I think he means dropping Kinect in general. Everybody was already going on about how the Kinect was a massive anchor on the ship that is the Xbox One, and how it was bound to be cut sooner or later. As for when the drop was going to be announced, that caught a lot of us off guard. I'm sure most people were expecting the cut to be at E3 at the earliest. The fact that it happened when it did was a sort of surprise.
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NPD Sales Results for April 2014 [Up2: XB1/360 hardware, PS4 #1/XB1 #2 best selling]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
I think he means dropping Kinect in general. Everybody was already going on about how the Kinect was a massive anchor on the ship that is the Xbox One, and how it was bound to be cut sooner or later. As for when the drop was going to be announced, that caught a lot of us off guard. I'm sure most people were expecting the cut to be at E3 at the earliest. The fact that it happened when it did was a sort of surprise.
Wii U isn't going to sell another system ever? Damn that's harsh
Well, you confirmed my tese. PS4 is not Wii or PS2. Maybe not even 360 (in America)
shinra-bansho
Member
But the TTM isn't being compared to 2012, it's being compared to the past decade. It's approaching historical norms outside of the cyclical trough. The rate of recovery has also been faster than normal (probably due to the extended cycle which brought the TTM to abnormal lows as well) so it wouldn't be wholly unexpected to slow now.
I think everybody's aware there was a large expansion and subsequent contraction due to the Wii. One would only expect the new cycle to pick up that slack, if they believed the PS4 could attract those consumers back - and I don't think anyone does, especially at this price point.
Randolph Freelander
Member
Confirmed.
Of course. 115k is very bad.
Well to be fair there were plenty of people who said it will never happen too, especially after MS PR denied the possibility.
But yeah it played out exactly like CBOAT said..they saw the numbers for April in May and we got the announcement from MS two weeks into the month.
It definitely won't be a ps2. PS2 was one of a kind and will probably remain unmatched.
Xilium
Member
I don't think we have any evidence to support that digital is booming on anything other than PC. I believe only Nintendo has released any numbers and I think that was @ 11% (edit: source), which falls in line with the average of 10% we've been seeing in these NPD threads for some time now. Other than that, we only have the (probably) outlier in Animal Crossing New Leaf which was at 30% in Japan IIRC.
While I do think digital is growing outside of PCs, I don't think it's nearly as big a deal as people on here tend to make it out to be.
Until they see the right game. Personally I think Arkham Knight is going to turn some heads.
BananaSprinkles
Banned
You're right. The PS4 isn't the Wii or the 360. It's a Sony console. It isn't the PS2. It's the successor to the successor of the PS2.
but when multiplatform games go next gen only what will the 250million last gen owners do?
they will have no choice but to upgrade.
I think current gen console sales will see a big increase starting this fall, when even casual COD players will start to see and want the better current gen version of COD:AW, assassins creed unity, battlefield 5 etc
Adoption is going to take slight longer this gen because the cross gen games are so similar.
It will be interesting what happens for sales on all consoles going forward. Not troubling just yet because of E3 but...
In my opinion, the media really fucked up in selling this generation to consumers. For example, selling Titanfall the hardest as a next title when it is actually crossgen creates a ton of market confusion for outsiders looking at what "next gen" means. The great things about next gen, ie visuals and power, have been almost completely swept under the carpet to compensate for parity, cross-gen, or upselling some bullshit title from a big named publisher.
Sony and MS need to blow consumers faces off with E3 from a true next gen hardware standpoint. The media needs to start selling it with honesty.
In my opinion, the media really fucked up in selling this generation to consumers. For example, selling Titanfall the hardest as a next title when it is actually crossgen creates a ton of market confusion for outsiders looking at what "next gen" means. The great things about next gen, ie visuals and power, have been almost completely swept under the carpet to compensate for parity, cross-gen, or upselling some bullshit title from a big named publisher.
Sony and MS need to blow consumers faces off with E3 from a true next gen hardware standpoint. The media needs to start selling it with honesty.
Ridiculous prediction anyway.
MS will make sure XB1 is at the least on par with PS4 in the US and UK. Japan will be minimal for PS4 this gen, so PS4's lead will basically be what it sells in Europe minus whatever XB1 sells there.
Certainly not going to be an 80m gap, I don't know how anyone can say that with a straight face.
Suzushiiro
Banned
Yeah, that's why I think LTD is more relevant than overall sales curve here. When these things dip below their predecessors in LTD sales relative to launch date we can talk about doom and gloom, but at present I think it's more likely that the usual crowd that gets their consoles in the first year or so (ie between launch and when they've built up a decent library/gotten a price drop) just got them earlier this time. Sales will probably stay relatively low through the summer (though maybe Watch Dogs will trigger a spike in May/June) then "normalize" once the big releases hit this fall.
Until there are games that are only available on PS4 and Xbox One that are major franchises, I think we'll see both Xbox One and PS4 slump. The biggest issue I'm noticing is most if not all games available and coming this year are available on last generation platforms. Why buy a new system when the games they're getting are coming to a system you already own? Sure enthusiasts like to debate performance but does it actually matter at all to a casual consumer as long as they have access to the game?
Officerrob
Banned
Currently available at Target.com, Walmart.com, Bestbuy.com, Gamestop.com, and Amazon.com, the supply constrain is over
Especially when you consider the giant time gap they're leaving themselves. And who knows how the early 3DS version will cripple their own sales.
maabus1999
Member
I don't get how many people are coming up with this 120 million PS4 prediction. Japan will sell less then 10 million, the US won't breach 40 million (that is 1/4 of US households), and Europe plus the world is not going sell 70 million (twice the US).
Only way this would happen is if suddenly China became seriously involved and bought 25-30 million.
No matter how you cut it, this generation is going to shrink by console units sold, and it wouldn't surprise me if it shrinks by somewhere between 30 and 50%.
Only way this would happen is if suddenly China became seriously involved and bought 25-30 million.
No matter how you cut it, this generation is going to shrink by console units sold, and it wouldn't surprise me if it shrinks by somewhere between 30 and 50%.
Grandmas aren't going to buy a ps4 and isn't $250.
Also in 2007 when the 360 had competition the ps4 is ahead.
Really interesting NPD. PS4 outsold Xbox One but no numbers so does that mean the PS4 drop was pretty large for the month overall vs. April? (Sorry if it has been stated before... This is my first time coming into the thread).
Heh, also, I think there's definitely a good possibilty of the Wii U outselling the Xbox One this month in the US.
Heh, also, I think there's definitely a good possibilty of the Wii U outselling the Xbox One this month in the US.
I am curious where you get this reasoning from. What about MS the last few years gives you this confidence?
I'm fascinated by how this industry is crashing. The amount of people that have left for mobile is amazing. I was shocked that people were saying that this generation was going to be bigger than the last. Can't see this generation coming anywhere close to the 250+ million of the last at this point.
Oh come on it's a slow month without releases. People need reasons to buy 400$ systems, right now the lineup for next gen consoles is just disappointing, it will probably take until the end of this year to make it really appealing.
Hopefully Watch Dogs isn't a disappointment otherwise there's basically nothing to play until TLOU, Diablo 3 (both updated ports, the former just on PS4) and Evil Within (niche title and already with a bad round of previews :/).
So there's nothing to justify these huge sales you want to see.
Don't get me wrong I agree.
I just think most of them wont be buying anytime soon at least until the next big time comes along.
EL CUCO
Member
Come on you know what he meant. Obviously not referring to MLB as not a game. It's the indies that aren't games.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
This gen isn't going to be as artificially extended in its lifespan as the last one was, for a variety of reasons.
A) The fact they're clearly fighting back now and B) the fact that PS4 isn't dominating XB1 in the UK and US. If/when Microsoft make all the right moves in these countries, they can easily gain parity with PS4 there (and equally have a shot of doing better.) The lead in both countries is pretty minor in % terms.
I think amongst the madness you maybe missed the point.
Lol, MS in that tailspin.
maabus1999
Member
Normal mature markets have room for 3 primary competitors, known as the Rule of Three. If a market can not support three, then that isn't a mature market, it is a shrinking market.
DangerMouse
Member
While it won't be "huge" and might only be similar to the PS3 in the end, Japan probably won't be entirely minimal either once FFXV and KH3 (with a tiny bit of Phantom Pain) come out and they start getting some more Japanese PS4 games. They only have a handful of games at the moment and S-E has pathetically (as expected) not even dated FFXV (let alone KH3) for them yet to even give Japanese gamers any idea when it's coming, probably their two most wanted games on PS4 at the moment. After seeing how many years it took S-E to get out FFXIII it wouldn't shock me if they're actually waiting for a date this time so as not to get fooled by FFXV not being still a year or two or more out.
Yeah, even DC managed to push 10m in 2 years. Wii U cooooould match that by the end of htis year, and even if it doesn't Nintendo are definitely going to ride it out longer than Sega.
And yeah, just from anecdotal experience I know there's a segment of the market that doesn't even know or care about the MS 180 and either has or wants an Xbox One because their last console was a 360. I don't think the One will do as well as the 360, but it's not going to drop to just above original Xbox numbers. It's not like Wii where a huge segment of the market just isn't showing up this generation.
Graphics Horse
Member
Well hopefully Sony has a lot more at E3 than 'play the great games you played last generation but this time in HD-er HD!
one it seems ps4 demand in na has caught up with supply. Posters indicate demand in Europe still remains unmet. (What is the ratio of playstaions NA vs Europe in general? 1:1? Im taking about averaging both ps2 and ps3)
two are the trends we're seeing post launch. I know the launch numbers were insane. Say we go december to april do we see a similar trend from past generations when they werent supply constrainted ? 8:3:3:4:2 ?
two are the trends we're seeing post launch. I know the launch numbers were insane. Say we go december to april do we see a similar trend from past generations when they werent supply constrainted ? 8:3:3:4:2 ?
I understand this, I'm just saying you can't just discount it as if it doesn't matter. The whole reason contraction is occurring is because all those (much more profitable) consumers who bought Wii's last generation aren't buying any consoles today, and that fact is invisible on your chart. There were a lot of those consumers, and those consumers were highly profitable, and they've been scooped up by competitors like Apple and Google and lost by the console manufacturers.
In other words, we aren't just losing a random sampling of consumers from the console market, we're losing the most profitable ones first, with the remaining "core" gamers typically offering far lower margins. That's a problem.
TheDarkKnight774
Member
I agree regarding digital versions of retail games. But I was pointing out sales for digital only releases which was not near as big as the start of last gen
Week over week drop for both systems
PS4:
March - 74K week
April - 50K ish week
24K drop
XB1:
March - 62K week
April - 29K week
33K drop
CassidyIzABeast
Member
You're right. I changed it to 10 million. They should be able to hit 10M before Wii Three hits
Oh I agree. I would have to agree. RIGHT NOW there really isn't much reason to buy any next gen consoles. I think this will change come this fall and early 2015 though.
5 - 8m is minimal overall. Japan gave PS3 like 12% of its userbase last gen and it'll be even less this time around. Heck PS4 will sell more in UK than in Japan, bet on it.
Iwata's very stubborn. He'll probably run Nintendo to the ground before they willingly drop out.
markedbravado
Member
The 360 and PS3 would be at or close to that point if not for the high costs at launch. Wii hit 100 million+ without much of a pulse late in its lifespan. The 360 and PS3 are from from dead. Neither is yet $199.99 at retail. Given that PS4 will be the market leader this gen, debating that is futile, I expect the PS4 to reach 100 million+ in its lifespan.
7DollarHagane
Banned
If that contraction is mainly Wii buyers who purchased Wii party, a rock band game, some licensed tripe, and nothing else after 2010, what did Sony and Microsoft really lose?
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
The problem is the Wii really colored last gen. Most 3rd parties didn't bring their games to the Wii and did just fine, and towards the latter half of the gen the Wii software sales shrank a lot. The best selling games were mostly Nintendo games.
What I am trying to say is if PS4 and Xbone can continue to track ahead of their predecessors than I think most publishers would view that as a big win.
by year 5 or 6, the average craptablet will be packing a similar punch to the PS4.
these consoles are on a clock like never before.
ReturnOfTheRAT
Member
Somehow I ended up here, so I'm going to have to figure out what's going on.