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December 2012 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 7

donny2112

Member
Did I miss something?

Apparently. It's normal for a system to get heavily outsold it's first December whether it's going to go on to be a "success" or not, so getting riled up about a sales ratio in the first December is meaningless on its own merit.

So nothing about wiiu, 3ds and ps3?

Assuming PS3 was the second place home console (it should've been), then 700K or under for it.
 

Miles X

Member
If Wii sold nothing in December or thereafter, and 360 is flat with 2012, it'll pass up Wii's total in October 2013.

If they both experience the same drops they did this year, it'll happen next holiday.

Wii likely hasn't broken 2 mill this year, that's down over 55%, it's gonna have trouble breaking 1 mill next year, meaning all 360 has to do is 3.5 mill.

Piece of cake.
 
Sony being down in December from November is terrible. If they're serious about the US, why not run the 199 dollar deal the entire month? Seems dumb. Congrats Microsoft, I guess.
 

Troll

Banned
Sony being down in December from November is terrible. If they're serious about the US, why not run the 199 dollar deal the entire month? Seems dumb. Congrats Microsoft, I guess.

I hope that whoever takes #1 from Microsoft uses C-C-C-COMBO BREAKER!! In their press release.

That's what the statement was for. U.S. only. Dynopia has a more thorough analysis, though, so probably by end of next year in the U.S. :)

Okay, I get it now.
 

TheNatural

My Member!
Apparently. It's normal for a system to get heavily outsold it's first December whether it's going to go on to be a "success" or not, so getting riled up about a sales ratio in the first December is meaningless on its own merit.

You know what else has modest to weak launches? Saturn, N64, Gamecube, Vita, among you know - basically 90% of the systems every launch that don't set sales on fire.

People can keep saying it doesn't matter because of this or that, but it does. Wii U isn't $250 vs. $599 or $399 consoles, its $350 vs. $250. And I don't know if you noticed but the years 2010, 2011, and 2012 happened with the Wii as well, you can't just revert to "oh well it took off in 2007 and 2008 so it will again."

Nintendo should be concerned with getting hammered this bad and horrific third party numbers.
 
Sony being down in December from November is terrible. If they're serious about the US, why not run the 199 dollar deal the entire month? Seems dumb. Congrats Microsoft, I guess.

Because this late in the gen it's more about making money than fighting for marketshare.
 

donny2112

Member
People can keep saying it doesn't matter because of this or that, but it does.

You (and everyone else) can't tell just from the December numbers what the Wii U will go on to do in the rest of the generation. You're trying to draw a conclusion on insufficient data and being called out for not realizing that even very successful systems (and unsuccessful systems) get heavily outsold their first Decembers. Your metric is bad, and you're being called on it. Find another metric. :p
 

TheOddOne

Member
Xbox 360 is best-selling console in US in 2012, sells 1.4 million in December
Microsoft touts some great numbers for its Xbox business in the US

Microsoft has just announced that Xbox 360 closed out 2012 as the best-selling console, selling another 1.4 million units for the month of December. That represents more than double the amount of the second place console in the US in the month of December, and it's the 24th consecutive month Xbox 360 has held the number one spot in the US.

The company noted that Xbox 360 generated more than $1.27 billion at retail including games, consoles and accessories in December. And the month saw tons of Xbox software purchased as well, as Xbox 360 held seven of the top 10 console game titles including Halo 4, Assassin's Creed III, Just Dance 4, NBA 2K13, Far Cry 3, Call of Duty: Black Ops II and Madden NFL 13.

"We expect 2013 will be another big year for Xbox 360 and we're eager to continue to expand and grow the offerings available on the platform," a spokesperson said.
Edit: Beaten by a long mile :p
 
Month #2 after launch for Wii U and it was destroyed by at least double of 360? Maybe triple?

That's atrocious. And no, it wasn't supply constrained or whatever bullshit excuses will be flown in the NPD results thread.

Did I miss something? Is this 2005 or 2006? Why is the standard canned response "well this happened in this year." Wii U is not the Wii, is not the PS2, is not the 360. It's the Wii U.

You know what else has modest to weak launches? Saturn, N64, Gamecube, Vita, among you know - basically 90% of the systems every launch that don't set sales on fire.

People can keep saying it doesn't matter because of this or that, but it does. Wii U isn't $250 vs. $599 or $399 consoles, its $350 vs. $250. And I don't know if you noticed but the years 2010, 2011, and 2012 happened with the Wii as well, you can't just revert to "oh well it took off in 2007 and 2008 so it will again."

Nintendo should be concerned with getting hammered this bad and horrific third party numbers.

What's with all the emotion in the responses? It's a level-headed conversation, no need to get so worked up.

Yes, Nintendo should be concerned. Of course they are.

And yes, it's not 2005, but what the previous consoles did does matter and the past is our best resource for predicting the future. It's not perfect, but you can't make a data-based forecast without a data set and then adjusting from there based on qualitative factors. You don't throw out all the data and just draw a line.

But the month of December in year 1 and only 2 months of total sales will not come anywhere near telling the whole story for the Wii U. There is plenty of time and a great many things that could happen in pricing, product, distribution, promotion and competitive activity, among hundreds of other factors, that will determine what will actually come.

So just take a breath, man. Relax. We're all just talking numbers here. It's all going to be okay.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Press release said 24, but don't know if a handheld outsold it some month in-between, since they don't consider those.
Outsold by NDS in July 2011, March 2011, November 2010, October 2010, June 2010, and wasn't in the lead for many months prior to that...
 

TheNatural

My Member!
You (and everyone else) can't tell just from the December numbers what the Wii U will go on to do in the rest of the generation. You're trying to draw a conclusion on insufficient data and being called out for not realizing that even very successful systems (and unsuccessful systems) get heavily outsold their first Decembers. Your metric is bad, and you're being called on it. Find another metric. :p

You drew a conclusion based on my post when I didn't say a damn thing about how it was going to do the rest of the generation. Go find the quote where I said "OMG Wii is DOOMED Nintendo third party 2014!"

I said the launch was atrocious. I said Nintendo should be concerned. And they should be. With the lineup they have coming up, the price, the support, how well the 360 is holding up at a pretty high price and the next generation coming up, and the fact that launch period holiday demand is usually the biggest in a console's life it's something they should worry about.

Throwing out canned "well this did this 7 years ago" doesn't have anything to do with the here and now. Any football or basketball fan can point out when they're team came from 20 point behind to win a game, but it sure isn't the norm, and they certainly would be concerned if it happened. Just like every game is different, every system is different and what's going on NOW is infinitely more important than completely unrelated factoids 7 years ago.
 

UberTag

Member
Outsold by NDS in July 2011, March 2011, November 2010, October 2010, June 2010, and wasn't in the lead for many months prior to that...
Is the Xbox 360 a portable handheld gaming system? Not last I checked.
(Sadly, my Windows Phone doesn't seem to be either. Yet another week with nothing new on tap.)

Throwing out canned "well this did this 7 years ago" doesn't have anything to do with the here and now. Any football or basketball fan can point out when they're team came from 20 point behind to win a game, but it sure isn't the norm, and they certainly would be concerned if it happened. Just like every game is different, every system is different and what's going on NOW is infinitely more important than completely unrelated factoids 7 years ago.
My Buffalo Bills made the Super Bowl 4 consecutive seasons from 1990 to 1993.
What a great team they are! Surely they will soon repeat that success! Because they did it once before.
 

andthebeatgoeson

Junior Member
You (and everyone else) can't tell just from the December numbers what the Wii U will go on to do in the rest of the generation. You're trying to draw a conclusion on insufficient data and being called out for not realizing that even very successful systems (and unsuccessful systems) get heavily outsold their first Decembers. Your metric is bad, and you're being called on it. Find another metric. :p
He is a natural

Edit: it's still a bad metric for launch, no matter how you phrase it or rephrase it.
 
Look at these sales man, there's just no way PS3 is ahead of 360 ww.

PS3 is hugely popular in Obama's Kenya.

But really, though, numbers are fairly opaque for everybody. So it's possible they're up, maybe they're done, but regardless, the margin is small and both have been successful. Fun was had by all.
 

Seda

Member
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-01-10-call-of-duty-dominates-an-awful-2012-for-us-retail

December totals and the industry for all of 2012 fell by 22% as hardware led the decline, falling 27%

The holiday season has come and gone, we've started a new year, and now we can look back at 2012. The NPD Group has just released its final monthly retail sales report and provided the totals for last year. There's no way to pretty up this car wreck. December saw total industry sales at retail drop by 22 percent, and all of 2012 was also down 22 percent at US retail. Industry sales in December came to $3.21 billion, bringing 2012's haul to $13.26 billion (compared to 2011's almost $17 billion).

Video game hardware was down 20 percent in December, totaling $1.07 billion and down 27 percent for the year, totaling $4.04 billion. Software in December (including PC) fell 27 percent to $1.58 billion while the annual total dipped 22 percent to $7.09 billion. Accessories also fell 8 percent for the year, totaling $2.51 billion.

Looking at the software charts for December and the full year, we can see that Call of Duty dominated, as Black Ops II took first place both in December and for all of 2012. Not only that, but Modern Warfare 3 also managed to make an appearance as the eighth best-selling game of 2012. Other games that were very strong performers included Halo 4, Assassin's Creed III, Just Dance 4 and Madden NFL 13.

Here are the charts for December and 2012:

cXrei.jpg
 

TheOddOne

Member
Call of Duty dominates an awful 2012 for US retail
December totals and the industry for all of 2012 fell by 22% as hardware led the decline, falling 27%

The holiday season has come and gone, we've started a new year, and now we can look back at 2012. The NPD Group has just released its final monthly retail sales report and provided the totals for last year. There's no way to pretty up this car wreck. December saw total industry sales at retail drop by 22 percent, and all of 2012 was also down 22 percent at US retail. Industry sales in December came to $3.21 billion, bringing 2012's haul to $13.26 billion (compared to 2011's almost $17 billion).

Video game hardware was down 20 percent in December, totaling $1.07 billion and down 27 percent for the year, totaling $4.04 billion. Software in December (including PC) fell 27 percent to $1.58 billion while the annual total dipped 22 percent to $7.09 billion. Accessories also fell 8 percent for the year, totaling $2.51 billion.

Looking at the software charts for December and the full year, we can see that Call of Duty dominated, as Black Ops II took first place both in December and for all of 2012. Not only that, but Modern Warfare 3 also managed to make an appearance as the eighth best-selling game of 2012. Other games that were very strong performers included Halo 4, Assassin's Creed III, Just Dance 4 and Madden NFL 13.

Here are the charts for December and 2012:

135785925509.jpg
 

TheNatural

My Member!
Wait, the natural is arguing against context to make a point that needs context? How can you say it's a bad launch without using previous data?

Wii outsold 360 and PS3 COMBINED in the first half of 2007. It was in short supply all year.

No one has provided context to anything, like that the Wii actually was supply constrained, so it sold less right when it came out. Wii U isn't, its widely available. Care to make a wager the Wii U WON'T be doing sales wise at the start of 2013 what the Wii did at the start of 2007?

The differences are fairly obvious, like price vs. competitors, launch demand, and so on. It's not the same, so stop treating it like the same.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Is the Xbox 360 a portable handheld gaming system? Not last I checked.
(Sadly, my Windows Phone doesn't seem to be either. Yet another week with nothing new on tap.)
I hope you're joking. donny2112 mused about a handheld beating the Xbox 360 in the interim. So I answered.
 
Wii outsold 360 and PS3 COMBINED in the first half of 2007. It was in short supply all year.

No one has provided context to anything, like that the Wii actually was supply constrained, so it sold less right when it came out. Wii U isn't, its widely available. Care to make a wager the Wii U WON'T be doing sales wise at the start of 2013 what the Wii did at the start of 2007?

The differences are fairly obvious, like price vs. competitors, launch demand, and so on. It's not the same, so stop treating it like the same.

So far no one is treating it like the same scenario. Well... no one in here.

But it is still way too early to act like we have any idea of direct trajectory of the platform. What we have are launch aligned sales and conjecture with no facts.
 

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
You (and everyone else) can't tell just from the December numbers what the Wii U will go on to do in the rest of the generation. You're trying to draw a conclusion on insufficient data and being called out for not realizing that even very successful systems (and unsuccessful systems) get heavily outsold their first Decembers. Your metric is bad, and you're being called on it. Find another metric. :p

So do we have cases where "successful" systems got "heavily" outsold their "first December" and they were not supply-constrained?

I don't know. I'm just asking.
 
So do we have cases where "successful" systems got "heavily" outsold their "first December" and they were not supply-constrained?

I don't know. I'm just asking.
No most of them were severely supply constrained.

Conjecture points to that not being the case for WiiU. But until we've got the numbers that's all it is.
 

Baki

Member
Black Friday has started sucking up a lot more of the retail spend in video game hardware space in the U.S.?

Plus the PS3 was only priced well during this period. Lol, this is what happens when you raise the price hahahahha

Although in Europe we had absolutely amazing PS3 bundles.
 
Then I don't understand donny's argument.

Wii's version of supply constrained was a little odd. Supply constrained to that platform was literally selling double to triple the PS2's best non-holiday months. By any other platforms metric they would have been flooding the market.

It seems he's simply stating "Getting outsold in the launch window isn't a predictor of future success or failure."
 

donny2112

Member
Then I don't understand donny's argument.

It wasn't supply-constrained that made them sell < 1m in December. It's just the way it works. Things build. More past first Decembers (when launching in Fall).

GCN/XBX - Outsold 2.5-3x (no shortages)
NDS (vs. GBA) - Outsold almost 3x (no shortages after a week or two into December)
360 - Outsold 5x (severe shortages)
PS3/Wii - Outsold 2-3x (shortages)

Don't have PS1 Fall 2000 numbers, but it's probably safe to say it outsold PS2 by about the same ratio. It's a fairly regular result, regardless of where the system ended up going from there.

It seems he's simply stating "Getting outsold in the launch window isn't a predictor of future success or failure."

December specifically, but yep, that's it.
 
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