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PS4 to lead all consoles with 51 million sold by 2016 - IDC

P

Poetic.Injustice

Member
International Data Corporation (IDC) is preparing to publish its latest console forecast and the research firm has given GamesIndustry International an exclusive preview of the report. There are several key takeaways to note, including Sony's dominance of the new console cycle, Microsoft's need to unbundle Kinect, and a general decline in the physical retail side of the games business.

IDC predicts that Sony's PlayStation 4 will have the single biggest share of the market in 2016 with 51 million sold globally. Microsoft hasn't been faring quite as well, but IDC believes Xbox One will make a serious comeback, particularly in North America where it's forecasted to take the lead. This will be spurred on by unbundling Kinect, IDC said.

"The presumed unbundling of Kinect and Xbox One, which should facilitate rough price parity between it and the PS4, should lead to a spike in Xbox One sales; assuming the console and sensor are unbundled in 2015, IDC expects Xbox One to recover and emerge with the largest installed base of any console in North America by the end of 2016," the firm explained.

Meanwhile, Nintendo's Wii U is expected to finally receive "the equivalent of a $50 price cut worldwide in late 2014 or early 2015," but it won't make a serious dent in the installed base gap between Wii U and the competition.

Looking at the bigger picture, the retail component of the video game business is expected to see continued declines, IDC said. IDC's forecast states that, together, eighth generation consoles will generate about 10 percent less retail revenue from console hardware and disc-based games than seventh generation (Xbox 360, PS3, Wii) consoles did combined through their first six years on the market.

That being said, total eighth generation console hardware revenue actually is projected to come in above the comparable seventh generation total thanks to higher average selling prices (ASPs). It's a different story, however, for the physical disc business, which IDC forecasts will see 45 percent fewer discs sold to retailers in the first six years compared to the seventh generation physical games sales.
Click to expand...

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...all-consoles-with-51-million-sold-by-2016-idc
 
Andrefpvs

Andrefpvs

Member
Not saying it won't happen, but never forget:

ProjectedConsoleChart_v1_460x323.gif


Predictions at the start of a generation generally end up inaccurate. The PS4 is off to a brilliant start, but this industry has proven more than once to be unpredictable.
 
M

McDougles

Member
With Last Guardian, Beast Souls, Uncharted 4 and MS continuing to drop the ball, comparatively? 51 million?

Good luck, even then.
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Those numbers look high for PS4, and I don't see Xbox taking the lead in the US. Even with price parity, I think Sony just has the brand, the performance and the momentum to keep ahead. Basically everything they didn't have last gen.
 
SolidSnakeUS

SolidSnakeUS

Member
51 million in it's first 3 years is actually a really damn good number. If it keeps it up and does follow this sort of thing, you could see it be over 100M by the time the next console is out.
 
B

Broken Joystick

At least you can talk. Who are you?
Meanwhile, Nintendo's Wii U is expected to finally receive "the equivalent of a $50 price cut worldwide in late 2014 or early 2015," but it won't make a serious dent in the installed base gap between Wii U and the competition.
Click to expand...

"we're expecting some sort of price drop maybe in the next year or two but it probably won't make any difference" seems kinda vague.

51 million PS4 is ambitious though. It'll do well but I'm not expecting that.
 
A

anexanhume

Member
51M is a tall order. I think the brightest projection for LTD by end of this year is 15M. They'd need to increase the average sale rate since launch to hit 51M by end of 2016.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
By the End of 2016, I can definitely see this happening, as long as Sony keeps up the momentum.

I wonder what their One and Wii U numbers are by the same time frame.
 
M

McDougles

Member
jerryvaberry said:
I feel like Microsoft has "picked up the ball" over the last couple of months.
Click to expand...

It's doing very well for its launch year. Unfortunately, the PS4 is doing much better, and have the early market share. Plus, MS couldn't win March in the US with the much-hyped Titanfall, with the PS4 outselling it. What will it take?
 
P

PotionBleue

Member
Andrefpvs said:
Not saying it won't happen, but never forget:

ProjectedConsoleChart_v1_460x323.gif


Predictions at the start of a generation generally end up inaccurate. The PS4 is off to a brilliant start, but this industry has proven more than once to be unpredictable.
Click to expand...

By curiosity do we have the IDC graph for the gen before that one?
 
D

Damaniel

Banned
I don't think that unbundling Kinect will magically make the One pull past the PS4 in America. It would certainly help to close the gap, but the only thing that will really help in the end is better exclusives. In a world where 95% of the games are available on both platforms, and 100% of those look better on the cheaper one, the exclusives are what will seal the deal.

The next Halo game being a runaway success would do far more for the Xbox One's fortunes than any unbundling or modest price drop would.
 
C

Clarkus Darkus

Member
Problem for MS is this year what do they have that's real enticing to those gamers like me who switched too the ps4? Titanfall didnt do it for me as if i wanted it i could get it for my 360, Sunset overdrive doesnt, Quantum break doesnt, And as for Halo, I feel Destiny will fill that gap for me.

Multiplat wise the ps4 generally wins so i dont have any reason or desire as of yet to even consider getting an x1, Even if they drop the Kinect aswell.

As for the ps4, That seems a high number, But the way it's going with a steady ship of games, which there main first party studios havent even come to play yet, Could quite easily be reachable.
 
K

Krusenstern

Banned
I'm sure I will have contributed to one of those sales by 2016.

But 51 millions? They sure have to deliver a plethora of killer games to even consider selling that much.
 
J

Jinko

Member
They don't mention anything about a PS4 price cut so where are they getting this 51 million from, if they think the average consumer is willing to spend that on either console they must be kidding.
 
K

Krusenstern

Banned
Wait, can they even produce that much in said time period?
PS4s are constantly outsold at most online shops and I never ever saw a PS4 at my local Media Markt.
 
E

Exploratory

Banned
Clarkus Darkus said:
Problem for MS is this year what do they have that's real enticing to those gamers like me who switched too the ps4? Titanfall didnt do it for me as if i wanted it i could get it for my 360, Sunset overdrive doesnt, Quantum break doesnt, And as for Halo, I feel Destiny will fill that gap for me.

Multiplat wise the ps4 generally wins so i dont have any reason or desire as of yet to even consider getting an x1, Even if they drop the Kinect aswell.

As for the ps4, That seems a high number, But the way it's going with a steady ship of games, which there main first party studios havent even come to play yet, Could quite easily be reachable.
Click to expand...

I don't think they need to be first to be successful. Nor do they need to get those who already have PS4s. Deliver great games and reduce the price and they'll be more then fine.

Also 51 million doesn't sound possible. They'll probably have a price drop in 2015 but even then that seems crazy.
 
D

DBT85

Member
I don't understand why people are saying 2 years. It launched in November 2013. November 2016 is 3 years.
 
D

Damaniel

Banned
akidnamededdy said:
PS4 is gonna do great but 51 million in 2016 sounds just a LITTLE ridiculous to me.
Click to expand...

Worldwide? Not completely unreasonable, but yeah - I'd consider that an overestimation. 35-40 million is probably a more generous stretch goal (assuming we're talking January 2016, not December 2016).
 
A

anexanhume

Member
DBT85 said:
51m in the first 36 months? Not seeing it. 40m maybe. 45m tops.
Click to expand...

This. Only X-factor is if it gets shot out of a fucking cannon for holiday sales. If the correct combination of title anticipation and my friend has PS4 occurs, I can see it doing 1M+ again for November and December.
 
M

mo60

Member
35-40million by the start of 2016 is more likely than 51 million in two years.If it`s three years it will be under 50 million most likely. The rate the console is selling in some of it`s weakest selling places like Japan will hurt it a lot.
 
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