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Official December NPD HW Prediction thread (Today's the day)

K

Kurosaki Ichigo

Member
Predictions
1. NDS - 1.950.000
2. PS2 - 1.400.000
3. GBA - 1.300.000
4. 360 - 1.150.000
5. PSP - 950.000
6. WII - 800.000
7. PS3 - 550.000
8. GCN - 120.000
9. XBX - 5.000

Reasons, uh...the real deal are NDS and PS2, GBA on Christmas is always strong, 360 leading next-gen but not on fire, PSP going slowly down as a pricedrop should be near...Wii and PS3 selling every console they can get to stores, but I dunno about their production issues so huh...
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
DS 1.5m
PS2 1.2m
GBA 1m
360 900k
Wii 750k
PSP 700k
PS3 1m

DS will do good numbers but limited by supply. I think it caught Nintendo out and combined with massive demand in Japan and Europe I don't think it'll hit 2m

PS2 - sure there are shitloads, but do people really still want them? Although with everythign else in game stores likely sold out, perhaps people will still pick them up. Bit like the strangely instane performance of the GBA

GBA - same thoughts as above.

360 will do 900k. Thats about double November. Its not the hot ticket anymore and its big releases (GoW and Viva Pinata?) may have created a disproportionately large November figure.

Wii will not do the numbers it could potentially because of Nintendo not being able to ship enough following launch.

PSP - will sell more than expected due to no DSes being in shops so will get collatoral sales

PS3 - I think Sony will be the opposite and actually have their supply chain more ramped up. Although uptake might be slower than expected as people wouldn't have expected so many units in the channel, so goodness only knows what the real number will be. TBH I mainly put that number because of the drama it'd cause if it were true :)
 
P

Parl

Member
Odysseus said:
Should I say my goodbyes now or wait two weeks until it's official?
Click to expand...

Say goodbye now, because in two week, you'll have no reason to say goodbye. 360 will sell 1.4ml, tops, but I've got it down at about 1.2ml.
 
B

bud

Member
¤Ai®MåSt£®¤ said:
DSL - 1M
Wii - 900k
PS2 - 800k
360 - 580k
PS3 - 250k
PSP - 200k
Click to expand...

loltruckjesus.gif
 
S

Saoh

Member
ok, mine:

DS 1.9M
PS2 1.3M
360 1.2M
GBA 1M
Wii 780K
PSP 670K
PS3 560K

ok, thing is, GBA is always strong in the US for some dumb reason. its like people dont understand that the DS plays GBA games too. let it die already and buy DS's instead :/ PS2 will come in second obviously and Wii and PS3 are going to sell every single unit in store.... thing is, we dont know how the shipments are going. X360 has Gears of War this holiday, that should help.
 
T

threeball

Banned
jon61586 said:
Why is the 360 going to do worse than the original xbox when all year it has done better than it?
Click to expand...

For what reasons? There is no reason in my opinion that it is going to top 1 million. If someone had a good, solid reason I would jump on it, but I can't find a good reason why it would sell 1 million at $400.

Anyone want to take me on with my bet? 360 over 1 million I am banned for a week, 360 under 1 million anyone who wants to take me on is banned for a week.

I think most people are predicting on what they WANT to happen rather than what they THINK will happen, which is why people are predicting the 360 sales to be so high.
 
D

Dega

Eeny Meenie Penis
threeball said:
For what reasons? There is no reason in my opinion that it is going to top 1 million. If someone had a good, solid reason I would jump on it, but I can't find a good reason why it would sell 1 million at $400.

Anyone want to take me on with my bet? 360 over 1 million I am banned for a week, 360 under 1 million anyone who wants to take me on is banned for a week.

I think most people are predicting on what they WANT to happen rather than what they THINK will happen, which is why people are predicting the 360 sales to be so high.
Click to expand...


I could care less about how it sells but.....


IM DOWN WITH THIS! :lol
 
J

jon61586

Member
threeball said:
For what reasons? There is no reason in my opinion that it is going to top 1 million. If someone had a good, solid reason I would jump on it, but I can't find a good reason why it would sell 1 million at $400.

Anyone want to take me on with my bet? 360 over 1 million I am banned for a week, 360 under 1 million anyone who wants to take me on is banned for a week.

I think most people are predicting on what they WANT to happen rather than what they THINK will happen, which is why people are predicting the 360 sales to be so high.
Click to expand...


Well for one it outsold the original xbox in its second November when it was $200
 
J

jett

D-Member
I guess i'll do this shit too

DS 1.95 million
PS2 1.17 million
GBA 950k
PSP 820k
360 780k
Wii 650k
PS3 600k
 
P

psycho_snake

I went to WAGs boutique and all I got was a sniff
sonycowboy said:
4) HW Sales last month (courtesy of NPD)
DS 918K
PS2 664K
GBA 641K
360 511K
Wii 476K
PSP 412k
PS3 197K

6) ALSO: Refrain from posting any non-publically disclosed NPD numbers (like the full HW sales listings that used to be on the board) as that's just going to get you banned.
Click to expand...
What is the difference between the HW sales that you've posted and the ones that your telling us not to post?
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
psycho_snake said:
What is the difference between the HW sales that you've posted and the ones that your telling us not to post?
Click to expand...

NPD released the numbers I posted to NeoGAF as well as other media outlets. They've been doing that kind of PR release for several months now. My warning was to not repost the Oct-2000 -> Nov 2006 listings of every platform for every month in the columnar format or any portion of that listing unless you can reference a legitimate news site that posted those numbers as well. If it's out on legitimate media sites, it's fine to post.

As far as discussing when platforms went over 1M or 2M in the past, onesy-twosy's are fine, but we can't post the exact numbers in bulk anymore.
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
psycho_snake said:
What is the difference between the HW sales that you've posted and the ones that your telling us not to post?
Click to expand...
One was publically disclosed and the other was not.
Those HW sales numbers were publically available on major sites and here on neogaf.
 
L

lix2k3

Member
DS 1.6 mil - just because its the ds
PS2 1.4 mil - people still want this aging console because its dirt cheap, great gift
GBA 850K - because the u.s. just doesn't get it
360 820K - the 360 will perform like this until a price drop, it cant be #1 at 399
PSP 600K - less than half of ds's sales seem likely
Wii 250K - consumer demand great, will sell every system
PS3 200K - Sony's shipping problems will continue well into summer 07 if you ask me
GC 150K - Game cube gets the usual christmas boost
XBOX 10K - Are there still xbox's in existence..
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
DSL 2.2 million
GBA 1.5 million
PS2 1.3 million
360 1 million
PSP 800k
Wii 750k
PS3 400k

360 just cracks a million, but it's not easy to sell a $400 machine when it's not the hot new thing. PS3 and Wii shipments are less than a lot of people think.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Bud said:
you're gonna get banned
Click to expand...

I really want to take the bet, but I just don't have the guts. I think it's relatively safe to assume it will sell 1 mil, but the 360 has continually cost me in the NPD prediction threads.

Well, whatever, I can still call him delirious without having to take the bet. YOU'RE DELIRIOUS TOO, BUD.
 
D

donny2112

Member
GhaleonEB said:
They were low and not worth even tracking any longer.
Click to expand...

Xbox, yes. GameCube, I feel, should still get to six digits for December, so that's definitely worth tracking. Maybe not so much in 2007, though. :)
 
J

jimbo

Banned
donny2112 said:
Xbox 360: 3.404 million

PS3:
Nov-06 196,580

Wii sales 476,140

At least we have something to talk about now. ;)
Click to expand...

Japan through Dec 24th:
360: 248k
PS3: 386k
Wii: 823k

US + Japan known Totals:

360: 3.650 million
PS3: 583 thousand
Wii: 1.299 million

Does anyone have accurate or close estimated numbers for NA and/or Europe?
 
S

SephCast

Brotherhood of Shipley's
Estimates on CNBC said this for the holiday season (November 1st - December 25th)

360 - 2 Million
Wii - 1.8 Million
PS3 - 750 Thousand

Subtracting the November numbers out of those, you get these numbers for December:

360 - 1.49 Million
Wii - 1.32 Million
PS3 - 553 Thousand
 
J

jarrod

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
It was never released. Publicly.

They were low and not worth even tracking any longer.
Click to expand...
GameCube was relealed in a Nintendo PR (it was 69k iirc). Xbox is nowhere to be found... it really couldn't be more than a few thousand I think.
 
B

Branduil

Member
SephCast said:
Estimates on CNBC said this for the holiday season (November 1st - December 25th)

360 - 2 Million
Wii - 1.8 Million
PS3 - 750 Thousand

Subtracting the November numbers out of those, you get these numbers for December:

360 - 1.49 Million
Wii - 1.32 Million
PS3 - 553 Thousand
Click to expand...

Uh-oh. :lol
 
F

FirstInHell

Banned
threeball said:
For what reasons? There is no reason in my opinion that it is going to top 1 million. If someone had a good, solid reason I would jump on it, but I can't find a good reason why it would sell 1 million at $400.

Anyone want to take me on with my bet? 360 over 1 million I am banned for a week, 360 under 1 million anyone who wants to take me on is banned for a week.

I think most people are predicting on what they WANT to happen rather than what they THINK will happen, which is why people are predicting the 360 sales to be so high.
Click to expand...

I accept.

I will bet you a ban for a week as well as the loser has to have an avatar picked for him by the winner. The loser has to stay with that avatar for 6 months.

Do your worst.
 
T

thestopsign

Member
SephCast said:
Estimates on CNBC said this for the holiday season (November 1st - December 25th)

360 - 2 Million
Wii - 1.8 Million
PS3 - 750 Thousand

Subtracting the November numbers out of those, you get these numbers for December:

360 - 1.49 Million
Wii - 1.32 Million
PS3 - 553 Thousand
Click to expand...

That is not very likely. The 360 is not going to sell 1.5 million (and if it does, it is because the world hates Odysseus). The Wii will definitely not sell over 1,000,000 unless the demand has been fooling us all this time, and Nintendo really has shipped the amount they said they would ship by 2007. The PS3 could do around that number, maybe even a little more.

Hardware
------------------
Nintendo DS - 1,730,000
Sony PSP - 950,000
Nintendo GBA - 951,000

Sony PS2 - 1,050,000
Nintendo Gamecube - 120,000
Microsoft Xbox - 14,000

Microsoft Xbox 360 - 980,000
Nintendo Wii - 760,000
Sony PS3 - 580,000

Software
-----------------
Wii - Zelda: Twilight Princess - 520,000
Wii - Red Steel - 200,000
Wii - Trauma Center: Second Opinion - 70,000
GCN - Zelda: Twilight Princess - 480,000
PS2 - Final Fantasy 12 - 430,000
PS2 - Guitar Heroes 2 - 230,000
PS2 - Bully - 160,000
PS3 - Resistance: Fall of Man - 300,000
360 - Gears of War - 600,000
360 - Viva Pinata - 90,000
NDS - Yoshi's Island - 250,000
NDS - Final Fantasy 3 - 230,000
NDS - New Super Mario Bros - 400,000
 
W

White Man

Member
FoxSpirit said:
Where's a mod to officially seal this crazy bet? :D
Click to expand...

Right here, Emenis goes for a week if 360 fails to sell a million in December, threeball goes for a week if it succeeds in selling a million or more.

It's on.
 
K

KINGMOKU

Member
I wont predict, as I always fail, but those predicting that the PS3 will outsell the Wii are seriously screwing up thier own predictions.

I just cant see how it could happen.
 
J

jimbo

Banned
Stopsign said:
That is not very likely. The 360 is not going to sell 1.5 million (and if it does, it is because the world hates Odysseus). The Wii will definitely not sell over 1,000,000 unless the demand has been fooling us all this time, and Nintendo really has shipped the amount they said they would ship by 2007.



PS3 - Resistance: Fall of Man - 300,000
360 - Gears of War - 600,000
360 - Viva Pinata - 90,000
Click to expand...


No. To all 3.


As far as Wii shipments go, you guys must have not kept up with the Media Create numbers. The Wii JUST SOLD 250k units in ONE WEEK in JAPAN. That means Nintendo has the capability of shipping 250k units a week in Japan. Now do you think they don't have the same capabilty in the largest market?

They do. And when you consider Dec will be a 5 week month, Nintendo could have easily shipped 1.25 million in Dec in just one territory(250k *5).
 
T

thestopsign

Member
jimbo said:
No. To all 3.


As far as Wii shipments go, you guys must have not kept up with the Media Create numbers. The Wii JUST SOLD 250k units in ONE WEEK in JAPAN. That means Nintendo has the capability of shipping 250k units a week in Japan. Now do you think they don't have the same capabilty in the largest market?

They do. And when you consider Dec will be a 5 week month, Nintendo could have easily shipped 1.25 million in Dec in just one territory(250k *5).
Click to expand...

Nintendo shipped 250,000 units too Japan, just one of the weeks in December. The other weeks were down below, or at 100,000. Japan is also a lot easier to ship to than the US is. I'm pretty sure Nintendo produces most of their hardware and software in Taiwan or China, so it takes less time to ship to Japan. Nintendo's last shipment of the year was on the 17th of December, maybe a smaller one a little later, but as far as I know we got 3-4 shipments in December, maybe one in late November as well. So 4 to 5 shipments of around 100,000 to 150,000 units would be around 750,000. That is logic behind my thinking. It is a stretch to think that Nintendo shipped over a million. It is a possibility, because the demand might have masked what seemed to have been massive shortages.
 
J

jimbo

Banned
Stopsign said:
Nintendo shipped 250,000 units too Japan, just one of the weeks in December. The other weeks were down below, or at 100,000. Japan is also a lot easier to ship to than the US is. I'm pretty sure Nintendo produces most of their hardware and software in Taiwan or China, so it takes less time to ship to Japan. Nintendo's last shipment of the year was on the 17th of December, maybe a smaller one a little later, but as far as I know we got 3-4 shipments in December, maybe one in late November as well. So 4 to 5 shipments of around 100,000 to 150,000 units would be around 750,000. That is logic behind my thinking. It is a stretch to think that Nintendo shipped over a million. It is a possibility, because the demand might have masked what seemed to have been massive shortages.
Click to expand...


Not just the demand but who is to say that initially Nintendo didn't artificially create a shortage at first? With plenty of units to re-supply once the frenzy started.
 
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