I think that is the "typical" version of this role in these games (based on reading some Wikis) but in this variant it could work different. Can't know for sure.
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I think that is the "typical" version of this role in these games (based on reading some Wikis) but in this variant it could work different. Can't know for sure.
Zippedpinhead
Member
TL: DR:
Assuming the second killer is town aligned and that the Larger mafia targeted someone:
If the second killer acted last night, it is most likely they were role blocked. - Most likely solution. This tells Mafia they can target him the next night and kill the second killer.
If the second killer acted last night and targeted the same person that karkador did, then we know Traube is Mafia.
If the second killer did NOT act last night, then we learn nothing. BUT the Mafia will probably kill someone that isn't Ultron, Karkador or Quantum tonight thinking they can get an easy kill on the Second killer.
If the second killer is Mafia aligned, then it is more likely that one of them targeted karkador and he save traube through his move. This tells us nothing about Traube, but it does tell us that either the second killer could not target someone each night or one of them chose not to kill last night.
I am also thinking with Ultron's role, and the town sleepwalker, and the Utter lack of anyone else pushing random people (other than El Topo), I think we do not Have a Cop and the closest thing we have is Ultron.
We have Peeping tom (Ultron), Switcher (Quantum_Bro), Second killer (Unknown/unknown alignment), Role Blocker (Unkown Mafia), town sleepwalker (Palmer), and Doctor (Karkador). Third person Ultron saw on Second night (unknown role/ May be Mafia or Town) While it is likely we have a few more roles, I'm pretty sure we are NOT going to see a cop/investigator in that mix.
Ultron, Who is the third person you saw on the second night? If they are mafia, I think it is unlikely you will ever see them again until you are dead (since the mafia know you can see people they will probably NOT throw a hit with that person again), unless they are a town aligned killer. By saying you saw them it forces them to say who they are or we string them up. It will also clear up whether we can trust Karkador and Quantum.
Assuming the second killer is town aligned and that the Larger mafia targeted someone:
If the second killer acted last night, it is most likely they were role blocked. - Most likely solution. This tells Mafia they can target him the next night and kill the second killer.
If the second killer acted last night and targeted the same person that karkador did, then we know Traube is Mafia.
If the second killer did NOT act last night, then we learn nothing. BUT the Mafia will probably kill someone that isn't Ultron, Karkador or Quantum tonight thinking they can get an easy kill on the Second killer.
If the second killer is Mafia aligned, then it is more likely that one of them targeted karkador and he save traube through his move. This tells us nothing about Traube, but it does tell us that either the second killer could not target someone each night or one of them chose not to kill last night.
I am also thinking with Ultron's role, and the town sleepwalker, and the Utter lack of anyone else pushing random people (other than El Topo), I think we do not Have a Cop and the closest thing we have is Ultron.
We have Peeping tom (Ultron), Switcher (Quantum_Bro), Second killer (Unknown/unknown alignment), Role Blocker (Unkown Mafia), town sleepwalker (Palmer), and Doctor (Karkador). Third person Ultron saw on Second night (unknown role/ May be Mafia or Town) While it is likely we have a few more roles, I'm pretty sure we are NOT going to see a cop/investigator in that mix.
Ultron, Who is the third person you saw on the second night? If they are mafia, I think it is unlikely you will ever see them again until you are dead (since the mafia know you can see people they will probably NOT throw a hit with that person again), unless they are a town aligned killer. By saying you saw them it forces them to say who they are or we string them up. It will also clear up whether we can trust Karkador and Quantum.
That's a good analysis, but for now I doubt it will lead anywhere. I just don't think the mafia would draw attention to themselves by claiming to have a special role, at least not now. They've been beating us every round, there's no need for them to risk anything. Furthermore, contradictions (if there are any) could simply be a result of bad memory.
Don't get me wrong, I think it's important we think this all through, but we shouldn't get distracted too much. The day ends tomorrow and if we don't watch out they stir us in their desired direction again.
When Quantumbro posted that vague switch message, without any context, hiding his role, it just confused my pants off. I wish he was more honest the first time around, it might have saved Kalor. However, I don't think his move was out of any mafia-related misdeed. I can argue it was an act of self preservation, while still trying to inform the group.
Now...everything else you said, I don't know.
Zippedpinhead
Member
Two liars? I count one place where a liar probably exists (my massive posts earlier today), where would the other be (or are two involved in that one by your account)
I think there is *at least* one liar active in the discussion right now. If we account for the Ultron, QuantumBro, Karkador thing, I think we most likely have another as well.
Just because they are lying doesn't necessarily mean they are mafia, remember. QuantumBro technically lied already about the switch, but claims he isn't mafia. So, obviously, there are reasons a townie would lie to protect himself.
QuantumBro
Banned
Sorry for being not commenting much this past week, I'm finishing up my winter quarter at school. I've been reading through the thread and have come up with a few theories. No idea who I'm going to vote for this day, RobotNinjaHornets would be the obvious choice since they accused me, I'll read through some of their past posts today.
1. If you trust ultron87, then only one of the people he listed on Night 2 can be Mafia.
- Why would the Mafia send two members, to the house of someone they are going to kill and still be unsuccessful in doing so.
- Naturally, this also means that one of the three people are a Mafia member.
2. The role blocker is likely a village role.
- If the Mafia had a role blocker among them, last night would've guaranteed them at least one kill of either me, Karkador, or ultron87, or they would've role blocked ultron87. There is no benefit to the Mafia for keeping any of us alive.
3. The Mafia's can target one person to kill a night. Their targets have been (in order), Barrylocke, Timeaisis, Foshy, irfanaator, and unknown.
- All of these make sense with the Mafia silencing people
4. johnnyquicknives used his kill on Duress.
- Only reason I have to suspect that is his post after Duress died.
Stretch Theory. There are at least two other roles with one-time kills (one of them is a mafia role)
- This would explain why there seem to be random targets, such as Duress on Night 1, and Kalor on Night 3.
- Is there any town member that would like to admit they have this role and used it? Since you've already used up your role, it won't make you an immediate target.
Yeah I admit I could've handled the Kalor situation better, but I did have the best intentions. I introduced the message to try to save Kalor and all my actions on that day how that.
1. If you trust ultron87, then only one of the people he listed on Night 2 can be Mafia.
- Why would the Mafia send two members, to the house of someone they are going to kill and still be unsuccessful in doing so.
- Naturally, this also means that one of the three people are a Mafia member.
2. The role blocker is likely a village role.
- If the Mafia had a role blocker among them, last night would've guaranteed them at least one kill of either me, Karkador, or ultron87, or they would've role blocked ultron87. There is no benefit to the Mafia for keeping any of us alive.
3. The Mafia's can target one person to kill a night. Their targets have been (in order), Barrylocke, Timeaisis, Foshy, irfanaator, and unknown.
- All of these make sense with the Mafia silencing people
4. johnnyquicknives used his kill on Duress.
- Only reason I have to suspect that is his post after Duress died.
Stretch Theory. There are at least two other roles with one-time kills (one of them is a mafia role)
- This would explain why there seem to be random targets, such as Duress on Night 1, and Kalor on Night 3.
- Is there any town member that would like to admit they have this role and used it? Since you've already used up your role, it won't make you an immediate target.
Yeah I admit I could've handled the Kalor situation better, but I did have the best intentions. I introduced the message to try to save Kalor and all my actions on that day how that.
pants
Member
Yeah I'm saying some people lying arent mafia.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
I'll get to the rest of your post in a bit, but hold the phone.
You voted for Kalor the day before Ward died leading to Kalor being lynched. You didn't retract your lynch vote before the day ended, but then supposedly decide "Oh no actually he's good I'll protect him". Which seems bizarre at best.
On top of that, I can't see any situation where bringing up that Kalor and Ward got switched when Ward got killed was never going to help, it just makes Kalor look bad.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Just a polite reminder there are only 5 hours left. I was going to do a vote count but there are only 3 so it doesn't seem like there's much need.
Zippedpinhead
Member
I have an issues with these assumptions: more real issues with the first two and the Duress one is just a thought experiment.
2: I do not think hat the role blocker can ever benefit the town, that is why I assume it is a Mafia role. Role blocker is primarily to prevent the flow of information, prevent a save, or stop the second "town" killer from performing an action. This action means that he would essentially never want to perform his action if he is town, as he would prevent us all from learning things. I suspect that he operates under the same rules as Karkador, in that he can not perform his action on the same person two nights in a row. So he wanted to save his block on Ultron until after karkador was killed. This leads into my other theories from up above (that either Traube has a role that prevents night time death and/or Karkador picked the person that got saved from the mafia hit and that the role blocker blocked the second killer)
3: Duress took two nights to die, even if you are right on action 4, it would have meant that he was targeted by another person the first night (As johnny could only target a person for death once over the course of one night). That first night could easily have been a mafia hit. I think our regular second killer is just one person, they have been far to consistent otherwise. (Duress, Duress, Kalor and who knows)
4: As far as Duress and Johnnyquickknives? I took it from Johnny's written note that he had not had time to perform his action yet, but I might have been reading into that too much. Now with the regularity of a second killer, I am fairly sure we just have 1 more killer, who has rules preventing his acting every night. It is possible that Johnny DID use his kill on the second night on Duress, which opens the Mafia up to kill timeasis (which was saved) and their secondary killer could not act that night (based on his rules about not killing every night). I think if Johnny had targeted Timeasis Ultron would have told us, the the opposite (that Mafia targeted Duress, and Johnny got Time is not possible).
NEW Theory on Second killer use:
1st night: Secondary killer or mafia Targeted Barrylocke on the first night, Mafia or Secondary killer tried (and failed) to kill Duress. (The bolded is who I think is most likely the killer)
2nd night: Mafia or Johnny Kills Duress (The mafia would target him a second time thinking, since someone died the first night, the doctor does not know they saved anyone and will probably not save that person again) Duress dies. Timeasis is either attempted to be killed by mafia (if Johnny kills duress) OR a different/ non-killer role (one that has not revealed themselves yet) looks at him. Secondary killer can not kill due to rules. I think it is probably more likely that the mafia tried for two nights to kill duress, and that the third person who looked at time is NOT a killer role.
3rd night: Foshy is "shut up" by the mafia,
though I am not sure why he really wasn't as active as the other powers (like Palmer, myself, timeasis, ultron and yourself).
4th night: Irfaanator is killed, he was fairly active, but not too active, Mafia may have thought he was easy pickings. Secondary killer can not act due to rules.
5th night: Secondary killer is role blocked, Karkador saves the mafia kill or his being switched with Traube prevents a death due to Traube having a role that prevents his death at night .
In my head this is the ONLY Thing that makes sense for a no kill night five, The mafia has ALWAYS targeted someone and to skip a night would essentially give us all an extra day to root out a mafioso without losing a vote. The Secondary killer hasn't skipped any night that he could kill either. I don't think Crab would assign two people roles that take two nights to kill, so this HAS to be it.
If we lose the secondary killer tonight, I can almost guarantee you that the role blocker is mafia. I think that if they have a reasonable guess on a town aligned killer, they would target him over karkador. Eventually the secondary killer will guess right, and that is scarier than a doctor preventing a death.
tomakasatnav
Member
I might not be around for the final hours (I'm on a business trip) so I'll throw in a
vote: no lynch for now, and hopefully update
vote: no lynch for now, and hopefully update
That quote is not me, for the record. That was QuantumBro.
I don't feel strongly enough about anyone and time is running out. So unless someone can convince me otherwise:
Vote: No Lynch
QuantumBro
Banned
Regarding 2: There are town roles that have role blocking as an option. The biggest reason I think it's a town role is that no one died yesterday. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Roleblocker
Regarding 3: Duress' situation is confusing, but I think that it shows that the Mafia only has a single kill a night. There are not two killers on the Mafia side.
Regarding 4: It's a complete guess on my part. If it's true it would help to clear up a role. Remember that the notes cannot contain game information, so we can't guess anything from it.
QuantumBro
Banned
At the end of the that day, I did believe that Kalor was a Mafia member. It wasn't until after I switched Kalor and Ward that night and then saw the results the next day that I changed my viewpoint and decided to protect Kalor since he was a target the night below.
Zippedpinhead
Member
I think this is where we disagree, I think that the role blocker is mafia because there were no deaths last night. I have convinced that the secondary killer is town aligned, and I know that the link you posted has it be POSSIBLE that the role blocker is town, they also note that it is most commonly a mafia power role.
I am voting for a death tonight, because I am not sure I am going to survive another night.
I am tempted to Vote Traube, because I think he is a bulletproof mafia player, BUT I don't think I have been as convincing to others as I have to myself. I like the arguments for the semi-inactive players, so...
vote= robotninjahornets
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
Ah right, so you were trying to intercept the kill action and move it onto Kalor, instead of away. That makes sense, hadn't thought of it that way around. Why did you think Ward might be targeted?
QuantumBro
Banned
I picked him at random. Most of my switches have been like that.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
Fair enough. That clears up that then.
That said, I'm not convinced by the whole thing and still have some issues with the premise of the cop-type/doctor-type/switcher-type threesome being true.
But my hand has been forced.
VOTE: No lynch
Thank you. If I'm wrong, well, then we're screwed anyway I guess.
Lynching someone who is suspicious but town is better than lynching no one at this juncture, IMO. If we no lynch we'll gain no information again, and I think you and zipper are making the most sense right now.
We keep debating in circles and getting no where. Might as well take a shot on this one, even though I'm not 100% convinced.
It's probably more viable to lynch (mostly) randomally, but that's honestly no fun. Maybe it makes even sense not to lynch, depending on the roles there are, but did we (as a group) gain any vital information the past few days? Anything that tells us who the mafia are?
Maybe a cop has information, but I haven't been bothered to read through the thread for subtle clues and it seems no one else has, so basically for all we know we have no information. I think a strategy change makes sense and RNH simply fits the bill perfectly. That doesn't mean that we have to lynch all the inactive players, but I think it's worth a shot.
If he's really mafia we can still discuss on how to further approach things. If not, well, in that case we have screwed up again, but at least we went with a different strategy than the past days (which never paid off).
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
What do you mean I didn't acknowledge it? I responded directly to you and defended myself. I've become more active now because we actually have some information to go off, when we had barely anything the first few days and it was all guesswork. And of course I'm going to become at least a bit more active after being accused, why wouldn't I? Not to mention that this is the first time I've actually had anything approaching a decent idea as to who's what. Like, what am I supposed to do in this situation?
Lord of Castamere
Member
Sorry I've been caught up in the Order. So I read the arguments and like the last few weeks I'm not feeling it. We're still blindly pawing forward without any guidance.
Without a soild argument base, besides inactive, I'm gonna stay with the No lynch.
The sad fact is I'm not the most active person here either, so if I support a campaign against them what arguments could I have when my ticket is called?
VOTE: No Lynch
Without a soild argument base, besides inactive, I'm gonna stay with the No lynch.
The sad fact is I'm not the most active person here either, so if I support a campaign against them what arguments could I have when my ticket is called?
VOTE: No Lynch
QuantumBro
Banned
How can people vote no lynch at this point when we've gotten no information whatsoever these past days? Did any of the "information" ever lead us to mafia? Spoiler alert: It didn't.
Oh well, it's no lynch. I can't wait for the spectacular new information that will totally make this all worth it, like who switched who with random or whether or not anyone is lying, which will then lead us to vote no lynch.
Sorry if I sound a tiny bit on tilt.
Oh well, it's no lynch. I can't wait for the spectacular new information that will totally make this all worth it, like who switched who with random or whether or not anyone is lying, which will then lead us to vote no lynch.
Sorry if I sound a tiny bit on tilt.
QuantumBro
Banned
Eh sure, why not
VOTE: RobotNinjaHornets
The vote for RobotNinjaHornets is now one ahead if I did my math correctly.
Haha this is how I feel right now as well.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
Oh come on, you've completely ignored my argument. You decided that I'm dying and have just ignored everything I've said.
Seriously, what am I supposed to do in this situation? I get accused and I have actual thoughts for once but OH NO HE'S SUSPICIOUSLY POSTING NOW! MUST MEAN HE'S MAFIA! It's bullshit. What do you hope to achieve? All you're gonna get is that oops, we killed a good guy. Again. Then what? Where do you go from there?
Well, we tried this the past days, but if you go down RNH, anyone you want us to lynch? Like, I'm willing to vote for anyone you name (excluding myself) and do my best to convince the others to lynch them. Unless you turn out to be mafia of course.
First of all, let me apologize. I lost my temper for a second, long day. Second, yeah, I kinda misremembered the conversation we had earlier, although your reaction afterwards still seemed a bit like a distraction strategy. No reaction to Palmer's vote, instead you first came up with another theory (and voted for QuantumBro).
I'm not even denying that my theory that you're mafia is not too solid, but I think a change of strategy might pay off. Sorry though for confusing things and especially sorry if you're a tourist.
First of all, let me apologize. I lost my temper for a second, long day. Second, yeah, I kinda misremembered the conversation we had earlier, although your reaction afterwards still seemed a bit like a distraction strategy. No reaction to Palmer's vote, instead you first came up with another theory (and voted for QuantumBro).
I'm not even denying that my theory that you're mafia is not too solid, but I think a change of strategy might pay off. Sorry though for confusing things and especially sorry if you're a tourist.
QuantumBro
Banned
I'm willing to change my vote if you can point out another target. You're low on my suspects list, but at this point we really should be lynching someone during the day.
Sorry, I corrected myself now.
What do we gain from not killing anyone? Did we get any useful information the past days? Is there any reason to assume things will magically get better if we don't lynch? I agree that there's no evidence against you, I certainly havenone, but then we have no evidence against anyone.
If someone can convince me why it's reasonably not to lynch anyone, feel free. There's fourty minutes left. Otherwise I think it's worth to risk it and change strategy after lynching "obviously suspicious" players didn't pay off (in any way).
It's not like I know RNH is mafia. I don't. There's no evidence. I don't want to lynch another tourist. I just honestly don't see how another day is gonna help us if it didn't this time and I think a change of strategy is necessary.
Admittedly, not lynching would also be a change, I guess.
Admittedly, not lynching would also be a change, I guess.
Sorry I've been fairly inactive guys, I've been really busy with school and stuff all week.
Pretty much. No lynch is not an option at this point, but I'm not sure on anybody right now. RNH is looking like the best candidate though.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
*sigh*
It's come to this then.
I have a role. Ultron can back me up (if he was telling the truth and didn't just get lucky). I can check out if someone's targeted anyone. Night 3, Palmer. That was me
It's come to this then.
I have a role. Ultron can back me up (if he was telling the truth and didn't just get lucky). I can check out if someone's targeted anyone. Night 3, Palmer. That was me
QuantumBro
Banned
Want to reveal everything you've learned, since you're about to be lynched?
So that pretty much confirms he's tourist, unless you (and he I guess) are mafia? Someone help me out here, it's almost midnight and my brain is fried.
QuantumBro
Banned
If RobotNinjaHornets posts their list within the next few minutes, I'll change my vote.