ArchedThunder
Banned
So basically 51 million in 3 years is behind both the Wii and PS2 and people are still saying it would be impossible.
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PS4 to lead all consoles with 51 million sold by 2016 - IDC
- Thread starter Poetic.Injustice
- Start date
So basically 51 million in 3 years is behind both the Wii and PS2 and people are still saying it would be impossible.
This. 51 million in 2 years sounds fucking insane. Currently Sony is average roughly 1 million sold per month, no? Wouldn't that be close to 25-30 million sold by 2016? 25 million would be good, 30 million would be great, 51 million seems impossible.
SMOK3Y
Generous Member
GT6 should have been a PS4 launch (window) title they should not have bothered with it on PS3
Yeah, I realized after looking at that it really wouldn't be a big deal to SELL that many if it can be the most successful console this generation, never mind that merely producing that many is perfectly feasible. Especially in the era of Foxconn.
EDIT: Though I guess the catch is by the end of 2016 rather than the start. I don't see it pulling that off by year start.
It will easily be over 15M by the end of the year if they can produce enough for the Holiday period. 15M is a pessimist number.
I think they mean 51M at the end of 2016, not at the beginning
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Going forward, from now until the holiday period 2014, I can only see things getting worse for the bone.
TLOU: Remastered coming in June/July, $500 million Destiny, heavily associated and with exclusive content for the PS4 coming September. Then DriveClub before the biggest exclusive title to cap off the year: The Order.
Now, the fact that the PS4's mid to late 2014 launch line-up is so comparatively strong is in large part due to a limited launch line-up of AAAA titles (not indies) available at launch. DriveClub going from a launch title to October 2014 hurt the launch line-up but obviously that release is now adding huge weight to the library of titles at the end of the year.
The worry for MS is that they had a lot of big exclusives at launch, and they have played the TitanFall card in March, but the PS4 still handedly outsold it in the same markets that both are available in. Things are going to get more uncomfortable for them looking at the line-ups going forward.
The only solution is a significant price cut. In the UK, they need to go lower than £350.
TLOU: Remastered coming in June/July, $500 million Destiny, heavily associated and with exclusive content for the PS4 coming September. Then DriveClub before the biggest exclusive title to cap off the year: The Order.
Now, the fact that the PS4's mid to late 2014 launch line-up is so comparatively strong is in large part due to a limited launch line-up of AAAA titles (not indies) available at launch. DriveClub going from a launch title to October 2014 hurt the launch line-up but obviously that release is now adding huge weight to the library of titles at the end of the year.
The worry for MS is that they had a lot of big exclusives at launch, and they have played the TitanFall card in March, but the PS4 still handedly outsold it in the same markets that both are available in. Things are going to get more uncomfortable for them looking at the line-ups going forward.
The only solution is a significant price cut. In the UK, they need to go lower than £350.
Canis lupus
Member
Will easily reach 51m sometime in 2016. In 3 years, it will both have had a 100 dollar/euro pricecut as wel as a slim model on the market.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
I can't see 51 million being sold by 2015.
Bear in mind though that it is selling roughly 1 million a month during slow sales months.
Holiday sales (November/December) would be what, almost triple that figure per month?
PS4 had sold 5 million by the end of 2013. 51 - 5 = 46.
So to hit 51 million mark by the end of 2016, PS4 would need to sell ~1.2-1.3 (46/36) million a month.
PS4 is averaging 1 million a month right now. Either the Japanese sells will have to pick up considerably, or China (if and once PS4 releases there) is going to have to make up those sells.
So to hit 51 million mark by the end of 2016, PS4 would need to sell ~1.2-1.3 (46/36) million a month.
PS4 is averaging 1 million a month right now. Either the Japanese sells will have to pick up considerably, or China (if and once PS4 releases there) is going to have to make up those sells.
ArchedThunder
Banned
For all we know it might be at $250 by the 2016 holiday season. I think we will get a $100 price cut some time next year with a revision in 2016 and it might be $50 cheaper.
It will be a lot more possible by the end of 2016 because of the holiday months.The only problem will be the amount it sells in Japan by the end of 2016 and some of the smaller countries. It`s very possible that the PS4`s ltd will be under 5 million and maybe even 4 in Japan by the end of 2016.NA.
astrogamer
Member
Also keep in mind that the rate has been slowing down since january. I can't imagine the PS4 doing a million a month from now until the Fall.
approximately...
fuck it,
51 - 4.2 = 46.8
So it would need to average 1.3 million a month for next 3 years...
51mil by the end of 2016 is achievable if pricedrops are regular. That's 4.2mil in 2013 and average of 15.6mil in the following three years.
First three years are always rising in their sales, oldgen will get abandoned few big games will attract a lot of sales. After ~3 COD games, 3 AC games, 2 BF games, and possibly one game from Rockstar [RDR sequel], FF15, KH3, and tons of Sports games, a lot of casual gamers will join the ranks of regular gamers. By end of 2016, PS4 should cost $299-349, which is the price that sold ~60-70% of PS3 consoles.
First three years are always rising in their sales, oldgen will get abandoned few big games will attract a lot of sales. After ~3 COD games, 3 AC games, 2 BF games, and possibly one game from Rockstar [RDR sequel], FF15, KH3, and tons of Sports games, a lot of casual gamers will join the ranks of regular gamers. By end of 2016, PS4 should cost $299-349, which is the price that sold ~60-70% of PS3 consoles.
That and the fact that potential buyers have no exclusives to look forward to until Fall.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Little conservative methinks. By the end of 2014 they should be around 20 million units. Likely around 8 million units by now, they've been averaging around 1 million units sold a month WW so far they've still got five months left of the calender year nonholiday months. That'd knock them up to 13 million units before the holiday.
If they increase unit production for those two months they could sell anywhere around 5 million WW in those two months. Which would put them at 18 million units before the fiscal year has ended. You get to the end of their fiscal year without significant monthly WW drops and they'd be well over half way there. By the end of 2016 they could be nearing the 60 million unit mark.
IF there isn't a significant slowdown.
If they increase unit production for those two months they could sell anywhere around 5 million WW in those two months. Which would put them at 18 million units before the fiscal year has ended. You get to the end of their fiscal year without significant monthly WW drops and they'd be well over half way there. By the end of 2016 they could be nearing the 60 million unit mark.
IF there isn't a significant slowdown.
freakzilla149
Banned
I'm willing to bet a few quid that PS4 won't reach 50m by beginning of 2016 and Xbone won't overtake the PS4 in NA.
Melchiah
Member
Looking at the EA fiscal report, I don't think it's the exclusives that sell the systems.
By end of 2016, that's likely what IDC is calculating, otherwise the numbers are ridiculous.
Anyone have the original IDC PR link for this report? As currently titled, this thread will mostly draw ridicule.
As for pulling off 51 million sales by Dec 31st, 2016, the PS4 has a good shot of achieving it.
Anyone have the original IDC PR link for this report? As currently titled, this thread will mostly draw ridicule.
As for pulling off 51 million sales by Dec 31st, 2016, the PS4 has a good shot of achieving it.
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
EA had a lineup of either well made cross gen games (NFS:Rivals, BF4 ALMOST counts) or annual sports titles that managed to make it at launch (Madden, Fifa.) Next to no one is buying these systems for Killzone or Ryse, more likely the exclusives they have their eyes on are games like Uncharted 4, Project Beast, Halo, and Quantum Break.
Granted even when the exclusives come out and are flowing they only seem to be a sure thing to push systems on Nintendo platforms, but certainly the ones out at launch aren't the most exciting, and even the better ones are arguably downgrades from before (Forza and Dead Rising.)
anexanhume
Member
I have no doubt that they can make enough for the holiday. Supposedly they were 1.6M peak production around launch. That number would go up with their processes having been refined. They could stockpile before launch too. They could support 4M a month for November and December if they wanted to in my opinion. I just don't think we'll reach much past 15M if that.
Return of the king.
never gets old
PS4 could easily hit those numbers in the same time frame.
It doesn't have much in the way of competition, wii u is effectively out of the running
and Xbox one, while still selling somewhat respectably compared to the PS4 in the US,
it's still never going to provide a real threat to PS4's sales.
The wii did it, the ps2 did it, and the ps4 is currently outpacing both.
It doesn't have much in the way of competition, wii u is effectively out of the running
and Xbox one, while still selling somewhat respectably compared to the PS4 in the US,
it's still never going to provide a real threat to PS4's sales.
The wii did it, the ps2 did it, and the ps4 is currently outpacing both.
terrisus
Member
No hindsight needed - that graph was roundly mocked at the time it was put out.
There was also another one which actually had the Wii decreasing at one point.
This seems ridiculously high. No offense to Sony, because their new system is selling very, very well; but I don't think they can even produce 51,000,000 consoles in 3 years. Sony is probably sitting just south of 8 million sold right now and we are a full six months into this generation already (a sixth of the time that these guys think Sony can sell 51 million).
I just don't see it. Even if Sony keeps up the momentum that they have now they will not be able to hit 50 million by that time.
I hope I'm wrong... but I doubt it.
I just don't see it. Even if Sony keeps up the momentum that they have now they will not be able to hit 50 million by that time.
I hope I'm wrong... but I doubt it.
Melchiah
Member
I think the next entries to popular 3rd party franchises, that won't be available on the last gen systems anymore, will draw in many of those who weren't ready to bite for the launch window titles they could play on their PS3/360.
Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
Unbundling the Kinect sensor helps but I think games are a bigger factor for Microsoft. They don't have the edge in power that would make the multiplatform titles alluring so they have to shine even brighter with lots of new IP's.
ArchedThunder
Banned
More PS2s and Wiis were made in the same time frame.
RedHotChimiChanga
Banned
Return of the king.
Where is the PS2 generation gif for the original video?
I was going to post this also. It is clear they have no idea what they are talking about. That forecast and the one they did a couple years later were FAR off from what really happened.Not saying it won't happen, but never forget:
Predictions at the start of a generation generally end up inaccurate. The PS4 is off to a brilliant start, but this industry has proven more than once to be unpredictable.
RedHotChimiChanga
Banned
Thanks.
ftfy
Exclusives aside, how the hell do people think unbundling Kinect (removing the one big exclusive feature Xbox One has) and matching the price will make it more attractive than a console that's more powerful, more compact, and has a better online service? Are they just betting that consumers are stupid and think CoD is an Xbox exclusive?
Undercutting Sony is the only way MS comes back. They also need to cut the "hur we'll just buy our exclusives" bullshit because that isn't feasible when your competitor has millions more systems sold. They need to build up first party studios the same way Sony did.
Undercutting Sony is the only way MS comes back. They also need to cut the "hur we'll just buy our exclusives" bullshit because that isn't feasible when your competitor has millions more systems sold. They need to build up first party studios the same way Sony did.
Rogue_Ledr
Banned
Respectable? That is astonishing.
Return of the king.
And that son, is how sex is for the first time.
If it kept that exact trajectory it'd be 7 times 6 half years, resulting in 42 million by the time the PS4 turns 3 in 2016. And when you consider holiday spikes especially with more system selling games it definitely sounds doable.
Ridiculous! Did the PS2 sell 51 million in 2 years?
What is this from?Return of the king.