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[AndyD]

Even though I don't know too much about pc hardware, imo a console released in 2013 with the performance of a single 580 should be fine and work very well in a closed environment with a specialised first party engine.

I dont think we even need that much for a console, a 480 would be enough for rock solid 1080p with bells and whistles in a closed environment.

 

[TheExodu5]

20x honestly sounds low.

I'm being conservative, but I'm not far off.

Again, being conservative:

GTX 580 is 80% faster than GTX 460
GTX 460 is 120% faster than 8800GT
8800GT is 80% faster than 7900GT
7900GT is close to console GPU performance

That's about 7x faster.

If a new console came out in 2013, I somehow doubt the video hardware would be any faster than something like a GTX 460. I don't think they'll be going as bleeding edge as last gen.

 

[Trickster]

Putting a video out during gdc would be silly. We want people to come see it in person first at gdc.

That's great and all, but when can we expect a the video online for those of us that live several thousand miles from GDC, and can't exactly take time off and spend money on a plane ticket to go see a tech demo?

 

[Stallion Free]

I don't think they'll be going ad bleeding edge as last gen.

Bleeding edge = bleeding money. If console owners have been content with the current systems for this long, it seems like it would be absolutely idiotic to go build machines and sell them at a loss again. The mass market doesn't even know what cutting edge and they could easily get away with using a 460.

 

[Wandering Leopard]

I dont think we even need that much for a console, a 480 would be enough for rock solid 1080p with bells and whistles in a closed environment.

You're probably right but I want MS and Sony to push as hard as they can on the graphics side while trying to launch at around $499/£325 because the ps3's launch price was unacceptable.

 

[TheExodu5]

That's great and all, but when can we expect a the video online for those of us that live several thousand miles from GDC, and can't exactly take time off and spend money on a plane ticket to go see a tech demo?

Next week.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I expect next gen console will still be 1 gen behind PC gpu maybe 2 depending on certain things no matter when they come out.
Still they don't need to be to have gfx that look really good.

 

[TheExodu5]

Bleeding edge = bleeding money. If console owners have been content with the current systems for this long, it seems like it would be absolutely idiotic to go build machines and sell them at a loss again. The mass market doesn't even know what cutting edge and they could easily get away with using a 460.

A 460 is still incredibly fast compared to current consoles. In 2013, I'd expect something similar to take half the power and cost half the money it does currently. Such a system could launch at maybe $400 and still make money.

Of course, if Sony and MS want to go into another loss leading war, I'm all for it.

Still, I doubt well see these kinds of visuals next gen, at least not at 1080p or 60fps. If they plan on having visuals like these, expect 720p and 30fps again.

 

[subversus]

I expect next gen console will still be 1 gen behind PC gpu maybe 2 depending on certain things no matter when they come out.
Still they don't need to be to have gfx that look really good.

that would be great btw.

 

[Trickster]

Next week.

Man, that's a long time for a damn trailer/techdemo

 

[TheExodu5]

I expect next gen console will still be 1 gen behind PC gpu maybe 2 depending on certain things no matter when they come out.

I would say at least 1-2 gens behind mid range GPUs. At the very most, I'd expect systems to launch at $500, while still making a profit. I think $400 may be more likely.

 

[dark10x]

A 460 is still incredibly fast compared to current consoles. In 2013, I'd expect something similar to take half the power and cost half the money it does currently. Such a system could launch at maybe $400 and still make money.

Of course, if Sony and MS want to go into another loss leading war, I'm all for it.

Still, I doubt well see these kinds of visuals next gen, at least not at 1080p or 60fps. If they plan on having visuals like these, expect 720p and 30fps again.

Well, as with any generation, you can't really expect a standard framerate. You can always raise the visual complexity to the point where 60 fps becomes impossible on any piece of hardware and developers will continue to do this.

The PS2 was one of those rare exceptions where 60 fps actually made sense and came with a low cost. Image quality did suffer a bit, indeed, but the jump in performance made it worthwhile. We're not going to see anything like that again.

 

[subversus]

I would say at least 1-2 gens behind mid range GPUs. At the very most, I'd expect systems to launch at $500, while still making a profit. I think $400 may be more likely.

We have to see if there would be next-gen consoles at all.

 

[modulaire]

EPIC should have released the video before GDC (like DICE did with Battlefield3) - but yes, it would be stupid to release the trailer right now.

Can't wait to see it next week.

 

[Stallion Free]

Still, I doubt well see these kinds of visuals next gen, at least not at 1080p or 60fps. If they plan on having visuals like these, expect 720p and 30fps again.

Devs got away with it this gen, they will next gen too.

 

[AndyD]

You're probably right but I want MS and Sony to push as hard as they can on the graphics side while trying to launch at around $499/£325 because the ps3's launch price was unacceptable.

The PS3 was 499 at launch and it was unacceptable.

I think they need to come out at 299 or 399 max. After all they just need an evolution of their machines, and there should no longer be the novelty of the HD or 3D driving up the prices.

 

[Dennis]

I expect most games next gen to be 30 fps at either 1280x1080 or 1920x1080.

Don't be surprised if developers will shy away from 1920x1080.

The same reasons that have made developers use sub-720p this gen, will be present in the next.

Most people are more impressed with more effects and geometry than higher resolution...and the devs know it.

 

[Man]

I'm being conservative, but I'm not far off.

Again, being conservative:

GTX 580 is 80% faster than GTX 460
GTX 460 is 120% faster than 8800GT
8800GT is 80% faster than 7900GT
7900GT is close to console GPU performance

That's about 7x faster.

If a new console came out in 2013, I somehow doubt the video hardware would be any faster than something like a GTX 460. I don't think they'll be going as bleeding edge as last gen.

That's super conservative in my eyes. The PSP2 is very high end for a portable device yet a cost effective solution.
I think the next gen consoles will be in line with the launch of the current consoles, just no focus on super expensive custom hardware and mediums.
Highly capable, standardized but with a fast decline in cost.

 

[Minsc]

Most people are more impressed with more effects and geometry than higher resolution...and the devs know it.

I doubt most people care about the difference between 720p scaled to 1080p vs native 1080p on HDTVs. I know I pretty much don't (on my HDTV) when I'm on my comfy couch. On my monitor it's painfully obvious, but I sit a decent distance from my HDTV, so I can barely tell 480p from 1080p and it's 50" screen.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

We have to see if there would be next-gen consoles at all.

They are going to be next gen consoles it's just a matter on when .
This tech demo is impressive and i really think people don't understand how much power PC GPUs have today.

 

[Wandering Leopard]

The PS3 was 499 at launch and it was unacceptable.

I think they need to come out at 299 or 399 max. After all they just need an evolution of their machines, and there should no longer be the novelty of the HD or 3D driving up the prices.

I really want to see a noticeable improvement in graphics though, but nothing drastic like last gen to the current one.
I would also expect 399 for a base sku and be ok with Sony or MS losing a little bit of money on it while making a profit on a 499 model.

I'm also pretty sure the ps3 launched at $599/£425.

 

[Stallion Free]

That's super conservative in my eyes. The PSP2 is very high end for a portable device yet a cost effective solution.

Isn't the PSP2 going to be sold at a loss initially? How would that be a cost effective solution?

 

[poppabk]

I wonder what they will do if the consoles don't make that big a leap? The NGP suggests they will make a ten fold leap, but what if they only doubled or tripled in power?

 

[Thunderbear]

I think next-gen will easily be GTX580, probably stronger (I would say at least one generation stronger than a 580) with hopefully 2GB of video ram, and not come out until 2 years from now at the earliest. That's my guess.

And people are already making games with this level of detail, they just have to scale it back. All character models these days are built high res in Mudbox and Zbrush so the high poly count already exists. And if artists have access to SSS shaders for in-game, it won't take a lot more effort to use that. Some of today's games use SSS but it's really basic compared to what's being shown here.

I've said it before but I'll say it again, the tools have made it much easier to create content faster than 5 years ago. Motion Capture systems have come down in price, UVWing and texturing is easier than ever, modeling is faster than ever (even hard edge modeling) and shaders is all about what the engine is capable of. It doesn't take more artists. Most mid-level companies will use middle-ware engines like Unreal and those tools have improved so much to create AI, scripted events, set up physics etc. etc.

Budgets aren't going to skyrocket like they did last gen. They will go up slightly, but not insanely. If you go over to Zbrushcentral and do a search for Uncharted 2, you can see how high resolution the assets are that they created. We just need hardware to display it cleanly (IQ), with high resolution detail, better shaders (reflections, SSS and so on), much better lighting/shadows and more post processing abilities.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Bleeding edge = bleeding money. If console owners have been content with the current systems for this long, it seems like it would be absolutely idiotic to go build machines and sell them at a loss again. The mass market doesn't even know what cutting edge and they could easily get away with using a 460.

I think anything more than a 6870/5850-grade GPU power is going to be unnecessary. with that kind of power, you're getting 1080p at better than 40fps on just about everything, with all visual details enabled.

that GPU is only $200 or so now...and I expect such a chip in a console can make nextGen consoles much more reasonable than we expect.

$300 consoles next gen at launch. book it.

 

[subversus]

They are going to be next gen consoles it's just a matter on when .
This tech demo is impressive and i really think people don't understand how much power PC GPUs have today.

I don't know, they have to introduce something more than just games to make new consoles successful.

 

[TheExodu5]

I expect most games next gen to be 30 fps at either 1280x1080 or 1920x1080.

Don't be surprised if developers will shy away from 1920x1080.

The same reasons that have made developers use sub-720p this gen, will be present in the next.

Most people are more impressed with more effects and geometry than higher resolution...and the devs know it.

I'm almost certain the majority will shy of true 1080p.

 

[AndyD]

I really want to see a noticeable improvement in graphics though, but nothing drastic like last gen to the current one.

I'm also pretty sure the ps3 launched at $599/£425.

I dont think we will see anything drastic like before. But if they can catch up to modern day PCs, that should be enough. That is smooth solid 1080p.

And there were two PS3 models, one at 499, one at 599. At least in the US.

 

[360]

Just seen the screens. Holy Christ does that look good. The scenes of the city at nightfall look almost real. I was recently playing Unreal Tournement 3 and was in awe how it good the graphics were along with the blazing fast frame rate but these screens blow that out of the water. I would love any (decent) game using this engine.

 

[Man]

Isn't the PSP2 going to be sold at a loss initially? How would that be a cost effective solution?

A smaller loss it sounded like and not for a longer period.

 

[Stallion Free]

A smaller loss it sounded like and not for a longer period.

I don't understand how any tech company thinks that is a wise business practice.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

I'm almost certain the majority will shy of true 1080p.

No reason for that.

Today's $180 GPUs can do 1080p in 99% of games @ 60fps w/Vsync with no problems at all.

Those GPUs will be ~$125 this time next year. Even less next Fall.

There's no excuse for most nextgen games to miss a 1080p target.

 

[Man]

I don't understand how any tech company thinks that is a wise business practice.

Bless them.

 

[TheExodu5]

I dont think we will see anything drastic like before. But if they can catch up to modern day PCs, that should be enough. That is smooth solid 1080p.

And there were two PS3 models, one at 499, one at 599. At least in the US.

Unless the business model is revised, the same thing that happened last gen will happen here. A company like Epic will release a graphical showpiece at sub 1080p and 30fps. Competitor's budgets raise to match Epic, and the only viable projects will be games with similar graphical qualities, running at sub 1080p and 30fps to push all those effects.

What were going to need to see are mid budget games. That is, lower budget games running at 1080p and 60fps, and being released at a lower price than the top tiered titles. The question is, are publishers going to adapt and realize the business model will need to change to accommodate future generations?

 

[Wandering Leopard]

I dont think we will see anything drastic like before. But if they can catch up to modern day PCs, that should be enough. That is smooth solid 1080p.

I would be happy with that, 1080p/30fps as the standard with a lot of effects should look amazing.

 

[Reallink]

I'm being conservative, but I'm not far off.

Again, being conservative:

GTX 580 is 80% faster than GTX 460
GTX 460 is 120% faster than 8800GT
8800GT is 80% faster than 7900GT
7900GT is close to console GPU performance

That's about 7x faster.

If a new console came out in 2013, I somehow doubt the video hardware would be any faster than something like a GTX 460. I don't think they'll be going as bleeding edge as last gen.

GTX460 par in 2013 would be a literal Wii-izing of the generation (if not worse) once you take into consideration everything is shifted 3 or 4 years by the extended cycle.

 

[TheExodu5]

No reason for that.

Today's $180 GPUs can do 1080p in 99% of games @ 60fps w/Vsync with no problems at all.

Those GPUs will be ~$125 this time next year. Even less next Fall.

There's no excuse for most nextgen games to miss a 1080p target.

They're just going to push more and more effects an up polycounts until the resolution needs to be scaled back again. People said the exact same thing last gen. Judging by the release of these tech demos, do you really expect anything else? Epic is already setting a precedent.

 

[Trickster]

They're just going to push more and more effects an up polycounts until the resolution needs to be scaled back again. People said the exact same thing last gen. Judging by the release of these tech demos, do you really expect anything else? Epic is already setting a precedent.

What did people say last gen? All I remember talks about was that this would be the HD gen, which it is, even if it's not 1080p60.

 

[TheExodu5]

What did people say last gen? All I remember talks about was that this would be the HD gen, which it is, even if it's not 1080p60.

Sony, for one, thought their hardware would push 1080p @ 120fps. They didn't expect developers to push visual effects as much as they have.

 

[Lonely1]

That's super conservative in my eyes. The PSP2 is very high end for a portable device yet a cost effective solution.
I think the next gen consoles will be in line with the launch of the current consoles, just no focus on super expensive custom hardware and mediums.
Highly capable, standardized but with a fast decline in cost.

Well, put it like this. A single GTX 460 consumes above 270 watts under load. Lets be optimist and assume a 2x increase on efficiency for 2012. We are talking about 135w for the GPU alone. The 360&Ps3 had heating, noise and size problems at 180w for the whole system.

GTX460 par in 2013 would be a literal Wii-izing of the generation (if not worse) once you take into consideration everything is shifted 3 or 4 years by the extended cycle.

Utter Nonsense.

 

[charsace]

The next xbox will have a video card that is a little better than whatever ATI card is around when its released. You can guess that at least since this is the case with the xbox and the 360.

 

[low-G]

I'm almost certain the majority will shy of true 1080p.

I think you may be right, but it'll be because they'll cut resolution performance because they'll only support 1080p max output. So then when game designers want to push fillrate or whatever other costly pixel effect, they'll end up dropping resolution in some games.

I'd expect the next generation consoles to be absolutely top of the line with visual effects except in terms of resolution.

 

[Stallion Free]

I'd expect the next generation consoles to be absolutely top of the line with visual effects except in terms of resolution.

So will alpha effects be rendered at full or 1/4 resolution? I'm not sure which of those two categories it falls under.

 

[SapientWolf]

GTX460 par in 2013 would be a literal Wii-izing of the generation (if not worse) once you take into consideration everything is shifted 3 or 4 years by the extended cycle.

It's not an apples to apples comparison. Consoles are closed boxes so devs can optimize for them better. A lot of the horsepower gaming PCs have goes to waste because the code is so generalized.

 

[apana]

Wow I found this video of unreal engine 3 on you tube. The future is very bright if games are gonna look like that for next gen consoles:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5XahF-3DWo&NR=1

 

[thuway]

I'm being conservative, but I'm not far off.

Again, being conservative:

GTX 580 is 80% faster than GTX 460
GTX 460 is 120% faster than 8800GT
8800GT is 80% faster than 7900GT
7900GT is close to console GPU performance

That's about 7x faster.

If a new console came out in 2013, I somehow doubt the video hardware would be any faster than something like a GTX 460. I don't think they'll be going as bleeding edge as last gen.

Honestly than don't expect games to have much of a visual improvement at all. If consoles don't go bleeding edge, than most people won't go out and buy them. That will be that.

 

[Blizzard]

Wow I found this video of unreal engine 3 on you tube. The future is very bright if games are gonna look like that for next gen consoles:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5XahF-3DWo&NR=1

That's the GDC demo from last year, and it's been available in the UDK for anyone to download and play with for free for months, I believe. I don't know how long it took to become available, but that's something that makes me optimistic that this year's GDC stuff may again make it into the UDK along with the other upgrades.

If you download the UDK you can just use the game launch thingy and select the map to play in singleplayer mode, I -think-.

 

[Speedymanic]

Demo video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3XeCHywNYM

Legit?

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Demo video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3XeCHywNYM

Legit?

Um probably, watching now.

Mighty impressive. This is what I expect next gen consoles will be able to do.

Big holy shits at that. When games start looking like that, it's over. Hopefully sooner than later.

 

[Sirolf]

Demo video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3XeCHywNYM

Legit?

oO... Holy Mother of f..k