Thunder Monkey
Banned
But getting outsold like they did while still having ample supply on shelves can be construed in no way as good.
-
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December 2012 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 7
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Yeah, 460K indicates that things aren't clicking with the U.S. public for some reason (slow CPU, maybe?
shinra-bansho
Member
Yeah, I'm eyeballing to be like 700-800K off.
The PS3 and 3DS contributed to my loss hard. It appears my intuition was wrong about PS3. Oh well!
Also wrong order for Wii and Wii U. Damn.
Edit: I need to find the full-year predictions thread and see how badly I did.
Edit 2: Thread is here. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=461329 (fixed)
Edit 3: Look at this sh...crap.
Yeah, I'm eyeballing to be like 700-800K off.
The PS3 and 3DS contributed to my loss hard. It appears my intuition was wrong about PS3. Oh well!
Also wrong order for Wii and Wii U. Damn.
Edit: I need to find the full-year predictions thread and see how badly I did.
Edit 2: Thread is here. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=507789
Edit 3: Look at this sh...crap.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=461329&highlight=wii
Basically almost everyone predicted every system would sell more than what they actually did. At a glance, you can count in one hand the few ones that were below the actual sales.
Yep, it's absolutely depressing.
Actually, you did really well this month.
NeoGAF Prediction Results - December 2012
Units
1. ItWasMeantToBe19 - 415,000
2. Gianni Merryman - 455,000
3. allan-bh - 465,000
4. Bruno MB - 475,000
5. uchihasasuke - 544,000
6. donny2112 - 595,000
7. Road - 621,000
8. Colonel Mustard - 635,000
8. skedar897 - 635,000
10. noobie - 665,000
11. shinra-bansho - 690,000
12. doicare - 695,000
13. Drago - 700,000
14. Goldmund - 706,000
15. jvm - 715,000
15. rayner - 715,000
17. Hammer24 - 731,000
18. rostocker - 762,000
19. Hiro_Kunimi_80 - 766,000
20. NateDrake - 780,000
20. pitseleh - 780,000
22. Heavy - 790,000
23. GAF_Agg - 795,800
24. archnemesis - 805,000
25. Brakara - 815,000
25. LOCK - 815,000
25. MasterSheen - 815,000
28. Jesse2040 - 865,000
28. Kangi - 865,000
30. DrWong - 890,000
31. Jonsoncao - 895,000
31. confuziz - 895,000
33. Nemo - 905,000
34. Dynopia - 915,000
35. Zero-Crescent - 923,000
36. DragonSworne - 955,000
37. Pachter - 1,000,000
38. GimMick - 1,035,000
39. andy_lhc - 1,055,000
40. Elios83 - 1,065,000
41. Megadragon15 - 1,105,000
42. Qurupeke - 1,115,000
43. Man-is-Obsolete - 1,135,000
44. Baki - 1,185,000
44. Hoo-doo - 1,185,000
46. theviolenthero - 1,200,000
47. gaming_noob - 1,250,000
48. BlackJace - 1,272,000
49. Coldplay619 - 1,280,000
50. Strike - 1,465,000
51. BrhysH - 1,540,000
51. vectorman06 - 1,540,000
53. Untalkative_Bunny - 1,615,000
54. Duckhuntdog - 1,635,000
55. Thoraxes - 1,712,000
56. perfectchaos007 - 1,720,000
57. grimshawish - 1,860,000
Points
Code:
December 2012 Overall 2012 Top (10/12)
01. ItWasMeantToBe19 113.28 shinra-bansho 975.43
02. donny2112 100.79 ItWasMeantToBe19 974.93
03. allan-bh 99.91 Road 958.30
04. Gianni Merryman 98.65 allan-bh 955.10
05. Bruno MB 95.77 Bruno MB 941.91
06. uchihasasuke 92.71 jvm 939.94
07. Road 87.88 Zero-Crescent 934.00
08. Colonel Mustard 86.80 donny2112 933.67
09. Goldmund 86.41 Nemo 924.82
10. skedar897 86.24 Brakara 919.87
11. NateDrake 85.28 pitseleh 913.59
12. Heavy 84.87 Jonsoncao 910.40
13. rayner 84.82 doicare 908.28
14. shinra-bansho 84.80 archnemesis 903.26
15. pitseleh 84.39 Hammer24 898.47
16. MasterSheen 84.25 confuziz 888.14
17. Hiro_Kunimi_80 83.12 Pachter 883.06
18. jvm 82.46 Elios83 875.31
19. Drago 82.42 skedar897 870.06
20. Kangi 82.30 rayner 869.46
21. archnemesis 82.25 andy_lhc 866.53
22. Hammer24 82.06 Hiro_Kunimi_80 854.16
23. Nemo 81.94 noobie 852.76
24. Brakara 81.90 Strike 851.60
25. Zero-Crescent 79.49 Jesse2040 848.52
26. DragonSworne 79.42 rostocker 835.76
27. DrWong 79.34 MasterSheen 830.54
28. doicare 79.27 Goldmund 830.47
29. rostocker 78.81 Megadragon15 828.46
30. Dynopia 78.51 Dynopia 819.85
31. Man-is-Obsolete 78.05 Colonel Mustard 815.53
32. Jonsoncao 77.83 NateDrake 801.32
33. Hoo-doo 77.71 uchihasasuke 767.59
34. confuziz 77.63 Gianni Merryman 750.71
35. gaming_noob 77.48 GhaleonEB 712.62
36. andy_lhc 77.32 Dedication Through L 634.19
37. Elios83 77.25 kefka2030 607.19
38. Megadragon15 76.67 MatthewB92 464.10
39. noobie 76.27 Saiyar 452.88
40. Jesse2040 74.95 ohlawd 448.39
41. LOCK 74.92 michaelius 429.49
42. theviolenthero 74.79 Drago 416.25
43. Qurupeke 73.81 Jokeropia 386.93
44. GimMick 73.50 Petrae 380.24
45. Pachter 73.41 Delusibeta 359.36
46. Baki 73.11 starship 358.72
47. BrhysH 69.98 DrWong 356.47
48. BlackJace 68.72 metalslimer 348.58
49. Thoraxes 68.09 TurkishEmperor 335.41
50. Untalkative_Bunny 66.25 BLaZiN PRopHeT 313.37Congratulations, ItWasMeantToBe19 for the month and shinra-bansho for the year!
shinra-bansho had a > 20 point lead last month for the year. Down to the wire finish!
----------
Got second in points for the month (correct ordering probably did it)! Probably saved being in the Top 10 for the year.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Half a point away from first D:
I guess that's still pretty good, lol.
I guess that's still pretty good, lol.
shinra-bansho
Member
Heh, good game.
Oh wow, I thought I did terrible for the month, but I'm okay with 11th.
Now can I get paid as much as Pachter?
Oh wow, I thought I did terrible for the month, but I'm okay with 11th.
Now can I get paid as much as Pachter?
Well... good try! It was quite close![360] 1357K
[3DS] 997K
[PS3] 947K
[WIU] 477K
[WII] 417K
[PSV] 187K
OK JVM, I made it my pet project to beat you again this month...
BRING IT!
Thanks everyone who took part. It was a lot of fun, and I hope we can keep it up for another year. Maybe the hardware sales will be better... :|
Seconded, on both counts. I should have congratulated the winner directly. And, yes, donny2112 does a great service for all of us. Thanks!
Thanks all!
For next year since we could be adding in two new systems, Wii will be dropped (easy choice). Also, Vita will be taken out of the points calculation, but still in the Units results. This is because the points system is based off a % difference to the actual value, and with Vita doing so low, a small absolute difference (e.g. 25K) can make for a huge % difference (e.g. if actual is 35K).
Example:
If the actual sales results for a month were
360 - 300K
PSV - 35K
and someone predicted
360 - 275K
PSV - 60K
they'd get
360 - 18.33... points out of 20
PSV - 5.71... points out of 20
even though they were 25K off for each. Since the purpose of the points system is to normalize how much each month is worth, having a system that can skew results a lot for a minor absolute difference in a system in a month doesn't really work so well. We've done this before for PS2 (include in Units, exclude in points) when it started trending really low, too.
Therefore starting in January, we'll be predicting for the below.
[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WIU]
However, the points calculation will not include the PSV results, which would make the remaining 4 systems worth 25 points each. When 720 and/or PS4 release, the points would drop down to 20 points per system and then to 16.66... points per system. That way each month's possible points are the same.
We'll also keep the same Top 10/12 month formula going on, so that missing 1 or 2 months doesn't necessarily cutoff your chances in the annual results.
Hopefully that all makes sense. If there are any questions, feel free to ask!
For next year since we could be adding in two new systems, Wii will be dropped (easy choice). Also, Vita will be taken out of the points calculation, but still in the Units results. This is because the points system is based off a % difference to the actual value, and with Vita doing so low, a small absolute difference (e.g. 25K) can make for a huge % difference (e.g. if actual is 35K).
Example:
If the actual sales results for a month were
360 - 300K
PSV - 35K
and someone predicted
360 - 275K
PSV - 60K
they'd get
360 - 18.33... points out of 20
PSV - 5.71... points out of 20
even though they were 25K off for each. Since the purpose of the points system is to normalize how much each month is worth, having a system that can skew results a lot for a minor absolute difference in a system in a month doesn't really work so well. We've done this before for PS2 (include in Units, exclude in points) when it started trending really low, too.
Therefore starting in January, we'll be predicting for the below.
[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WIU]
However, the points calculation will not include the PSV results, which would make the remaining 4 systems worth 25 points each. When 720 and/or PS4 release, the points would drop down to 20 points per system and then to 16.66... points per system. That way each month's possible points are the same.
We'll also keep the same Top 10/12 month formula going on, so that missing 1 or 2 months doesn't necessarily cutoff your chances in the annual results.
Hopefully that all makes sense. If there are any questions, feel free to ask!
shinra-bansho
Member
Yep. Thirding this. Thanks for running the show.
DragonSworne
Banned
w00t, I beat Pachter!
Edit: I need to find the full-year predictions thread and see how badly I did.
Edit 2: Thread is here. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=461329 (fixed)
If you can give a full year estimate, we can use that for the full year thread.
perfectchaos007
Member
If you can give a full year estimate, we can use that for the full year thread.
Are you going to make a full year 2013 thread? I'll participate if you do
Beating Pachter in video game predictions is like beating a 5 year old in arm wrestling.
Not really a glorious victory.
I'm not sure thats accurate or fair, he seems to consistently do better than the majority of the active participants in the threads. Doesn't he beat Jesse every year as well?
Donny, thanks for keeping the threads going even for those of us passive participants who like numbers/sales.
Says the guy who didn't even participate.
And Pachter was third last year, which means that you're basically full of shit.
http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=34387064&postcount=212
Yeah. Probably will put it up once we can get the 2012 results taken care of. Hopefully jvm will have some YTD estimates in his Gamasutra column(s) next week.
Cool. Glad to know it's enjoyable even for those just watching.
Jonsoncao
Banned
Thank you donny2112!
and here is the 2012 NPD prediction thread if anyone is interested:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=461329