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Official December NPD HW Prediction thread (Today's the day)

M

MobiusPigeon

Banned
Liquid said:
my predictions...

ps3
07-minister.jpg

360
nwa4yc.jpg

wii
happy_dance.gif
Click to expand...
:lol iawtp
 
D

Dega

Eeny Meenie Penis
White Man said:
Right here, Emenis goes for a week if 360 fails to sell a million in December, threeball goes for a week if it succeeds in selling a million or more.

It's on.
Click to expand...

I better get some games ready just in case.
 
A

argon

Member
Predictions...

NDS - 2.1m

DS will do incredible this month, and I think it can top 2 million. I'm willing to bet Nintendo shipped around 1.4-1.5 million each month in Nov/Dec, which would mean ~2.1m for December if there's a near total sellout. I don't consider my numbers far fetched since at 420k/week, my estimation is less than double November's average weekly sales for the DS.

PS2 - 1.4m* (changed to 1.2M)

The PS2 price drop has helped it continue to dominate, and it's not even at a $99 price point yet. I think somewhere in the mid-millions range is a sure thing.

360 - 1.25m

No matter how good the console is, at a $400 price point it cannot reach the mainstream audience it needs to dominate the charts. I think it will continue to be outsold slightly by the PS2 until it drops to $300 standard.

GBA - 1.2m
PSP - 900k

The DS will finally cannibalize some GBA sales, but not much. The system will continue to age rather gracefully until next holiday season. PSP will do respectable, but I don't see it breaking a million.

WII - 800k* (changed to 1.3M)
PS3 - 600k

Both systems are supply constrained.. I think Sony will have shipped 1m to North America for 2006, Nintendo will have shipped about 1.5m Wiis, so my estimates are discounting Canada sales for Nov/Dec.

GCN - 150k
XBX - 5k

EDIT:
I'm changing Wii to 1.3M based on the shipment predictions data we know about.. and PS2 to 1.2M
 
G

GFord

Member
threeball said:
I bet a weeks ban that 360 is under 1 million. I doubt its over 1 million.

My guesses:

DS: 2130k
GBA: 1560k
PS2: 1204k
Wii: 1200k
PSP: 980k
Xbox360: 772k
PS3: 660k
GCN: 90k
Xbox: 30k
Click to expand...

360 should be over 1 million, but you just know those predicting over 1 million 360's already have their "but NPD doesn't include Walmart sale's" line/excuse ready if it doesn't.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Doesn't Gears have to be near 1 mil for it to have sold 2 million early in the month? I'm expecting Europe to have purchased maybe 400,000 copies of it (just arbitrarily, I'd like to be corrected here. Kind of based it on the relative size of the markets), so that means the US would be responsible for 2 million...2.4 million total world wide.

I think. lol.

okay that entire thing was nonsense
 
P

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
DS 1.7M
PS2 1.4M
GBA 1.2M
PSP 1.1M
360 900K
Wii 700K
PS3 750K
Xbox - 120k
GameCube - 125k

PSP beats our the 360 you heard it here first.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Y2Kevbug11 said:
Doesn't Gears have to be near 1 mil for it to have sold 2 million early in the month? I'm expecting Europe to have purchased maybe 400,000 copies of it (just arbitrarily, I'd like to be corrected here. Kind of based it on the relative size of the markets), so that means the US would be responsible for 2 million...2.4 million total world wide.

I think. lol.

okay that entire thing was nonsense
Click to expand...
Look at it this way.

November NPD: Gears is 1m
December 15th: Gears is announced to have sold 2m

I figure around 50-60% of the additional million came in the US, since that's roughly the proportion of hardware sales. That still leaves 15 days and the two biggest shopping weekends of the year in the NPD range for December. I think it's possible for Gears to hit another million in December NPD, or be close to it.
 
D

donny2112

Member
jarrod said:
GameCube was relealed in a Nintendo PR (it was 69k iirc).
Click to expand...

Nintendo released a PR saying they had sold over 2.1 million consoles in November. From that the ~65K number was derived, but a specific GCN number was never publicly released.
 
P

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
GFord said:
360 should be over 1 million, but you just know those predicting over 1 million 360's already have their "but NPD doesn't include Walmart sale's" line/excuse ready if it doesn't.
Click to expand...
They are estimated to a high degree. Please keep up.
 
G

GFord

Member
TheProfessor said:
They are estimated to a high degree. Please keep up.
Click to expand...

Ok...360 should be over 1 million, but you just know those ESTIMATING over 1 million 360's already have their "but NPD doesn't include Walmart sale's" line/excuse ready if it doesn't.
 
D

donny2112

Member
GFord said:
but you just know those ESTIMATING over 1 million 360's already have their "but NPD doesn't include Walmart sale's" line/excuse ready if it doesn't.
Click to expand...

NPD does include Wal-Mart via a guesstimate, though.
 
D

dirtmonkey37

flinging feces ---->
Odysseus said:
Canada.
Click to expand...

Oh.....I thought he wa.... oh. Sorry about that....

At least I wasn't met with a flurry of "OH MY GODZZ, U R TEH DUMB $#!*. NA = NORTH AMERIKA IDIOT, THUR IZ MORE THAN 1 COUNTRY IN NA..."
 
D

dirtmonkey37

flinging feces ---->
GhaleonEB said:
I have to ask. Did you really think Nintendo broke out sales by state?
Click to expand...


That's why I was surprised. I was reading to myself, "1.5 U.S., .3 CA" and I thought that was supposed to mean that California's Wii sales were so high, he was just putting them in there seperately....because.....


I just had a Garnett moment, let's not rub it in. :D (no hard feelings Garnett, if you're, um, here. I have to blame this one someone)
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
dirtmonkey37 said:
Great, now everyone's going to....That's fine... It's all in good fun, no?
Click to expand...
Yeah, I was just kind of teasing you. Part of the reason I didn't do so at first was because for a few moments I thought the same thing you did, and caught myself before I posted. I'll move on. :)
 
D

dirtmonkey37

flinging feces ---->
GhaleonEB said:
Yeah, I was just kind of teasing you. Part of the reason I didn't do so at first was because for a few moments I thought the same thing you did, and caught myself before I posted. I'll move on. :)
Click to expand...

Haha. Glad I'm not the only one :) :D
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
AniHawk said:
1.8 NA (1.5 US, .3 CA)
.875m JP
.515m EU
Click to expand...

So, who's this estimate coming from @ CNBC? 1.1M+ Wii's sold through Dec 25th (and add another week) might be our high estimate for the thread. In my original post, I did wonder if it was possible for them to hit 1M across 3 systems for the month.

They also have a 1.5M estimate for the 360 and a 550k estimate for the PS3.
 
S

Square2005

Banned
Predictions:

NDS - 1,869,000
*based on past GBA performance.
X360 - 1,156,742
*ran it thru a no. of possible scenarios based on daily retail traffic in December.
GBA - 1,148,000
*based on past GBA performance.
Wii - 1,033,116
*same as X360 + assuming Nintendo didn't have shipping problems.
PS3 - 444,734
*same as Wii + assuming Sony had shipping difficulties up thru the week before X'mas week.
 
D

Deku

Banned
Japan is ~820,000 from MC as of last week Dec 24. it will do at least another 100k week ending Dec 31.
 
N

NinSoX

Banned
Sorry but if you want to bet, make it more than 1 week at least. People get banned for a week for calling another an "idiot" here.
 
D

donny2112

Member
For anyone wanting to compare to Xbox, here's what I found publicly available.

Edit: It seems that Google only keeps track of things recently accessed, so there could be a lot more out there than this.


2001:
Nov + Dec: 1.4 million (GCN 1.2 million)


2002:
Jan-July: 1.1 million (2.5 million cumulative) (GCN 0.8 million, 2 million cumulative)
August-December: 2.2 million (4.7 million cumulative) (GCN 1.6 million, 3.6 million cumulative)
Note: This last number (4.7 million cumulative) seems to be a little high, because it is based off of this chart, which shows a too high number for December 2001 cumulative sales by 0.1 million. I guess you could then put the real XBX cumulative for the U.S. through December 2002 at 4.6 million to compensate. Likewise, the GCN number is 0.1 million too high for December 2001 (compared to the earlier sheet), so you can probably put the GCN at 3.5 million to compensate.


2004:
Cumulative as of end of 2004 from here (see exact section here):
GBA: 27,346,320
PS2: 26,908,110
XBX: 11,850,900
GCN: 9,176,373
NDS: 1,225,594

Europe as of end of 2004:
PS2: 24,236,376
GBA: 14,937,693
XBX: 5,545,108
GCN: 4,716,486

(Very cool to see Europe numbers. :D )

Edit:
Anyone else who wants to find public numbers, be my guest. ;)

Edit2:
In case anyone's wondering why I'm doing this, it's so we can actually discuss numbers when the December NPD thread comes out. We now have the XBX LTD through it's first 14 months (~4.6 million) to compare to the 360 in the same timespan (through Dec-06), the GCN numbers for it's first two months (1.2 million) to compare to Wii (through Dec-06), and the complete 360, PS3, and Wii monthly sales.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
DefectiveReject said:
That wasn't NPD's number it was something like IDC or something stupid
Click to expand...

Has ANYONE actually watched that CNBC video (you have to be a member) to see who is being interviewed? I know that it references NPD for November's number, but is it actually someone from NPD giving the December preview. They traditionally don't do that as they're monthly reporting is a paid research report and the moment of it's release causes immediate movement on the stock market and such a pronouncement would be assumed to be based off of preliminary results coming in.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Dahbomb said:
Its November + Decembe sales for 360, which are actually more like 1.4-1.5 million for 360 (November's NPD for 360 were 512K), 1.2-1.3 million for Wii and 750K for PS3. It's NOT 2 million for 360 in December alone.
Click to expand...
Uh...you cut off the nov numbers correctly for 360 and Wii, but why did you leave it at 750k for PS3? It did not sell 750k in Dec.
 
D

Dahbomb

Member
Cheebs said:
Uh...you cut off the nov numbers correctly for 360 and Wii, but why did you leave it at 750k for PS3? It did not sell 750k in Dec.
Click to expand...
Corrected it. I meant to do it for the PS3 as well, just sort of slipped.
 
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