Worried Clinton vows to claim 'phantom' delegates
Friday, 15 February 2008
The Hillary Clinton campaign has served notice that it expects to claim delegates theoretically garnered in primary votes in Michigan and Florida even though the contests in both states were declared void by the Democratic leadership long before they were held.
The highly controversial gambit reflects growing concern in the Clinton camp that her rival for the nomination, Barack Obama, may be pulling far enough ahead to be beyond her reach. Yesterday, David Plouffe, Mr Obama's campaign manager, said it had become "highly unlikely" that Mrs Clinton could now prevail.
But reclaiming the "phantom" delegates from Michigan and Florida could potentially tilt the race back in her favour. Last September, both candidates pledged not to campaign in either state after they defied party rules by leapfrogging their primary votes into January.
Democrat voters went to the polls in both states anyway, in very large numbers in Florida especially, where Mrs Clinton won by a 50 per cent to 33 per cent margin. In Michigan, she also came out on top, but was the only candidate with her name on the ballot. The other choice was "uncommitted".
Since the coast-to-coast contests of Super Tuesday on 5 February, Mr Obama has won eight states to Mrs Clinton's zero. According to latest estimates, he now has about 50 more delegates than her bound for the party's August convention in Denver, if you include so-called "super-delegates" members of Congress, governors and party grandees who have so far endorsed him.
Mr Obama is expected to win votes next Tuesday in Hawaii (where he was partly raised) and Wisconsin. On 4 March come two key states, Texas and Ohio, which have become Mrs Clinton's firewall against final disaster. A Quinnipiac University poll last night showed her still retaining double-digit leads in the two states. Mrs Clinton campaigned in Ohio yesterday.
There remains the strong risk, indeed, that come the summer convention, neither candidate will have assembled the necessary 2,025 delegates to claim the nomination. Hence the furious lobbying of the nearly 800 super-delegates headed to the convention.
But now Florida and Michigan become crucial. The national party continues to insist that no delegates from either state will be welcome in Denver. Keeping them out of the hall will project an image of party division, however. Democrats in both states say they are being unfairly disenfranchised.
"We believe those should be counted at the convention," Mrs Clinton's field director, Guy Cecil, said in a conference call with reporters. "The issue of the votes in Florida and Michigan that has to be resolved." This is a clear reversal of positions Mrs Clinton took earlier and the Obama team is crying foul.
"Now, when they believe it serves their political interests, they're trying to rewrite the rules," said Mr Plouffe. "Now, at the 11th hour, the Clinton campaign is trying to rewrite rules that were firmly established, and I don't think there's a lot of appetite for that."
In fact, it is an argument that is already splitting the party. Julian Bond, the leader of the National Association for the Advancement of Coloured People (NAACP), told the Democrat Party chairman Howard Dean that ignoring Florida's votes would be reminiscent of the "sordid history of racially discriminatory primaries" in the state.
But Al Sharpton, a former presidential candidate, wrote to Mr Dean saying that changing the rules of the game now would constitute a "grave injustice".
Ultimately, the decision on whether or not to seat the delegates from the two states will rest not with Mr Dean, but with the party's convention credentialing committee. Its members will only be spared an agonising decision if one of the candidates manages in the final stages of the primary-caucus season decisively to break free. If Mr Obama's winning streak continues, then the arguments over Florida and Michigan could become moot.
Michigan and Florida: a mighty mess
Is Hillary Clinton right to lay claim to the Michigan and Florida delegates?
She is on extremely thin ice. In Michigan, Mr Obama was not on the ballot. Speaking last October about Michigan, Mrs Clinton said: "It's clear, this election that they're having is not going to count for anything". Has she forgotten?
How many delegates are we talking about?
Based on Mrs Clinton's winning margins, she could theoretically be entitled to 73 delegates from Michigan and an additional 105 from Florida. Mr Obama could claim 67 from Florida, but in Michigan 55 delegates would be awarded to the "uncommitted" vote. (Remember John Edwards was still around back then.) It is possible that Mrs Clinton could gain a net 100 delegates. In this race, that's huge.
What will the Democrats do?
The party desperately wants to avoid a scene in Denver with delegates from Florida and Michigan locked out. But it can't easily back down, particularly if to do so ends up making all the difference in favour of Mrs Clinton. Some party officials are discussing asking both states to start all over again with party caucuses. Yes, it's a mighty mess.
