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[Swamped]

Only one death tonight, and it was MattyG, this has to be a wolf kill because of MattyG's soft claim. The other killers who were active on other nights either withheld their kill, ran out if they were X-Shot, were role-clocked or hit an NK-immune. I don't think we have any more doctor roles so I don't think that's what happened. I know I just listed a bunch of options lol...

But UGH. I am so ready for Rats to have more pressure on him. He has been gliding through so far, and I'm disappointed that we weren't able to lynch him D3. He avoids making any stances that bring attention to him, and he has bandwagoned most days, except for D1 where he voted for Ultron, who had claimed a village-aligned PR.

VOTE: Rats Off To Ya

I would also like to analyze the fallout of the Zipped situation more closely, I think there was some wolfy behavior there. I'm in meetings all day today, so maybe tomorrow.

 

[Swamped]

Wait, when did Makai claim? Can someone link me?

 

[Burbeting]

Problem I have with Crimson still living:

Firstly, I believe that the Scums want to keep the Double-vote power alive. Some people in topic have said that the scum want to get rid of it, but I think they want to pass the power to other scums. Having double-power in their side means, that they would be able to use the doublevote at a possibly very important moment, like when town is at LYLO.

In the first night, Drop died. This was not really a gigantic surprise, and I still stand very surely with the fact that Cabot was guarding him, but scum strongman bypassed that guard. If we assume Batsnacks is telling the truth, he could have revived Drop, but went for Ultron instead (a stupid decision IMO). Crimson then became the Sheriff.

Now then, CrimsonFist has had the town-read from most of the game so far, and he has also the power of the sheriff. Timeaisis wrote that the scum wouldn’t bother to target him, and I guess I could agree with it, if he was not seen as town by so many players. The Scums want to kill mostly sure town, and Crimson has fit the bill for the most so far, hasn’t he?

For night 2, it was easy enough to see in hindsight, why Cabot was targeted. He had bread crumped a protective role, and he was deputized. I want to believe that this power of the deputy is the reason, why the scum decided to go for him. And yes, I believe the scum targeted him, with batsnacks as well. I want to almost say, that I’m positively sure about this.

So then, Crimson didn’t die N2, because the Scum decided to go for Cabot. Maybe they hoped that Crimson would be killed by some other killing force, who trusted cabot more than him, who knows? So I made the assumption, that the scum team would be sure to kill CrimsonFist, or even more likely, the next deputy, during the third night, just like Cabot had died. I even mentioned this yesterday:

This is going to get me killed next night, isn't it -__-?

However, come today, neither Crimson, or I, have died. Instead, MattyG is dead. Really, MattyG? As I said, it was not surprising that MattyG was targeted last night, but there were so much more valuable targets for the Scum team to go for!

- There is CrimsonFist, the town Sheriff, who had so far only deputized people who he had seen as town, and who was seen as town by many. If they killed Crimson, but left me alive, the scum might have tried to manipulate me to deputise one of their members.
- Me, the deputy. If my guess is correct that Cabot was primarily killed for being the deputy N2, I would have been N3 target for sure. Also, I have been seen as town by many.

However, the Scum decide to kill MattyG instead. This is just very, very odd movement from the scum team, MattyG had been a very low contributor to the game, and not really helping the town at all. Only thing he had going for was the soft-claim, but judging by how Makai/Dave were later heavily watched from the odd D1 softclaim/baker business, Matty would have later been a point of discussion for the town, a point that would have distracted us from the scumhunt.

So then, why leave me and Crimson alive, especially Crimson who seems to be widely seen as town AND has the doublevote? Assuming that the Scums want the doublevote power for themselves, and not completely eradicate it, this leads into questions. Why was Matty killed, out of all people?

Well, there is the possibility, that Crimson is scum, and that side already has the doublevote. As for letting me live, there is a real possibility that the scum team thought, that it would look suspicious, if deputies kept dying during the nights, yet the current sherrif just keeps on living. You know, to stir the pot?

What I am saying is, killing MattyG does not make sense to me, especially if CrimsonFist is town. Something really weird is going on here.

There is the possibility of another doctor, or switcher or blocker saving Crimson last night. I doubt that there is a switcher though, somehow I have the feeling that Palmer does not like that kind of role? (At least he disliked the scum switcher of mgs). Doctor clone could be a possibility, but I doubt it, blocker would be the best guess.

----

I'm going to look at Rats off to ya! next.

 

[Burbeting]

Wait, when did Makai claim? Can someone link me?

I think he is referencing to that soft-claim in D1, which Makai later clarified as just him trying to protect Dave, because he thought Dave was baker.

 

[Warxard]

I can't check right now to find the post of Makai's claim but I may just be confusing with Zipped.

Man day 3 was a wash but I feel confident that, in that group of ten people I bolded (forgot to bold Trigger) two of them are wolves.

 

[Warxard]

Ahh right. Soft claim, of course.

 

[kingkitty]

Interesting that we only have 1 night kill. Were kills blocked? Did someone use up their multi-shot ability? Was MattyG targeted multiple times?

anywho, I'll have some reads in about 8-10 hours, so stay tuned fam.

 

[Hyperactivity]

Checking in for day 4!

Re: Number of deaths, I'm going to stick to my occam's razor approach, and guess that our mystery killer(s) ran out of shots or decided not to use em. Also I'll re-state that I don't think talking about what may have happened overnight is a good way to spend our time, so that's about all I'll say about that. Let's just not lower our defenses thinking we won't have a repeat of N2.

Hyper and Sawneeks, it's good to have you onboard but as others have said, we're too far into the game for me to consider you clean slates. Neither of you are replacing super trusted players for me.

Town and scum lists coming later. This day phase is going to be disastrous to my activity because weekends are bad times for me. I think I'll be staying home tomorrow though, so here's hoping I'll be able to keep up and post.

Sorry about this, but what was the basis of the votes against GreatLordTiger again??

Inactivity?
A sorta weird post that honestly seemed pretty typical of both new and disinterested players?

Honestly asking here, that's the most I really caught going through the thread

 

[Warxard]

Sorry about this, but what was the basis of the votes against GreatLordTiger again??

Inactivity?
A sorta weird post that honestly seemed pretty typical of both new and disinterested players?

Honestly asking here, that's the most I really caught going through the thread

Inactivity.

 

[CzarTim]

Sorry about this, but what was the basis of the votes against GreatLordTiger again??

Inactivity?
A sorta weird post that honestly seemed pretty typical of both new and disinterested players?

Honestly asking here, that's the most I really caught going through the thread

And his weird role claim post.

 

[Burbeting]

Sorry about this, but what was the basis of the votes against GreatLordTiger again??

Inactivity?
A sorta weird post that honestly seemed pretty typical of both new and disinterested players?

Honestly asking here, that's the most I really caught going through the thread

Voting behaviour was odd in the first day (bandwagoning and then clearly stating that he does not want to bandwagon)

When questioned, turned defensive and even claimed Ordinary, claim that ONLY HELPS SCUM.

Those were the reasons on top off my head.

---

Also, especially since GLT was suspicious about his voting behaviours at the end of D1, it's quite fascinating that his sub completely ignored those, and only talked about the very end results of D1.

 

[Fireblend]

Sorry about this, but what was the basis of the votes against GreatLordTiger again??

Inactivity?
A sorta weird post that honestly seemed pretty typical of both new and disinterested players?

Honestly asking here, that's the most I really caught going through the thread

It's difficult to make the distinction between new anxious players and new scum players. He seemed to react negatively under pressure, was inactive, etc. Dead weight only helps scum, and I hadn't even considered his ordinary claim like Burb mentioned above.

 

[Timeaisis]

Problem I have with Crimson still living:

Firstly, I believe that the Scums want to keep the Double-vote power alive. Some people in topic have said that the scum want to get rid of it, but I think they want to pass the power to other scums. Having double-power in their side means, that they would be able to use the doublevote at a possibly very important moment, like when town is at LYLO.

In the first night, Drop died. This was not really a gigantic surprise, and I still stand very surely with the fact that Cabot was guarding him, but scum strongman bypassed that guard. If we assume Batsnacks is telling the truth, he could have revived Drop, but went for Ultron instead (a stupid decision IMO). Crimson then became the Sheriff.

Now then, CrimsonFist has had the town-read from most of the game so far, and he has also the power of the sheriff. Timeaisis wrote that the scum wouldn’t bother to target him, and I guess I could agree with it, if he was not seen as town by so many players. The Scums want to kill mostly sure town, and Crimson has fit the bill for the most so far, hasn’t he?

For night 2, it was easy enough to see in hindsight, why Cabot was targeted. He had bread crumped a protective role, and he was deputized. I want to believe that this power of the deputy is the reason, why the scum decided to go for him. And yes, I believe the scum targeted him, with batsnacks as well. I want to almost say, that I’m positively sure about this.

So then, Crimson didn’t die N2, because the Scum decided to go for Cabot. Maybe they hoped that Crimson would be killed by some other killing force, who trusted cabot more than him, who knows? So I made the assumption, that the scum team would be sure to kill CrimsonFist, or even more likely, the next deputy, during the third night, just like Cabot had died. I even mentioned this yesterday:



However, come today, neither Crimson, or I, have died. Instead, MattyG is dead. Really, MattyG? As I said, it was not surprising that MattyG was targeted last night, but there were so much more valuable targets for the Scum team to go for!

- There is CrimsonFist, the town Sheriff, who had so far only deputized people who he had seen as town, and who was seen as town by many. If they killed Crimson, but left me alive, the scum might have tried to manipulate me to deputise one of their members.
- Me, the deputy. If my guess is correct that Cabot was primarily killed for being the deputy N2, I would have been N3 target for sure. Also, I have been seen as town by many.

However, the Scum decide to kill MattyG instead. This is just very, very odd movement from the scum team, MattyG had been a very low contributor to the game, and not really helping the town at all. Only thing he had going for was the soft-claim, but judging by how Makai/Dave were later heavily watched from the odd D1 softclaim/baker business, Matty would have later been a point of discussion for the town, a point that would have distracted us from the scumhunt.

So then, why leave me and Crimson alive, especially Crimson who seems to be widely seen as town AND has the doublevote? Assuming that the Scums want the doublevote power for themselves, and not completely eradicate it, this leads into questions. Why was Matty killed, out of all people?

Well, there is the possibility, that Crimson is scum, and that side already has the doublevote. As for letting me live, there is a real possibility that the scum team thought, that it would look suspicious, if deputies kept dying during the nights, yet the current sherrif just keeps on living. You know, to stir the pot?

What I am saying is, killing MattyG does not make sense to me, especially if CrimsonFist is town. Something really weird is going on here.

There is the possibility of another doctor, or switcher or blocker saving Crimson last night. I doubt that there is a switcher though, somehow I have the feeling that Palmer does not like that kind of role? (At least he disliked the scum switcher of mgs). Doctor clone could be a possibility, but I doubt it, blocker would be the best guess.

----

I'm going to look at Rats off to ya! next.

Very good analysis. It is weird neither of you have died (you and Crimson that, is). As I said earlier, I feel like if scum were going to make their move on the Sheriff last night, they'd probably try to kill you both off at the same time. However, if Crimson is scum, obviously they'd just want to off you (or maybe not?).

However, what would scum gain by killing the deputy if the Sheriff were already scum? Well, piece of mind that the double kill wouldn't go to village if ever the Sheriff were killed. So there's that. But, I don't think many suspected Crimson yesterday. But if they were worried about that, they'd definitely go for you sooner rather than later, like last night. But you didn't die. Neither did Crimson. That is weird. Hell, Crimson hasn't died for two whole nights while being the Sheriff.

I have a feeling one of you were targeted last night, because neither of you died. And you are right, that is weird. The more we talk about this, the more I suspect a switcher switched Crimson with MattyG. But that still doesn't account for the (probable) other kill that should've happened last night.

 

[Hyperactivity]

DAY TWO:

Style:

crimsonfirst
xamtheking (henceforth assumed to be town)
fireblend
trigger
batsnacks
makai
Splinter
Swamped
Zippedppinhead
Style

GLT:

burbeting 1280
rats off to ya 1437
mattyg 1546
ultron87 1643
timeaisis 1688

Timeaisis:
fluxwavez

QuantumBro:
czartim

Lollipop Dave:
cabot
septimius prime

CornBurrito:
Kingkitty
GLT (towniest of towns)

Makai:
cornburrito

Xamtheking:
Boo Boo'n

Ultron87:
QuantumBro

Quite a bit tougher imo, but still interesting to look at.

I don't fully trust any of the people voting for GLT. Maybe ultron87?
3 of my possible suspects voted separately from the two main groups on day 2- fluxwavez, czartim, and to a lesser extent, boo boo'n

In the main group, if you assume Xamtheking is town, and, based on reads (ugh), assume crimsonfist and batsnacks are also town, (EDIT: PRETYPED POST, I'LL HEAR THE ARGUMENT AGAINST CRIMSONFIST, think batsnacks is town when I pretyped, NOT SURE ABOUT THIS READ) you're left with fireblend, who I have an eye on, trigger, who I haven't had an eye on, and makai, who is playing like makai does, so who knows??

I think the suspicious Style voters in this group are among the most dangerous, because they're all doing a good job of being town. Said this earlier, but they all remind me of myself as scum

 

[Timeaisis]

*but neither of you died

 

[batsnacks]

So, if there's a roleblocker and they blocked someone last night should they claim? I'm thinking yes.

 

[Hyperactivity]

Voting behaviour was odd in the first day (bandwagoning and then clearly stating that he does not want to bandwagon)

When questioned, turned defensive and even claimed Ordinary, claim that ONLY HELPS SCUM.

Those were the reasons on top off my head.

---

Also, especially since GLT was suspicious about his voting behaviours at the end of D1, it's quite fascinating that his sub completely ignored those, and only talked about the very end results of D1.

On the claim:

No, I totally know what leads an ordinary to claim that way. I did the same thing at the beginning of mgs, when I had been feeling disinterested in the game. Ordinaries screwing up in that way is nothing unprecedented.

Voting behaviors- I have no clue, your guess is as good as mine

What am I supposed to look at? Go through each and every post, keeping track of the timestamps, for each of the 50 pages? That's unreasonable. The end results will still give you a decent idea of what happened, especially if you know the general proceedings of the day

I remember the last time someone came down hard on a replacement for behavior that best can be considered odd (COUGH COUGH that person was scum COUGH COUGH)

But at this point, that's just my feeling on you, nothing much more. I'll have the data to prove it one way or the other eventually

 

[batsnacks]

I thought everyone was suspicious of GLT because he only posted once on day 2 to defend himself.

 

[Hyperactivity]

So, if there's a roleblocker and they blocked someone last night should they claim? I'm thinking yes.

I'm thinking no. Look at the nights we have had multiple kills again.

Night 1 Terrabyte is killed
Night 2 Corn, who had looking suspicious at that point, dies. He's town, but iirc that wasn't the prevailing though at the time

It's likely we had a town vig.

 

[Burbeting]

Very good analysis. It is weird neither of you have died (you and Crimson that, is). As I said earlier, I feel like if scum were going to make their move on the Sheriff last night, they'd probably try to kill you both off at the same time. However, if Crimson is scum, obviously they'd just want to off you (or maybe not?).

However, what would scum gain by killing the deputy if the Sheriff were already scum? Well, piece of mind that the double kill wouldn't go to village if ever the Sheriff were killed. So there's that. But, I don't think many suspected Crimson yesterday. But if they were worried about that, they'd definitely go for you sooner rather than later, like last night. But you didn't die. Neither did Crimson. That is weird. Hell, Crimson hasn't died for two whole nights while being the Sheriff.

I have a feeling one of you were targeted last night, because neither of you died. And you are right, that is weird. The more we talk about this, the more I suspect a switcher switched Crimson with MattyG. But that still doesn't account for the (probable) other kill that should've happened last night.

Thinking about this, these are the reasons why the scum would have let me alive, if Crimson is scum:

1. To stir the pot, after killing Deputy Cabot in N2 (to make sure no suspicion comes to Crimson).
2. To make me look suspicious, as the deputy Cabot had been killed, why was deputy Burbeting alive?

Other than that... not sure at the moment. However, what you said made me think about another possibility, the fact that the scum didn't need to even care about the deputies at that point, if Crimson is scum. Crimson had already town read from majority, so they didn't need to fear of some force like a town sided killer, to kill him. In that case they could just have killed Cabot N2 just because of his doctor breadcrumping, and let me live. Hmmh.

 

[Palmer_v1]

I told people I would include this in end of day posts in case the site drops out, but the turbo means Retro ended the day early. Here it is anyway!

greatlord tiger (0)
burbeting 1807 (2159)
swamped 1812 (1839)
xamtheking 1813 (2145)
zippedpinhead 1816 (1957)
mattyg 1824 (2164)
timeaisis 1889 (2147)

greatlordtiger (0)
zippedpinhead 1815 (1816)

xamtheking (0)
makai 1818 (2199)
fireblend 1842 (2362)
zippedpinhead 1957 (2372)

fluxwavez (0)
batsnacks 1835 (2069)
swamped 1839 (1936)
batsnacks 2356 (2407)

timeaisis (0)
fluxwavez 1869 (2068)
czartim 1870 (1901)
rats off to ya 1871 (2148)
swamped 1936 (2388)
batsnacks 2069 (2103)

lollipop dave (0)
czartim 1901 (1903)

starsketch (0)
czartim 1903 (2155)

batsnacks (0)
septimus prime 2036 (2214)

zippedpinhead (12)
batsnacks 2139 (2187)
fluxwavez 2141 (2337)
xamtheking 2145
rats off to ya 2148
kingkitty 2176 (2301)
makai 2199
timeaisis 2210
septimus prime 2214
boo boo'n 2238
lollipop dave 2248
batsnacks 2294 (2356)
quantumbro 2300
czartim 2313 (2332)
fluxwavez 2350
trigger 2398
batsnacks 2407
zippedpinhead 2423

rats off to ya (2)
czartim 2155 (2313)
czartim 2359 (2371)
swamped 2388
czartim 2390
zippedpinhead 2392 (2395)
zippedpinhead 2395 (2423)

zippedinthehead (0)
boo boo'n 2179 (2238)

quantumbro (2)
burbeting 2352
fireblend 2362
czartim 2371 (2390)
zippedpinhead 2372 (2392)

People with no vote at the end of the day:

CrimsonFist
Ultron87
Starsketch - Now Sawneeks
GLT - Now Hyperactivity
Kingkitty(voted earlier)

 

[Timeaisis]

CrimsonFist didn't vote a all yesterday...

 

[CzarTim]

CrimsonFist didn't vote a all yesterday...

hmmmmm

 

[ultron87]

It was clear where things were going and I didn't want to add anything that would induce Zipped to make good on his stupid threat.

 

[CzarTim]

It really bugs me when people don't vote, but the day ended early so i's not as bad.

 

[Burbeting]

On the claim:

No, I totally know what leads an ordinary to claim that way. I did the same thing at the beginning of mgs, when I had been feeling disinterested in the game. Ordinaries screwing up in that way is nothing unprecedented.

Voting behaviors- I have no clue, your guess is as good as mine

What am I supposed to look at? Go through each and every post, keeping track of the timestamps, for each of the 50 pages? That's unreasonable. The end results will still give you a decent idea of what happened, especially if you know the general proceedings of the day

I remember the last time someone came down hard on a replacement for behavior that best can be considered odd (COUGH COUGH that person was scum COUGH COUGH)

But at this point, that's just my feeling on you, nothing much more. I'll have the data to prove it one way or the other eventually

I know it's unfair to pile up on the replacement about their previous incarnation's behaviour, but we are now in mid-game, so it just cannot be completely missed.

End results do give you a decent idea, but you could read the last two hours or so of the first day, and the last 30 minutes of the second day.

As for GLT voting patterns in D1, these posts are the one's I mean:

First vote, was done an hour before the day ended:

I'm voting Xam just gotten bad vibes with him all day with the role claim and following Cabot. The vote should be at 6 Xam and 5 Darrly with this vote

VOTE: Xamtheking

This one was still mostly articulated, GLT had reasons to vote for Xam here. The biggest reasoning was that Xam was basically bandwagoning/copying Cabot's votes, + the claim.
However...

Vote: Ultron87

I'll see where this leads

This is very clearly a bandwagoning vote. He does not justify it at all, and just goes with the crowd. Some other people did so too, but this was GLT's reaction later, when Darryl was now going to be lynched:

Ok so its decided Darrly I won't vote him because I don't want to hop on the wagon

A complete 180 about bandwagoning again! It's like he completely ingored his very own vote for Ultron, and just decided to mention again that bandwagons are bad, because ???. There was only 15 minutes between the two posts above me.

---

Now obviously, I won't be asking you to tell me why GLT did those things. But I hope you do understand, that GLT was not suspicious only because of his inactivity (in that case we all would be jumping on QuantumBro right now, even though his laptop is broken).

 

[CzarTim]

I guess I could see a scenario where scum has a 1-shot strongman and the town confirmed sheriff deputizes a scum who has been town read by a lot of people leading to this scenario.

I could also see scum leaving him alive to instill doubt. Getting to end the game a day early would be nice, but it's not necessary. They could just as well leave it be.

 

[Burbeting]

It really bugs me when people don't vote, but the day ended early so i's not as bad.

Crimson did mention that he wouldn't most likely going to make it till the end of day? So I at least felt, as he deputised me quite early. So if he was not going to make it, ending the day prematurely was not going to affect if he was going to vote or not.

 

[QuantumBro]

I'm in the process of typing up my thoughts, but I have two questions...
1. Where did MattyG softclaim?
2. Do we think there's three or four mafia members remaining?

 

[Hyperactivity]

Uh... this Rats Off To Ya bandwagon seems kind of weird.

Huh

 

[Burbeting]

I'm in the process of typing up my thoughts, but I have two questions...
1. Where did MattyG softclaim?
2. Do we think there's three or four mafia members remaining?

1.

As for people who are talking about voting for me, I'm going to bed right now so I may not be able to mount a defense before the deadline, but I will say this (and this may be a huge mistake, but I need to say it); I can easily prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that I'm not scum.

2. I actually think there might be five members remaining, which is worrying.

 

[Hyperactivity]

I know it's unfair to pile up on the replacement about their previous incarnation's behaviour, but we are now in mid-game, so it just cannot be completely missed.

End results do give you a decent idea, but you could read the last two hours or so of the first day, and the last 30 minutes of the second day.

As for GLT voting patterns in D1, these posts are the one's I mean:

First vote, was done an hour before the day ended:



This one was still mostly articulated, GLT had reasons to vote for Xam here. The biggest reasoning was that Xam was basically bandwagoning/copying Cabot's votes, + the claim.
However...



This is very clearly a bandwagoning vote. He does not justify it at all, and just goes with the crowd. Some other people did so too, but this was GLT's reaction later, when Darryl was now going to be lynched:



A complete 180 about bandwagoning again! It's like he completely ingored his very own vote for Ultron, and just decided to mention again that bandwagons are bad, because ???. There was only 15 minutes between the two posts above me.

---

Now obviously, I won't be asking you to tell me why GLT did those things. But I hope you do understand, that GLT was not suspicious only because of his inactivity (in that case we all would be jumping on QuantumBro right now, even though his laptop is broken).

I read through it, don't worry. Darryl does weird self-voting, xamtheking bandwagon got steam, followed by ultron87 wagon gaining steam then losing it (nice thing is Rats was on this far before the wagon was made, I can ignore the context because of this)

I think GLT was an easy vote that scum easily could have hidden in, or tried to go after because "look at me I'm so towny I'm leading the charge for reasons that seem half-assed (imo)"

Because GLT's voting was at best described as weird, and nothing particularly scummy, imo

 

[Hyperactivity]

I told people I would include this in end of day posts in case the site drops out, but the turbo means Retro ended the day early. Here it is anyway!

greatlord tiger (0)
burbeting 1807 (2159)
swamped 1812 (1839)
xamtheking 1813 (2145)
zippedpinhead 1816 (1957)
mattyg 1824 (2164)
timeaisis 1889(2147)


zippedpinhead (12)
batsnacks 2139 (2187)
fluxwavez 2141 (2337)
xamtheking 2145
rats off to ya 2148
kingkitty 2176 (2301)
makai 2199
timeaisis 2210
septimus prime 2214
boo boo'n 2238
lollipop dave 2248
batsnacks 2294 (2356)
quantumbro 2300
czartim 2313 (2332)
fluxwavez 2350
trigger 2398
batsnacks 2407
zippedpinhead 2423

rats off to ya (2)
czartim 2155 (2313)
czartim 2359 (2371)
swamped 2388
czartim 2390
zippedpinhead 2392 (2395)
zippedpinhead 2395 (2423)

quantumbro (2)
burbeting 2352
fireblend 2362


People with no vote at the end of the day:

CrimsonFist
Ultron87
Starsketch - Now Sawneeks
GLT - Now Hyperactivity
Kingkitty(voted earlier)

Perfect, let's have a look at this:

Pretty much the same group from day 2 who voted for me voted for me on day 3.
Except, me being subbed in forced everyone out of what seemed to be the secondary bandwagon. I got replaced at post 2136, so Burbeting, mattyg, xamtheking, and timeaisis are the ones that can be described as having to "flee" from voting for me

Burbeting voted QuantumBro for asking for the names Zipped saw
Timeaisis piled onto the zipped pile
Xamtheking piled onto the zipped pile
mattyg is dead so who cares

Now I personally have a town read on Xamtheking (he's a little too eccentric for me), so I'm limiting it to just Burbeting and Timeaisis, but paying attention to Swamped too (she unvoted quickly, but was still in the semi-pile).

Timeaisis, Swamped, Burbeting. Of these three, Timeaisis jumps out at the moment of being the scummiest (might go through all of his posts a little later). Burbeting and Swamped both fall under the category of town leaders I don't trust

 

[QuantumBro]

1.


2. I actually think there might be five members remaining, which is worrying.

Thanks! I think six might be a bit much since these games usually have 24 players of which 4 are mafia. Five members would make sense for a game with 30 players.

 

[CrimsonFist]

CrimsonFist didn't vote a all yesterday...

Seeing as Zipped is fairly close to the majority threshold, I feel like I should address the deputy thing now, on the chance that he gets a majority whilst I'm asleep and it ends up being left to RNG.

So the options I see are:

Give it to someone I trust as town. Right now I trust Burbeting, but I'd also be open to giving it to Batsnacks after his role claim, or if people want to nominate someone else.

Give it to Zipped as Flux suggested, so that it dies with him. This is risky this far from the deadline, seeing as there's always the chance of a vote swing. If I did this, I'd also want to throw down my double vote on him too, to reduce those odds, but I'm reluctant to do that since I see no benefit in ending the day faster.

I'll check back in an hour before I go to sleep, and go with whatever the consensus seems to be.

I didn't vote because at the time Zipped was near the majority threshold and I saw no reason to hammer him.

 

[Hyperactivity]

Thanks! I think six might be a bit much since these games usually have 24 players of which 4 are mafia. Five members would make sense for a game with 30 players.

5 or 6. Maybe even 7, depends on what roles the scum got (how powerful they are)

5/30 is only about 16% of the playerbase. Possible with a strong scum team
6/30 is 20%
7/30 is 23%

 

[Burbeting]

Because the beginning of the day has been actually pretty fruitful in the sense of amount of discussions we’ve had, I’m actually only going to do the thing now, that I was originally going to have as my first post (if I would have survived N3).

You see, I think today is my optimal time to roleclaim my role, because if I die before revealing it, the town might not use the information I have as efficiently as I would hope, especially looking at how people have been completely oblivious to things about Cabot even after he flipped doctor.

Here goes: I’m a Town Sided Voyeur. My role is that I can watch people during night, and see what night actions are made onto them during the night itself. This is a role, that was in Werewolf One, but there it was a scum-sided role, which made me feel a bit more vary about claiming this role. Voyeur could be partly worthless role for the town, as I basically could only see, what town PR’s have been active in this game. However, I think I have been able to obtain some valuable information from the past three nights, which are able to at least partly to bring some more evidence to the events of the game, particularly Night 2.

So then:

Night 1 – Makai – No one visited
I voyeured Makai in Night 1, because of his soft-claim during D1, that made me assume he and Lollipop Dave are Lovers. I was originally going to voyeur Drop the first night, but the soft claim made me change my mind. However, no one visited, no scum or no town. This made me actually a bit angry, because I had basically wasted the first night, so I tried to press on Makai and Lollipop Dave about the claim. Because why was there no scum visit, if they would have thought that the two might be lovers?

Night 2 – Cabot – Visited by KILL and STRONG KILL
I voyeured Cabot, because I got the feeling that he was a doctor, because of his breadcrumping. And he was actually visited by two killing powers: A normal Killing Power, and a Strong Kill. What this means is:
1. There is a Strongman in the game. I heavily believe it is part of the Scum Team.
2. Batsnacks is most likely telling the truth, which is why I have believed his claim so strongly.
I’m going to talk more about the implications of this, but I think the N2 is most important piece of information I can give at the moment.


Night 3 – CrimsonFist – No one visited
As I said earlier, I thought the scums would target either me or Crimson N3, but there was absolutely no-one there. No Scums trying to kill, nor any switchers trying to switch, or any sort of healing powers trying to heal. There was no one. This was part of the reason why I’m suspicious at CrimsonFist at the moment. Only possibility here is that his killer was blocked, so I wouldn’t have seen anyone. But as of right now? It looks most likely that he was not targeted by the scum at all.

---

I was originally going to claim at day three, because the discussion about Cabot was going so haywire, and most of all many people were trying to ignore the possibility of a scum strongman, or at least trying to downplay it! However, I knew for a fact, that the strongman exists, and at the moment the only other people who this fact as well, are scums (Assuming the strongman is part of the Wolves, which I heavily think is so). This is also why I’m still very suspicious of the people either
a) Biting the narrative that Cabot must have guarded someone N1
b) Ignoring the Strongman outright
Because the Scums would want to keep their PR as a secret.

The fact that strongman exists heavily implicates, that the Scums did kill drop N1, using strongman to bypass Cabot’s protection. I also stated earlier, that I think the scums primarily killed Cabot N2 because he was deputy for the reason that they used Strongman again to kill him! If they were 100% sure Cabot was Doctor, they might have used some other killer than the strongman there, especially if strongman has limits (like 3-shot or something?). But they used him here, which heavily implicates, that Cabot was killed for being the deputy.

So then, that brings me back to my earlier point. Why am I not dead, and why is CrimsonFist not dead? N2 heavily implicates to me, that the team scum did not take any risks on getting Cabot killed, yet in N3, they did not even target CrimsonFist at all (if there was no roleblocking at play).

More: My N2 findings of Cabot being targeted by two killers makes Batsnacks roleclaim much more believable. Batsnacks never said, that his only kill was a strong one (why would it be?), so it means that his kill was the normal kill one of the N2 Voyeuring I saw. Which means, I believe that Batsnacks is telling the truth on his roleclaim, and I believe that he did save Ultron N1.

---

You guys might disagree with me claiming now, but I seriously doubt that my role could help much more in later nights. At worst I could see town PR’s at work (Which hasn’t happened yet), which is information, that would only help the scum. But I think, that N2/N3 information is going to help figuring out what had happened, and even helping to figure out N1 partly.

Another post will follow soon.

 

[Burbeting]

Some people that I think vary of due to all of this:

Fluxwave & Fireblend - Both bit the narrative I baited at the start of D3, that Cabot must have protected during N1. This was before batsnacks claimed, and this narrative could have helped to hide the strongman.

Timeaisis

snip

In this post, Time seemingly goes through all the possibilities, ignoring the Strongman possibility completely, even though I had already mentioned it. Why? Why did he ignore it, that's something only the scums would actually benefit from. Even in this post:

Problem is, we have no way of vetting bat's roleclaim. No one knows if ultron was actually targeted except the person doing the targeting.

Bat's could just as easily be lying. My megapost above shows that either way, everything is consistent because we don't know about the other killer role.

Not that I'm saying he's lying, but food for thought. His claim doesn't really fill any gaps in the story, as far as I can tell.

He keeps not mentioning the possibility of the Strongman, even though in this case I had rementioned it just few posts earlier.

 

[Makai]

Thanks, Burb. I trust you and Batsnacks.

 

[CzarTim]

Ok, that's super interesting.

I actually want to go back and see who didn't believe bats killed cabot since scum would have thought it was them.

 

[Timeaisis]

Sorry, I keep forgetting about the strongman, Burb. It still only accounts for N1, though.

I'm not trying to ignore it as a possibility or anything.

 

[Burbeting]

Sorry, I keep forgetting about the strongman, Burb. It still only accounts for N1, though.

I'm not trying to ignore it as a possibility or anything.

It accounts for N2, as well. You know, the night that you mostly used to make Batsnacks look scummy in your big post I quoted?

 

[Xamtheking]

And the game finally kicks into gear

 

[Timeaisis]

Sorry, still reading your post.

 

[Burbeting]

Thanks, Burb. I trust you and Batsnacks.

I'm still vary of you, due to that soft claim. Why did the scum completely ignore you and Dave, the possible lovers (at that time?). Only one who knew what the claim was truly about, was you. If the scums had two kills, why didn't they go for the "lovers"?

 

[Xamtheking]

I'm still vary of you, due to that soft claim. Why did the scum completely ignore you and Dave, the possible lovers (at that time?). Only one who knew what the claim was truly about, was you. If the scums had two kills, why didn't they go for the "lovers"?

You might be reading too much into this
Also, thank you Burb, you are best Voyeur 2015

 

[FluxWaveZ]

So that's why you were so adamant on there being a strongman. Funnily enough, your story seems to somehow match up with batsnacks'...

Unless this is some elaborate hoax. Both you AND batsnacks pulled this "stunt" during the previous day:

Fluxwave & Fireblend - Both bit the narrative I baited at the start of D3, that Cabot must have protected during N1. This was before batsnacks claimed, and this narrative could have helped to hide the strongman.

And despite suspicion landing on me and Fireblend, somehow you and batsnacks didn't suspect each other despite pulling whatever "bait-and-switch" story you were both going for.

There's some implicit trust thing going on between the two of you. If you're Town, it's probably because of batsnacks' role claim that matched up with what you supposedly saw.

I'm not convinced you're town, or that batsnacks is. If one of you flips wolf, I'll probably be inclined to believe the other is, too.

Whatever the case is, Rats Off To Ya is our target. All we've managed to turn against are Town so far; we can change that today.

 

[Burbeting]

You might be reading too much into this
Also, thank you Burb, you are best Voyeur 2015

You think so?

In N1, there was only one really good target available, Drop. If we make the assumption, that the scum have two KP's, who else could they have targeted?

Just someone on random?
Or the one claim made at that point, a claim that actually pointed at a role, that would get two people killed at the price of one.

 

[Burbeting]

So that's why you were so adamant on there being a strongman. Funnily enough, your story seems to somehow match up with batsnacks'...

Unless this is some elaborate hoax. Both you AND batsnacks pulled this "stunt" during the previous day:

And despite suspicion landing on me and Fireblend, somehow you and batsnacks didn't suspect each other despite pulling whatever "bait-and-switch" story you were both going for.

There's some implicit trust thing going on between the two of you. If you're Town, it's probably because of batsnacks' role claim that matched up with what you supposedly saw.

I'm not convinced you're town, or that batsnacks is. If one of you flips wolf, I'll probably be inclined to believe the other is, too.

Whatever the case is, Rats Off To Ya is our target. All we've managed to turn against are Town so far; we can change that today.

Batsnacks claim matched with what I had seen N2. I had no reason at all to distrust him at that point, and I have no reason to distrust him now (Even if I think reviving Ultron over Drop was a stupid, stupid move).

 

[Burbeting]

Also to that batsnacks gambit yesterday: I was annoyed when he did it, and I actually called him from it.

Yeah, I agree with you here, it's a good possiblity. I went through some of the same thoughts in the previous page.