enough will jump. Especially once we get the next round of xbox titles announced for PS.

Then there are people who haven't picked up a PS5 yet - Pro is the best time for them to jump in because the exclusives are there and will perform at their best.

 

[TheGodfather07]

You don't know that.

What we do know and i mentined this in the other thread is 30% of ps5 users never had a ps4.

So sony absolutley have a chance to surpass ps4 sales if they can get people moved over to ps5 with price cuts and GTA6.

Sony have very strong MAU numbers(this is without any PC PSN account linking) proving they have alot of users in their ecosystem that they yet migrate over to ps5.

Yeah the gap between them is small and PS5 could go ahead with its first price cut still to come. Then there's GTA VI aswell.

 

[SlimySnake]

This disingenuous use of percentages for headlines is insane.

PS4 annual sales for comparison:

Draw your own conclusions.

Dude. Look at 2016 and 2017. PS4 They are neck and neck. In comparison, 2023 was 20.8 million* and the first quarter has dropped 30 fucking percent. If the percentage holds, the drop in sales for would be 14.56 million. Thats huge. Even the drop from 2017 to 2018 was a mere 9%. And thats the fourth and FIFTH year.

Regardless, how you can dismiss 30% just because it came from an MS leading source is beyond me. Especially when they just shipped helldivers 2, their fastest selling first party game of all time. GaaS clearly does not help sales. PC ports clearly dont help sales. The $500 price tag clearly dont help sales.

*Edit: I see other graphs showing the PS5 actually sold 22.7 million last year? If thats the case the 30% drop would put them at 15.89 million. Still well below the 19.4 million they managed in 2017.

 

[DaGwaphics]

That forecast probably explains the PC push. When your direct competition is doing everything they can to hand you their business but you are still on pace to be behind where you were the previous gen, you look for other avenues of growth.

 

[jm89]

Good grief panda-zebra put that shit on spoiler.

Gonna wash my eyes out with bleach.

 

[adamsapple]

jesus christ panda you fuck, shock shit like that should be bannable.

 

[Fabieter]

That forecast probably explains the PC push. When your direct competition is doing everything they can to hand you their business but you are still on pace to be behind where you were the previous gen, you look for other avenues of growth.

It goes hand in hand. With square enix multiplatform now there is no japanese third party exclusives left and they started porting their own games years ago so this is to be expected and its gonna get worse.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

jesus christ panda you fuck, shock shit like that should be bannable.

I don't want to play console wars anymore

 

[IDKFA]

panda-zebra

Why the fuck did you post that?! I was just about to eat eggs for my post workout meal! Now I'm going to go hungry

 

[adamsapple]

for fuck's sake people, stop post quoting that moron

 

[IDKFA]

for fuck's sake people, stop post quoting that moron

My bad.

Just edited my post.

 

[SlimySnake]

That forecast probably explains the PC push. When your direct competition is doing everything they can to hand you their business but you are still on pace to be behind where you were the previous gen, you look for other avenues of growth.

Or the PC push is what caused this drop.

They have ported virtually every single exclusive to PC in the last 2 years alone. There was no drop in years 3 and 4 when Sony wasnt porting to PC. When Sony released a PS4 Pro to keep the hardcore from going to PC. Maybe the problem is the fact that they did port everything to PC and created this expectation that everything will come to PC on day one or within 2 years.

The fact that they just released their most successful first party game of ALL time and STILL dropped 30% should raise alarm bells. Those insane helldivers 2 PC sales did not help their business. It only hurt it. Just like it did Microsoft's. This should be clear for everyone to see.

 

[Pedro Motta]

I say we should make Tom Warren a banned source on GAF. Not sure why this isn't the case yet. Nothing trustworthy comes out of that mouth.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

Or the PC push is what caused this drop.

They have ported virtually every single exclusive to PC in the last 2 years alone. There was no drop in years 3 and 4 when Sony wasnt porting to PC. When Sony released a PS4 Pro to keep the hardcore from going to PC. Maybe the problem is the fact that they did port

Last years Q4 number wasn't going to be sustainable. It was massive. That's why it dropped.

 

[UltimaKilo]

Well, PS4 declined in the same year. I also think that the economy is a factor.

Let's be real--the economy is not good and $450-$500 is a taller ask in this inflationary era.

Also it's harder to justify $70 game purchases when it seems so many release as buggy messes and it takes 3-9 months before you have a product justifying a purchase, which by then it's usually substantially cheaper.

A great deal of people are already dealing with sticker shock for almost anything these days, especially essentials like groceries, energy bills, insurance, etc.

Probably revised down because they don't see those things particularly improving this year for your average consumer. It's still doing very, very well, but that's my theory on weaker things.

This is the best answer here so far, but you’re also missing a critical factor: the younger generation don’t care for dedicated video game devices and the older generations.

 

[mitch1971]

Stop quoting a post that should have a spoiler (or not posted in the first place).

 

[Little Chicken]

My bad.

Just edited my post.

Oh I just saw the nice one and thought what a sweetheart. Then the original

 

[DForce]

The fact that they just released their most successful first party game of ALL time and STILL dropped 30% should raise alarm bells. Those insane helldivers 2 PC sales did not help their business. It only hurt it. Just like it did Microsoft's. This should be clear for everyone to see.

They shipped 6.3 million units by this time last year. There's no way they were going to come close to matching that.

The PlayStation 4 was also $249.99 from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017.

The only thing people have to worry about is how they're going to reduce the price of the PlayStation 5 console going forward.

 

[AyraSutoraifu]

WTF did I just watch?

I reported it… i fucking HATE animal abuse.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

PS5 down 29%. Xbox down 25%

Look Xbox is better

 

[LordCBH]

What in the actual fuck did I just watch

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

I honestly think the less “genuine” first party exclusives to come out and the more PlayStation exclusives that make their way over to PC could cause PS5 sales to slightly decrease even more in the future.

 

[tmlDan]

ArtHands back at it again sharing a fanboys article.

 

[Punished Miku]

What in the actual fuck did I just watch

If people are that horrified (they should be), maybe they should look into eating vegetarian more often. This is on people's plate every day and those lives are only worth pennies.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

If people are that horrified (they should be), maybe they should look into eating vegetarian more often. This is on people's plate every day and those lives are only worth pennies.

nah bro i prefer ignorance on my plate

 

[GHG]

Dude. Look at 2016 and 2017. PS4 They are neck and neck. In comparison, 2023 was 20.8 million* and the first quarter has dropped 30 fucking percent. If the percentage holds, the drop in sales for would be 14.56 million. Thats huge. Even the drop from 2017 to 2018 was a mere 9%. And thats the fourth and FIFTH year.

Regardless, how you can dismiss 30% just because it came from an MS leading source is beyond me. Especially when they just shipped helldivers 2, their fastest selling first party game of all time. GaaS clearly does not help sales. PC ports clearly dont help sales. The $500 price tag clearly dont help sales.

*Edit: I see other graphs showing the PS5 actually sold 22.7 million last year? If thats the case the 30% drop would put them at 15.89 million. Still well below the 19.4 million they managed in 2017.

They are not forecasting the Q1 drop to hold. All the information is actually there in the OP if you ignore the commentary.

 

[SlimySnake]

Last years Q4 number wasn't going to be sustainable. It was massive.

30% when you ship the biggest first party exclusive of all time is nuts. Not to mention FF7 Rebirth and Rise of Ronin. FF7 >>>>>>>>> Forspoken. Helldivers = Hogwarts. Literally, they both sold 12 million. Only, Hogwarts sold the vast majority of copies on PS5 and helldivers sold a small majority on PC.

But i guess we will see what the drop is next quarter but that quarter has no games. I would expect a similar drop. Bookmark this post if you want.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Dude. Look at 2016 and 2017. PS4 They are neck and neck. In comparison, 2023 was 20.8 million* and the first quarter has dropped 30 fucking percent. If the percentage holds, the drop in sales for would be 14.56 million. Thats huge. Even the drop from 2017 to 2018 was a mere 9%. And thats the fourth and FIFTH year.

Regardless, how you can dismiss 30% just because it came from an MS leading source is beyond me. Especially when they just shipped helldivers 2, their fastest selling first party game of all time. GaaS clearly does not help sales. PC ports clearly dont help sales. The $500 price tag clearly dont help sales.

*Edit: I see other graphs showing the PS5 actually sold 22.7 million last year? If thats the case the 30% drop would put them at 15.89 million. Still well below the 19.4 million they managed in 2017.

Do you ever read before outraging like this?

They are not expecting 30% decline across the entire year. Last year sales were incredible this quarter due to supply opening up everywhere. Massive sales increase. Subsequent quarters did not maintain that level.

So when we are comparing the next few quarters YoY it won’t be against that one off huge spike

 

[tmlDan]

Maybe, you haven't quite understood what I am saying here. I am saying Xbox flatlining, and these users are not going to Playstation. The market is shrinking drastically. If Sony see's further declines over the next few years its going to be bad for the games industry. They need to deliver some serious system selling games to push sales. Channels are stuffed with stock, shipments are slowing. Games cost magnitudes more to develop than they did on PS4, they can't just match PS4 sales in both software and hardware. Let's see what the future brings but the industry is far from "Fine"

We'll see when GTA6 comes out, as of right now consoles are doing fine. PS5 sales are catching up to PS4, it was behind due to shortages and this year was the best year its ever had, something the ps4 never achieved.

Even if its just switch 1/2 and PS