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Is it just me or does every prediction from Idc seem to be based on complete bullshit?
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PS4 to lead all consoles with 51 million sold by 2016 - IDC
- Thread starter Poetic.Injustice
- Start date
Acquiescence
Member
I predict 40 million by 2016, and that's only off the back of some powerhouse first-party games with real console shifting ability. 51 is just too optimistic.
Yeah, 30-40 million seems more reasonable in the first 3 years. If it managed to keep that kind of pace by the end of the generation, it would be close to 100m units sold which I think would be pretty good.
I have no idea what they are on about stating the xboxone is going to pass up the PS4 within 2 years. Stay close to, or narrow the gap sure. Not drastically fall behind? Most definately. But, to pass by in sales to be in the lead or dominant? I'm just not seeing that.
Return of the king.
lol that is insane
ArchedThunder
Banned
People are having a hard time mathing.
production will increase for holidays... I think if they can maintain 1m/month for slow months, they can easily do 15.6m/year, and even more... lets not forget that PS4 sold 4.2m in 2013...
but not sure if PS4 can do 15.6/m year with XB1 beating it in the USA, and not sure why would XB1 take lead if there was price parity without kinect - you would be paying the same money for less powerful console.
so it is wild guess...
Yaphett Kotto
Member
Now it sounds a little less ridiculous.
BRocknRolla
Member
I have a hard time following the logic that gets them to a lot of their predictions.
ArchedThunder
Banned
Wait, PS3 was ahead of 360 at that point? Anyways assuming that Wii number is accurate 51 million for PS4 seems completely doable.
TheRealTalker
Banned
IDC is hoping the PS4 is the second coming of the PS2
Not ahead because 360 was out one year before in USA. PS3 was ahead in the same time frame , in this case 38 months
People forget that we were in a massive economic boom period at that point. The entire "global recession" bit that the world is struggling through makes me think consoles won't even get near these numbers for a while.
Ol No Bones
Banned
A barrage of exclusive games and most importantly a serious price drop.
Well, in some ways it's unpredictable, and in some ways it isn't. I suspect that generally momentum built at the start of a generation holds out pending freak surprises, and the 360 got to its position because of that strong early momentum and then the Kinect rejuvenating as the inertia started to give (and price drops!), yet even then the PS3 was very close. The PS4 dropped two of the key problems holding back the PS3 (higher price point and generally inferior multiplats), even if the PS3 got better about that in the end it can't fully shake that reputation off, especially when you have the likes of CoD having built their bases strongly on 360.Not saying it won't happen, but never forget:
Predictions at the start of a generation generally end up inaccurate. The PS4 is off to a brilliant start, but this industry has proven more than once to be unpredictable.
I think similarly the PS4's momentum will keep going and while the XB1 won't outright fail it probably can't take the lead in the US now, not without surprises bigger then the kinect debundling. It'd actually be kind of irritating if price parity and Kinect debundling was all it'd take, I'd just have to hope it's more for the sake of playing Halo, Gears, Xbox exclusives in general than some sort of blind brand loyalty.
Shin
Banned
Return of the king.
Hahaha that gif seriously made me LOL.
Infinite Xero
Member
I'm more interested in their prediction that XB1 would be the most sold console in NA by 2016 if they unbundled Kinect.
I know PS4 and XB1 sales are fairly close right now, despite the XB1 costing $100 more, but I don't see a price drop causing the XB1 to spike in sales that much. PS4 will be the de facto console WW this generation .
I know PS4 and XB1 sales are fairly close right now, despite the XB1 costing $100 more, but I don't see a price drop causing the XB1 to spike in sales that much. PS4 will be the de facto console WW this generation .
ArchedThunder
Banned
Didn't stop the PS4's amazing launch and current momentum. The system will probably also have a huge spike in sales from September to the end of the year.
I wonder where WiiU will be sitting at by late 2016. At this point doing GCN numbers would be desirable, and IMO it's not that unlikely. Isn't it currently at ~6 million systems? With a future price drop and popular first party stuff I can see it approaching GCN's ~20 million systems eventually.
yurinka
Member
Kaz laughs while sitting in his throne. He expects to have 40 Millions LTD until the end of 2016.
I don't think XBO will match PS4 in USA specially after Uncharted 4, GT7 and maybe The Last of Us 2 in the market plus 2 or 3 years of cheaper price, better multis and PS+ in PS4.
Glorified G
Member
This seems really optimistic.
This also seems really optimistic.
Everything is optimistic!
ryūkotsusei
Member
Does anyone know where I can read these reports without spending thousands?
The Maverick
Member
Crazy numbers all around.
1. 51 million is impossible unless Call of Duty comes out with VR or something. It'd take a revolution to hit that by 2016.
2. I don't think matching PS4 on price will bring Xbox One ahead in NA at this point.
3. A blind man could guess the fate of the Wii U, so I'll give them that.
1. 51 million is impossible unless Call of Duty comes out with VR or something. It'd take a revolution to hit that by 2016.
2. I don't think matching PS4 on price will bring Xbox One ahead in NA at this point.
3. A blind man could guess the fate of the Wii U, so I'll give them that.
At the beginning of the year I thought that the Xbox One - the All-In-One Entertainment System would take the US back from the PS4, but with the March numbers not delivering for Microsoft (the Titanfall month) I am quite skeptical. The PS4 is already becoming the de-facto next-gen machine at which point even price parity will not put MS back into the lead. Titanfall 2 will also be on the PS4 and who knows whether Activision will still give MS early access to CoD maps (at a minimum they will increase the cost for MS).
yurinka
Member
They are as reliable as the one from any average gaffer, or less.
Blackage
Member
I guess when you consider the combined last gen was like 280 million home consoles, and this gen the PS4 doesn't have to contend with a Nintendo mindshare for the home console market, and the Xbox is trailing behind 2:1 there's a lot of that market on the table for Sony to grab in 3 years.
Exploratory
Banned
Didn't GT6 sell terribly? They have to compete with Horizon Project Cars Drive Club etc. I don't see that being a big factor anymore.
If you paid attention to mythology it's generally the blind ones that are best at guessing anyway.
GT6 was largely the victim of poor release timing. A proper next gen GT7 released in a reasonable time frame would probably get people excited, just look at how some series spike back up because of that next gen appeal in prior generations.
Not saying it won't happen, but never forget:
Predictions at the start of a generation generally end up inaccurate. The PS4 is off to a brilliant start, but this industry has proven more than once to be unpredictable.
The timing is off and the 360's numbers are awful but the PS3 and Wii will end up very close lol.
Net_Wrecker
Member
51 million by 2016 is nuts. I don't see that happening at all.
rokkerkory
Member
51m in 2 years? really can product that many? i dunno
CriterionDog
Member
Dang. I was going to be surprised if they even make 15 million by the end of this year...
prag16
Banned
That sounds a little too aggressive. Perhaps if the torrent of zomg awesome games is epic, and the price is $299 for the last stretch of that timeframe. Otherwise I think 40 is a much more reasonable target (though still a little higher than I'd predict) with xbone trailing by 5-10 million units.
ArchedThunder
Banned
3 years.
HORRORSHØW
Member
that's Candide-levels of optimism.
LordOcidax
Member
Nop. Not going to happen. Maybe 2017
It won't .
Four_Chamber
Member
IDC projections are no better than those of any member here.
Sounds like some overly optimistic person just randomly guessed this number, no chance its happening
Sounds like some overly optimistic person just randomly guessed this number, no chance its happening
Not saying it won't happen, but never forget:
Predictions at the start of a generation generally end up inaccurate. The PS4 is off to a brilliant start, but this industry has proven more than once to be unpredictable.
To be fair, the Wii portion of this graph is spot-on.
gundamkyoukai
Member
51 million is no problem if they mean 3 years .