Deadline/Variety are sticking with their $120-140M range.
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Wkd BO 0310-1217 - Giant gorilla, just like in one of those old video games, king
- Thread starter xaosslug
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Deadline/Variety are sticking with their $120-140M range.
That would be insane. Just beating BvS $165m for March record would be insane.
That seems too low now. Thinking somewhere in the middle around $150-155m.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Judging by reviews on Beast, it might not have the same legs as the last couple live action adaptations. But, if the opening is as beastly as predicted, it won't really matter.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Beauty stayed the Bat.
hodayathink
Member
Except that the thing about Logan/Deadpool that made them large successes to the point of wanting to emulate them were their budgets, not their rating. The takeaway here if you're a company looking to make money shouldn't be that you should/have to make your movies R-rated, it should be that you don't have to make a $150-$200 million superhero movie where the world is at stake in the third act, that you can make a more personal movie at $50-100 million and possibly still make just as much, if not more money in profit. There are tons of comic book characters and stories that can be explored without ever having to touch an R rating.
Edit: In other words, that an R-rated X-Men team movie isn't going to be or do better because it's an R-rated movie. Figure out the story, find a creative who is passionate about telling it, and try to keep the budgets down where you can. If that involves an R-rating, then so be it, but adjust expectations (and budget) accordingly.
Fancyarcher
Member
Eh, reviews won't probably matter as much this time. The film could still end up with a 3X multiplier.
smokeymicpot
Beat EviLore at pool.
Movie is gonna be huge. Reviews could be all 4/10s it won't matter. If it the story is close to the original and has all the same songs. It won't matter.
As long as the production and marketing budget for the film is sky high as well.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
The Jungle Book only has slightly better legs than Maleficent despite receiving higher praise form critics. Of course Jungle Book opened to a much bigger haul and grossed more WW.
However like you said it probably won't matter much. The opening will be huge.
catashtrophe
Member
I agree, looking at what Fox has done with Deadpool and now Logan it shows you don't need to always make these huge $150+ million CBMs and that you can do just as well if not better with smaller scale movies
If the film actually ends up with a $175M opening, a 3x multiplier is $525M. that would be pretty crazy.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I could see the 170 opening.
I bet it doesn't get that 3x multiplier though.
Maybe a domestic total between 420-450.
I bet it doesn't get that 3x multiplier though.
Maybe a domestic total between 420-450.
this 2 pics need to be shared here
this one is to long to post here, so I'll just post the link
http://i.imgur.com/Da2164l.jpg
Variety/Deadline are reporting an expected overseas take of around $120M for Beauty and the Beast this weekend.
They have consistently under-estimated openings these past few weeks. I think they had Logan at $170M WW, and it debuted over $240M. Kong was placed at $110M, and it opened to >$145M. I expect that Beauty and the Beast will follow suit.
$120M overseas seems pretty low for a film that is heading towards at least a $40M opening in China.
They have consistently under-estimated openings these past few weeks. I think they had Logan at $170M WW, and it debuted over $240M. Kong was placed at $110M, and it opened to >$145M. I expect that Beauty and the Beast will follow suit.
$120M overseas seems pretty low for a film that is heading towards at least a $40M opening in China.
LordOfLore
Banned
DeathoftheEndless
Crashing this plane... with no survivors!
Reviews have been up for a while.
LFMartins86
Member
First? There have been loads for the past few weeks. It's on 68% on Rotten Tomatoes with 118 reviews.
LordOfLore
Banned
Turns out I was off the net the day the thread went up and missed it all. Sorry!
I don't understand where this hype is coming from either. It looks thoroughly mediocre.
With a lot of these movies, so many people who grew up with the animated classics don't want to miss the remake.
My wife's friends already have a girls night planned since they saw the original together when they were kids...
Bobby Roberts
Banned
(Shrug) "90s kids, I guess?"
(Shrug) "I guess"
(Sigh) "push it on out there, then"
This is partially why I think the legs won't be there. I'm not hearing a lot of positive word of mouth from older fans. They'll show up on opening weekend and bail out. I'm not sure the younger fans will pick up a lot of that slack, because apparently this version of the story is a lot longer, not as fun, and when you make this story live action, the weird kidnapping/bestiality aspects of it start feeling... differently than they do in full animation.
Keep in mind, even if that paragraph there sounds negative, I feel like that paragraph is still going to equal north of $400 mil domestic, easy.
DeathoftheEndless
Crashing this plane... with no survivors!
I honestly don't think its going to get hammered in reviews. The trailers show it'll at least have a decent amount of fun. I'm expecting an RT% in the 40s or so.
Power Rangers is riding the same nostalgia wave as ID4 2. Guaranteed success.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I remember thinking that was going to be way bigger than it was.
I almost forgot it even happened until you just mentioned it.
I remember considering it for the worst cinema experience I'd had.
I bought a ticket for Independence Day (the first one) the day before that film was supposed to come out, and they came into the screen and said they couldn't get that working, so they showed the new film instead.
Not an enormous buzz around people I know for Beauty and the Beast, but I'm interested in seeing how it does
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
ID4 2 was such an embarrassing performance, selling 1/6th the admissions of the first domestically.
boxoffice.com has it at $40M OW/$105M total domestic. I haven't seen much else in the way of tracking. It's both not large enough for presales several weeks before release and 5th in the lineup of expensive March films this year. We will probably have to wait another week or so before deadline or variety chime in.
Caught it on Netflix not too long ago. It's mind numbing just how horrible it is. The characters are flat as a board, they managed to make the somewhat enjoyable characters from the first film a complete nothing, the dialogue is below Battleship level, they managed to suck out all the fun from a big budget popcorn flick.
Will Smith made the right decision to pass.
Which is sad since IDR had a better critical reception than Suicide Squad. Squad made a lot more money though, so overall the right call.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
Oh, we're talking ID4-2?
I'll just leave my spoiler post on it here. And then you think: "this has to be the worst editing I've ever seen". And then you get hit by Suicide Squad.
Excuse me while I go severely poison my liver.
Speaking of booze shortage, have you good people seen the latest Resident Evil? Because that happened. I think. I don't know, my liver is pretty drunk from all this shitty editing.
And of course, the theatrical cuts of Ghostbusters 2016 (that came out) and Spectre, the worst Bond movie after Roger Moore. That happened. After the wonderful Skyfall too, like, how?
I mean, what's the point of making a movie when the studio doesn't even provide sufficient time to actually edit all that footage into an actual movie? Editing matters, man.
(which is the primary reason why I like The Accountant: from the first minute on, you know the editor is doing his / her job, and doing it well. It's weird, but that's what I look for in movies now...)
okay, I'll just let you guys get back to your sales that are ruining movies. Aside from Disney that is. (and I may not be entirely drunk joking about that last one)
At least I can now remake They Live: "I'm all out of booze and awkwardly stumble. And I'm all out of booze."
I'll just leave my spoiler post on it here. And then you think: "this has to be the worst editing I've ever seen". And then you get hit by Suicide Squad.
Excuse me while I go severely poison my liver.
Speaking of booze shortage, have you good people seen the latest Resident Evil? Because that happened. I think. I don't know, my liver is pretty drunk from all this shitty editing.
And of course, the theatrical cuts of Ghostbusters 2016 (that came out) and Spectre, the worst Bond movie after Roger Moore. That happened. After the wonderful Skyfall too, like, how?
I mean, what's the point of making a movie when the studio doesn't even provide sufficient time to actually edit all that footage into an actual movie? Editing matters, man.
(which is the primary reason why I like The Accountant: from the first minute on, you know the editor is doing his / her job, and doing it well. It's weird, but that's what I look for in movies now...)
okay, I'll just let you guys get back to your sales that are ruining movies. Aside from Disney that is. (and I may not be entirely drunk joking about that last one)
At least I can now remake They Live: "I'm all out of booze and awkwardly stumble. And I'm all out of booze."
Question is if the movie will work as well overseas as Lucy did.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I'm gonna stick with the $575M I predicted earlier, off ~$200M opening. I could be putting too much stock in the online hype (I've certainly done that before!) and assuming this will attract all audience quadrants more than it will, but I can't shake the feeling this run is going to be something special. But I won't be disappointed if it makes "only" $150M this weekend. The legs are another question mark, but Alice in Wonderland got a 2.9 multiplier and I don't think most audiences are going into this asking for more than "It's Beauty and the Beast, but live action."
Some updates from deadline: http://deadline.com/2017/03/beauty-and-the-beast-weekend-box-office-selling-out-1202045224/
Some updates from deadline: http://deadline.com/2017/03/beauty-and-the-beast-weekend-box-office-selling-out-1202045224/
The Strokes
Banned
Was talking to someone about this, he said he thinks the movie can make it to the all time Top 5 (not adjusted for inflation) but I'm on the Deadline boat, feel like the movie's gonna slightly underperform with Kong dominating international BO at the moment and still yet to open in China.
If Scarjo wasn't in Ghost I bet we would be looking at a Ben Hur level flop from it. It looks terrible, but she is quite a draw as Lucy proved so seems like it might not completely crash and burn.
BronsonLee
Member
Wkd BO 03•18-20•17 - Giant Gorilla Kills Single White Female
Beren the Empty-Handed
Member
Any guesses as to why they've been underestimating lately? Or is that normal this time of year?
Wkd BO 0318-2017 - Disney owns the box office, tale as old as time.
Diprosalic
Banned
the fuck. i didn't know this was going to be this huge.
Moana finally passed $600M
The trades like Deadline tend to stick to studio tracking even when it's clear a film is building momentum in that week or two before release.
They were still selling Logan as $60-70M after the excellent reviews started pouring in.
The trades like Deadline tend to stick to studio tracking even when it's clear a film is building momentum in that week or two before release.
They were still selling Logan as $60-70M after the excellent reviews started pouring in.
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