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PS4 to lead all consoles with 51 million sold by 2016 - IDC
- Thread starter Poetic.Injustice
- Start date
Return of the king.
lmao
Impossible. But possible.
WeAreStarStuff
Member
Return of the king.
First time I've seen this. Incredible.
Even if that's true, it was a different time. I don't think "Dire Straits Sony" can push them out like 2001 Sony. Production take money.
Unknown One
Member
To be honest, a lot of people scuffed at the 5 million projection by Sony before launch. I'll just sit back and watch.
RoadHazard
Gold Member
So many people in this thread who can't do basic math. Or know how to read. Or understand how years work. It's not two years, people, it's three! End of 2013 through end of 2016! Three!
But yeah, 51 million might be pushing it. 45 though? Why not.
But yeah, 51 million might be pushing it. 45 though? Why not.
krypt0nian
Banned
Exciting times ahead.
BladeoftheImmortal
Member
that's three years bro.
I don't think anyone read this post.
eddfromtheriver
Banned
I don't see the XBO gaining the lead in NA at all to be honest.
So many people think Kinect is like the sole remaining albatross of Xbox One, that the dam is just waiting to break otherwise in North America. That's all that's between it and the lead, that Kinect-driven price!
Don't get me wrong, I hope they do it and think it's the right way to go (especially since they've done virtually nothing to justify its inclusion), but... It's going to be a fascinating generation when people realize that's not the only issue.
Certainly within the realm of possibility, as long as it keeps up the current pace, and the reasons to get one continue to trickle in (software/features/hardware/pricedrop).
Also, averaged across 38 months, that's ~1.3 per month. Isn't it selling slightly more than that (monthly average) already? I think ~1.4m avg as of the last update?
Also, averaged across 38 months, that's ~1.3 per month. Isn't it selling slightly more than that (monthly average) already? I think ~1.4m avg as of the last update?
Disaster Nebraska
Banned
PS4 might make it. With Japan taken out of the equation (lolconsoles?) there'd need to be a few new solid territories to make up for it. PS4 will dominate in Europe. Maybe that'll make up the difference.
I don't see Xbox One regaining marketshare in NA. Ain't happening. Consoles have already lost their status as premium gaming fixtures. Plenty of people are moving to tablets, PC, and phones. That isn't to say consoles are dying. Not at all. I simply think there will be a smaller pie to fight over this gen, and people aren't as likely this time around to become multi-console owners, especially when the cheaper one plays their favorite multiplats better and also has (historically speaking) a bigger and more varied library of exclusives. I think the core philosophy of the Xbox One is misguided, and no amount of "our messaging was bad" and "we're all about gaming" is going to change the damage done to the brand. There are plenty of people who still aren't sure that Kinect doesn't spy on them and that X1 can play used games, etc.
I don't see Xbox One regaining marketshare in NA. Ain't happening. Consoles have already lost their status as premium gaming fixtures. Plenty of people are moving to tablets, PC, and phones. That isn't to say consoles are dying. Not at all. I simply think there will be a smaller pie to fight over this gen, and people aren't as likely this time around to become multi-console owners, especially when the cheaper one plays their favorite multiplats better and also has (historically speaking) a bigger and more varied library of exclusives. I think the core philosophy of the Xbox One is misguided, and no amount of "our messaging was bad" and "we're all about gaming" is going to change the damage done to the brand. There are plenty of people who still aren't sure that Kinect doesn't spy on them and that X1 can play used games, etc.
Barkley's Justice
Member
Peace out, discs.
Agreed, seems too high to me as well.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Pretty much agreed. It would take a LOT more than just dropping the Kinect for XBO to take the lead in the U.S, and the global situation doesn't look favorable for them at all. They'll be a solid second in all the markets they're in (besides Japan) but that's it.
Also I think their PS4 numbers are too high. 45 million yeah, XBO about 30 million.
very interesting read. very well could happen that way, I think a kinect-less XB1 is a given for the future
I don't understand the scepticism towards the 51M estimate. There are a lot of things that will change this and next year, so the landscape is going to be vastly different by beginning of 2016:
- economies of scale kick in; production cost of PS4 will drop
- this will result in price cuts latest by holidays 2015
- with increased demand Sony will have it easier to increase production output
- more games are published all the time, the selection will be huge by end of 2015
- critical mass with regard to userbase: we may laugh all we want at that "first to 10M wins" quote, but once there are 10 million gamers playing with their PS4s, their friends will start following
bigboss370
Member
lol, seems like its that time of year again where sony get positive headlines every week till E3.
so far we got tlou remaster, driveclub re-reveal, project beast, and now this.
so far we got tlou remaster, driveclub re-reveal, project beast, and now this.
Axing Kinect and dropping the price will probably act a lot more like the PS3's soft relaunch than anything else. Get sales back up, make the system more lively, but ultimately trapped in the other's shadow.
The problem is always value proposition. They've tethered themselves to a tv feature than most people have products that adequately cover everything they ever want to do with that, in a business that is increasingly hostile to even the most entrenched entity within that field, and in doing that they made their system prohibitively expensive with a low tech proposition to boot. So even if they price match minus Kinect, for example, people are still going to sell: "well hell, they're both the same, but one is way more popular and all my friends are on there now, and one has the best versions of all multiplatform games, and Sony demonstrated they supported their system late into its life, and PS+ is an astonishing value proposition if I have to pay for online..."
People register simple things in their heads, but they do compare, and the comparison does not seem favorable unless the only games you happen to care about are Forza, Fable, Gears and Halo.
I'm surprised IDC isn't a banned source, seeing as how they've been wrong repeatedly (remember when they claimed the PS3 had outsold the 360, except we found out later that it hadn't, and didn't do so for, what, like, another year, and when it did, it was just barely that?).
It's the only time I think I've ever seen a numbers firm actually act like what I'd consider fanboyish.
It's the only time I think I've ever seen a numbers firm actually act like what I'd consider fanboyish.
This isn't a source though so much as a prediction. It's just them predicting shit. We gonna ban them for predicting shit wrong? It's a prediction
DangerMouse
Member
While probably not to old console levels since they're so hooked on portables, they probably will start buying more within this time frame. As long as Final Fantasy XV (or KH3) doesn't take like another 4 years to come out (like XIII - and partially the other early moneyhatting of JRPGs - did delaying the uptick in sales in Japan for PS3), they'll probably start buying more systems the moment that game has a real release date or with the game.
Lagspike_exe
Member
Demand is cyclical, they can pull out off by selling 1m average Jan-Oct and then riding the Nov-Dec seasonal demand.
jadedm17
Member
To quote Jimquisition from the episode Why The PS4 Is Kicking Xbox One's Arse: "Indies aren't a system sellers... They are however brilliant system justifiers." I'm loving my monthly PS Plus Indies, and have gotten my money's worth in just playing Don't Starve or DeadNation. If you subtract what you hope to buy it at - say $100 less Summer 2015 - then you need to think if the time missed collecting free games and playing Destiny sooner is worth the price difference. To me it was at launch.
That said I look forward to the PS4 having a strong, bright future.
I also hope Microsoft finds a way to greatly lower the price on XBox One, Kinect or not.
Then again I still find XBL's value lacking compared to PS+, and lack of things like an internal battery on the controller to be crazy.
My plan of action is to always sit back and watch. Not because I think Sony can or can't do it, just because I've seen what trying to predict an entire generation gets you. It rarely ends well.
Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew
Banned
Not saying it won't happen, but never forget:
Predictions at the start of a generation generally end up inaccurate. The PS4 is off to a brilliant start, but this industry has proven more than once to be unpredictable.
Great argument, considering this is by IDC too.
Morphine_OD
Banned
51 million in 3 years sounds impossible. I'd say 35 mils is probably more like it and 25 for Xbox One.
Hyperactivity
Banned
Return of the king.
I just realized that that gif was based entirely (as far as public knows), to the smallest digits shown, on gen 6.
Not saying it won't happen, but never forget:
Predictions at the start of a generation generally end up inaccurate. The PS4 is off to a brilliant start, but this industry has proven more than once to be unpredictable.
This.
Glad it's the 4 posts, should be the 1.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Return of the king.
Oh wow I never saw it breaking out before
PS4 is at 7 million. I reckon it could get to 15-7 million seeing how well the holidays are. I predict a monstrous 2015. If they mean by the end of 2016 then I could see it happening.
Hyperactivity
Banned
Don't understand what;s so hard to beieve
Ps4 averaging ~1 million a month in the part of the year with some of the lowest sales all around (post holiday rush)
November and December could do 4-6 million by themselves, Ps4 would need to average ~17 mil to make that figure
Ps4 averaging ~1 million a month in the part of the year with some of the lowest sales all around (post holiday rush)
November and December could do 4-6 million by themselves, Ps4 would need to average ~17 mil to make that figure
GameAddict411
Member
Sony can only do that if they drop the PS4 price to $350.
Dragonborn
Member
Didn't the X1 ship less this quarter than the X360 did back in the day (and that was supplied constrained). I don't quite understand how that indicates that it's doing very well
Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew
Banned
Easy to do. They fucking hiked it in Canada which will ruin their sales here for sure. Its in stock everywhere I see now.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
1.2 million shipped certainly shows serious slow down, especially compared to the 3 million sold by the PS4.
Yes, it's from a Gametrailers piece if I'm not mistaken.
I must have missed something obvious.
I can't underestimate consumer ignorance/apathy, and I can see people who just prefer those listed games over what Playstation has not being performance conscious enough to care that it's the notably weaker system, or possibly even blowing off the value of Plus over Gold.
Still, it's why I can't imagine the XB1 actually overtaking the PS4. PS3 became much more aggressive and actually price matched well enough as I recall, yet it still lagged outside of a GTAV bundle. Everything you said give the PS4 the edge when you figure ignorant consumers are likely roughly half and half at best, and I do believe once momentum gets going the leading console can keep the lead by inertia alone. Sony has to REALLY screw up (or Microsoft pulling off something unbelievable) to change things now, just removing Kinect and going for price parity shouldn't lead to the XB1 getting ahead, and like said I'd find it kind of irritating if that's all it took, not system selling exclusives or anything.
Would be amazing if it was like that.=pReturn of the king.