Skiesofwonder
Walruses, camels, bears, rabbits, tigers and badgers.
:lol This is so spot on!!!
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Wii U Speculation Thread 2: Can't take anymore of this!!!
- Thread starter ClovingWestbrook
- Start date
- Status
:lol This is so spot on!!!
What I'm getting right now is GAF is playing Sudoko with news, seeing if a string of verified and rumor reports line up, then they check out as true, which they then proceed to the next question (I believe this is what Beyond3D also did with their WiiU assesment based on developer claims).
This thread has become amazing.
AceBandage
Banned
Yes.
Given what we know and what he said, it seemed fairly reasonable to assume one or the other was true.
Not enough ThunderMonkey innuendo.
GameplayWhore
Member
I'm rather shocked that I can find no flaw in his logic.
I mean, even if he mailed it to Evilore, it could be somebody else's
shinra-bansho
Member
(Pardon my ignorance: Is IdeaMan a developer/someone with confirmed access to a devkit?)
At the new rumored $300 pricepoint, given that Nintendo historically do not adopt the razor and blade model.
Take away retailer margin, Nintendo's margin and the other costs associated with production and distribution.
What would be a reasonably guestispeculation on the BoM for:
And what would one expect from that BoM for the console alone, in terms of processors and RAM etc., for a mass production consumer device?
At the new rumored $300 pricepoint, given that Nintendo historically do not adopt the razor and blade model.
Take away retailer margin, Nintendo's margin and the other costs associated with production and distribution.
What would be a reasonably guestispeculation on the BoM for:
- Console + Controller
- Console alone
And what would one expect from that BoM for the console alone, in terms of processors and RAM etc., for a mass production consumer device?
AceBandage
Banned
Rumor: Wii U to be weaker than the PS1.
Not easy to guess without knowing what is in either.
A fairly basic controller could cost anywhere from $40-60 to make.
The console it self... Yeah, who the hell knows at this point.
HOLY SHIT WII U TO BE WEAKER THAN PS1!
Aren't they, like, currently taking a loss on the 3DS?
I don't think Nintendo is completely against selling things initially at a slight loss and using economies of scale and production expertise to bring the costs down. What they won't do is lose a ridiculous amount per unit like Sony did on the PS3.
I would not be at all shocked if Nintendo took a loss on the Wii U at launch to get it into as many hands as possible before the other two launch.
pieatorium
Member
We don't actually know anything though. All we have are rumours, even Lhere who is probably the most reiable source of rumour information we have can't be taken as gospel because it still is exactly that. Unconfirmed rumour information.
That's basically where I'm at. It's all about the controller and the new styles of gameplay it will make possible. The middleware makers say it can run their engines just fine, so I'm really not concerned about power. Power alone never sold systems nor made the best games.
Bingo. I mean, yes, I'm curious to see what Nintendo is bringing out in terms of an online solution and all that - in fact, it's one of the things I'm most interested in. But at the end of the day, it's about the controller and what interesting new things they can do with it.
In addition, it's about whether the circle pads on the controller are equivalent functionally to analogue sticks. If they're not? Power is a moot point to discuss.
pieatorium
Member
Yes this is where everyone should be imo. As long as WiiU has the goods to get third party multiplats + whatever exclusives and nintendo games it should be a great time for all.
Yeah that stood out to me too. However, lherre seems to continually downplay the wii u or at least keep reminding us to keep our expectations in check. This may be because he has a better idea what MS and Sony are targeting or because he personally doesn't feel it's a full generational leap and is thus a bit disappointed. Ideaman might just be more easily impressed. They could very well be opposite sides of the same coin.
shinra-bansho
Member
From my understanding, I believe the 3DS is the first time they've ever taken a loss on hardware - but I could be mistaken.
I'd imagine that they're taking a loss on 3DS hardware, would actually make them less inclined to take a loss on the Wii U though - but that's just imo.
You're right in that they may be making bank off the razor and blade model with the 3DS, and are now less averse to loss leading.
3DS hardware is expected to begin pulling a profit in April, meaning nintendo will have made a loss on hardware for roughly 9 months. It seems like a reasonably small timeframe to make a loss and may have been why the price cut was so drastic. IIRC, there was a story awhile back that said Iwata was contemplating whether or not they should sell Wii U at a loss. If they do decide to sell at a loss, I don't expect that loss to be substantial or long lasting.
Gamecube made slight losses on hardware
shinra-bansho
Member
Hmm.
Do you mean the WiiU controller would be $40-60 or a standard current gen controller?
Pure speculation then, possibly (probably) way off:
Retailer margin = $10
Nintendo margin = $10
Manufacturing, shipping, distribution = $10
Controller components = $60
What would people expect from a $210 BoM for the console components alone?
(At a higher price point - say $350 - what would people expect from a $260 BoM?)
I wouldn't take that rumor without a bucket of salt. It first showed up at some blog, citing a source who nobody can vouch for. Hell, I doubt even Nintendo knows what the exact price will be yet. Not unless it's launching in June or something.
My curiosity in regards to power is more of a vested interest in seeing that Wii U will get games from the big guys as well as the devoted (and awesome) little guys who've kept the 3rd party torch from going out completely in the GC and (more prominently) the Wii days. It might be a bit of wanting to have every card lined up so "not powerful enough/can't run our engines [as we'd like them to]" can't be called against a desire to see certain software on the system.
Then again, multiple consoles always saves the day. I just hate coming in LTTP on them sometimes. :lol
Someone posted a patent gif a few pages back of drawing to influence a 3D space as a gameplay possibility and now I'm dying for an RPG or Adventure game where you can literally warp the nearby world, carving chunks of it to use in other parts or using spells to alter the scale of something in front of themselves. Sure these are more single player uses but it's cool to think about.
I'm also wondering if it's possible to make a good design out of a combination of 2D side scrolling style gameplay and the "seeing eye window" that the controller could be to influence the path the avatar character would move along.
I just hope that they don't get too comfortable with this business model. Raise the price, cut the power.. but profit per unit is preferred in my book. I want them to be around when I'm 80.
I want to be playing new Zelda and Mario games in 50 years. If it takes them a bit longer than the competition to reach those crazy levels of power in a financially sound manner, then so be it. I'm a patient man.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
$300 just seems like the price point to me. The uTab is going to make it hard though, but I also don't think Sony and MS are going to Aim for the Top either.
We do have public statements by third party developers and insiders that directly contradict Arkam's statements. His first post wasn't so much bashed for its weak depiction of the system, as it was for its complete lack of context. It could almost be considered reasonable if you could assume that he also knew what the other consoles' specs were. His follow up statements on the system's power still flies in the face of even the most pessimistic of rumors.
$300 - 350 is seriously the best price range they can hit over the mass market price of $249 they established with Wii that doesn't step into "lol keep that shit" territory for a lot of folks that aren't the enthusiast set. Furthermore, I'm almost willing to bet that even at $300, there's enough of a profit to be made contrary to thoughts that such a "low" price would indicate getting less out of the system.
Getting that all out of the way, before I click that link, I hope this is a reference to what I think it is.
*clicks link*
Good job.
Edit: There's a pretty NSFW moment in that OP though, might want to just switch to the theme itself.
pieatorium
Member
THeres plenty of PR that gets put up all the time that doesn't really follow up. His followup was actually well in line with what other rumours have said (~1gb ram, GPU better at least on paper than the 360) albeit on the lower end. Seemed like pretty much people only remember the downport comment and not what he actually said. He also specifically said he was speaking for an older dev kit.
... I swear, I miss all the best shit in this thread when I'm at work. Catchup time!
First, I want to apologize for re-visiting the Eternal Darkness discussion, but... some people have their favorite games of that gen, and this is in my Top 5 across all platforms, so I really want to chime in.
No, it's not complicated at all. Nintendo owns the name, the sanity meter mechanic, the original's content is theirs as they are the publisher... they own it. Any statement to the contrary is Dyack being.... well, Dyack.
So yes, it's Nintendo's to do with as they see fit.
As has been said, the tricks were really only a shock-value-added treat. It was so well-loved because it understood that you have to put HORROR in a horror game, and Resident Evil just wasn't delivering anymore.
A playthrough on YouTube with a strategy guide in front of them isn't going to convey why it was so good. This was a game that punished AND rewarded you simultaneously for not relying on reading up on how to play through it on the internet. The struggle, and the effects to the atmosphere that came from the struggle in the form of over-amplified dread and horror to the setting that came with sanity drops, rewarded you with a more engrossing game overall. It was just a fantastic design decision.
You have some good ideas there. There's a lot of possibilities for what to do with an ED game now that we're out of traditional gamepad territory control-wise.
This could have something to do with it.
You make a strong point there. Perhaps Silicon Knights recognizes this and that's exactly what they're doing.
*PHEW* Now that I got all that out of my system, it's time for the good stuff...
The IdeaMan quotes require no re-quoting at this point.
I have no problem believing there's 2GB of RAM in the system. At all. Because I'm sure there will be a bottleneck in there SOMEWHERE to even everything out. Just like I expect from the others in next gen. I think they'll all get something right and totally cripple themselves fundamentally elsewhere so they all end up close to the same arena, no matter what's on paper.
So a standard generation of consoles, essentially.
The only turnaround in coverage would be journos turning emo that Sony and MS got beaten at the "arms race" by Nintendo BY ACCIDENT. They'd still slant their coverage, but they'd just be whiny little shits about it, covering Nintendo prominently like someone is literally holding a gun to their head.
I do. Anyone who operates within the published consensus gets the benefit of the doubt until something concrete proves me wrong.
First, I want to apologize for re-visiting the Eternal Darkness discussion, but... some people have their favorite games of that gen, and this is in my Top 5 across all platforms, so I really want to chime in.
No, it's not complicated at all. Nintendo owns the name, the sanity meter mechanic, the original's content is theirs as they are the publisher... they own it. Any statement to the contrary is Dyack being.... well, Dyack.
So yes, it's Nintendo's to do with as they see fit.
As has been said, the tricks were really only a shock-value-added treat. It was so well-loved because it understood that you have to put HORROR in a horror game, and Resident Evil just wasn't delivering anymore.
A playthrough on YouTube with a strategy guide in front of them isn't going to convey why it was so good. This was a game that punished AND rewarded you simultaneously for not relying on reading up on how to play through it on the internet. The struggle, and the effects to the atmosphere that came from the struggle in the form of over-amplified dread and horror to the setting that came with sanity drops, rewarded you with a more engrossing game overall. It was just a fantastic design decision.
You have some good ideas there. There's a lot of possibilities for what to do with an ED game now that we're out of traditional gamepad territory control-wise.
This could have something to do with it.
You make a strong point there. Perhaps Silicon Knights recognizes this and that's exactly what they're doing.
*PHEW* Now that I got all that out of my system, it's time for the good stuff...
The IdeaMan quotes require no re-quoting at this point.
I have no problem believing there's 2GB of RAM in the system. At all. Because I'm sure there will be a bottleneck in there SOMEWHERE to even everything out. Just like I expect from the others in next gen. I think they'll all get something right and totally cripple themselves fundamentally elsewhere so they all end up close to the same arena, no matter what's on paper.
So a standard generation of consoles, essentially.
The only turnaround in coverage would be journos turning emo that Sony and MS got beaten at the "arms race" by Nintendo BY ACCIDENT. They'd still slant their coverage, but they'd just be whiny little shits about it, covering Nintendo prominently like someone is literally holding a gun to their head.
Yeah, they have. "GCN hardware spec sheet not an indicator of raw performance" hits me first and foremost in memory.
I do. Anyone who operates within the published consensus gets the benefit of the doubt until something concrete proves me wrong.
Isn't that basically what I said?
From my perspective, I could totally see Nintendo push a bit harder on the hardware and sell it initially at a loss for the sake of penetration. They have only so much time to get consumers and 3rd parties onboard before the other two show up. They need to establish the system as a convenient baseline for development earlier rather than later.
@ HylianTom: I highly doubt Nintendo will ever get comfortable with the razors 'n' razorblades model. It's actually not a horrible model so long as the loss is reasonable and/or short-lived. Losing substantial sums of money over years, however, would be stupid as hell for any company to do again in this industry.
Nintendo would only pull a 599 on a system if it had reinvented the very concept of what it meant to play a video game. It would take an unbelievably amazing innovation in order to create something that could be sold at that price point.
No. This is what he said:
There is just no reconciliation there... especially in light of the conversation this thread had already had on how dev kits are built. He'd have to have been working from one of the very first dev kits for this to mesh, but then he described it as being "current."
Fourth Storm
Member
I think they're going to recant and sell the tablet separately at launch for about $80-$99. That should make them a profit by some estimates. Nintendo must have heard the complaints by now.
pieatorium
Member
That quote is exactly what I said, he's talking about there current one not the new one everyone else is talking about. It has 1gb ram, gpu that is decent on paper but not performance.
Isn't that basically what I said?
From my perspective, I could totally see Nintendo push a bit harder on the hardware and sell it initially at a loss for the sake of penetration. They have only so much time to get consumers and 3rd parties onboard before the other two show up. They need to establish the system as a convenient baseline for development earlier rather than later.
Yeah I was just elaborating on what you said. Really though, anything can happen. Nintendo is such a crazy wild card. So many people think they have them pegged but I think that's just a consequence of the Wii having been their last console and people having short memories.
The quote can be taken to mean a alot of things. The current dev kit model they have could be several models behind as Nintendo prioritizes heavily who gets the newest kits. It is a fault that Nintendo has that I do think they need to fix.
Hell, they saw what it did to 3DS. They said they won't repeat the same mistake.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
Basically, the appeal of the Wii U is based on the ability of a boy to draw Pokemon for you.
GameplayWhore
Member
He said he was a former games journalist who's trying to get into the industry itself, and he happens to have some sources.
I can say this much about the controller:
Android tablets with 7" resistive touch screens probably cost under sixty and maybe even under fifty bucks to build nowadays, depending on how much profit margin devices like the ones linked have on them. The devices have GHz microprocessors, wifi chips, a couple hundred megabytes of memory and a couple gigabytes of storage built in, as well as a rather sizeable battery. Oh, and a camera and orientation sensors (this one linked is a bit spotty on these two points, but I've seen other tablets in the $70 region that most certainly have them.
The Wii U controller will be much like this tablet, except that it has a smaller screen, no cpu (just far simpler hardware for demuxing the video signal so it can be displayed), no onboard RAM and likely a much less onboard storage. The battery may also be smaller. It will have different wireless, and it's hard to tell if that component will be more or less expensive. It also has buttons and slide pads and a stylus.
Granted, Nintendo's device will have much better QC, but I would think that with much less internal hardware and a smaller form factor, it should be much less costly to construct than the prices that these cheapo tablets are selling for unless it has something crazy like the fairy magic that lets you feel the screen.
bgassassin
Member
Yeah I pointed out the dev kits in one of my posts.
And I can't accept the latter.
I'd believe the opposite in that 25GB/s or less would be a waste for the CPU (and GPU).Yeah about the only other thing I remember from the Cafe thread was the other fake specs that had Wii U having XDR2 memory I believe.
Slow down sir! Let's enjoy that they are listening to third parties before we take any other steps.
Actually they said by October. So it could still see a few more months of losses.
Wii was $250
There are no credible rumors of the system being less powerful than the 360, nor does the dev kit have 1GB jive with any other suggestions of the final system having about 1GB. And "decent on paper but not in performance" is not the same as "good and efficient, just not that powerful." The earliest rumors put the system as 1.5 times more powerful than the 360 and he was questioning even that. Absolutely nothing post-E3 suggests anything like what he described and all of those would have been based on those old "current" dev kits too.
GameplayWhore
Member
It's amazing how consistent they've been. Their first system, which also reinvented the concept of what it meant to play a video game, was $250 as well.
edit: hrm, at least I'm 87% sure there was a $250 sku in addition to the base $200 unit. A quick look back disagrees with me. Perhaps I fib?
pieatorium
Member
Which rumours do you consider credible and which not? How do we decide? Is it only the positive rumours that are credible? His comment about less powerful was then specifically followed up with a qualifier about scaing back the game and not about the specs, which he then listed.
I'm not saying he is right I am not saying the other rumours are wrong I am not bashing nintendo, all I am doing is trying to take all the rumours as exactly what they are, rumours.
I don't even know what to say to this.
Lherre also, from what I remember, mostly downplays the GPU talk. If he's not openly downplaying IdeaMan's suggestions, lherre either:
a) Doesn't discount the assertions about RAM but feels something else holds it back a bit
or
b) Hates us all and gets sick gratification watching us all twist in the wind.
Either or.
Sure it is! Haven't you ever heard that ol' intertube chestnut "pics or it didn't happen"?
Well, I'd say considering we have journos, developers on record and developers off-record here on GAF all saying, in quite large numbers, that it's a positive (but maybe not TOO positive) leap in kit....
Sometimes, if everyone is saying the same thing, it's usually true. And right now, everyone is saying "temper your expectations for WiiU, if not all next-gen systems in general, but we like what we see/hear." Except for a few outliers who get smaller and smaller in number as we go forward.
Wii was their first $250 system, iirc all their previous home consoles launched in the $200 range. So they are generally consistent, they just raised the price with the Wii.
GameplayWhore
Member
I double checked. NES had a $200 sku and a $250 sku. GAF's favourite data collection wiki has that on its list, as does a few other sites. I was uncertain at first, because Wikipedia said otherwise.
(edit: that $250 sku included a controller that you pointed at the screen; funny, eh?)
The other consoles were all $200 at launch.
It sold out for two to three years straight. That's the opposite of overpriced.
It was sold for a very large profit, though.
- Status