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So, when do you expect PS5 and the Xbox One successor tba? And what specs?
- Thread starter Insane Metal
- Start date
Which is around 3x ps4 pro which is around 12 Tflops. You might see 15 Tflops at best if the process is good, AMD make further power consumption improvements and HBM is used.
I can see HBM being used and you can see how much that makes a difference to power consumption when you look at Fury vs Hawaii.
OTOH if Sony/MS go with Zen based cores there will be less space for the GPU so it will need to be clocked higher relative to the current consoles.
It's all a trade-off and I think expecting more than 12 Tflops (fp32) is just asking to be disappointed.
ethomaz
Banned
I guess you get wrong my comment... I don't believe 7nm to be ready in 2019/2020... I don't believe even 10nm to be ready next year (that why nVidia will probably use the TSMC 16nm 4th Gen aka 12nm)
Last time I checked a roadmap, which was a while ago, 10nm was being skipped for GPUs. Maybe it was just GF doing that and going straight to 7nm.
Head.spawn
Junior Member
Very strong possibility that is the case. I wouldn't be shocked there.
Imperfected
Member
My only real expectation is that the successor to XBox One is named XBox Too: XBox Won?! (with the punctuation in the title).
If they're going to name their consoles poorly they need to go full Fast and the Furious and embrace it.
If they're going to name their consoles poorly they need to go full Fast and the Furious and embrace it.
th4tguy
Member
I doubt it. I'd be ok with 16GB of faster ram.
dragonyeuw
Member
Shit, I honestly feel like this gen is just getting its legs under it and clearly separating from last gen( for the past year at least) . PS5 isn't a blip on my radar even if its a couple years off.
Hidden One
Member
I don't wanna see a PS5 till at least November 2020.
Another new U.S. president and a new PlayStation console in the same month would be nice.
Oh boy, this is interesting, and relevant. Building blocks for PS5 and a future Xbox?
Certainly, that means the AMD Navi GPU architecture ^
https://www.overclock3d.net/news/cp...a_exascale_mega_apu_in_a_new_academic_paper/1
"and future consoles"
Discuss!
Certainly, that means the AMD Navi GPU architecture ^
https://www.overclock3d.net/news/cp...a_exascale_mega_apu_in_a_new_academic_paper/1
"and future consoles"
Discuss!
Then 20TF GPUs, for sure, by that time.
chaosmaster(1)
Member
I think both MS and Sony will launch next gen consoles in 2020. I also think they'll be 12 tf.
Iacobellis
Junior Member
Oh, so Scorpio isn't a next generation console now?
brickarts295
Member
It's not, but I think MS wants to convince us that it is. They really just want this gen to be over XD
rokkerkory
Member
Buncha youtube vids saying ps5 in 2018? Wth lol
2blackcats
Member
Ha, no way. Announced maybe if they want to Scorpio it 18 months ahead of release.
goldenpp72
Member
I think we'll see a PS5 release by 2019 at the earliest, I actually don't think there will be an Xbox successor in the traditional sense, but rather devices that run Xbox as a service (computers, and of course a dedicated box)
Hungry Ghost
Member
I thought Scorpio was a new console, not just an upgrade like ps4pro.
I'm hella behind the loop.
I'm hella behind the loop.
I think we will see something named a PS5 in 2019, but it will just be another upgrade of the PS4. Same with MS a year later. New name, but essentially it will be the upgrade to Scorpio. It will be at least 5 years before MS or Sony truly start a new gen. I think this upgrade cycle of new hardware that still works with early PS4 and Xbox 1 will continue for quite awhile.
goldenpp72
Member
Anything can be anything, the Switch is a new console despite not being extremely powerful compared to its older brother, the PS4 Pro is quite a bit more powerful than PS4, but Scorpio is said to be a bit stronger than that.
Those systems will be in the same 'generation' spec wise, and MS has said all games will run on Xbox one still, leaving people to assume its a similar situation to PS4Pro. The whole 'new gen' thing comes from the fact the specs are stronger, but nothing MS has said has implied otherwise.
I personally think if the thing is successful in a big way (it won't be) that they would then try to move away from the bottleneck of the Xbox One, but yeah.
Smokey_Run
Member
I don't know about specs, but I suspect Sony will announce in 2019, it'll be 6 years at that point. 2020 at the latest. Same release schedule as the PS4, announce and release same year.
goldenpp72
Member
They would likely still have a disc drive for the sake of Blu Ray/DVD and such, so that wouldn't be an issue. I doubt they intend to do this though, the entire point of Nintendo doing it was to have a mobile system.
Jack The Nipper
Banned
2020 is a little late.
Needs to be 2019 with a decent launch and new titles.
Just make sure all ps4 games work day one with possible hardware improvements on all games or where possible.
Needs to be 2019 with a decent launch and new titles.
Just make sure all ps4 games work day one with possible hardware improvements on all games or where possible.
Apoleptica
Banned
The sooner the better. I think people are forgetting these things launched 2013/2014. Four years for a console cycle should be long enough imo.
Gamezone
Gold Member
UHD probably? Vanilla 50 GB is getting too small, even this gen.
Fredrik
Member
Where's the rush? They've just launched the Pro and started getting the first wave of AAA 1st party games out. I'd honestly be pissed if PS5 comes in 2 years. 2021 is my guess. Enough time for at least one more AAA release from all 1st party devs and some time to prepare for the PS5 launch as well.
Given that Mark Cerny is on record describing his definition of a generation change for consoles, PS5 won't be another PS4 upgrade.
I agree with others saying a 2020 announcement with a 2021 release date.
This is kind of what Don Mattrick tried to do originally with the Xbox One and it ended up blowing up in Microsoft's face. Ever since, Phil Spencer & Co have done everything they can to try and rebrand the Xbox One as a hardcore gaming machine first and a set-top box second.
It hasn't really worked out, because there's only so much you can do when presented with the challenge of trying to sell an under-powered console with few worthwhile exclusives (compared to the competition) as "the best place to play games". This is why we're getting Scorpio, I'm guessing it'll basically be a relaunch of the X1. They'll finally be able to shake off the ghost of Don Mattrick and actually be able to promote the X1 as the most powerful console on the market.
Sure, they'll keep the One S around as budget-friendly alternative, but be prepared for MS to push the Scorpio as a games-first machine. I think the future of the Xbox brand will be determined by how successful the Scorpio is.
This is kind of what Don Mattrick tried to do originally with the Xbox One and it ended up blowing up in Microsoft's face. Ever since, Phil Spencer & Co have done everything they can to try and rebrand the Xbox One as a hardcore gaming machine first and a set-top box second.
It hasn't really worked out, because there's only so much you can do when presented with the challenge of trying to sell an under-powered console with few worthwhile exclusives (compared to the competition) as "the best place to play games". This is why we're getting Scorpio, I'm guessing it'll basically be a relaunch of the X1. They'll finally be able to shake off the ghost of Don Mattrick and actually be able to promote the X1 as the most powerful console on the market.
Sure, they'll keep the One S around as budget-friendly alternative, but be prepared for MS to push the Scorpio as a games-first machine. I think the future of the Xbox brand will be determined by how successful the Scorpio is.
GamerMax73
Member
Whatever Sony are doing it was decided upon and has been worked on since atleast PS4 launch, if not a little earlier.
For launch windows I think you need to "follow the games", after all it is all about the games at the end of the day - hardware is useless without them!
Sony have a good games line up for PS4/Pro up to and including Death Stranding and Last of Us 2. These are in the 2019/20 time frame from what we know now. PS4Pro with that game line up is strong enough to hold off Scorpio for the time being. So Sony don't need new hardware that desperately.
However, a post Last of Us 2 games line up on 2013 PS4 hardware seems extremely unlikely. If MS do a good turn around on 1st party titles for the Scorpio, then the platform is open to gaining a lot more traction without a strong Sony competition.
So, I tend to think 2019/20 for the PS5 with possible Death Stranding and Last of Us 2 already being developed as cross-gen titles.
For specs, I think with Cerny in charge, and a close working relationship with AMD, it'd be an evolution of the current PS4 architecture. And I agree with others, whatever AMD can deliver to match the $399 launch price point. I think the wider question is the status of the then only 3/4 year old PS4Pro post PS5. Is it a clean fresh start, or will development still be encouraged for the Pro for a couple of years longer?
I also agree with others here that MS are more focused on their Windows Store and killing Steam than what Sony are doing with the Playstation. MS are more focused on Apple than any other competitor and really hate the fact they don't have the kind of total platform control that Apple enjoys.
For launch windows I think you need to "follow the games", after all it is all about the games at the end of the day - hardware is useless without them!
Sony have a good games line up for PS4/Pro up to and including Death Stranding and Last of Us 2. These are in the 2019/20 time frame from what we know now. PS4Pro with that game line up is strong enough to hold off Scorpio for the time being. So Sony don't need new hardware that desperately.
However, a post Last of Us 2 games line up on 2013 PS4 hardware seems extremely unlikely. If MS do a good turn around on 1st party titles for the Scorpio, then the platform is open to gaining a lot more traction without a strong Sony competition.
So, I tend to think 2019/20 for the PS5 with possible Death Stranding and Last of Us 2 already being developed as cross-gen titles.
For specs, I think with Cerny in charge, and a close working relationship with AMD, it'd be an evolution of the current PS4 architecture. And I agree with others, whatever AMD can deliver to match the $399 launch price point. I think the wider question is the status of the then only 3/4 year old PS4Pro post PS5. Is it a clean fresh start, or will development still be encouraged for the Pro for a couple of years longer?
I also agree with others here that MS are more focused on their Windows Store and killing Steam than what Sony are doing with the Playstation. MS are more focused on Apple than any other competitor and really hate the fact they don't have the kind of total platform control that Apple enjoys.
TheCrackInTime
Neo Member
Calling it now. PS5 will release on 3rd December 2019 to coincide with PlayStation's 25th Anniversary.
D
Deleted member 465307
Unconfirmed Member
I expect PS5 in 2019 or 2020, with 2021 being the latest. A three- or four-year hardware refresh pace for generationversion 1.5generation sounds good to me. I think the release will depend on 1) Is Zen ready for for a console APU? 2) Is Navi ready for a console APU? 3) Is 10nm or 7nm ready for manufacturing? 4) Do all those things combined result in a significant jump over PS4 Pro? If not, the cycle repeats with the next architecture and/or the next node, and the Pro and Pro get new Slim versions while Sony waits.
For Xbox, I think generations are already fading. I think you'll see Scorpio's successor in 2020 or 2021 and support for Xbox One will cease soon after. I think Scorpio will hang around until the next revision (2024/2025) unless PS5 is far beyond Scorpio, in which case it'll stick around for two more years and get the cross-gen PS4/Pro versions.
For Xbox, I think generations are already fading. I think you'll see Scorpio's successor in 2020 or 2021 and support for Xbox One will cease soon after. I think Scorpio will hang around until the next revision (2024/2025) unless PS5 is far beyond Scorpio, in which case it'll stick around for two more years and get the cross-gen PS4/Pro versions.
People guessing anything less than a 15 TF GPU in 2020 (assuming AMD is used again) are insane and aren't looking at 1.) previous generational leaps in performance and 2.) currently available tech. You're telling me that's the best Sony or MS can come up with? Is that how low our standards are? Do you realize that a GTX 1080 (equivalent to roughly a 12 or 13 TF AMD card) is merely adequate for native 4K games at 30 fps as is? How about when you consider expected advancements in global illumination, physics, geometry complexity, shadows, shaders, etc? It's also worth a reminder that the jump from 1080p to 4K requires a lot more relative GPU power than the jump from 720p to 1080p. 1080p is 2x the pixels of 720p, whereas 4K is 4x the pixels of 1080p.
Expect something in the 16 to 20 TF range.That would be around the same leap as from PS3 to PS4.
Also, to whoever said they'll have 16 gbs of RAM... just no.
PS5: October, 2020. 16-18 TF. $449.
Xbox Banana or whatever dumb name they'll come up with: Don't know and, as a PC gamer, don't care. That's IF the brand is still around in the first place.
Expect something in the 16 to 20 TF range.That would be around the same leap as from PS3 to PS4.
Also, to whoever said they'll have 16 gbs of RAM... just no.
PS5: October, 2020. 16-18 TF. $449.
Xbox Banana or whatever dumb name they'll come up with: Don't know and, as a PC gamer, don't care. That's IF the brand is still around in the first place.
Nestunt
Member
I don't think we should calculate these timelines with PS4 Pro in mind. And I don't think Sony is doing that.
The Pro is the deluxe edition that is catered to an audience that would buy a new console whenever.
The timeline must have OG PS4 as a calibration point because that's the way bigger install base and tech base developers want to make games for. If that base starts becoming constrained for a minimum quality product, developers will ask for the launch of PS5.
The Pro is the deluxe edition that is catered to an audience that would buy a new console whenever.
The timeline must have OG PS4 as a calibration point because that's the way bigger install base and tech base developers want to make games for. If that base starts becoming constrained for a minimum quality product, developers will ask for the launch of PS5.
brickarts295
Member
The year is dead on in my opinion but I doubt Sony would want to miss out on BF sales, its gotta be November. Then they'll party hard during PSX that year.
6 years is fair and good enough for another $400 console. As for the specs, I'm not a tech guy, but I hope they can improve on whatever improves frame rate for games. I'm starting to think PS4 Pro is a small prototype so that Sony could potentially get 4k/30-60fps games and 1080p/60fps on PS5
meanspartan
Member
I realize people have been saying the current gen was underpowered from the start, but the Ps4 at least has barely hit its stride in my view, and graphics are totally fine right now, they still manage to wow me a lot. I say wait until 2021 or 2022, so the new GPUs can support full 4k.
I expect rumors of the PS5 in 2018. My theory is that Scorpio will have enough edge in hardware specs giving it the best looking games. Sony will want to slow/deaden it's impact by starting/encouraging PS5 rumors. Maybe the console will release as early as winter 2019.. maybe.
Jaguar Victory
Member
I thought they were on the "apple approach" of not announcing early. At least that's what they said when xbox announced Scorpio.
TheCrackInTime
Neo Member
In a regular year I'd agree, but I don't think Black Friday is particularly relevant in the context of a console launch. Assuming they don't make the same mistakes they made with the PS3 launch, they're going to sell whatever they ship pretty much immediately, so why not skip BF and have the news cycle all to themselves? PSX could even double up as the world wide launch event.
AzureFlame
Member
PS5 2020, Xbox Dragon 2020, Nintendo Switch Plus 2020.
dragonelite
Member
Somewhere in 2021.
Here's the thing - console-level GPUs / APUs shouldn't have much trouble running AAA games at native 4K in 2019 and especially 2020, so we shouldn't have to wait until 2021 or 2022 for that.
However, there is a point about waiting until 2021 or 2022. If we want both native 4K resolution and a big leap in graphics fidelity, then it might be better to wait that long.
2021-2022 time frame would allow for the 5nm process with Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.
Global Foundries, Samsung and TSMC's 7nm FinFET process is said to be more like 10nm in terms of transistor density (correct me if I'm wrong), much like the current 16/14nm FinFET processes are based on 20nm. So hopefully their 5nm process will allow even more transistors, etc.
My main point is, why bother releasing consoles with 8-12 TFlops in 2019-2020 if all they're really going to do GPU wise is do games that look like current generation at native 4K, with little overhead for better graphics. Sure, having new CPUs based on Zen will help in other areas, and HBM2 will also provide much more bandwidth than GDDR5.
But I don't think it would be good if the leap from PS4 to PS5 was smaller than the leap from PS3 to PS4.
Of course, developers would be able to do a lot more targeting consoles with even 10-12 Tflops than they can with PS4's 1.8+ and Xbox One's 1.3, especially given that there are obvious contrains with PS4 Pro's 4.2 (games must run on base PS4), and even with Scorpio's 6 TF, games have to be made with Xbox One in mind, unless Microsoft really changes its policy on that.
Personally, I'm thinking PS5 could arrive no earlier than November 2019, and probably not later than November 2020.
I wonder if anyone is going to ask Shu Yoshida this year what he thinks about the possibility of a PS5. It's been about roughly 10 months since he famously said "IF" on the question of PS5.
http://www.ign.com/articles/2016/04/20/shuhei-yoshida-reportedly-unsure-if-there-will-be-a-ps5