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December 2012 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 7

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, January 7th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: November 25-December 30 (5 weeks, November was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: January 10th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST

IMPORTANT: As of May 2012's results, NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance compared to previous years.

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WII]
[WIU]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[360] 1300K       [360] 1.3m
[360] 1,300,000   [360] 1.300.000
[360] 1300000     [360] - 1300000


Potential hardware impacting events in December:
Christmas shopping season (longest possible runup to Christmas, too)
Little to no reports of significant Wii U shortages

November's Results - thanks to jvm and a variety of angles

My estimates are below.

Xbox 360 = 1260K
PS3 = 760K
3DS = 540K
Wii U = 425K
Wii = 420K
PSV = 220K

As usual, these are my estimates only, unofficial, rounded to the nearest 5K.
November 2011 NPD thread
December 2011 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
[360] 1350K
[3DS] 950K
[PS3] 900K
[PSV] 200K
[WII] 450K
[WIU] 475K

Is it wrong to think Nintendo would have/will announce(d) passing the million unit milestone in the US?
 
Any reason some predictors have PSV lower in December? Were the BF deals that good?

Being five weeks, it'll be tough for December to be below November, but if any system can do it this year (that we'll get numbers for), it'll be Vita. Yes, the BF deals were *that* good. $200 for AC3 or Black Ops Vita version with the system and memory card, IIRC. That's like $120 off the full retail price or something? Didn't have anything close to that in December, unless I missed some sale.
 
Being five weeks, it'll be tough for December to be below November, but if any system can do it this year (that we'll get numbers for), it'll be Vita. Yes, the BF deals were *that* good. $200 for AC3 or Black Ops Vita version with the system and memory card, IIRC. That's like $120 off the full retail price or something? Didn't have anything close to that in December, unless I missed some sale.

I bought the AC syste. Came with 3 months of PS+ as well. Free U:GA, Gravity Rush, Wipeout and Jet Set Radio, yes please!
 
People are actually predicting less than 100k a week for Wii U?

... Unbelievable...

[360] 1200K
[3DS] 900K
[PS3] 840K
[PSV] 200K
[WII] 500K
[WIU] 600K
 
[360] 1357K
[3DS] 997K
[PS3] 947K
[WIU] 477K
[WII] 417K
[PSV] 187K

OK JVM, I made it my pet project to beat you again this month... ;)
BRING IT!
 
[360] 1200K
[3DS] 700K
[PS3] 900K
[WII] 500K
[WIU] 400K
[PSV] 250K

I get the feeling that the Vita will be higher than most predictions and Wii U lower.
 
http://www.vg247.com/2013/01/03/wii...sales-at-gamestop-below-expectations-analyst/

Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia has said in his latest investor note that sales of Wii U hardware and software at GameStop were below expectations over the holiday period.

According to Bhatia, the console and its subsequent software remained “abundant,” in quantity despite suggestions from various sectors citing a possible shortage.

Bhatia also noted the $350 Wii U Deluxe model is moving off GameStop shelves faster than the basic $300 model, due to being a “better value.”

“Our conclusion is the Nintendo Wii U launch has been slightly disappointing,” he said.

The analyst also claimed the attach rate for Wii U software at GameStop was “low,” without revealing any actual figures.

For now I'm sticking with my 600k Wii U prediction but could be worse ^^''
 
Yeah, I'm sticking with my 525K prediction too (which would put the Wii U at around 1M for 2012, not bad). We don't know what these expectations were (how many consoles Gamestop received) but it's clearly not the best news for Nintendo even if between "bad" and " slightly disappointing" there's room to not be doomed. Again.
 
[360] 1300k
[3DS] 1200k
[PS3] 800k
[PSV] 250k
[WII] 600k
[WIU] 800k

I'm going high on my Wii U numbers. Why? I have no idea.

And other than Donny, people have horrendous 3DS numbers.
 
I'm predicting 1 million 3DS :x

*High Five*

The 3DS sold 250k BF week without any sales promotions. Every week in December, many retailers had sales promotions. Not to mention that the average weekly sales rate increases up till Christmas. Any prediction close to it's November numbers will be wrong.
 
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