Here's a repost of my earlier work done on this, since maybe some of you guys haven't seen it. I got delegate totals from
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/ which is the best place for up to date, accurate delegate totals.
Obama: 1112 pledged, 151 super, 1263 total
Clinton: 978 pledged, 232 super, 1210 total
Now, for shits n' giggles add in MI and FL.
Clinton: 1156 pledged, 246 super, 1402 super
Obama: 1179 pledged, 156 super, 1335 total
Uncommitted: 55 from MI that would almost certainly go to Obama
Now, add those uncommitteds to Obama and we have a pledged delegate count of
Obama 1234
Clinton 1156
Which is a 78 delegate gap. Now, say worst case scenario from that spreadsheet happens and Clinton takes Ohio, Texas AND Pennsylvania with 60% and they split everything else including Wisconsin and Hawaii. (I know, I know- it's not gonna happen like that just play along)
Total thru rest of primaries:
Obama 512
Clinton 596
Total number of pledged delegates in worst case scenario for Obama:
Clinton 1752
Obama 1746
So, we can conclude from all of this worst case scenario for Obama:
If Clinton wins OH, TX, and PA by 20 points, they basically tie everything else AND she gets FL and MI seated, she'll be ahead by a grand total of SIX pledged delegates.
Here's the spreadsheet in question which shows how delegates would be allocated in this doosmday scenario:
Basically, he doesn't have to worry because:
A) She's not going to win Texas, Ohio, AND Pennsylvania all by 20 points. Not gonna happen.
B) They're not gonna split the rest of the primaries 50/50. Obama will win big in some remaining caucuses and is currently polling ahead of her in NC (my home state!) even tho it's way off on the calendar.
C) The seating of the FL/MI delegates will be determined by a committee, membership of which will be determined by who has the most delegates. You see where I'm going with this? If Obama is ahead, they won't be seated unless to do so wouldn't screw things up. If Hillary's ahead, we're fucked anyhow.
D) Superdelegates won't override the will of the people. It's already started to happen- since Super Tuesday, Obama has gained 13 and she's lost 3 for a net of +16 for Obama.
So, if there's basically no chance of her winning (yeah, I said it) then you have to ask, why is she doing this? Is it because she's a calculating, power hungry shrewish excuse for a woman that would gladly destroy her own party just to realize her own ambitions, which she's been seeking to realize since her husband was elected in 1992? Yes, that's what it means. Hillary Clinton is a bitch.