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May 2009 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
My monthly column for Gamasutra on the latest videogame industry figures from NPD is now up.
Direct link to Gamasutra story about May 2009 NPD data.

A couple of things that may be of interest:

  • A way of seeing how the industry peaked in February 2009
  • How consumers are buying cheaper software (lower handheld losses than console, ASP down, but total software only down by 3 million units for the year)
  • Comments on PSP Go pricing, including a comment or two from Mr. Pachter

One image for fun:
revenue-peak.gif


Also, don't miss Kris Graft's news item on Bionic Commando, Terminator Salvation, and Boom Blox Sales figures.

As always, constructive criticism is welcome. If I made an error, kindly let me know and I'll get it fixed ASAP.

I may be unavailable for much of the day, so silence won't mean I'm ignoring you. I'm just trying to be a good dad on vacation!

However, my editors will be monitoring this thread, I suspect, so changes may get made without me replying directly here. They'll punish me later for the mistakes, I assure you.

Thanks, guys.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007
 
Interesting writeup, as usual. Thx for sharing.

Mr. Pachter explained that the PSP Go would likely sell well to existing (hardcore, we presume) PSP owners who wish to trade up.
Click to expand...

If thats coming true, than it would not help psp software sales, no?
 
Good job. I enjoyed the article this month.

A few notes:

- On page three in the fourth paragraph, you use the 71,000 figure without including the words "units per week"

- On page three, do you have access to the ASP of the Xbox 360 during the first half of last and this year? That will help to flesh out your point that while the Xbox 360 is selling more units, there is not a corresponding growth in revenue.
 
dammitmattt said:
Good job. I enjoyed the article this month.

A few notes:

- On page three in the fourth paragraph, you use the 71,000 figure without including the words "units per week"

- On page three, do you have access to the ASP of the Xbox 360 during the first half of last and this year? That will help to flesh out your point that while the Xbox 360 is selling more units, there is not a corresponding growth in revenue.
Click to expand...
I have a LTD ASP for Xbox 360 as of June or August 2008, but will have to look it up. I think it was around $325, but don't quote me until I have that right. We knew it was $270 as of last month.

Either one of the editors watching, or I, will fix the typo later today. Sorry, gotta run. Kids are only kids for a short time in their lives and dads have to take advantage of that. :D

*runs to beach*
 
Gamasutra said:
As of May 2009, the installed bases for those systems stand at 20.2 million, 15.3 million and 7.45 million units, respectively.
Click to expand...

I have Wii at 20.2m, 360 at 15.3m, and PS3 at 7.8m. What does anyone else have for the total?
 
Hammer24 said:
Interesting writeup, as usual. Thx for sharing.

If thats coming true, than it would not help psp software sales, no?
Click to expand...

Well, I suppose if somebody who was pirating trades up to a Go...

Then again, I really can't see pirates being so interested in Go as to give up their pirating.
 
It would be nice to actually hear from retailers on the PSP go and what they expect on it's future. They'll shy away from commenting specifically on it but with such a bad economy, dropping revenue, who knows what they'll say about a handheld moving away from retail games.

You're a good journalist, aren't you?
 
donny2112 said:
I have Wii at 20.2m, 360 at 15.3m, and PS3 at 7.8m. What does anyone else have for the total?
Click to expand...

Monthly numbers for PS3 in order:
197000
491000
244000
127000
130000
82000
82000
98500
159000
130600
119400
121000
466000
797600
269000
280800
257000
187100
208700
405500
225000
185400
232400
190000
378000
726000
203200
276000
218000
127000
131000
Click to expand...

Around 3 or 4 of those numbers I had exact values due to disparities in how websites publish stuff (obviously some months we get rounded to the thousands, some rounded to the hundreds, sometimes different websites report different round). There were also a few leaks in early 2007 that gave exact numbers.

I rounded the months where I had exact units to the nearest thousand.

So the sum there is 7.74 million.
 
skinnyrattler said:
It would be nice to actually hear from retailers on the PSP go and what they expect on it's future. They'll shy away from commenting specifically on it but with such a bad economy, dropping revenue, who knows what they'll say about a handheld moving away from retail games.

You're a good journalist, aren't you?
Click to expand...

I believe when the PSP Go was announced at a retailer event the system got a standing ovation. They love that it has a profit margin for them and can be sold with PSN cards and Go accessories.
 
forgeforsaken said:
I really don't understand why Boom Blox can't connect to the Wii consumer base.
Click to expand...

If EA aren't willing to push the boat out and promote the title a bit better they're pretty much relying on the core gaming demographic and word of mouth.

It certainly doesn't stand out from the vast swathes of identikit party games on the shelves.
 
forgeforsaken said:
I really don't understand why Boom Blox can't connect to the Wii consumer base.
Click to expand...

The first Boom Blox did pretty well for itself over time (which makes sense, since it's not exactly an "OMG have to have it day 1!" kind of title.)

I don't really get the sense that the sequel has a lot to offer someone who bought the first game, liked it, and plays it occasionally, but hasn't tried to delve in and really experience all the content -- which I'm guessing is a large portion of the people who bought the first one.

skinnyrattler said:
It would be nice to actually hear from retailers on the PSP go and what they expect on it's future. They'll shy away from commenting specifically on it but with such a bad economy, dropping revenue, who knows what they'll say about a handheld moving away from retail games.
Click to expand...

The PSP Go moved from the $0.01 margin that all other game hardware has to something like a $30-50 retail margin, so stores are going to be only too happy to stock it.
 
Oni Jazar said:
I believe when the PSP Go was announced at a retailer event the system got a standing ovation. They love that it has a profit margin for them and can be sold with PSN cards and Go accessories.
Click to expand...

Do retailers make money on PSN cards?
 
donny2112 said:
I have Wii at 20.2m, 360 at 15.3m, and PS3 at 7.8m. What does anyone else have for the total?
Click to expand...
Good one. I'm sure it's getting down into the noise in the data, but the full value in my sheet is 7.753m.

Fixing (if someone hasn't beat me to it). Also getting the missing typo dammitmattt pointed out. (Just realizing how appropriate that nick is when he's pointing out my mistakes!)
 
jvm said:
Good one. I'm sure it's getting down into the noise in the data, but the full value in my sheet is 7.753m.

Fixing (if someone hasn't beat me to it). Also getting the missing typo dammitmattt pointed out. (Just realizing how appropriate that nick is when he's pointing out my mistakes!)
Click to expand...

:lol :lol :lol

For some random reason, dammitmatt was already taken way back in the early days of XBL on the first Xbox. And I picked up that nickname for killing my friends too much in Goldeneye and Halo before my old man hands kicked in and made me thoroughly mediocre. :/
 
charlequin said:
The PSP Go moved from the $0.01 margin that all other game hardware has to something like a $30-50 retail margin, so stores are going to be only too happy to stock it.
Click to expand...

Pachter rip-off comment confirmed?
 
charlequin said:
The PSP Go moved from the $0.01 margin that all other game hardware has to something like a $30-50 retail margin, so stores are going to be only too happy to stock it.
Click to expand...
According to one source, a person I feel is knowledgeable about these things, hardware starts with a very slim margin and the margin grows over time. If true, the margin on the PSP-3000 may actually be two to three orders of magnitude larger than $0.01. :)
 
jvm said:
According to one source, a person I feel is knowledgeable about these things, hardware starts with a very slim margin and the margin grows over time. If true, the margin on the PSP-3000 may actually be two to three orders of magnitude larger than $0.01. :)
Click to expand...
20 to 30 cents? What's orders of magnitude?
 
skinnyrattler said:
20 to 30 cents? What's orders of magnitude?
Click to expand...

An order of magnitude is usually 10x.

1 order of magnitude larger = 0.10
2 orders of magnitude larger = 1.00
3 orders of magnitude larger = 10.00

jvm made a funny.
:P
 
jvm said:
According to one source, a person I feel is knowledgeable about these things, hardware starts with a very slim margin and the margin grows over time. If true, the margin on the PSP-3000 may actually be two to three orders of magnitude larger than $0.01. :)
Click to expand...

I suppose that's possible! Although I know that as of 200...3? 4? there was no meaningful retail margin on any of the three then-current consoles, and that Gamestop continues to not offer any employee discount on any new hardware purchases with the justification being that said hardware is purchased at retail sale price by the company.
 
AranhaHunter said:
Certainly not a lot? At most 10%? I just can't see them making much money on those cards...
Click to expand...
Truly, I have no idea. If the online business were going well and attracting people under 18 years of age, however, retailers might well appreciate it.

I realize I'm more fortunate than many users, but if I had to pay for all my PSN purchases with PSN cards, I'd probably need about five of the $50 cards a year. Retailers would probably love for all of us to come by and get our cards from them.
 
AranhaHunter said:
Certainly not a lot? At most 10%? I just can't see them making much money on those cards...
Click to expand...

It's relatively low, but it's also an extremely low-risk item: takes effectively zero inventory space, has no expiration date, can't meaningfully wind up overstocked (since the cards will still be useful as long as the network's still up), and relatively easy to push on people making other related purchases.
 
jvm said:
I realize I'm more fortunate than many users, but if I had to pay for all my PSN purchases with PSN cards, I'd probably need about five of the $50 cards a year. Retailers would probably love for all of us to come by and get our cards from them.
Click to expand...

While we´re at it - are the accessory charts out yet?
 
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